The so-called “Pythagorean” method is a second-order predictor, meaning it works with actual runs; third-order methods rely on projections for runs, then apply a games-won formula of some sort. It is dangerous to rely on second-order methods to judge a team’s performance.

As a team, the M’s hit better with the bases empty than in pretty much any scenario where they had a chance to drive in a run (which is not normal, if you’re wondering), and while that’s frustrating to watch, it’s not an indicator that the M’s were really the worst offense in baseball – they were just a bad offense that failed in the clutch more often than they should have.

…couldn’t you use that as an argument against Wakamatsu and chemistry? I mean, wouldn’t a good coach have found a way to make a team score clutch runs? Would the team maybe have been a little more “clutch” if they weren’t having so much fun?

(For the record, I’m playing at devilish advocacy here: looking at third order wins — which is the more accurate version of the Pythagorean projection — the team was a “real talent” 83-79, just two wins less than their real record, so there’s nothing really to “explain”… except maybe why so many commentators don’t use 3rd order wins. Oh, yeah: it’s harder to explain and it would mean they wouldn’t have a hook on which to hang an article.)

Is everyone really that down on Jack Wilson? Assuming his injuries aren’t a sign of things to come, his 3 year WAR line is 2.6/1.6/2.0… I don’t get the lack of optimism from some of the people commenting here.

Note that all of his positive WAR comes from defense. Many of the people “down” on Jack Wilson seem to be looking only at his offensive numbers, and evidently don’t believe a run saved is equal to a run earned. I’m not sure why so many people think offensive production has to come from the SS (the Jeter/Nomah/ARod/etc “super SS” era is almost a decade gone by now) but that seems to be what is skewing the opinions of some. Yeah, the team needs offense and it would be nice to get more from every position, but trading superb defense for maybe average offense is a fool’s bargain, especially with this pitching staff.

It’s probably also true that Wilson played here so briefly before he got injured that many people don’t have a sense of his defensive worth (and don’t look at / believe the defensive stats) so the offensive part of his portrait is the only one they’re seeing.

That 20 WAR has to fit into roughly seven open* slots (1B, 3B, LF, DH, 3xSP) plus whatever upgrades Zduriencik can make over the returning guys (2B and SS mostly). That’s almost +3 WAR per position. Hmmm…

The gloomy side is that isn’t going to be easy – that’s finding half a team worth of above average players.

The bright side is we have 2 legit All-Star outfielders (one entering his prime) and one legit candidate for best-pitcher-in-baseball in the rotation. Those three positions should give up +15 or better WAR, and that’s a hell of a core to build around.

It’s not easy to build a championship caliber MLB team – it ain’t tiddlywinks at that level. Luckily we have a GM who is good at his job and that’s reason to be optimistic.

* 1B and 3B count as open though resigning Beltre or Branyan is certainly an option for filling them.

“Scout/People believe that the Mariners played so hard and in so many one run games that it isn’t sustainable year over year because you can’t expect a team to always treat every game like its must win”

I am 99% assuming this is just another one of his random opinions he passes off as fact. However, I was wondering if there is any future impact to a team playing so many one run games in one year. Does the team not stay as mentally tough as Baker claims?

Shortstop – all options equally bad (equal)

I’ve read several comments like this over the past several days… Is everyone really that down on Jack Wilson? Assuming his injuries aren’t a sign of things to come, his 3 year WAR line is 2.6/1.6/2.0… I don’t get the lack of optimism from some of the people commenting here.

Some of your points are well taken, though I think the overall analysis is rather ham-fisted. To wit:

C: Johjima/Johnson/Burke (1.0/0.4/-0.4) was worth +1 WAR this season (leaving out Quiroz who played very little and at replacement level). I think it’s a bit early to say one way or another what kind of WAR Moore might have next year, but if Johnson stays at +0.4 (and there is room there, obviously, for some improvement), Moore would have to be a +0.6 player assuming he and RoJo are the tandem next year. The jury will have to stay out until Moore plays a full season, but given his skills it seems he certainly has the ability to produce more value than that.

1B — I’m not certain on what basis you expect Branyan to regress. Yes, he had the best WAR of his career and the third best on the 2009 M’s, but this was also the first time he’d played a full season (not counting the injury) as a starter. His plate discipline and and batted ball numbers for 2009 ended up being pretty much in line with his career averages, so assuming he comes back more or less healthy, I don’t see how he rates as a downgrade.

3B — Pretty much anyone other than Beltre is going to be a downgrade defensively, and just because Figgins had a typical UZR/150 for him at 3B, there is no way, NO WAY, he is a +6.0 WAR player again like he was last year. In fact, the +2.9 WAR Beltre had this year is pretty much right in line with Figgins’ career average over the six seasons in which he’s had significant playing time, INCLUDING this year’s number. ON that basis alone, Figgins would be a push, and others have raised the issue that the M’s probably don’t need another singles-hitting pop-gun in this lineup.

How did the team perform in 2007 and 2008 in terms of WAR? Would this have predicted that the 2007 team had been lucky and would be expected to regress in 2008?

Dave mentioned this earlier in the comments.

The M’s were a 79 win team, using WAR, in 2007.

As for 2008, they were a 66 win team using WAR. (Assuming I’m doing it right, 46 wins at replacement level, +10 wins from pitching, +10 wins from batting)

You can find this information on Fangraphs (Select year, then batters or pitchers and sort by WAR)

How did the team perform in 2007 and 2008 in terms of WAR? Would this have predicted that the 2007 team had been lucky and would be expected to regress in 2008?

Thanks!

Don’t get me wrong, it will definitely be a daunting task to improve on this season, but to pretend like this team has limited areas for improvement is utterly ridiculous.

1. Yuniesky Betancourt played half a season for the Mariners as their starting Shortstop, and could very well have been the worst regular in baseball for 2009.

2. Adrian Beltre, Russell Branyan, Erik Bedard and Ryan Rowland-Smith all spent significant time on the DL.

3. Griffey and Sweeney were the regulars at DH.

4. Morrow was the closer for a not-insubstantial amount of time.

Certainly this team was able to achieve quite a bit, and I have no doubt that they earned every one of their wins, but there are clear improvements to be made for a creative and motivated GM.