Comments on: The Abreu Rumors

By: tangotiger

tangotiger — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 16:12:37 +0000

You have to ask yourself what do RBIs represent. They are a combination of: a player’s hitting talent, the number of runners he has on base, and the timing to match these two.

wOBA, EqA, Linear Weights (LWTS), etc, all give you the player’s hitting talent. The number of runners a hitter sees on base has nothing at all to do with his talent level. So, you try to remove that aspect, and you get RE24 (which you can find at Fangraphs), which is Linear Weights by the 24 base/out states.

So, if you have RE24, then RBIs now become useless, as they contain no information at all, that you cannot find in RE24, insofar as the player’s hitting talent and his timing. RBIs are a subset of RE24.

The question then comes LWTS or RE24. You can make a case for either.

By: joser

joser — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 21:51:51 +0000

The difference is that there’s no evidence so far of interference from above (unless you count the “don’t trade Washburn for nothing” rule in place before Zduriencik even got here, which was supposedly, if misguidedly, intended to help him). And even at $93M the M’s remain well above the median of the 30 teams. So the interference remains (so far) a phenomena of previous seasons, and the currently (and temporarily) “tight” payroll is a consequence of past years’ mistakes as well. Nobody believed this team would be turned around in a single year, so already to be heralding Zduriencik as a man “done in” is more than premature. In fact he’s already done more than most people expected, especially given the constraints he inherited. Rather than being “done in” by these factors, we ultimately may be marveling at how well he succeeded in spite of them.

By: fermorules

fermorules — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 20:05:54 +0000

I’ll believe the Abreu signing when I see it.
Mister Z reminds me of Dan O’Brien, the Mariners’ GM in the early 80s. That is, a pretty sound judge of talent, but somebody ultimately done in by interference from above and a tight payroll. Does anybody remember Pat Putnam, Todd Cruz and Ron Roenicke?

By: joser

joser — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 19:44:07 +0000

That sounds strange to bordering-on-bogus to me. I don't understand how the Cubs would give up a good or at least still-salvageable prospect and take on payroll just to obtain the questionable services of any of the M's overpaid starters. Heck, the expectation was that the Cubs would be more interested in a deal that got Abreau for themselves than in doing a deal for pitching that enabled someone else to get him (though of course they got Bradley instead). I mean, the M's getting anything at all for Washburn/Silva/Batista? We'd be happy to see any of those guys off the book as pure salary dump. Getting out from under enough of their salary to make room for Abreau? Getting back a prospect? Both? That's in the land of the "garbage for gold" fantasies that we see in Rosterbation posts. So I just don't believe it, unless the M's are giving up something too. And that would be painful, because whatever they'd be giving up would be big. Clement? (No, they have Soto) Bah, I don't even want to think about it. Incomprehensible.

By: terry

terry — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 19:28:09 +0000

It would frankly blow my mind if the Cubs traded Hill for Washburn. Ignore the salary issues. Hill is better than Washburn.

Knowing it would be to make an Abreu signing possible, I just don’t see how Zduriencik could have any leverage at all when trying to dump salary.

By: et_blankenship

et_blankenship — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 18:42:21 +0000

Latest Hot Stove Rumor, from ESPN News Services:

The Mariners appear to be exploring a trade that would land lefthander Rich Hill from the Cubs and clear some payroll for free agent Bobby Abreu, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reported.

The newspaper reported that the Orioles may have the inside track on Hill, who was a top prospect before battling control issues. He won 11 games and had a 3.92 ERA in 2007 in making 32 starts, but he walked 18 batters in his first 19.2 innings and was sent to the minors.

The Mariners just completed a trade with the Cubs that landed them infielder Ronny Cedeno and lefty Garrett Olson.

If Seattle could tempt the Cubs with one of their best-paid pitchers – Miguel Batista ($9 million in 2009), Jarrod Washburn ($10.3 million) or Carlos Silva ($11) – in exchange for Hill, that would probably clear the way toward the club making Abreu, who made $16 million last year, a legitimate offer.

By: Garton

Garton — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 16:21:42 +0000

Joser, great insight on the M’s budget and what they’re paying per ticket. This is why I come here, as I had no idea. Makes more sense now why they can’t or won’t just sign Abreu. Let’s hope the M’s can find a taker for Washburn and soon.

By: BurkeForPres

BurkeForPres — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 01:34:52 +0000

[ot]

By: terry

terry — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 23:20:46 +0000

[ot]

By: terry

terry — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 23:07:52 +0000

Much like college, an opinion without evidence isnâ€™t worth much here.

I agree with the sentiment but really, these days, college is much more: “I paid at the door-where is my A?”.