Jeff Clement is older than Jose Lopez, and still doesn’t have a roster spot on a MLB team, after being a first round draft pick in 2005 justlike Trot Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun (who’ve all gotten regular jobs on MLB teams and were drafted before and after him). He’ll turn 26 this August, so he’s not a particularly young player, either, like, say, Cameron Maybin- to give you an idea, Edgar spent a big chunk of HIS age 26 year on the M’s roster, and he’s a very good example of someone who started his career very late by MLB standard. Oh, and Clement’s had multiple knee surgeries and plays a position (poorly) that is notoriously hard on knees and ages players prematurely.

I’m not saying Clement won’t go on to a decent MLB career (I think he’s a ~league average hitter at 1B/DH today, maybe a touch better), but I’d say the odds are very high that if he does, it’s as a ~league average hitting 1B/DH, not as a catcher, and the M’s have a guy (Mike Carp) who’s a couple years younger than Clement, not that far behind Clement as a hitter at a similar age, without being needed to be converted to a new defensive position- so it’s not even all that clear that Clement is the best 1B prospect in the organization at this point, and the M’s have a logjam of players blocking Clement for 2009 (Branyan, Griffey, Wlad and Shelton).

That’s why I think Clement will end up as part of a trade; because his path through the organization is murky at best, and he probably has more value to another team than the Mariners. That doesn’t mean he has no value, but it’s unlikely he realizes it on this team catching… and yeah, that makes him a busted prospect compared to what he was visualized as even a year or two ago.

Absolutely, but that shows he’s definitely inferior to Johnson in the front office’s thinking at present. He’s not just in the minors because he needs a chance to play, but because the team figures it has better options. Even though Johnson doesn’t have nearly the same potential as a hitter.