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	<title>Comments on: M&#8217;s Offer Beltre Arbitration</title>
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	<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/01/ms-offer-beltre-arbitration/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion</description>
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		<title>By: joser</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/01/ms-offer-beltre-arbitration/comment-page-1/#comment-355959</link>
		<dc:creator>joser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 01:11:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9718#comment-355959</guid>
		<description>Yes, and Cameron was a guy who was very productive with the glove -- something that was under-appreciated in Seattle at the time, and is still generally unappreciated today.  A run saved is worth a run earned, and he saved an awful lot of runs.

Also you&#039;ll note his lifetime &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1070&amp;position=OF#winprobability&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;RE24&lt;/a&gt; is right in line with his &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1070&amp;position=OF#advanced&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;wRAA&lt;/a&gt;, which means he didn&#039;t strike out more in clutch situations than he did the rest of the time.  So his Ks weren&#039;t especially bad as far as Ks go (and they&#039;re better than GIDP).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, and Cameron was a guy who was very productive with the glove &#8212; something that was under-appreciated in Seattle at the time, and is still generally unappreciated today.  A run saved is worth a run earned, and he saved an awful lot of runs.</p>
<p>Also you&#8217;ll note his lifetime <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1070&amp;position=OF#winprobability" rel="nofollow">RE24</a> is right in line with his <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1070&amp;position=OF#advanced" rel="nofollow">wRAA</a>, which means he didn&#8217;t strike out more in clutch situations than he did the rest of the time.  So his Ks weren&#8217;t especially bad as far as Ks go (and they&#8217;re better than GIDP).</p>
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		<title>By: mattlock</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/01/ms-offer-beltre-arbitration/comment-page-1/#comment-355885</link>
		<dc:creator>mattlock</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Dec 2009 12:54:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9718#comment-355885</guid>
		<description>Hmm, great articles joser.  Provided for some rather fascinating reading, and actually increased my potential for embracing my own &quot;inner K&quot;, as you so eloquently put it.

I think the biggest point that I came away with was in the Yahoo! article--Jon Daniels&#039; comment, &quot;Those guys have value, &lt;strong&gt;as long as theyâ€™re productive otherwise&lt;/strong&gt;,&quot; referring to guys that strikeout a lot.  And I think I might propose that that production could come offensively or defensively.  And a guy that did all three--that is, struck out a lot, but produced at least above average offensively, and above average to well above average defensively--well then, he&#039;d be worth all those strikeouts.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hmm, great articles joser.  Provided for some rather fascinating reading, and actually increased my potential for embracing my own &#8220;inner K&#8221;, as you so eloquently put it.</p>
<p>I think the biggest point that I came away with was in the Yahoo! article&#8211;Jon Daniels&#8217; comment, &#8220;Those guys have value, <strong>as long as theyâ€™re productive otherwise</strong>,&#8221; referring to guys that strikeout a lot.  And I think I might propose that that production could come offensively or defensively.  And a guy that did all three&#8211;that is, struck out a lot, but produced at least above average offensively, and above average to well above average defensively&#8211;well then, he&#8217;d be worth all those strikeouts.</p>
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		<title>By: joser</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/01/ms-offer-beltre-arbitration/comment-page-1/#comment-355882</link>
		<dc:creator>joser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Dec 2009 09:05:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9718#comment-355882</guid>
		<description>See the last para &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/sabermetrics-in-the-mainstream/#comment-110896&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;.    Or &lt;a href=&quot;http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-strikeouts090909&amp;prov=yhoo&amp;type=lgns&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;this&lt;/a&gt;.  Or &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.thediamondangle.com/marasco/opan/kfile.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;this&lt;/a&gt;.  Or any of a number of articles at HardballTimes.  

It&#039;s not that strikeouts don&#039;t matter, but they don&#039;t matter as much as you think they do.  Drop the hate, embrace your inner K.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>See the last para <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/sabermetrics-in-the-mainstream/#comment-110896" rel="nofollow">here</a>.    Or <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-strikeouts090909&amp;prov=yhoo&amp;type=lgns" rel="nofollow">this</a>.  Or <a href="http://www.thediamondangle.com/marasco/opan/kfile.html" rel="nofollow">this</a>.  Or any of a number of articles at HardballTimes.  </p>
<p>It&#8217;s not that strikeouts don&#8217;t matter, but they don&#8217;t matter as much as you think they do.  Drop the hate, embrace your inner K.</p>
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		<title>By: amnizu</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/01/ms-offer-beltre-arbitration/comment-page-1/#comment-355846</link>
		<dc:creator>amnizu</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Dec 2009 01:49:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9718#comment-355846</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Exactly. For an interesting exercise, compare his GIDP to Beltreâ€™s.
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
That wasnâ€™t really the point I was trying to raise with GIDP.  I am just concerned about Cammy&#039;s legs and wondering if an increase in GIDP and a drop in SB attempts and SB % (granted smaller sample size) isnâ€™t a sign of decline.  That said his defensive metrics were still very strong last year.  

