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	<title>Comments on: M&#8217;s Maybe To Trade For Kotchman</title>
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	<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/01/05/ms-maybe-to-trade-for-kotchman/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion</description>
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		<title>By: Mr. Egaas</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/01/05/ms-maybe-to-trade-for-kotchman/comment-page-4/#comment-361266</link>
		<dc:creator>Mr. Egaas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jan 2010 04:07:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9994#comment-361266</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;I wonder how, if at all, this affects how Dave and DMZ view Johnny Damon. &lt;/blockquote&gt;

I don&#039;t see how this would effect their view on Damon at all.

One would argue that Xavier Nady is a much better fit that for this club than Johnny Damon is to begin with, seeing how he can play LF and 1B.

299 innings in logged at 1B in 2005, 240 in 2006, and one would probably convince a guy to be a RH platoon at 1B against tough lefties seeing how he&#039;s coming off a pretty major arm surgery.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>I wonder how, if at all, this affects how Dave and DMZ view Johnny Damon. </p></blockquote>
<p>I don&#8217;t see how this would effect their view on Damon at all.</p>
<p>One would argue that Xavier Nady is a much better fit that for this club than Johnny Damon is to begin with, seeing how he can play LF and 1B.</p>
<p>299 innings in logged at 1B in 2005, 240 in 2006, and one would probably convince a guy to be a RH platoon at 1B against tough lefties seeing how he&#8217;s coming off a pretty major arm surgery.</p>
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		<title>By: jordan</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/01/05/ms-maybe-to-trade-for-kotchman/comment-page-4/#comment-361244</link>
		<dc:creator>jordan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jan 2010 01:23:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9994#comment-361244</guid>
		<description>Mark my words, Kotchman will be good. We will look back at this trade as a obvious win at the end of the year.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mark my words, Kotchman will be good. We will look back at this trade as a obvious win at the end of the year.</p>
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		<title>By: hailcom</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/01/05/ms-maybe-to-trade-for-kotchman/comment-page-4/#comment-361098</link>
		<dc:creator>hailcom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jan 2010 19:37:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9994#comment-361098</guid>
		<description>I wonder how, if at all, this affects how Dave and DMZ view Johnny Damon.  The recent LF analysis assumed Hall in the mix.  Damon does not have significant platoon splits.  He would provide a 1.5+ WAR upgrade for LF or at least that&#039;s how it seems to project over Saunders, more over Langerhans (assuming Bradley mainly DHs).  Damon&#039;s options appear to be narrowing.  Maybe the $$ are still just too much to get him, even with the likely dropping price, but the trade for Kotchman makes this seem like more of a possibility.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I wonder how, if at all, this affects how Dave and DMZ view Johnny Damon.  The recent LF analysis assumed Hall in the mix.  Damon does not have significant platoon splits.  He would provide a 1.5+ WAR upgrade for LF or at least that&#8217;s how it seems to project over Saunders, more over Langerhans (assuming Bradley mainly DHs).  Damon&#8217;s options appear to be narrowing.  Maybe the $$ are still just too much to get him, even with the likely dropping price, but the trade for Kotchman makes this seem like more of a possibility.</p>
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		<title>By: joser</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/01/05/ms-maybe-to-trade-for-kotchman/comment-page-4/#comment-361075</link>
		<dc:creator>joser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jan 2010 18:13:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9994#comment-361075</guid>
		<description>Kotchman&#039;s BABIP in 2006 was an astonishingly low .169.  Now, that was just 88 PAs (in the year he was mostly out with mono) so it doesn&#039;t carry enough weight to skew his numbers completely, but it does make his career averages lower than you&#039;d expect them to be -- and should be discounted a bit in projecting forward.  

He may very well represent a good &quot;buy low&quot; candidate but he clearly won&#039;t be the offensive upgrade Branyan was unless he breaks out in a big way -- which of course is possible: &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=1930&amp;playerid2=1605&amp;playerid3=370&amp;position=1B&amp;page=8&amp;type=full&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;his .362 wOBA in &#039;07 was close to Branyan&#039;s .368 in &#039;09&lt;/a&gt;, and that was the last year he had a full-time job with the same team all season.  Still, it&#039;s a bit much to expect lightning in a bottle yet again (even Gutierrez isn&#039;t going to be Gutierrez 2.0).

But he&#039;s a LH batter without big platoon splits and he&#039;s young, cheap, has some upside (with breakout potential).  The &quot;major illness followed by positional/organizational uncertainty&quot; thing reminds me a bit of Carlos Guillen, actually.  

