Comments on: Hurry Back, Adrian

By: joser

joser — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 04:03:07 +0000

Novice question here, but I had been wondering what the â€œweightingâ€ was in the â€œwOBAâ€. Based on Daveâ€™s last post, Iâ€™m now guessing that â€œweightingâ€ is the denominator (ie 1.15 to 1.25). Is that right? Or is there some other â€œweightingâ€ involved?

All of the outcomes of a player's AB are weighted when they are added together. OPS weights them all the same by just counting bases -- a double is worth twice as much as a single and half as much as a home run, a walk is the same as a single, etc -- whereas wOBA uses things like run expectancy to weight them more appropriately (that is, it uses weights derived experientially rather than convenient, but arbitrary, integers). Dave walked through the process prior to the 2008 season; if you just want to see the formula Tango has it here (with a link to his complete explanation).

By: Quancy12

Quancy12 — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 02:31:17 +0000

This is good news! And yes we need to resign Beltre, no options, at this moment, in the minors and Woodward and Hannahan are not the long term answer.

By: profmac

profmac — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 23:26:48 +0000

So, what’s going to happen with Beltre in terms of an extension for next year?

By: Breadbaker

Breadbaker — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 23:19:08 +0000

Statistics can’t show us pain, but the effects of pain can show up in the statistics. If the scar tissue was growing in Adrian’s left shoulder during the entire season, and he had–as he clearly did–batting statistics that were far below his projections, the pain is a plausible thesis for why. Thus, one can be optimistic that his batting upon return, recognizing that being out for two months and the loss of muscle mass, etc. through the surgery, will have their own effect, will return closer to his norms. Me, I’ll take a small sample size anomaly for five weeks of the Beltre of his last year in LA.

By: msb

msb — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 23:15:55 +0000

hey, look! baseball!

By: diderot

diderot — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 22:53:31 +0000

That should have been UZR/150.

By: diderot

diderot — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 22:46:26 +0000

Given the high level of statistical expertise in this thread, I’m wondering if someone can answer a related defensive question for me.
Currently, we rank #1 in the AL in pitcher BABIP, #1 in strand rate, and #1 in the difference between ERA and FIP. Obviously, the key reason is excellent defense.
But is there a way to determine how much of that might also be related to luck? In other words, if the team UZR/100 (or whatever other measurement is appropriate) were to remain exactly the same for the rest of the year, could we expect the same performance in BABIP, strand, ERA/FIP,,,or is some (negative) regression to the mean to be expected?
Thanks.

By: AFanOfTheSite

AFanOfTheSite — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 22:39:43 +0000

Novice question here, but I had been wondering what the “weighting” was in the “wOBA”. Based on Dave’s last post, I’m now guessing that “weighting” is the denominator (ie 1.15 to 1.25).

Is that right? Or is there some other “weighting” involved?

Thanks!

By: Dave

Dave — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 22:23:01 +0000

The divisor in wOBA changes every year, because wOBA is scaled to match league OBP, and that varies from year to year. It’s usually in the 1.15 to 1.25 range. I use 1.2 because it’s close enough every year and makes two points of wOBA = 1 run per 600 PA.

By: MsofEnchantment

MsofEnchantment — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 22:01:59 +0000

I know adding Beltre and potentially a more offensively gifted SS doesn’t sound like much, but just imagine replacing Cedeno and Hannahan in the lineup. It may not be the Yankees lineup, but closing the black hole at the bottom of the order makes our odds of baseball in October so much more appealing. The difference between Langerhans and Johjima/Johnson in the 8 and 9 hole vs. Hannahan (God bless his defense) and Cedeno is night and day.