1. Brad Nelson is more suited to DH than 1B.
2. Shelton has had a better season in Tacoma than Carp: .310/.391/.505 vs. Carp’s .271/.372/.446
3. LaHair is not a competent outfielder, and probably has no future in the organization.

I like Carp plenty well – maybe too well if Dave’s right that his swing won’t allow him to grow into more HR power. The problem with these comparisons is that most of these guys showed huge power/contact/whatever earlier. You can’t just pick and choose the guys worst MiLB performance. I can make Carp look average by taking the same guys in AA:

Derrek Lee .280/.360/.570 (34 HRs at age 20!)
Youk .327/.487/.465
Morales .306/.349/.530
Gonzalez .266/.344/.437 (not great, but he was 20)

Yes, these guys looked better in their first taste of AAA, but these guys showed MLB skills in AA, where Carp stumbled initially in AA, then had a nice rebound last year. I don’t think Carp’s bad because of this, but looking at the MiLB record in total shows that all four of these guys were far, far better prospects than Carp.

With respect to the Adam LaRoche comparison, I’m no scout but I think you may well be underselling Carp.

In his age 22 season, Carp has hit .818 OPS/.175 ISO in his first exposure to AAA.

LaRoche’s age 22 season was in AA (not AAA) where he hit .773 OPS/.121 ISO.

I found it interesting to compare Carp to the minor league performances of other 1B currently in the majors.

Youkilis — age 25 season — AAA — .800 OPS/.152 ISO

K. Morales — age 23 season — AAA — .878 OPS/.200 ISO

Derek Lee — age 25 season — AAA — .778 OPS/.145 ISO

Adrian Gonzalez — age 22 season — AAA — .823 OPS/.153 ISO

It may be coincidence, but Carp’s season compares well to the above All-Stars. Whether Carp is the best option next year is I agree debatable, but the Mariners may very well have much more of an asset here in the long-run than you’re giving them credit for.

A comparable player that I can think of- if all current projections of his abilities round off and become true, and he makes no gigantic strides defensively- would probably be Jeff Conine.

With a little more power and a little less defense. Conine was no great shakes at first, but he never embarrassed, either.

Some thoughts on Branyan/Carp: There’s a real possibility that Branyan simply won’t come back. Herniated disks- like many back-related injuries- are really tricky things, and they have a way of flaring up and never disappearing completely.

I’d hate to see this happen, but I think that Zduriencik had best have a plan that calls for him not having Branyan on the team next year.

If that winds up being the case, I hope we wind up with Nick Johnson and/or Gregg Zaun as free agents. I’ve had them earmarked as players I want to see wearing an M’s uniform for years.

But with only about $17-18 million to spend, well…tough to swing that and a #2 starter as well.

As far as Mike Carp goes, I like the idea of him being on our bench in the long run. But, it’s tough to overlook the fact that one transposition of his last name, and you’ve got a common slang word for excrement.

If he’s a starter for us, I’m always gonna be pining for us to find someone else.

And waiting with bated breath for a Richard Poythress, Jharmidy DeJesus or somebody else who’s likely to be better.

“It is interesting how so many commenters are just penciling Branyan into next years lineup.”

Well, it’s certainly no given, but it could very well be likely.

I’ll state my case.

1. He’s fills a Mariners need for a 1B/DH with middle of the order offensive potential.

2. He’s greatful to the Mariners for giving him his first real opportunity to play and by all reports would love to come back.

3. He isn’t going to make much in free agency.

He’ll be competing with guys like Jim Thome, Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Carlos Delgado, Vladimir Guerrero, Nick Johnson, Nomar Garciaparra, Adam LaRoche… Suffice to say the list of “DH/1B” free agents is not a short one, and there aren’t that many starting jobs available, or many teams that would take him over more established bats.

I’d say short of this back-injury being career ending, there’s probably an 80% chance Branyan is back in the blue and teal for at least one more year.

No. Wherever you got this crazy idea that Raben has 80 power, lose it.

Whoa… Guess his power was greatly exaggerated then… So who does he compare to then?

In summation, counting on Branyan to be the type of player the M’s need next year is very similar to counting on Carp. Maybe even riskier.

Teams are getting smarter and locking up their talented players earlier for longer on the cheap.

There just aren’t that many available in free-agency, which drives up the price of the few who are, and the Mariners don’t really have the farm system to acquire a “name” either.

I suppose our best bet is that Jack Zduriencik puts back on his lucky trade hat and we get another Gutierrez dropped in our laps.

No. Wherever you got this crazy idea that Raben has 80 power, lose it.

I’d imagine LF would be easier to fill than 1B just eyeballing Cot’s, and DH would as well. 3B may be tougher, but it’s close – if you thought you could get Beltre or Figgins, that changes things.

LF is a non-starter. With Saunders and Langerhans around for 2010 and Ackley for 2011, you’d be limited in the kind of player you could bring in, and the cost wouldn’t be enough to justify the difference. There’s no way you choose Carp over Saunders as the young, below average guy you want on this team next year.