As far as the strikeouts, just annoying thatâ€™s all.  I despise platinum sombreros.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Exactly. For an interesting exercise, compare his GIDP to Beltreâ€™s.
</p></blockquote>
<p>That wasnâ€™t really the point I was trying to raise with GIDP.  I am just concerned about Cammy&#8217;s legs and wondering if an increase in GIDP and a drop in SB attempts and SB % (granted smaller sample size) isnâ€™t a sign of decline.  That said his defensive metrics were still very strong last year.  </p>
<p>As far as the strikeouts, just annoying thatâ€™s all.  I despise platinum sombreros.</p>
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		<title>By: Breadbaker</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/01/ms-offer-beltre-arbitration/comment-page-1/#comment-355844</link>
		<dc:creator>Breadbaker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Dec 2009 01:32:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9718#comment-355844</guid>
		<description>There&#039;s a &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/the_latest_and_last_i_hope_jc_thread_on_this_site/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;discussion thread on Tango&#039;s site&lt;/a&gt; right now about aging patterns between 27 year olds and 35 year olds.  The stat they focus on is OPS.  If you look at Cammie&#039;s OPS over his career, it defies expectations.  He&#039;s remarkably, almost eerily consistent.  So I wouldn&#039;t worry about whether he&#039;s going to have Brady Anderson&#039;s aging pattern.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There&#8217;s a <a href="http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/the_latest_and_last_i_hope_jc_thread_on_this_site/" rel="nofollow">discussion thread on Tango&#8217;s site</a> right now about aging patterns between 27 year olds and 35 year olds.  The stat they focus on is OPS.  If you look at Cammie&#8217;s OPS over his career, it defies expectations.  He&#8217;s remarkably, almost eerily consistent.  So I wouldn&#8217;t worry about whether he&#8217;s going to have Brady Anderson&#8217;s aging pattern.</p>
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		<title>By: mattlock</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/01/ms-offer-beltre-arbitration/comment-page-1/#comment-355843</link>
		<dc:creator>mattlock</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Dec 2009 01:12:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9718#comment-355843</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Similar batters to Mike Cameron through age 36:

&lt;b&gt;Ron Gant (1 more good year as a part-timer)&lt;/b&gt;
Darrell Evans (effective â€™til age 41)
Brady Anderson (done at 36)
&lt;b&gt;Rick Monday (so-so as part-timer at 37 then done)&lt;/b&gt;
Ray Lankford (one more so-so part time year at 37)
Bobby Murcer (done at 36)
Bobby Thomson (done at 36)
&lt;b&gt;Reggie Sanders (a couple more decent years as a part-timer)&lt;/b&gt;
Devon White (2 more part-time seasons but average at best)
&lt;b&gt;Don Baylor (1 good year at 37 then played on in decline for 2 more years)&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Pardon my asking, but isn&#039;t that exactly what the goal would be in acquiring him in the first place?  His defense has shown no signs of letting up.  As for his hitting:
&lt;blockquote&gt;Focussing on strikouts over OBP and OPS is kinda focussing on the wrong thing, hm? And GIDPs needs something else, like BABIP, to round out the analysis, too?&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Exactly.  For an interesting exercise, compare his GIDP to Beltre&#039;s.

For any other concerns about Cammy, I&#039;d refer you to &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bay-vs-cameron&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;this &lt;/a&gt; article by Dave.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Similar batters to Mike Cameron through age 36:</p>
<p><b>Ron Gant (1 more good year as a part-timer)</b><br />
Darrell Evans (effective â€™til age 41)<br />
Brady Anderson (done at 36)<br />
<b>Rick Monday (so-so as part-timer at 37 then done)</b><br />
Ray Lankford (one more so-so part time year at 37)<br />
Bobby Murcer (done at 36)<br />
Bobby Thomson (done at 36)<br />
<b>Reggie Sanders (a couple more decent years as a part-timer)</b><br />
Devon White (2 more part-time seasons but average at best)<br />
<b>Don Baylor (1 good year at 37 then played on in decline for 2 more years)</b></p></blockquote>
<p>Pardon my asking, but isn&#8217;t that exactly what the goal would be in acquiring him in the first place?  His defense has shown no signs of letting up.  As for his hitting:</p>
<blockquote><p>Focussing on strikouts over OBP and OPS is kinda focussing on the wrong thing, hm? And GIDPs needs something else, like BABIP, to round out the analysis, too?</p></blockquote>
<p>Exactly.  For an interesting exercise, compare his GIDP to Beltre&#8217;s.</p>
<p>For any other concerns about Cammy, I&#8217;d refer you to <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bay-vs-cameron" rel="nofollow">this </a> article by Dave.</p>
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		<title>By: Erik</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/01/ms-offer-beltre-arbitration/comment-page-1/#comment-355842</link>
		<dc:creator>Erik</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Dec 2009 23:54:55 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Just another example of Bavasi&#039;s incompetence is highlighted in this year&#039;s arbitration offers.  Rafael Soriano was offered arbitration by the Braves, but the best part is his classification as a Type A free agent, which the M&#039;s traded for Horacio Ramirez who recently signed a minor league contract with the Nationals.  Thankfully the M&#039;s have Zduriencik now.

