Comments on: The M’s rotation, projected http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/03/09/the-ms-rotation-projected/ Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion Fri, 10 Feb 2012 01:19:43 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: philosofool http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/03/09/the-ms-rotation-projected/comment-page-1/#comment-315125 philosofool Wed, 11 Mar 2009 17:04:23 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=7455#comment-315125 <blockquote>Washburn had a 4.69 ERA in 2008 and 4.32 in 2007, not exceptional but league par last year was 4.35, so he wasn’t a complete disaster, and he won 8 or more games seven years in a row prior to that. [ERA, ERA, ERA]</blockquote> Why are you telling us about ERA? No one in these parts much cares about an ERA until you can show that it's substantial deviation from FIP and similar models of run prevention are based on something that the pitcher actually controls. If what I am saying is totally foreign to you, see the link "Evaluating Pitcher Talent" under "Reference Material" in the side bar.

Washburn had a 4.69 ERA in 2008 and 4.32 in 2007, not exceptional but league par last year was 4.35, so he wasn’t a complete disaster, and he won 8 or more games seven years in a row prior to that. [ERA, ERA, ERA]

Why are you telling us about ERA? No one in these parts much cares about an ERA until you can show that it’s substantial deviation from FIP and similar models of run prevention are based on something that the pitcher actually controls. If what I am saying is totally foreign to you, see the link “Evaluating Pitcher Talent” under “Reference Material” in the side bar.

]]> By: ppl http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/03/09/the-ms-rotation-projected/comment-page-1/#comment-315114 ppl Wed, 11 Mar 2009 06:26:22 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=7455#comment-315114 Washburn had a 4.69 ERA in 2008 and 4.32 in 2007, not exceptional but league par last year was 4.35, so he wasn't a complete disaster, and he won 8 or more games seven years in a row prior to that. He is in a contract year, he had a 3.20 ERA in 2005 and won 18 games in 2002. I would rather see RRS out there, but he will be fine in the pen for now. Silva had a 5.94 ERA in 2006, then bounced back to win 13 and post a 4.19 ERA and win a huge contract from Seattle. he was 14-8 in 2004 and had a 3.44 ERA in 2005. And as everyone who reads this blog is well aware, the improved OF Defense helps both considerably. Hopefully, Morrow is going to OK, because they really need him to get in 100+ innings as a starter this year. Lets wait and see how Silva & Washburn perform this year, before we act like it will be a replay of 2008. Washburn had a 4.69 ERA in 2008 and 4.32 in 2007, not exceptional but league par last year was 4.35, so he wasn’t a complete disaster, and he won 8 or more games seven years in a row prior to that. He is in a contract year, he had a 3.20 ERA in 2005 and won 18 games in 2002. I would rather see RRS out there, but he will be fine in the pen for now. Silva had a 5.94 ERA in 2006, then bounced back to win 13 and post a 4.19 ERA and win a huge contract from Seattle. he was 14-8 in 2004 and had a 3.44 ERA in 2005. And as everyone who reads this blog is well aware, the improved OF Defense helps both considerably. Hopefully, Morrow is going to OK, because they really need him to get in 100+ innings as a starter this year. Lets wait and see how Silva & Washburn perform this year, before we act like it will be a replay of 2008.

