Comments on: M’s Sign Bard, Cordero http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/28/ms-sign-bard-cordero/ Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion Thu, 09 Feb 2012 22:05:17 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: Gomez http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/28/ms-sign-bard-cordero/comment-page-1/#comment-359931 Gomez Tue, 29 Dec 2009 20:25:23 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=9931#comment-359931 With regard to Bard's CS%, keep in mind the Padres had some SPs that were very vulnerable to SBs regardless of who was catching. Career SB% for Pads SPs Bard worked with: Jake Peavy: 82% Greg Maddux: 76% Chris Young: 91% Justin Germano: 84% David Wells: 69% Randy Wolf: 60% Cha Seung Baek: 58% Josh Banks: 81% Also, Nick Hundley's career CS% is 22%, and Bard's 2009 CS% with the Nats jumped to 27%. Looks to me like Z found another hidden gem. With regard to Bard’s CS%, keep in mind the Padres had some SPs that were very vulnerable to SBs regardless of who was catching. Career SB% for Pads SPs Bard worked with:

Jake Peavy: 82%
Greg Maddux: 76%
Chris Young: 91%
Justin Germano: 84%
David Wells: 69%
Randy Wolf: 60%
Cha Seung Baek: 58%
Josh Banks: 81%

Also, Nick Hundley’s career CS% is 22%, and Bard’s 2009 CS% with the Nats jumped to 27%.

Looks to me like Z found another hidden gem.

]]> By: JMHawkins http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/28/ms-sign-bard-cordero/comment-page-1/#comment-359896 JMHawkins Tue, 29 Dec 2009 07:28:37 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=9931#comment-359896 All the talk about developing new stats for evaluating catcher throwing defense, I'm skeptical. The average teams sees about 150 attepts per year. Figure most primary catchers won't get more than maybe 120, and then when you start filter out different pitchers or situations... I think the catcher would probably be retired and managing somewhere in AA before you could gather enough attempst to be statistically significant. <blockquote>So, whats the story with Moore? What is his upside?</blockquote> If you look under "Reference Material" along the left-hand column of this site, you'll find a link to "The Future Forty." This is Dave's attempt at projecting the top prospects in the M's system. He hasn't updated it since ST, but going into 2009, he had Moore tagged as having the potential to develop into a 2.50 WAR catcher during his peak years - a bit above league average for the position. As far as stocking up on catchers, not a bad idea considering Adam Moore has 24 Major League plate appearances and Rob Johnson apparently single handedly created the national health care crisis having so many surgeries this off-season. All the talk about developing new stats for evaluating catcher throwing defense, I’m skeptical. The average teams sees about 150 attepts per year. Figure most primary catchers won’t get more than maybe 120, and then when you start filter out different pitchers or situations… I think the catcher would probably be retired and managing somewhere in AA before you could gather enough attempst to be statistically significant.

So, whats the story with Moore? What is his upside?

If you look under “Reference Material” along the left-hand column of this site, you’ll find a link to “The Future Forty.” This is Dave’s attempt at projecting the top prospects in the M’s system. He hasn’t updated it since ST, but going into 2009, he had Moore tagged as having the potential to develop into a 2.50 WAR catcher during his peak years – a bit above league average for the position.

As far as stocking up on catchers, not a bad idea considering Adam Moore has 24 Major League plate appearances and Rob Johnson apparently single handedly created the national health care crisis having so many surgeries this off-season.

]]> By: dallin http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/28/ms-sign-bard-cordero/comment-page-1/#comment-359893 dallin Tue, 29 Dec 2009 05:44:54 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=9931#comment-359893 With it being a Minor League deal we can just keep him in the minors as a backup plan as well, right? With it being a Minor League deal we can just keep him in the minors as a backup plan as well, right?

]]> By: behappy http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/28/ms-sign-bard-cordero/comment-page-1/#comment-359890 behappy Tue, 29 Dec 2009 05:13:37 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=9931#comment-359890 So, whats the story with Moore? What is his upside? I haven't heard much hype about him. I remember early on people seemed to love him. Or is he just really raw? So, whats the story with Moore? What is his upside? I haven’t heard much hype about him. I remember early on people seemed to love him. Or is he just really raw?

]]> By: Kazinski http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/28/ms-sign-bard-cordero/comment-page-1/#comment-359889 Kazinski Tue, 29 Dec 2009 03:49:30 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=9931#comment-359889 Moore is projected to be a league average hitter, which is significantly better than a league average catcher. Maybe not this year, but over the years to come. So if you compare Bards projected OPS, .691, with Moore's, .660 even with the rookie discount, and the factor in Moore's superior defense, then I think Moore is the clear winner. If Bard were likely to deliver a .750ops then of course the calculus would be substantially different. But there is no way that a well run organization would sacrifice better defense and a years worth of development for a potential all-star catcher for a marginal .031ops. Moore is projected to be a league average hitter, which is significantly better than a league average catcher. Maybe not this year, but over the years to come. So if you compare Bards projected OPS, .691, with Moore’s, .660 even with the rookie discount, and the factor in Moore’s superior defense, then I think Moore is the clear winner. If Bard were likely to deliver a .750ops then of course the calculus would be substantially different. But there is no way that a well run organization would sacrifice better defense and a years worth of development for a potential all-star catcher for a marginal .031ops.

