Comments on: Making Rumors Pass The Smell Test

By: Replaced by the Moose

Replaced by the Moose — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 21:24:12 +0000

But! But! He lives in Kirkland! Geoff Baker can see Kirkland from his house! It just makes sense…

By: Jeff Nye

Jeff Nye — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 20:18:29 +0000

Zaun to the Brewers from the looks. Oh well. One rumor down!

By: Chris C.

Chris C. — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 19:57:46 +0000

Best of luck getting a hit through the 5/6 against the M’s if the deal comes to fruition.

I guess the Angel’s have a shot still, but potentially a nice lil’ pickup.

By: joser

joser — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 19:04:31 +0000

Heâ€™s kind of the pre-worn jeans of hitters, so I donâ€™t think heâ€™ll fade that much further over the life of the contract.

Heh. That makes him comfortable, but does it make him the best use of our wardrobe dollar? Especially when there's that rather large hole in the left pocket. (Man, I so wanted to use "busted fly" here but I couldn't come up with a phrasing that worked.)

By: Mike Snow

Mike Snow — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 16:22:54 +0000

Looked at from his expected lifespan vs. length of contract would argue for front loading being in his favor. His maximal abilities are relatively very soon, as are his maximal risks.

Once he has a guaranteed long-term contract, it no longer matters to Felix what his period of maximum injury risk is within the contract term. So that’s not a reason to frontload.

By: Eric M. Van

Eric M. Van — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 07:31:38 +0000

The flaw in this otherwise airtight argument comes from not applying the point of the entire piece to one of the premise “facts.”

It doesn’t pass any kind of smell test that the Sox offered Bay $15M and he turned it down. Especially when they clearly would rather sign Holliday.

How about this for a scenario: because teams do value defense these days, the Sox offer to Bay was surprisingly, even shockingly, low. A wake-up call. Bay is willing to take a hometown discount, and the Mariners feel they can sign him at a cost-effective rate to be their DH and a backup plan in LF should Saunders need some more time in AAA (and I don’t see how he projects to be an above-average hitting MLB LF — a pretty high bar — without some AAA time at age 23. And why not delay his arb clock with half a year more down there?)

BTW, I think Bay’s hitting skills will age well. Despite the high K rate he is an extremely disciplined hitter, so the high BB rate will continue. He has very large good pitch / cripple pitch splits if you crunch pitch/fx data, and MLB pitchers are not going to stop making mistake pitches any time soon. He already hits like a guy who’s 36 and used to be an awesome hitter, and is now pitchable but still kills mistakes. He’s kind of the pre-worn jeans of hitters, so I don’t think he’ll fade that much further over the life of the contract.

By: Dave

Dave — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 06:13:24 +0000

The answer to any “better than” phrase is “better than what”. Because until you answer that, everything else is meaningless.

Better than if they don’t spend the money at all, and the team goes into 2010 with Griffey as the starting DH? Sure.

Better than if they spent the money on starting pitching, then traded Morrow for an interesting young hitter? No, I think not.

Better than if they spent the money on Figgins or Beltre? No, I think not.

You can say that the team will be “better” only if you don’t care about opportunity cost. And if you don’t care about opportunity cost, then we shouldn’t care about your opinion.

By: joser

joser — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 05:44:09 +0000

Our team would be better with Bay on it. No question.

In 2010, possibly (if you overlook the other players you’d have to forgo by acquiring him). By the end of his contract? Not a chance.

By: nathaniel dawson

nathaniel dawson — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 04:36:13 +0000

The reason that Felix’ contract would be backloaded is that the team is able to keep a lot of the surplus value they have in him intact for the next two years. They’re set to receive a ton of surplus value from him and they would not want to give most of that up. That extra money could provide a lot of talent to put behind Felix that would help them win more games, which generates more revenue, which would help pay for his escalating salary in the later years of the deal. It might be attractive for Felix as well, because backloading can often result in a higher total dollar value for the whole contract. It’s no different than a company taking out a loan which costs them money in the future with the interest payments. They get the money up front to make improvements in their business, which can increase sales, generate more revenue, and will help pay off the loan plus the interest in later years.

By: eponymous coward

eponymous coward — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:55:01 +0000

I think one thing should be made clear. Our team would be better with Bay on it. No question. Assuming it doesnâ€™t cripple our payroll. Heâ€™d be our best hitter, and we could put him at DH half the time. The only question is if his salary would kill any chance of signing Harden, etc. Now if the FO would increase the payroll for this signing, then itâ€™s all gravy, right?

Richie Sexson was our best hitter in 2005, with similar skills to Bay (lots of Ks, good power, not great average or defense at a position where there’s no defensive premium), and got a similar contract to what Bay would get. How’d that end up working out?