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	<title>Comments on: Bedard Confirms Deal</title>
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	<description>Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion</description>
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		<title>By: ThundaPC</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/02/05/bedard-confirms-deal/comment-page-2/#comment-363874</link>
		<dc:creator>ThundaPC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Feb 2010 23:40:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=10134#comment-363874</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Anyone getting nervous that this season is too good to be true? Cause it looks sooooo good on paperâ€¦which always makes me nervous. 2008 team looked amazing on paper.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;a href=&quot;http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/09/running-the-2008-season-a-hundred-times/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Regarding the quality of the 2008 roster&lt;/a&gt;, well, &lt;a href=&quot;http://ussmariner.com/2008/05/24/bavasi-blissfully-unaware-of-real-analysis/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;that depends on who you ask&lt;/a&gt;.

While the hype level behind the 2008 and 2010 teams seem about the same that&#039;s where the similarities end.  After the Bedard trade in 2008, we had the pieces in place only to make a run at the division at best.  Too much needed to go right for the team to give the Angels a run for their money.

In 2010, this team is right in the thick of things even based on reasonable expectations.  If everything breaks our way we could potentially pull away from the pack.  Even if it doesn&#039;t work out, it&#039;s extremely unlikely we&#039;ll suffer anything remotely resembling what we went through in 2008.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Anyone getting nervous that this season is too good to be true? Cause it looks sooooo good on paperâ€¦which always makes me nervous. 2008 team looked amazing on paper.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/09/running-the-2008-season-a-hundred-times/" rel="nofollow">Regarding the quality of the 2008 roster</a>, well, <a href="http://ussmariner.com/2008/05/24/bavasi-blissfully-unaware-of-real-analysis/" rel="nofollow">that depends on who you ask</a>.</p>
<p>While the hype level behind the 2008 and 2010 teams seem about the same that&#8217;s where the similarities end.  After the Bedard trade in 2008, we had the pieces in place only to make a run at the division at best.  Too much needed to go right for the team to give the Angels a run for their money.</p>
<p>In 2010, this team is right in the thick of things even based on reasonable expectations.  If everything breaks our way we could potentially pull away from the pack.  Even if it doesn&#8217;t work out, it&#8217;s extremely unlikely we&#8217;ll suffer anything remotely resembling what we went through in 2008.</p>
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		<title>By: nathaniel dawson</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/02/05/bedard-confirms-deal/comment-page-2/#comment-363858</link>
		<dc:creator>nathaniel dawson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Feb 2010 18:44:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=10134#comment-363858</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Safeco is a much much better park for LHP&lt;/blockquote&gt;

That might be overstating it a bit. We know that it&#039;s a park that favors pitching, but we don&#039;t really know how that works out with left handers and right handers. We infer that it&#039;s better for lefties because it tends to increase power to LH hitters and decrease it for RH hitters, but we don&#039;t know to what extent it affects different handed pitchers.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Safeco is a much much better park for LHP</p></blockquote>
<p>That might be overstating it a bit. We know that it&#8217;s a park that favors pitching, but we don&#8217;t really know how that works out with left handers and right handers. We infer that it&#8217;s better for lefties because it tends to increase power to LH hitters and decrease it for RH hitters, but we don&#8217;t know to what extent it affects different handed pitchers.</p>
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		<title>By: Arron</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/02/05/bedard-confirms-deal/comment-page-2/#comment-363843</link>
		<dc:creator>Arron</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Feb 2010 15:51:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=10134#comment-363843</guid>
		<description>Bedard should be named Opening Day starter...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bedard should be named Opening Day starter&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: rsrobinson</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/02/05/bedard-confirms-deal/comment-page-2/#comment-363842</link>
		<dc:creator>rsrobinson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Feb 2010 15:41:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=10134#comment-363842</guid>
		<description>Even if Bedard is ready to start pitching in May like he hopes he&#039;ll presumably be pitching some rehab assignments in the minors first, and then will be on a strict pitch count for awhile.  Even if all goes well, the earliest I see Bedard really being turned loose would be July, and that&#039;s probably optimistic.

