The folks that run this blog just can’t win. When they state an unpopular opinion and are proven right, they never have anyone who disagreed come back and acknowledge that. When they’re realistic about the limitations of the team, they’re accused of excessive negativity, of being “haters” or somehow wanting the team to fail.

And now, when they express a little optimism, they’re told to “calm down.”

Sometimes I wonder why they bother. (And then I remember: they’re fans.)

(FWIW, I think the brain trust is building for 2010-11 too; but clearly they’re also trying to balance that with winning now and turning the fanbase around — which, for their employers, is just as important. Hence the Griffey signing.)

No, Dave’s post doesn’t assume that. It assume that the remaining 153 games are as difficult as the whole 162 games (which they are).

Of course, the assumption you state implies that the first nine games are also as difficult as the whole 162 games, and hence as the remaining 152 games.

-fairweatherfan

“To be fair, Dave’s post is not entirely accurate unless you assume that the competition faced to date is comparable to the overall level of competition that you anticipated that they would face throughout the season”

-IMFinksPa

No, Dave’s post doesn’t assume that. It assume that the remaining 153 games are as difficult as the whole 162 games (which they are). The post assumes nothing about the first nine games and gives them no consideration going forward. Dave’s post is making the same prediction he made before the season except now assuming that the M’s play a 153 game season and start off with a record of 7-2.

But I don’t understand why we shouldn’t look at the strength of schedule first, before determining that we’re 3 games ahead of where we thought we would be.

So let’s look at strength of schedule. In April, the Mariners face the following:

The 2008
AL West Champs
AL Central Champs
AL Central Runners Up
AL East Champs and AL Pennant Winners

It’s not all A’s and Tigers. Though let’s acknowledge that the Tigers currently are tied for first in their division.

As it turns out, the teams we’ve beaten so far all have sub .500 records. Why is that? At least part of that is because the 2009 Mariners are handing out beatings like Halloween candy.

NOBODY thought the M’s would finish April above .500 and somehow, they’re a 5-8 run away from making that a reality. You’d better believe this team is 3 games ahead of where we thought they would be.

Saying, before the season starts, that the team will finish 81 and 81, regardless of how you get there, isn’t based on a sample of this team’s past performance. Once you have an adequate sample of the team’s performance, then you can apply Dave’s math. If the team goes .500 through the first 80 games, adding 3 wins to the predicted win total after a 6 game streak in August seems to work better.