Comments on: Left Field And DH

By: ripperlv

ripperlv — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 22:48:41 +0000

Nicely written and analyzed article with some good comments. I learned a few things.

By: nathaniel dawson

nathaniel dawson — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 07:30:09 +0000

WAR on Fangraphs includes blanket park effects which adjusts everyone the same way

So I was wrong about that. I thought I had heard several times that Fangraphs didn’t use park factors.

It’s easy to assume that Safeco hurts Lopez more than other players – certainly it hurts him more than left-handers – but as far as I know, no one has ever really studied the issue in depth. Without any knowledge to tell us any different, it’s probably best to say that Safeco affects Jose Lopez the same way it affects all other right-handers.

By: DAMellen

DAMellen — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 04:12:13 +0000

Yes! I was right!

By: Dave

Dave — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 03:22:31 +0000

WAR on Fangraphs includes blanket park effects which adjusts everyone the same way – this works for retrospective value (which is what WAR is for) and not as well for true talent level discussions (which is what you guys are talking about in regards to Lopez).

By: DAMellen

DAMellen — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 03:19:06 +0000

eponymous coward,
Here’s my assumption (and for the record it’s totally possible that I’m wrong on this and if that’s the case, I’m totally willing to hear all about what’s right):
I was under the impression that one of the major components of WAR is wOBA which DOES factor in park effects. However parks do not treat all hitters equally. I definitely think the Safe is a lot more damaging to pull power righties like Jose and Mike Cameron than it is to pull hitting lefties like Raul or Russ or even to less pull centric righties like Edgar and Bret Boone. I don’t think I’m alone on that (I’m not am I? AM I?). For that reason, I assume the park adjustments are imperfect. They can scale all Mariners hitters up by 5% because SafeCo allowed 5% less runs than the average park or whatever, but I had assumed that they do not factor in hitting style. Of course, I could be wrong. If they really are able to determine exactly how much SafeCo hurt Jose, then I’m even more impressed by sabermetric analysts than I was already.

And then Nathaniel posts something that shows that my assumption was wrong and that I landed on the correct conclusion completely by accident. Eh, what the hell. I’ll post this anyways.

By: nathaniel dawson

nathaniel dawson — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 02:17:28 +0000

So Lopez is more like a 2.5-3.0 WAR player if park effects are removed, instead of a 2.0-2.5 WAR player?

I suppose that would depend on which WAR metric you are using. Rally includes park and league effects, using TotalZone instead of UZR, and has Lopez at 1.7 WAR last year.

By: mw3

mw3 — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 01:50:49 +0000

Plus that totally disregards that fact that if he played somewhere where it was easier to hit homers, pitchers would probably throw him fewer strikes and he might actually walk thirty times.

No he won’t. He has trouble identifying what is and is not a strike, he will never walk a lot. Look up players with simillar numbers in their early career, they usually max at 30-35 walks in their mid to late thirties. If they can stick that long.

By: eponymous coward

eponymous coward — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 01:01:37 +0000

And for a couple people that asked, Fangraphs WAR (if thatâ€™s the version you were refering to) does not make any adjustments for park or league. At least not unless and until they switch to wRC+.

So Lopez is more like a 2.5-3.0 WAR player if park effects are removed, instead of a 2.0-2.5 WAR player? That’s a fairly substantial difference in value, and places him pretty solidly as a solid MLB 2B… and he’s STILL younger than Jeff Clement.

By: nathaniel dawson

nathaniel dawson — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 23:23:46 +0000

Well, yes, he is hurt by Safeco Field, but letâ€™s not overstate it. The difference between Lopez in Safeco and a nuetral park is probably something more like 1/10th of a win.

You think? I obviously donâ€™t have the WAR formula memorized, but turn just five of his warning track fly balls into homers and his OPS shoots up by .041 points. That seems pretty significant by itself and depending on where you put him it could be a conservative estimate. Plus that totally disregards that fact that if he played somewhere where it was easier to hit homers, pitchers would probably throw him fewer strikes and he might actually walk thirty times. It seems like all that could add up to at least a quarter win, but like I said, I donâ€™t have the formula memorized. Maybe itâ€™s less than Iâ€™m envisioning.

On second look, you may have been closer than I thought. Safeco depresses runs scored by about 5%, so last years team that scored 640 runs would have been expected to score about 660 in a nuetral park. With Lopez getting about 10% of the plate appearances, that adds about 2 runs to his offense. Probably a little more because he was better than the average Mariner hitter last year and right handers are hurt more. So maybe as much as 3 or 4 runs better in a neutral park.

And for a couple people that asked, Fangraphs WAR (if that’s the version you were refering to) does not make any adjustments for park or league. At least not unless and until they switch to wRC+.

By: TumwaterMike

TumwaterMike — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 20:52:46 +0000

I like Sheets but I think he’ll go elsewhere on a 2 or 3 year deal. I don’t hink the M’s will take the risk on more then one year. Maybe resign Washburn for 1 year, if he does well trade him at the deadline again. Also Bedard would be an option but probably not until May. Fister could hold down that starter position until then.