Plus his name is easy to spell (though it&#039;s not quite &quot;Bill Hall&quot;) and, hey, here&#039;s something: you know all those first round players Zduriencik has been trading away?  Kotchman was the 1st round pick (13th overall) for the hated Angels in &#039;01.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kotchman&#8217;s BABIP in 2006 was an astonishingly low .169.  Now, that was just 88 PAs (in the year he was mostly out with mono) so it doesn&#8217;t carry enough weight to skew his numbers completely, but it does make his career averages lower than you&#8217;d expect them to be &#8212; and should be discounted a bit in projecting forward.  </p>
<p>He may very well represent a good &#8220;buy low&#8221; candidate but he clearly won&#8217;t be the offensive upgrade Branyan was unless he breaks out in a big way &#8212; which of course is possible: <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=1930&amp;playerid2=1605&amp;playerid3=370&amp;position=1B&amp;page=8&amp;type=full" rel="nofollow">his .362 wOBA in &#8217;07 was close to Branyan&#8217;s .368 in &#8217;09</a>, and that was the last year he had a full-time job with the same team all season.  Still, it&#8217;s a bit much to expect lightning in a bottle yet again (even Gutierrez isn&#8217;t going to be Gutierrez 2.0).</p>
<p>But he&#8217;s a LH batter without big platoon splits and he&#8217;s young, cheap, has some upside (with breakout potential).  The &#8220;major illness followed by positional/organizational uncertainty&#8221; thing reminds me a bit of Carlos Guillen, actually.  </p>
<p>Plus his name is easy to spell (though it&#8217;s not quite &#8220;Bill Hall&#8221;) and, hey, here&#8217;s something: you know all those first round players Zduriencik has been trading away?  Kotchman was the 1st round pick (13th overall) for the hated Angels in &#8217;01.</p>
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		<title>By: G-Man</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/01/05/ms-maybe-to-trade-for-kotchman/comment-page-4/#comment-361066</link>
		<dc:creator>G-Man</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jan 2010 17:21:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9994#comment-361066</guid>
		<description>Good post, Gerry, I appreciate the detailed info.

However, it reminds me a little of Adrian Beltre&#039;s Dodgers career - one big season and an excuse for every other year.
 
Anyway, I&#039;ll keep the faith and look for a solid season from Casey.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Good post, Gerry, I appreciate the detailed info.</p>
<p>However, it reminds me a little of Adrian Beltre&#8217;s Dodgers career &#8211; one big season and an excuse for every other year.</p>
<p>Anyway, I&#8217;ll keep the faith and look for a solid season from Casey.</p>
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		<title>By: adroit</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/01/05/ms-maybe-to-trade-for-kotchman/comment-page-4/#comment-361063</link>
		<dc:creator>adroit</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jan 2010 17:12:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9994#comment-361063</guid>
		<description>I want to go on record as liking this deal.  I think sometime around May someone will link back to this post to reference how skeptical the general consensus was at the time the deal was made.  

Kotchman&#039;s minor league career left him at nearly a .900 OPS, and exhibited doubles power which often translates well into HR power as a player enters his prime.  His career BABIP in the ML so far is just .279-- it seems to be too low to be sustainable the rest of his career.  That is terrible and I don&#039;t expect it to continue.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I want to go on record as liking this deal.  I think sometime around May someone will link back to this post to reference how skeptical the general consensus was at the time the deal was made.  </p>
<p>Kotchman&#8217;s minor league career left him at nearly a .900 OPS, and exhibited doubles power which often translates well into HR power as a player enters his prime.  His career BABIP in the ML so far is just .279&#8211; it seems to be too low to be sustainable the rest of his career.  That is terrible and I don&#8217;t expect it to continue.</p>
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		<title>By: rsrobinson</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/01/05/ms-maybe-to-trade-for-kotchman/comment-page-3/#comment-361055</link>
		<dc:creator>rsrobinson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jan 2010 16:28:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9994#comment-361055</guid>
		<description>With Langerhans and Hannahan in reserve roles, Hall was redundant so he&#039;s no great loss.  Not a bad deal from the perspective of acquiring a cheap player with some upside.  Not a great deal, though, if the goal is to go for it in 2010 since Kotchman seems like more of a stop gap acquisition.
  
It could be that Jack Z&#039;s scouting instincts tell him that Kotchman is a guy who is potentially much better than what his previous numbers tell us.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With Langerhans and Hannahan in reserve roles, Hall was redundant so he&#8217;s no great loss.  Not a bad deal from the perspective of acquiring a cheap player with some upside.  Not a great deal, though, if the goal is to go for it in 2010 since Kotchman seems like more of a stop gap acquisition.</p>
<p>It could be that Jack Z&#8217;s scouting instincts tell him that Kotchman is a guy who is potentially much better than what his previous numbers tell us.</p>
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		<title>By: PackBob</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/01/05/ms-maybe-to-trade-for-kotchman/comment-page-3/#comment-361038</link>
		<dc:creator>PackBob</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jan 2010 09:00:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9994#comment-361038</guid>
		<description>My guess is that Kotchman is going to be given first base on a full-time basis to show what he can do, much like Branyon last year. I like Gerry&#039;s post, looking behind the numbers a bit. Kotchman&#039;s overall stats took a bit of a dive when he went to Boston and came off the bench. If he&#039;s a good defensive first-baseman, he may be worth more than his UZR ala John Olerud.

