Comments on: The iPhone app is out: 2nd Guesser

By: joser

joser — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 19:22:35 +0000

Totally randomly (I was looking for something else) I found this app and thread linked (towards the bottom) in a blog at KansasCity.com

By: vj

vj — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:46:35 +0000

I love the name 2nd guesser. I hope, no one else has a trademark for it, yet. You should try and obtain the trademark, IMHO. Will there be a version for the personal computer as well? Or, as an idea, maybe this is something you can sell to fangraphs, hardball times or baseball prospectus.
Anyway, good luck with this project. I’d sure buy it if I had an i-phone.

By: Jeff Nye

Jeff Nye — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 23:03:19 +0000

Looking forward to seeing this show up on Android.

Nice job!

By: jwz

jwz — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 21:33:32 +0000

2nd Guesser’s future — by the time spring training rolls around next year, we’ll have an update that will include line-ups with almost-real-time data (the data will be updated every night).

I am in the processing of thinking through the port to java, which would then allow it to run on an Android and Blackberry. That probably will happen, and I hope before the start of next season.

As for MKT’s comments about the complexity of situations…that will likely never happen, simply because the calculations would bring any hand-held device to its knees. 2ndGuesser’s goal was to give a fan something to understand better what’s happening in a game, not to give the manager a tool to use in the dug-out.

By: MKT

MKT — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 20:34:09 +0000

Cool idea. But one of the things that makes these calculations difficult in real world situations is not just the game state (outs, baserunners, score, and inning) but lineup effects as well. Not just the stats of the batter (if it’s the pitcher, bunting is much more likely to be a good idea), but the stats of the on-deck batter, and the next batter after him, and etc. Plus there are strategic issues: if you steal 2nd, maybe the opposing manager promptly decides to give an IBB to your next hitter so that his righty pitcher can face your righty hitter, but you’ve got Ken Griffey ready to PH for just that situation, but the opposing manager has his LOOGY, but you’ve got … etc. etc. etc.

Those are difficult to model, even with Monte Carlo simulation of thousands or millions of situations. I can’t tell for sure, but it doesn’t look like the app is taking into account many of those complexities. Most discussions of say the value of a stolen base or a bunt or an IBB use standard game-state and win probability matrices, which are based on average situations, and are not designed for specific lineup situations, quality of the pitcher and batter, lefty-righty situations, etc. One of the great strengths of Tango’s work is that he did take a lot of those complexities into account in The Book.

By: zippyflynn

zippyflynn — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 19:49:35 +0000

Is this currently available? I’ve gone to the Apps store and I’m unable to find it.

By: Jim Thomsen

Jim Thomsen — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 19:47:24 +0000

How about a BlackBerry version?

By: tgf

tgf — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 19:13:29 +0000

Awesome.

By: georgmi

georgmi — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 19:09:16 +0000

I was expecting a higher level of snark in the results, especially the error dialogs on particularly ridiculous strategies.

Also, second the request for links to lineups, though I do know how much more complex that will make the software. Hey, I don’t have to write it. Though I’d be happy to help you test it.

By: BBOneFive

BBOneFive — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 17:20:24 +0000

Any plans to make this available on Android?