The M’s probability is about 0.1%.

No, actually, it’s 1.2% according to baseballprospectus.com and .7% according to coolstandings.com

do you really want Saunders to pull a Balentien and wildly try and hit everything out of the ballpark? Or since he has found a way to get on base, something that many of the Mariners have struggled with.. why the hell would you quibble about that?

Or to put it another way – a bunt base hit > a walk (because there’s a chance of an errant throw that could lead to an error)… Everyone everywhere loves BB and OBP as a way to get on base… the Mariners obviously with their defense oriented approach are going a different direction… so why is there any resistance to this?

Of course, if his bunting rate becomes less successful or if he starts laying down sacrifice bunts instead of bunt base hits, then I’ll jump aboard the power train… but until the base hit bunting train stops… I’ll keep riding

In 2009 we debate whether the Rorschach image resembles an Arabian or Bactrian camel.

This is a good problem to have.

I like to think of it as having something constructive to nag about as opposed to having to repeat Carthago delenda est every we type on our keyboards.

This is a good problem to have.

So far, zero people have suggested that so I’m guessing that the answer to your question is no. He doesn’t need to be 75% successful for this to be a good strategy in high-leverage situations where he might not fare well against a pitcher by swinging away.

If he picks his spots, he could hit for a very high percentage on bunts. Joe Mauer, for example, is 19 for 29 on bunt hits in his career, and Saunders is probably a lot faster than Mauer. If you want to look at someone really high volume, Juan Pierre is at about 161 for 448 in his career, about 36%.

So if Saunders is reasonably selective, it seems possible that he could hit safely on something like 40% of his bunts while he is young and fast, maybe better. He’s got a ZiPS-projected OBP of .301 for the rest of the season and assuming a typical platoon split, he’d be making outs even more often against lefties.

The question here is whether or not Saunders should change his approach so far, and I personally don’t see anything wrong with it to this point. If he starts bunting against Sidney Ponson in blowouts, then I could see the need for a change.

Sanders’ first bunt hit was against Ricky Romero (a left-handed pitcher), leading off the 5th inning, Mariners down 2-3, top of the order coming up behind him. In his first AB that day, he hit into a DP. That seems like a reasonable bunt for him, because it’s probably a tough match-up for him and getting on base there helps the team.

Saunders’ second bunt hit was against Roy Halladay, leading off the bottom of the 7th, Mariners down 1-2, top of the order coming up behind him. In his first two AB, Saunders struck out swinging and lined out to CF. That also seems like a pretty good choice to bunt there. Yeah, you want to work on power, but you probably want to start against the sub-Halladays of the world.

Saunders’ third bunt hit was against John Bale (a left-handed pitcher), Mariners down 4-5, leading off the 6th inning, top of the order coming up behind him.

His fourth bunt hit was against Ron Mahay (a left-handed pitcher), tied 6-6, 7th inning, runner on first base, no outs, top of the order behind him.

Saunders’ fifth bunt hit was against John Danks (a left-handed pitcher), tied 0-0 in the bottom of the 3rd, leading off the inning with the top of the order behind him. A little early in the game, but again, he’s leading off an inning facing a LHP.

Saunders’ bunt hit yesterday was against Brett Anderson (a left-handed pitcher), tied 0-0 in the bottom of the 3rd, one out with the bases empty.

(I’m not sure when his failures have been, though one of them seems to be Aug. 22nd, tied in the 9th inning against the Indians and that may have been ordered as a sac, since Wilson was on first.)

So all of Saunders’ successes so far have been against left-handed pitchers and Roy Halladay. They’ve all been in tied or one-run games. Four of the six have been leading off the inning. Only one of them has been with a runner on base (so he’s rarely giving up power in a situation where power is most helpful.)

I don’t think that Saunders has the luxury of swinging away in all of those situations. Yes, the Mariners believe in him, but he doesn’t really know how much. Especially with Langerhans around as a legit option, Saunders probably feels the need to perform or ride the pine. Against that set of pitchers, Saunders is probably likely to go 1-6 or so, which would have him hitting .190 and in danger of getting many fewer chances to work on his power game. (I know it’s a small sample size, and you know it’s a small sample size, but Sanders can’t count on Wak to keep putting his name in the lineup if he’s below the Mendoza line.) Another way of stating this, I suppose, is that every time he bunts, he misses one opportunity to work on hitting for power, but every game he sits, he misses 3-4 chances to work on hitting for power. He’s got to do what he can to stay in the lineup.

Yes, Wak could tell him that he doesn’t have to bunt for hits in those situations, but Wak probably feels a responsibility to try to win games, too, and in those situations, against that set of pitchers, if Saunders can get a single at even a 35-45% rate, he’s helping the team out.

I think that Saunders’ bunt attempt rate will probably go down, but that’s because just by chance he’ll probably not find himself leading off so many innings against LHP in one-run games. One thing that might help is to not hit him back-to-back with Ichiro (and definitely not line him up with Ichiro and Branyan), which could minimize the number of times he winds up facing a LOOGY.

unlikely”. The 2004 Astros were 7 games back in the wildcard with 3 teams to catch on August 26. Their playoff chances (according to coolstandings.com) were 0.6%.

The M’s probability is about 0.1%.

And that is with a LOT of things falling our way early in the season.

Soo, your saying there is a chance! (a la Jim Carrey in Dumb and Dumber)