fantasy baseball ‘experts’

You made a funny.

I just hope the M’s don’t destroy him, which is one reason I am eagerly waiting for the return of Shawn Kelley, and/or Josh Fields to arrive.

I surely don’t think you can put him in the “bullpen” category: Link

John Smoltz, who is scheduled to make his next start Thursday, either for the Red Sox or Pawtucket Red Sox, said that he offered to pitch out of the bullpen, but the Red Sox pushed back on the idea. “I threw it out there, but they said it was completely out of the question. They basically told me I’ve done everything they asked me to do, and preparing to start is something I’m comfortable with.”

but they also have more save opportunities because their anemic bats

Well said, Joser. This is also the retort to many fantasy baseball ‘experts’ who advise staying away from closers on bad teams because they won’t get many save opportunities.

Aardsma has been especially impressive when one considers the M’s would likely be in first place if he was closing all year instead of the failed Morrow debacle.

Mark Lowe has more blown saves (3) than Morrow (2). Or pick any two of Batista, Kelley, Corcoran, Jakubauskas, White, or (yes) Aardsma, all of whom have one. There’s a lot to dislike about the Morrow situation, but it’s hardly the only reason the M’s are two games out.

As I noted in a comment over at Fangraphs, the M’s have a higher rate of blown saves than some other teams, but they also have more save opportunities because their anemic bats mean almost every win is a save situation. They just don’t blow out other teams, so there are a lot of no-room-for-error 9th innings. Already the Mariners have played in 31 one-run games (18-13 record) vs only 16 five-plus run games (7-9 record). Compare that to a team like the Red Sox: just 20 one-run games (11-9 record) vs 21 five-plus run games (14-7 record). The RedSox have seven more wins than the M’s but two fewer saves; their bullpen has 19 saves in 26 opportunities vs 21 in 32 for the M’s. And only two of those 11 (eleven!) blown saves belong to Morrow.

So if a half year of Bedard is worth Brignac, would we make the same deal for Aardsma?

We’d try, but Tampa probably wouldn’t go for it. Their need for a high-end starter is much higher than for a high-end reliever, so they would be very unlikely to part with Brignac for Aardsma.

Random side note, I called into Brock and Salk a few minutes ago to decry the Pierre trade and to suggest Blake DeWitt as a target instead. The resulting conversation and debate with Salk about Pierre’s usefulness left Brock half-convinced that I was Dave Couldn’t help but chuckle when I flipped my radio back on in time to hear him say that.

This Wednesday at noon (i think it was), JZ will be answering fan questions on mlb.com.

That statement takes me to a sad and terrible place. Morrow as well I suspect.