Comments on: Gutierrez’s Defense

By: Adam B.

Adam B. — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 17:00:49 +0000

Gutierrez being due for a regression is one of the reasons I’m worried about this team potentially regressing next year.

Gutierrez will continue to be a positive contributer, but this team needs more offensive contributions to make up for the almost certain regression in defense due to Gutierrez and Beltre’s probable departure.

The Mariners will need youngsters like Saunders and Moore to hit the ground running and a free agent to have a quality season if they want to do more then tread water.

By: mymrbig

mymrbig — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 15:34:45 +0000

Thanks Dave “Debbie Downer” Cameron, for these depressing words of insight! Next your going to tell me that RRS isn’t this good and that Aardsma’s HR/FB will regress.

Expecting Gutierrez to do better than this is like saying that Felix can go 25-0 or Ichiro can hit .450

Dave, have you taught yourself nothing?!? Felix could pitch better and go 0-25 (with 9 complete game shut-out no decisions!). Maybe Ichiro couldn’t hit .450, but AVG is an overrated stat that has lots year-to-year fluctuation. Get with it man!

In all seriousness, to me there are few greater baseball-related pleasures than watching replays of some of Gutierrez’s catches this year. Simply amazing.

By: dks

dks — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 05:20:18 +0000

Hmm — something’s fishy about the DG numbers on Fangraphs. I went to compute DG/9 innings, i.e. who has gotten the most opportunities, and the top 15 player-seasons were all from 2009. Is DG showing projected DG through the end of the season rather than just current DG? Did Fangraphs change the methodology somehow?

By: dks

dks — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 05:05:11 +0000

Ok, I shoved all the data off Fangraphs into a spreadsheet and computed Range Runs/150, since Dave was specifically talking about range. Counting only players with > 75 DG (~30 player-seasons per year), FG is only the 10th best since 2004:

Name Year Team Pos G Inn PO A E DP DG exO ARM RngR ErrR UZR UZR/150 RngR/150 Corey Patterson 2004 Cubs CF 157 1367.2 324 8 1 5 106 271 3.7 20.3 0.7 24.6 33.8 28.73 Andruw Jones 2005 Braves CF 159 1366.1 365 11 2 1 124 316 7.7 21.7 0.6 30 34.7 26.25 Coco Crisp 2007 Red Sox CF 144 1216.1 408 7 1 4 157 397 -2.4 25.6 1.2 24.4 22.4 24.46 Alfredo Amezaga 2007 Marlins CF 87 643.2 208 8 5 1 78 201 5.4 12.6 -1.2 16.9 32.1 24.23 Andruw Jones 2003 Braves CF 155 1329 390 8 3 1 135 342 -0.8 21.6 0 20.9 23.4 24.00 Nook Logan 2005 Tigers CF 123 874.1 282 3 6 2 91 231 -1.8 14.4 -0.7 12 20.2 23.74 Andruw Jones 2004 Braves CF 154 1347 389 10 3 2 134 340 5 20.8 0.7 26.5 28 23.28 Juan Pierre 2002 Rockies CF 149 1197.2 363 2 2 1 145 364 -6.7 21.1 1 15.3 16.6 21.83 Franklin Gutierrez 2009 Mariners CF 131 1156.1 383 4 7 0 184 356 0.2 24.8 -2.4 22.6 18.5 20.22

By: dks

dks — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 04:21:54 +0000

Gutierrez has caught so many balls this season that heâ€™s at 184 defensive games. Part of that is his range, part of that is the pitching staff, and part of that is the park. .

Fangraphs seems to say that Defensive Games isn’t affected by a player’s range:

DG (defensive games): The number of outs made by an average fielder at his position given the exact distribution of balls in play for that player divided by the number of outs an average player at that position makes per game.

So part of Gutierrez exceptional season is just a ton of opportunities (and durability, of course). He’s accumulated 184 DG while playing in 131 actual games — a nice 40% bonus in opportunities.

Next year Safeco’s outfield will still be large, the Mariners will still have a ton of flyball pitchers, so he may well put up another large number.

Going by UZR/150, Gutierrez is “only” at 18.5 — I counted 10 player-seasons better than that since 2002 on Fangraphs, headlined by Corey Patterson in 2004 with 33.8 (but only 106 DG, and thus 24.6 UZR).

By: Dave

Dave — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 02:04:09 +0000

The 150 denominator is not games played, but “defensive games”, which is based on the number of opportunities a fielder has. If he plays a game but doesn’t have a ball hit at him the whole day, there’s no reason to dock him for that.

Gutierrez has caught so many balls this season that he’s at 184 defensive games. Part of that is his range, part of that is the pitching staff, and part of that is the park. .

By: dchappelle

dchappelle — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 01:56:40 +0000

Probably a dumb question, but on Fangraphs how does Gutierrez have a lower UZR/150 than outright UZR after having played in only 130 games?

By: Scottdids

Scottdids — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 01:20:48 +0000

I’m praying for Zduriencik to flip Lopez. If anyone screams “trade me”, its him. He has some great shiny stats. As to what he brings back, thats for Jack to decide whats best. Aardsma ranks a high 2nd on that list.

By: Breadbaker

Breadbaker — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 00:54:58 +0000

Of course, this season’s 3B total numbers aren’t all Beltre by a long shot, so there is a potential for an improvement there. C can improve if Kenji is replaced by Adam Moore and Rob Johnson becomes a once a week starter for Felix. LF can certainly improve in a number of ways.

The key, though, is 2B. Between all the outs he expends and his atrocious defense, it should be possible for Zduriencik to flip Lopez in a deal that improves the team by selling high (“new career high in home runs!”) and then finding someone who can hit and has range and dexterity in the field.

By: Scottdids

Scottdids — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 23:56:13 +0000

Is anyone else scared that next season’s roster will be less effective than this years? We have guys like Gutierrez and Lopez likely heading for regression, Branyan and Beltre are free agents. How much longer can Ichiro produce at his rate?

The DH position will certainly be upgraded (it can’t get much worse). But with serious questions in LF and C, and downgrades at a lot of other places, I’m not looking towards the offseason with much hope.

Of course, then I remember who’s in charge now. And it makes me feel a lot better.