&lt;a href=&quot;http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091201&amp;content_id=7736140&amp;vkey=news_atl&amp;fext=.jsp&amp;c_id=atl&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Link&lt;/a&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just another example of Bavasi&#8217;s incompetence is highlighted in this year&#8217;s arbitration offers.  Rafael Soriano was offered arbitration by the Braves, but the best part is his classification as a Type A free agent, which the M&#8217;s traded for Horacio Ramirez who recently signed a minor league contract with the Nationals.  Thankfully the M&#8217;s have Zduriencik now.</p>
<p><a href="http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091201&amp;content_id=7736140&amp;vkey=news_atl&amp;fext=.jsp&amp;c_id=atl" rel="nofollow">Link</a></p>
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		<title>By: joser</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/01/ms-offer-beltre-arbitration/comment-page-1/#comment-355841</link>
		<dc:creator>joser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Dec 2009 21:43:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9718#comment-355841</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;
My point was simply that we need a third baseman and heâ€™s the best availableâ€¦.it should be a priority to sign him
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
That argument could&#039;ve been made last offseason for a first baseman and Texeira, or an arm in the rotation and Sabbathia (both things the M&#039;s needed).  And if you&#039;re the Yankees, you can follow that logic.  But if you&#039;re a team with a more limited payroll, it doesn&#039;t make sense to always chase &quot;the best available&quot; if it&#039;s possible to accumulate the same number of wins in different ways using less dollars.  In this case, as much as I love watching Beltre play, it might make sense to plug the hole at 3rd with somebody less awesome and devote the dollars saved to buying value at other positions.  Such as, say, signing Felix.

Living within a budget sucks, but outside of New York (and maybe even there, sometimes) that&#039;s reality.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>
My point was simply that we need a third baseman and heâ€™s the best availableâ€¦.it should be a priority to sign him
</p></blockquote>
<p>That argument could&#8217;ve been made last offseason for a first baseman and Texeira, or an arm in the rotation and Sabbathia (both things the M&#8217;s needed).  And if you&#8217;re the Yankees, you can follow that logic.  But if you&#8217;re a team with a more limited payroll, it doesn&#8217;t make sense to always chase &#8220;the best available&#8221; if it&#8217;s possible to accumulate the same number of wins in different ways using less dollars.  In this case, as much as I love watching Beltre play, it might make sense to plug the hole at 3rd with somebody less awesome and devote the dollars saved to buying value at other positions.  Such as, say, signing Felix.</p>
<p>Living within a budget sucks, but outside of New York (and maybe even there, sometimes) that&#8217;s reality.</p>
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		<title>By: BillyJive</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/01/ms-offer-beltre-arbitration/comment-page-1/#comment-355840</link>
		<dc:creator>BillyJive</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Dec 2009 20:57:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9718#comment-355840</guid>
		<description>My point was simply that we need a third baseman and he&#039;s the best available....it should be a priority to sign him. Whethere it is or not is debatable but it doesn&#039;t seem to be...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My point was simply that we need a third baseman and he&#8217;s the best available&#8230;.it should be a priority to sign him. Whethere it is or not is debatable but it doesn&#8217;t seem to be&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: nathaniel dawson</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/01/ms-offer-beltre-arbitration/comment-page-1/#comment-355839</link>
		<dc:creator>nathaniel dawson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Dec 2009 19:55:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9718#comment-355839</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Why isnâ€™t resigning Beltre more of a priority??&lt;/blockquote&gt;

How do you know that it isn&#039;t? The Mariners don&#039;t usually make announcements about the players they&#039;re targeting. Just because you&#039;re not hearing about it doesn&#039;t mean it&#039;s not something they might do.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Why isnâ€™t resigning Beltre more of a priority??</p></blockquote>
<p>How do you know that it isn&#8217;t? The Mariners don&#8217;t usually make announcements about the players they&#8217;re targeting. Just because you&#8217;re not hearing about it doesn&#8217;t mean it&#8217;s not something they might do.</p>
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