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	<title>Comments on: M&#8217;s Sign Harden?</title>
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	<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/09/ms-sign-harden/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion</description>
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		<title>By: joser</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/09/ms-sign-harden/comment-page-2/#comment-358396</link>
		<dc:creator>joser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Dec 2009 04:10:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9766#comment-358396</guid>
		<description>Heh, I just came back to this thread and realized I wrote that last comment &lt;i&gt;before&lt;/i&gt; the Big Trade broke.

Some of these comments look almost comical now.  Ah, ye of little faith....

&lt;a href=&quot;http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2010531950_not_landing_rich_harden_might.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Rich Who?&lt;/a&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Heh, I just came back to this thread and realized I wrote that last comment <i>before</i> the Big Trade broke.</p>
<p>Some of these comments look almost comical now.  Ah, ye of little faith&#8230;.</p>
<p><a href="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2010531950_not_landing_rich_harden_might.html" rel="nofollow">Rich Who?</a></p>
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		<title>By: joser</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/09/ms-sign-harden/comment-page-2/#comment-356892</link>
		<dc:creator>joser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Dec 2009 17:23:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9766#comment-356892</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;
What Iâ€™m worried about now is either overpaying for mid-level players or else just not spending any more money at all and trying to pick up the scraps at the end. Iâ€™m not real excited about many of the free agents left but if we donâ€™t go after any of them, the chances of our being competitive is slim.
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
Sounds like you&#039;re still suffering from the Bavasi hangover.

Why does everyone assume that once the free agents are gone, that&#039;s it?  Or that the only (or best) players available to the M&#039;s are free agents?  Need I remind you that the M&#039;s vastly improved last year without signing a significant free agent?  Free agents are sexy and fun and are topmost in the mind of fantasy players, but they&#039;re hardly the end of the story; moreover, they&#039;re the most expensive way to add wins to a team.  

The end of the winter meetings doesn&#039;t mark the end of the offseason.  It marks the beginning.  Now the real work, the hard work, of the offseason starts.  The obvious names have come and gone, and the GMs have done all the ass-licking the agents demand.  But the orgs also spent a lot of time schmoozing with one another, opening up the lines, getting the preliminaries out of the way, setting the table.  Now they can get down to business burning up the phone lines on those blockbuster trades.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>
What Iâ€™m worried about now is either overpaying for mid-level players or else just not spending any more money at all and trying to pick up the scraps at the end. Iâ€™m not real excited about many of the free agents left but if we donâ€™t go after any of them, the chances of our being competitive is slim.
</p></blockquote>
<p>Sounds like you&#8217;re still suffering from the Bavasi hangover.</p>
<p>Why does everyone assume that once the free agents are gone, that&#8217;s it?  Or that the only (or best) players available to the M&#8217;s are free agents?  Need I remind you that the M&#8217;s vastly improved last year without signing a significant free agent?  Free agents are sexy and fun and are topmost in the mind of fantasy players, but they&#8217;re hardly the end of the story; moreover, they&#8217;re the most expensive way to add wins to a team.  </p>
<p>The end of the winter meetings doesn&#8217;t mark the end of the offseason.  It marks the beginning.  Now the real work, the hard work, of the offseason starts.  The obvious names have come and gone, and the GMs have done all the ass-licking the agents demand.  But the orgs also spent a lot of time schmoozing with one another, opening up the lines, getting the preliminaries out of the way, setting the table.  Now they can get down to business burning up the phone lines on those blockbuster trades.</p>
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		<title>By: Seattleken</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/09/ms-sign-harden/comment-page-2/#comment-356881</link>
		<dc:creator>Seattleken</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Dec 2009 14:42:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9766#comment-356881</guid>
		<description>[off-topic]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[off-topic]</p>
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		<title>By: Mekias</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/09/ms-sign-harden/comment-page-2/#comment-356880</link>
		<dc:creator>Mekias</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Dec 2009 14:19:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9766#comment-356880</guid>
		<description>The contract that Harden got played down his risk/reward label.  Realistically, the contract is worth between 7.5 and 12 million.  The likelihood that the option year gets picked up is pretty slim so you can almost add that 1 million buyout to his current year contract.  If he pitches &gt; 195 innings, he&#039;ll likely earn the 12 million but the reward isn&#039;t maybe quite as much as the Mariners were hoping considering his injury history.

What I&#039;m worried about now is either overpaying for mid-level players or else just not spending any more money at all and trying to pick up the scraps at the end.  I&#039;m not real excited about many of the free agents left but if we don&#039;t go after any of them, the chances of our being competitive is slim.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The contract that Harden got played down his risk/reward label.  Realistically, the contract is worth between 7.5 and 12 million.  The likelihood that the option year gets picked up is pretty slim so you can almost add that 1 million buyout to his current year contract.  If he pitches &gt; 195 innings, he&#8217;ll likely earn the 12 million but the reward isn&#8217;t maybe quite as much as the Mariners were hoping considering his injury history.</p>
<p>What I&#8217;m worried about now is either overpaying for mid-level players or else just not spending any more money at all and trying to pick up the scraps at the end.  I&#8217;m not real excited about many of the free agents left but if we don&#8217;t go after any of them, the chances of our being competitive is slim.</p>
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		<title>By: rlharr</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/09/ms-sign-harden/comment-page-2/#comment-356879</link>
		<dc:creator>rlharr</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Dec 2009 10:54:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9766#comment-356879</guid>
		<description>It&#039;s not really an answer at starter, but I could see offering Randy Johnson or John Smoltz a job as a Goose Gossage type reliever - 2-4 innings 40 times a year.  It would be a risk, but you might get a lights out pitcher who would could pitch the highest leverage endgames.  Young pitcher struggling, high pitch count, but the game&#039;s still close one way or the other?  Bring in the Goose.  I&#039;m tired of one-inning closers, I want a Gooser.