]]> By: ppl http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/03/09/the-ms-rotation-projected/comment-page-1/#comment-315113 ppl Wed, 11 Mar 2009 06:26:18 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=7455#comment-315113 Washburn had a 4.69 ERA in 2008 and 4.32 in 2007, not exceptional but league par last year was 4.35, so he wasn't a complete disaster, and he won 8 or more games seven years in a row prior to that. He is in a contract year, he had a 3.20 ERA in 2005 and won 18 games in 2002. I would rather see RRS out there, but he will be fine in the pen for now. Silva had a 5.94 ERA in 2006, then bounced back to win 13 and post a 4.19 ERA and win a huge contract from Seattle. he was 14-8 in 2004 and had a 3.44 ERA in 2005. And as everyone who reads this blog is well aware, the improved OF Defense helps both considerably. Hopefully, Morrow is going to OK, because they really need him to get in 100+ innings as a starter this year. Lets wait and see how Silva & Washburn perform this year, before we act like it will be a replay of 2008. Washburn had a 4.69 ERA in 2008 and 4.32 in 2007, not exceptional but league par last year was 4.35, so he wasn’t a complete disaster, and he won 8 or more games seven years in a row prior to that. He is in a contract year, he had a 3.20 ERA in 2005 and won 18 games in 2002. I would rather see RRS out there, but he will be fine in the pen for now. Silva had a 5.94 ERA in 2006, then bounced back to win 13 and post a 4.19 ERA and win a huge contract from Seattle. he was 14-8 in 2004 and had a 3.44 ERA in 2005. And as everyone who reads this blog is well aware, the improved OF Defense helps both considerably. Hopefully, Morrow is going to OK, because they really need him to get in 100+ innings as a starter this year. Lets wait and see how Silva & Washburn perform this year, before we act like it will be a replay of 2008.

]]> By: BrianV http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/03/09/the-ms-rotation-projected/comment-page-1/#comment-315051 BrianV Tue, 10 Mar 2009 19:19:24 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=7455#comment-315051 Is the benefit of RRS over Washburn worth the gamble that Washburn as a starter behind a better defense makes him somewhat attractive as trade bait? Is the benefit of RRS over Washburn worth the gamble that Washburn as a starter behind a better defense makes him somewhat attractive as trade bait?

]]> By: gwangung http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/03/09/the-ms-rotation-projected/comment-page-1/#comment-315050 gwangung Tue, 10 Mar 2009 19:15:54 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=7455#comment-315050 Which is why you do need more than five people you think can be starters.... (That's one thing Bavasi was right about....) Which is why you do need more than five people you think can be starters….

(That’s one thing Bavasi was right about….)

]]> By: ThundaPC http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/03/09/the-ms-rotation-projected/comment-page-1/#comment-315049 ThundaPC Tue, 10 Mar 2009 19:09:13 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=7455#comment-315049 <a href="http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mariners/2009/03/10/brandon_morrow_still_having_ar.html" rel="nofollow">Larry Stone reports not the best of news for Brandon Morrow</a>. <blockquote>"It didn't feel as good as I thought it would,'' Morrow said. "It felt better than it did last week, but it's just frustrating it didn't feel as good as I had hoped." ... "I mean, I don't know what else to say,'' he said. "That's what they've said, and that's what it feels like -- tight muscles. Inflamed, and tight."</blockquote> Trying to start RRS instead of Silva might be going a bit overboard. Might cause for a marginal improvement at best but it doesn't strike me as worth the trouble. I don't like Silva but he seems like a pretty good bet to bounce back, especially with improved defense. Now Morrow on the other hand....Yea, he looks nice in the middle of the rotation but these recent developments no doubt make it more likely that Morrow is going to be monitored with extreme caution. If RRS is going to be seeing any rotation action it will most likely be spot-starting for Morrow during the regular season. Larry Stone reports not the best of news for Brandon Morrow.

“It didn’t feel as good as I thought it would,” Morrow said. “It felt better than it did last week, but it’s just frustrating it didn’t feel as good as I had hoped.”

…

“I mean, I don’t know what else to say,” he said. “That’s what they’ve said, and that’s what it feels like — tight muscles. Inflamed, and tight.”

Trying to start RRS instead of Silva might be going a bit overboard. Might cause for a marginal improvement at best but it doesn’t strike me as worth the trouble. I don’t like Silva but he seems like a pretty good bet to bounce back, especially with improved defense.

Now Morrow on the other hand….Yea, he looks nice in the middle of the rotation but these recent developments no doubt make it more likely that Morrow is going to be monitored with extreme caution. If RRS is going to be seeing any rotation action it will most likely be spot-starting for Morrow during the regular season.