]]> By: Grizz http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/28/ms-sign-bard-cordero/comment-page-1/#comment-359886 Grizz Tue, 29 Dec 2009 01:37:43 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=9931#comment-359886 <blockquote>Right, Bard’s offense is slightly below average for a MLB catcher (.685ops vs .717ops). Not very impressive. The point is that Moore has more upside both offensively and defensively than Bard.</blockquote> The real point here is that it is difficult to find a catcher who will hit even league average for that position. For 2010 anyway (and keeping in mind a point of OBP is worth more than a point of SLG), ZIPS still projects Bard as essentially average offensively for a catcher (251/320/371), while Moore is projected solidly below average for a catcher (251/304/356). (And yes, looking at offensive averages by position is not the optimal evaluation method, but is used here for illustrative purposes only.)

Right, Bard’s offense is slightly below average for a MLB catcher (.685ops vs .717ops). Not very impressive. The point is that Moore has more upside both offensively and defensively than Bard.

The real point here is that it is difficult to find a catcher who will hit even league average for that position. For 2010 anyway (and keeping in mind a point of OBP is worth more than a point of SLG), ZIPS still projects Bard as essentially average offensively for a catcher (251/320/371), while Moore is projected solidly below average for a catcher (251/304/356).

(And yes, looking at offensive averages by position is not the optimal evaluation method, but is used here for illustrative purposes only.)

]]> By: rightwingrick http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/28/ms-sign-bard-cordero/comment-page-1/#comment-359884 rightwingrick Tue, 29 Dec 2009 00:53:07 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=9931#comment-359884 Bard's 20% "throw'em out" percentage was hurt badly by some of the worst "hold'em on base" pitchers in baseball. He's about a 30% guy otherwise...still not the best, but not the worst, either. Regarding Cordero, it's typically in the 2nd year after surgery (elbow, shoulder) that a pitcher begins to approach is future performance...and it's rarely the first year. So there is some hope for Cordero, although 6-7 mph is a long stretch. I'll tell you what, though...if he DOES make it back, the Mariners will have one hell of a bullpen! Next up: a starting pitcher and a 1B. I thought the pitcher might be Justin Duchscherer, but it looks like Oakland wrapped him up. Rich Hill? Ben Sheets? Chein-Ming Wang? Bard’s 20% “throw’em out” percentage was hurt badly by some of the worst “hold’em on base” pitchers in baseball. He’s about a 30% guy otherwise…still not the best, but not the worst, either.

Regarding Cordero, it’s typically in the 2nd year after surgery (elbow, shoulder) that a pitcher begins to approach is future performance…and it’s rarely the first year. So there is some hope for Cordero, although 6-7 mph is a long stretch. I’ll tell you what, though…if he DOES make it back, the Mariners will have one hell of a bullpen!

Next up: a starting pitcher and a 1B. I thought the pitcher might be Justin Duchscherer, but it looks like Oakland wrapped him up. Rich Hill? Ben Sheets? Chein-Ming Wang?

]]> By: Kazinski http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/28/ms-sign-bard-cordero/comment-page-1/#comment-359883 Kazinski Tue, 29 Dec 2009 00:48:24 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=9931#comment-359883 That should have been my browser isn't showing the /snark tags. That should have been my browser isn’t showing the /snark tags.

]]> By: Kazinski http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/28/ms-sign-bard-cordero/comment-page-1/#comment-359882 Kazinski Tue, 29 Dec 2009 00:47:28 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=9931#comment-359882 <blockquote>We should hope Bard doesn’t make the team and Adam Moore goes back to AAA. If anybody doesn’t need a backup catcher, it’s Rob Johnson. He should play 9 innings per game, 162 games per year.</blockquote> My browser is showing the tags.

We should hope Bard doesn’t make the team and Adam Moore goes back to AAA. If anybody doesn’t need a backup catcher, it’s Rob Johnson. He should play 9 innings per game, 162 games per year.

My browser is showing the tags.

]]> By: Kazinski http://www.ussmariner.com/2009/12/28/ms-sign-bard-cordero/comment-page-1/#comment-359881 Kazinski Tue, 29 Dec 2009 00:45:28 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=9931#comment-359881 <blockquote> <blockquote> Bards [sic] three year stats don’t look all that impressive .250/.324/.361.</blockquote> Average MLB catcher 2009: 254/321/396 </blockquote> Right, Bard's offense is slightly below average for a MLB catcher (.685ops vs .717ops). Not very impressive. The point is that Moore has more upside both offensively and defensively than Bard. And while it's not hard to imagine Moore struggling his rookie season at the plate, he is going to be better defensively and except in the very worst case not way behind Bard offensively.

Bards [sic] three year stats don’t look all that impressive .250/.324/.361.

Average MLB catcher 2009: 254/321/396

Right, Bard’s offense is slightly below average for a MLB catcher (.685ops vs .717ops). Not very impressive. The point is that Moore has more upside both offensively and defensively than Bard. And while it’s not hard to imagine Moore struggling his rookie season at the plate, he is going to be better defensively and except in the very worst case not way behind Bard offensively.

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