Mike Carp is a 1.5 WAR player (and Dave’s discussed him- he’s not close to being as good as you think). Russ Branyan was a 3+ WAR player.

Jose Lopez is about average on offense and defense as a 2B. So, no, he’s not really a case where we sacrifice offense for defense. He’s kinda just average overall.

Adrian Beltre is a very, VERY good 3B (3-4 WAR). Tui isn’t likely to be as good (1-ish WAR, also see Dave). He also has the same problem Moore has (Safeco hates RHB). (Go look at Beltre’s road splits from 2004-2009 and you’ll see why a) he wasn’t a rally-killer, and b) why I’d be REALLY reluctant to start projecting RHB to be particularly awesome.)

You also seem to forget that in LF, Endy Chavez played a bunch of games, as did… Michael Saunders. So I think the defensive improvement’s pretty minimal. Saunders being injured in Venezuela isn’t going to help his development, but he’s a 1-ish WAR player (see above)… like Endy Chavez.

All told, your plan sounds great… for winning 75ish games inexpensively with rookies and Mark Teahen, and still struggling to score runs (-Branyan + Carp is a net downgrade)- with all the eggs being put in the #2 starter basket (ask Bill Bavasi how that went sometime). It also sounds very pie-in-the-sky on the rookie OBP and offensive development, and ignores the value the players like Beltre and Chavez added on defense, as well as what Branyan did.

At catcher, we may want a vet at AAA “just in case”, but both Rob Johnson (27 years old) and Adam Moore (26 years old) are major-league ready or darn close to it. And Moore, in particular,is a hitter (projection: .260/.350 10 HR). Cost of doing next to nothing: neutral, with critical experience gained.

At 1B, Mike Carp, only 23 next year, is a hitter who gets on base and plays decent defense (projection: .260/.350 20HR). This is where the M’s might do a little, perhaps signing Hank Blalock for both DH and 1B backup. But with Branyan down and Carp at 1B late in the year, the M’s didn’t suffer much. Blalock would bring the power (and Branyan may be too much of an injury risk). Impact from 2009: neutral.

At 2B, the M’s already sacrifice defense for offense. But Jose Lopez is just entering his prime, and .300 hitting 2B with 25 homer/100 RBI power are not to be found everywhere. Stand pat.

At 3B, Tuiasasopo, only 24 next year,
almost made the team last year out of a great spring training. He then promptly injured himself at AAA. But as the year closed, he was coming back strongly. The M’s might want to make a trade play with KC for Mark Teahen, who can also play OF (cover for Michael Saunders, see below), but Tuiasasopo projects at .260/.360 with 15 HR…not a rally-stopper like Beltre, with a much better OPB. Again, we’ll sacrifice a defense, but we don’t lose that much offensively. In fact, it might be an offense upgrade from 2009, with a bit less power but a lot more getting on base, moving guys over, getting guys in.

At SS, the M’s will probably buy out Jack Wilson’s option for $600K, then sign him for two years while they wait for Triunfel. Wilson’s sense of team play, baseball instincts, and ability to move guys over offensively will far exceed last year’s production. Defensively, he’s baseball’s best shortstop. Upgrade both offensively and defensively over 2009.

Outfield: Gutierrez, Ichiro, Michael Saunders. Saunders, only 23 next year, will improve offensively, and may be 2010′s Rookie of the Year. He’s strong defensively, has good speed, hits to all fields, and gets on base (projected conservatively at .260/.350 15 HR , with lots of upside). Here’s another place where the M’s could use someone like Mike Teahen from KC as an experienced, proven backup who can hit. Impact from 2009: upgrade offensively and defensively.

Simply by adding a veteran backup catcher playing at AAA, and by adding two experienced, good-hitting players like Hank Blalock (free agent 1B/DH backup) and Mark Teahen (3B/OF backup) in a relatively minor trade with KC, the M’s are in very good position to be a better team both offensively and in key defensive positions (SS and LF) next year.

We have to learn how good Moore, Johnson, Carp, Tuiasasopo, and Saunders can be. Moore, Carp, Tuiasasopo, and Saunders, in particular, appear to have good upside offensive potential. If we can back them up with vets “just in case”, that may be the way to go.

That leaves lots of money for a strong #2 pitcher in free agency. But that’s another guessing game at some other time.

The only thing to look forward to for the next week or two is Raul maybe getting a ring. I hope he does.

Well, there’s always hoping that the wankees go down like a whitehouse intern…

Definitely time for Junior to look on this knee surgery as how he’s going to be able to walk normally in his later years, not a way to play baseball and need another surgery next year.

Hopefully it’s to help his golf swing.

I can’t wait for this world series to be over with. The suspense of the off-season is killing me. The only thing to look forward to for the next week or two is Raul maybe getting a ring. I hope he does.

I hunger for Mariners baseball news.

MLB gets mad at you if you make a move during the playoffs/WS. Unless you’re Scott Boras and/or ARod.

And the after taste is something like “Griffey is coming back in 2010.”

Which, if having his knee surgery this early is any indication, he wants to do! Yaaaaaaaay! Who needs a DH anyway?!?

I hunger for Mariners baseball news. Come on, Z, flip Felix for Lillibridge already!

I just threw up in my mouth a little bit. And the after taste is something like “Griffey is coming back in 2010.”