]]> By: philosofool http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/03/09/the-ms-rotation-projected/comment-page-1/#comment-315048 philosofool Tue, 10 Mar 2009 18:52:22 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=7455#comment-315048 <blockquote>Silva had a 4.63 FIP last year. You realize that all these “cut him, he’s useless” comments are simply based his ‘08 results, right?</blockquote> I'll admit that I'm probably over emphasizing his actual ERA, but he's not a good pitcher. FIP is generous with Silva because it doesn't take into account that his pitch to contact skills are pitch to line drive skills. His tRA was 5.9, his tRA* 5.4 and that lies squarely between with 2006 and 2007 tRA*, which means that it's probably a good estimate of his true talent. 5.4 tRA is basically replacement level. So, whatever the reasons behind the assessment, the conclusion looks like it's pretty sound. Silva is a replacement level pitcher. I say we start RRS and see if he can manifest better than replacement level skill rather than going with the known replacement level quantity that is Carlos Silva. <a href="http://www.statcorner.com/pitcherSP.php?id=400067&team=SEA&year=2008&leag=A_L" rel="nofollow">Carlos Silva</a> at statscorner.

Silva had a 4.63 FIP last year. You realize that all these “cut him, he’s useless” comments are simply based his ‘08 results, right?

I’ll admit that I’m probably over emphasizing his actual ERA, but he’s not a good pitcher. FIP is generous with Silva because it doesn’t take into account that his pitch to contact skills are pitch to line drive skills. His tRA was 5.9, his tRA* 5.4 and that lies squarely between with 2006 and 2007 tRA*, which means that it’s probably a good estimate of his true talent. 5.4 tRA is basically replacement level. So, whatever the reasons behind the assessment, the conclusion looks like it’s pretty sound. Silva is a replacement level pitcher. I say we start RRS and see if he can manifest better than replacement level skill rather than going with the known replacement level quantity that is Carlos Silva.
Carlos Silva at statscorner.

]]> By: Tek Jansen http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/03/09/the-ms-rotation-projected/comment-page-1/#comment-315047 Tek Jansen Tue, 10 Mar 2009 18:06:17 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=7455#comment-315047 Felix and RRS are/were at different developmental stages. RRS isn't going to learn anything or improvie by being sent to the minors. And having him work some relief for a few months won't retard his development as a starter. He is starting in spring training, and he will be starting soon enough once the season starts. I doubt that 2009 will be a repeat of 2003, when the original five starters made all 162 starts. Felix and RRS are/were at different developmental stages. RRS isn’t going to learn anything or improvie by being sent to the minors. And having him work some relief for a few months won’t retard his development as a starter. He is starting in spring training, and he will be starting soon enough once the season starts. I doubt that 2009 will be a repeat of 2003, when the original five starters made all 162 starts.

]]> By: Soonerman22 http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/03/09/the-ms-rotation-projected/comment-page-1/#comment-315046 Soonerman22 Tue, 10 Mar 2009 17:54:29 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=7455#comment-315046 Felix was one of our 12 best pitchers a few years ago and we didn't put him in the rotation. I think there is a difference between 12 best pitchers and 5 best starters (Which Silva and Washburn aren't but will still make it because of there contracts) and 7 best relievers/ "Role Pitchers". (Which Batista isn't but he has the contract) All I am saying is that if the team sees RRS as a starter in the future isn't in the teams best interest to start developing him as a starter? The fall of 2009 can't come fast enough and we will be rid of Wash and Batista!!! Felix was one of our 12 best pitchers a few years ago and we didn’t put him in the rotation. I think there is a difference between 12 best pitchers and 5 best starters (Which Silva and Washburn aren’t but will still make it because of there contracts) and 7 best relievers/ “Role Pitchers”. (Which Batista isn’t but he has the contract)

All I am saying is that if the team sees RRS as a starter in the future isn’t in the teams best interest to start developing him as a starter?

The fall of 2009 can’t come fast enough and we will be rid of Wash and Batista!!!

]]> By: msb http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/03/09/the-ms-rotation-projected/comment-page-1/#comment-315043 msb Tue, 10 Mar 2009 16:47:29 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=7455#comment-315043 and Zduriencik grasps the concept of sunk cost. and Zduriencik grasps the concept of sunk cost.

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