Seems also that the Ms are satisfied overall with Lopez. Adequate defense, decent driving in runs (he had the 2nd highest percentage of men on base turned into runs -- first? Gutierrez), and I&#039;ll bet they are going to work on his plate discipline.

The one piece I think that Jack Z intends to add is another quality starting pitcher. Not going after a more costly first-base option may leave him the money to do so.

Can&#039;t say until they start beating the ball with the bat, but on paper the move seems good to me.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My guess is that Kotchman is going to be given first base on a full-time basis to show what he can do, much like Branyon last year. I like Gerry&#8217;s post, looking behind the numbers a bit. Kotchman&#8217;s overall stats took a bit of a dive when he went to Boston and came off the bench. If he&#8217;s a good defensive first-baseman, he may be worth more than his UZR ala John Olerud.</p>
<p>Seems also that the Ms are satisfied overall with Lopez. Adequate defense, decent driving in runs (he had the 2nd highest percentage of men on base turned into runs &#8212; first? Gutierrez), and I&#8217;ll bet they are going to work on his plate discipline.</p>
<p>The one piece I think that Jack Z intends to add is another quality starting pitcher. Not going after a more costly first-base option may leave him the money to do so.</p>
<p>Can&#8217;t say until they start beating the ball with the bat, but on paper the move seems good to me.</p>
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		<title>By: Mr. Egaas</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/01/05/ms-maybe-to-trade-for-kotchman/comment-page-3/#comment-361029</link>
		<dc:creator>Mr. Egaas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jan 2010 08:26:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9994#comment-361029</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;I bet we simply needed a little extra cash to get Harang (and possibly another bat like Scott) into the fold, and this was the only feasible way for Zduriencik to do it.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Here&#039;s where the cash savings in.  To me it&#039;s looking like either a signing (Sheets?), or a play for Harang or Liriano (which would also mean a 2B signing if Lopez goes).  That&#039;s my best guess, save at 1B to spend it on the best 3rd SP in the league that gets paired with Felix and Lee.

I would love to see one of Nady (better fit) or Garko (cheapest) or Scott (lefty?), and a pitcher with what&#039;s left.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>I bet we simply needed a little extra cash to get Harang (and possibly another bat like Scott) into the fold, and this was the only feasible way for Zduriencik to do it.</p></blockquote>
<p>Here&#8217;s where the cash savings in.  To me it&#8217;s looking like either a signing (Sheets?), or a play for Harang or Liriano (which would also mean a 2B signing if Lopez goes).  That&#8217;s my best guess, save at 1B to spend it on the best 3rd SP in the league that gets paired with Felix and Lee.</p>
<p>I would love to see one of Nady (better fit) or Garko (cheapest) or Scott (lefty?), and a pitcher with what&#8217;s left.</p>
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		<title>By: Mr. Egaas</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/01/05/ms-maybe-to-trade-for-kotchman/comment-page-3/#comment-361028</link>
		<dc:creator>Mr. Egaas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jan 2010 08:22:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=9994#comment-361028</guid>
		<description>Another fun comparison.  &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kotchca01.shtml&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Baseball-Reference&lt;/a&gt;&#039;s top Similar batters through Age 26 for Casey Kotchman:

3. Nick Johnson (950)

The M&#039;s just traded a backup (whom was next to free last year), likely low minor league scrub, and some cash for a 26 year old elite defender with a top prospect pedigree who has shown on base skills in the past and is at the age where he could start to show more power.

I realize there were better options out there to be gotten to fill the 1B hole, but I like this better than going 2 / $17M rumored to be offered by the Giants for Adam LaRoche.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Another fun comparison.  <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kotchca01.shtml" rel="nofollow">Baseball-Reference</a>&#8216;s top Similar batters through Age 26 for Casey Kotchman:</p>
<p>3. Nick Johnson (950)</p>
<p>The M&#8217;s just traded a backup (whom was next to free last year), likely low minor league scrub, and some cash for a 26 year old elite defender with a top prospect pedigree who has shown on base skills in the past and is at the age where he could start to show more power.</p>
<p>I realize there were better options out there to be gotten to fill the 1B hole, but I like this better than going 2 / $17M rumored to be offered by the Giants for Adam LaRoche.</p>
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