The other day Derek said something about roster construction for the playoffs being different.  I agree, and I wonder if the old adage that pitching and defense are more important in the postseason doesn&#039;t have a thread of truth.  In general one will see better hitters and pitchers in the postseason.  The hitters will get less at bats than they would against an average pitcher, so they lose a bit of importance.  But the defense is likely to see more balls in play, and harder hit balls, so good defense gains importance.

Pitching gains importance in a different way.  First of all, your top three starters go from starting ~65% of the games to starting 75-80%, making them more important.  However, as they are facing a superior offense, they are not likely to go as far into games, so the importance of the bullpen is also increased.  Coming back to the idea of a Gooser, a reliever who can come in early and slam the door would also gain value.  Think Mariano Rivera, but for three innings.  Having that available 2-3 times in a series could be decisive.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s not really an answer at starter, but I could see offering Randy Johnson or John Smoltz a job as a Goose Gossage type reliever &#8211; 2-4 innings 40 times a year.  It would be a risk, but you might get a lights out pitcher who would could pitch the highest leverage endgames.  Young pitcher struggling, high pitch count, but the game&#8217;s still close one way or the other?  Bring in the Goose.  I&#8217;m tired of one-inning closers, I want a Gooser.</p>
<p>The other day Derek said something about roster construction for the playoffs being different.  I agree, and I wonder if the old adage that pitching and defense are more important in the postseason doesn&#8217;t have a thread of truth.  In general one will see better hitters and pitchers in the postseason.  The hitters will get less at bats than they would against an average pitcher, so they lose a bit of importance.  But the defense is likely to see more balls in play, and harder hit balls, so good defense gains importance.</p>
<p>Pitching gains importance in a different way.  First of all, your top three starters go from starting ~65% of the games to starting 75-80%, making them more important.  However, as they are facing a superior offense, they are not likely to go as far into games, so the importance of the bullpen is also increased.  Coming back to the idea of a Gooser, a reliever who can come in early and slam the door would also gain value.  Think Mariano Rivera, but for three innings.  Having that available 2-3 times in a series could be decisive.</p>
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		<title>By: charliemountain</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/09/ms-sign-harden/comment-page-2/#comment-356878</link>
		<dc:creator>charliemountain</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:25:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9766#comment-356878</guid>
		<description>Wait, why would the Orioles want to spend 9yr on Millwood (8 when you subtract 1 for Chris Ray) and not 7.5yr for Harden? Millwood had injury issues last year, too, and on what planet is he a better pitcher at this point? It looks to me like Peter Angelos and the Orioles got pantsed again here.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wait, why would the Orioles want to spend 9yr on Millwood (8 when you subtract 1 for Chris Ray) and not 7.5yr for Harden? Millwood had injury issues last year, too, and on what planet is he a better pitcher at this point? It looks to me like Peter Angelos and the Orioles got pantsed again here.</p>
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		<title>By: charliemountain</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/09/ms-sign-harden/comment-page-2/#comment-356877</link>
		<dc:creator>charliemountain</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:19:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9766#comment-356877</guid>
		<description>Is $7.5 mill for one year worth it in the abstract? Surely, given Harden&#039;s upside. Hopefully the fact that Z didn&#039;t spend it is a good sign that he&#039;s got something even sweeter in store.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Is $7.5 mill for one year worth it in the abstract? Surely, given Harden&#8217;s upside. Hopefully the fact that Z didn&#8217;t spend it is a good sign that he&#8217;s got something even sweeter in store.</p>
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		<title>By: ninjasintheoutfield</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/09/ms-sign-harden/comment-page-2/#comment-356876</link>
		<dc:creator>ninjasintheoutfield</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Dec 2009 06:19:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9766#comment-356876</guid>
		<description>Hmmm, I really thought that would get done....What an exciting few minutes though... i love this stuff!  So while that is slightly disappointing news, what would be truly disappointing is Joel P. back in the M&#039;s rotation, no thank you, keep your new splitter in the NL sir.  Looking forward to see what Jack has in store over the next couple weeks.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hmmm, I really thought that would get done&#8230;.What an exciting few minutes though&#8230; i love this stuff!  So while that is slightly disappointing news, what would be truly disappointing is Joel P. back in the M&#8217;s rotation, no thank you, keep your new splitter in the NL sir.  Looking forward to see what Jack has in store over the next couple weeks.</p>
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		<title>By: Faceplant</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/09/ms-sign-harden/comment-page-2/#comment-356875</link>
		<dc:creator>Faceplant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Dec 2009 06:17:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9766#comment-356875</guid>
		<description>I wonder if the M&#039;s were just more concerned about his health than the Rangers.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I wonder if the M&#8217;s were just more concerned about his health than the Rangers.</p>
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		<title>By: bookbook</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/09/ms-sign-harden/comment-page-2/#comment-356873</link>
		<dc:creator>bookbook</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Dec 2009 05:48:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9766#comment-356873</guid>
		<description>Talk to Jonah Keri about this, but I think it&#039;s something like a straddle play on option contracts.

There&#039;s a narrow range where it gets picked up, but players sometimes do perform as projected.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Talk to Jonah Keri about this, but I think it&#8217;s something like a straddle play on option contracts.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a narrow range where it gets picked up, but players sometimes do perform as projected.</p>
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