Comments on: Situational hitting is just hitting

By: Manzanillos Cup

Manzanillos Cup — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 21:20:34 +0000

Geoff chimes in…

Hey, look! When you make sample sizes smaller, you get more variation! Which of course has nothing to do with luck, and everything to do with the Mariners “altering their approach” in clutch situations.

By: terry

terry — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 18:43:20 +0000

Gang way! Round two is in the loop!

Geoff chimes in on the issue again with a second post. Basically his argument is "but if you slice the season into even smaller samples, the differences get even bigger and more telling!".

By: Pete Livengood

Pete Livengood — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 18:08:17 +0000

mw3 wrote:

Joe Carter had a .305 career OBP, he drove in well over 1,000 runs in his career. Joe Carter was a better hitter when men were on base, itâ€™s a fact, look it up.

I did look it up, and to prove Derek's point (again), here are a couple of links: Joe Carter's batting splits with bases occupied. Basically, although most of these stats come from samples too small to be very telling, the difference in Carter's performance with runners on compared to his overall stats might show a 4-10% bump (which, as Derek notes, is pretty standard). Joe Carter's "Clutch" Stats. A closer look reveals that, contrary to your suggestion, Carter actually slightly underperformed (relative to his overall performance) in "clutch" situations.

By: terry

terry — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 16:44:07 +0000

Gang way! Round two is in the loop!

By: Ralph_Malph

Ralph_Malph — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 16:00:53 +0000

I never understood, if a guy like Joe Carter could focus more or bear down under pressure or whatever the line is, why wasn’t he focusing the rest of the time? Shouldn’t you be able to put in your maximum effort whenever you’re at the plate? Why would we admire a guy who can only focus his concentration when he’s got men on base, but eases up the rest of the time?

What makes a great “clutch hitter” great is that he hits just as well when there are men on base. It’s not about hitting better when you’re under pressure — it’s about not succumbing to the pressure.

Me, on the other hand, I wilt under pressure. That’s one of several (many) reasons why I didn’t play professional baseball.

By: wabbles

wabbles — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 07:56:46 +0000

As I understand the game of baseball, the ONLY “situation” where hitting is important is when you are standing in the batter’s box with a bat in your hand.
We’ve all seen the classic Kirk Gibson homer off Dennis Eckersley in the 1988 World Series. He hit that homer not because he was good under pressure or a clutch hitter or whatever.
If you watch the video, you’ll see Gibson step out of the batter’s box with the count at 3-2. He remembered the scouting report that Eckersley always threw a backdoor slider on that count.
So Gibson stepped back into the box, looked for the backdoor slider and hit it out of the park. That’s what good hitters do.
There’s no voodoo here.

By: Sidi

Sidi — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 07:45:17 +0000

Scratch the last, was off by a line. Ignoring the “2 out” crap it’s only .064 OPS, worse than average.

By: Sidi

Sidi — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 07:43:18 +0000

Ok, just checked. .130 points of OPS career, haven’t looked at more advanced metrics. Pretty good improvement, but probably not statistically significant over the .79 cited above.

By: Sidi

Sidi — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 07:38:35 +0000

And actually, I don’t think Ichiro’s career stats even bear him out as being great with runners on. Early on in his career I think he was very positive, and I always thought his style should lend itself to the situation.

But I don’t think the numbers have gone that way. I would have to actually check to be sure though.

By: Sidi

Sidi — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 07:31:36 +0000

DMZ his argument is actually right technically.

“Some guys just hit better when there is an RBI opportunity. I donâ€™t know if it is because they are more focused or some other reason but it is the case with some players.”

A majority of players hit better with runners in scoring position, and that would qualify as “some”. Including most of the guys classified as clutch hitters. Therefore, clutch hitters must exist…like Santa Claus and the happy ending.

If there are runners on the pitcher is probably struggling, and the infield is probably playing close to the bags…that means it’s easier to hit. End. As henryv noted there might be players whose game is built to exploit such a situation, like Ichiro, but it isn’t going to be nearly as big of a factor as facing a pitcher who just put several guys on.