Comments on: Zack Greinke Is Awesome

By: Graham

Graham — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 23:50:01 +0000

Everyone here seem versed in this language. I was wondering why in FIP is HR times 13, why is BB, HBP, IBB added together and added to HRx13 and then that times 3?

FIP is based around the run values of HR, ‘BB’, and Ks. (‘BB’ because a hit by pitch is included – there’s no major difference between a HBP and a walk for our purposes). It just so happens that a walk is 1.5x as detrimental in terms of run values as a strikeout is beneficial, and a home run is 3-1/3rd times worse than a walk.

By: Graham

Graham — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 22:57:17 +0000

If you look at FIP and understand to look for anomalous HR/FB to make sure that its not artificially inflated or deflated, youâ€™re getting 99% of tRA with a lot less work.

Well you could just look at tRA and get 100% of tRA with no work but yes, tRA is only a slight improvement on FIP.

By: lewis

lewis — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 18:29:47 +0000

Everyone here seem versed in this language. I was wondering why in FIP is HR times 13, why is BB, HBP, IBB added together and added to HRx13 and then that times 3?; why are strikeouts only 2 times as valuable in negative sense as BB? It is easy to find formulas and I was hoping that since everyone here seems to understand the rational behind all this someone could help me out. At least point me in a direction to find the thought process out.- Thanks

By: Taylor H

Taylor H — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 17:27:31 +0000

I find it simultaneously ironic and pathetic that Zack Greinke knows more about sabermetrics than Dayton Moore does.

By: BobbyAyalaFan4Life

BobbyAyalaFan4Life — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 17:14:55 +0000

Yeah, but Dave, I played college baseball. These statheads just sit in their parents basement all day. Grienke doesn’t know what he’s talking about cause I played. Oh….wait.

By: Dave

Dave — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 17:07:35 +0000

FIP is not perfect. The batted ball issue is why Graham invented tRA, which adjusts for the fact that a pitcher can control the types of batted balls he gives up. tRA is better than FIP.

However (and this will probably annoy Graham a bit), it’s only marginally better – the difference between them when you add in the batted ball data isn’t that huge.

If you look at FIP and understand to look for anomalous HR/FB to make sure that its not artificially inflated or deflated, you’re getting 99% of tRA with a lot less work.

By: Wells

Wells — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 16:11:26 +0000

Dave- maybe you can answer. I like FIP but I can’t quite settle this question: how does the idea of FIP stripping away luck by claiming a pitcher has very little control over a batted ball square with the idea of a flyball/groundball pitcher, this idea hinging upon the thought that pitchers _do_ have significant control over a batted ball?

By: Jeff Sullivan

Jeff Sullivan — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 07:27:00 +0000

Greinke had a 42% groundball rate at home and a 38% groundball rate on the road.

By: TranquilPsychosis

TranquilPsychosis — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 06:29:24 +0000

Also, I thought the fly ball to HR correlation was considered Luck by most SABR folks (please correct me if Iâ€™m wrong). So a flyball pitcher is going to give up more HRs yet may in fact be a better pitcher than a ground ball guy.

Generally, this is more true than not. But you do have to look at which park they are pitching in. Also splits make a difference. And, in some cases, (Safeco being a prime example) handedness of the pitcher can be a big factor. (see Jarrod Washburn 2009)

By: TranquilPsychosis

TranquilPsychosis — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 06:14:49 +0000

Whoâ€™s to say that his understanding of, and apparent aggreement with, FIP wonâ€™t,

Should have read: Whoâ€™s to say that his understanding of, and apparent aggreement with, FIP wonâ€™t eventually be embraced by other pitchers?

Damned keyboard was mistaken.