Still, this is a great move.  At worst the M&#039;s get little or no production out of Bedard and eat the $1.5M, which is chump change in MLB in the grand scheme of things.  At best he becomes the equivalent of a mid-season rent-a-player for the pennant run without having to give up any prospects for him.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Even if Bedard is ready to start pitching in May like he hopes he&#8217;ll presumably be pitching some rehab assignments in the minors first, and then will be on a strict pitch count for awhile.  Even if all goes well, the earliest I see Bedard really being turned loose would be July, and that&#8217;s probably optimistic.</p>
<p>Still, this is a great move.  At worst the M&#8217;s get little or no production out of Bedard and eat the $1.5M, which is chump change in MLB in the grand scheme of things.  At best he becomes the equivalent of a mid-season rent-a-player for the pennant run without having to give up any prospects for him.</p>
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		<title>By: Pine Tar</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/02/05/bedard-confirms-deal/comment-page-2/#comment-363841</link>
		<dc:creator>Pine Tar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Feb 2010 15:35:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=10134#comment-363841</guid>
		<description>Safeco is a much much better park for LHP.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Safeco is a much much better park for LHP.</p>
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		<title>By: Wolfman</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/02/05/bedard-confirms-deal/comment-page-2/#comment-363840</link>
		<dc:creator>Wolfman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Feb 2010 15:34:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=10134#comment-363840</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Can someone speak to the wisdom of having 1 righty (Felix) and 4 lefties in a rotation (Lee, RRS, Bedard, and Washburn)?

Is that an issue, or not?
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

I was thinking the same thing.  A trade for Harang would be great to balance out the rotation.  But who knows what the Reds would ask for him?  That may not be feasible.  If anybody could pull it off though, it would be Jack Z.  I LOVE that guy!

As for Bedard, I agree with Dave.  Temper the enthusiasm a little; but it is fun to think about a healthy Bedard following Felix and Lee!  What a playoff rotation that would be!  I had major shoulder surgery this year and I&#039;ll tell you, it can be extremely painful and frustrating.  I hope Erik pulls through and earns every one of those incentives.  That would bode very well for the Mariners.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Can someone speak to the wisdom of having 1 righty (Felix) and 4 lefties in a rotation (Lee, RRS, Bedard, and Washburn)?</p>
<p>Is that an issue, or not?
</p></blockquote>
<p>I was thinking the same thing.  A trade for Harang would be great to balance out the rotation.  But who knows what the Reds would ask for him?  That may not be feasible.  If anybody could pull it off though, it would be Jack Z.  I LOVE that guy!</p>
<p>As for Bedard, I agree with Dave.  Temper the enthusiasm a little; but it is fun to think about a healthy Bedard following Felix and Lee!  What a playoff rotation that would be!  I had major shoulder surgery this year and I&#8217;ll tell you, it can be extremely painful and frustrating.  I hope Erik pulls through and earns every one of those incentives.  That would bode very well for the Mariners.</p>
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		<title>By: Pine Tar</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/02/05/bedard-confirms-deal/comment-page-2/#comment-363839</link>
		<dc:creator>Pine Tar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Feb 2010 15:33:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=10134#comment-363839</guid>
		<description>Right now it seems that the Mariners have a lot of players that might work out.  Many are players who have had success in the past but have struggled recently due to injury, bad luck, or unknown reasons.  They could perform at their ceiling or they could crash and burn.  Players like Snell, Byrnes, Garko, Bedard, Wilson, Griffey, Kotchman, Bradley....  We are getting most of these players cheap.  Those that work are tremendous bargains, those that don&#039;t won&#039;t cost the team much. 

My intuition tells me that this team could be very good or just so so.  Now I&#039;ve seen tons of projections that show the Ms winning 87/88 games.  My question is: Are there any projections that include a standard deviation?  How do you account for a wide range  outcomes you combine a whole series of unpredictable assets?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Right now it seems that the Mariners have a lot of players that might work out.  Many are players who have had success in the past but have struggled recently due to injury, bad luck, or unknown reasons.  They could perform at their ceiling or they could crash and burn.  Players like Snell, Byrnes, Garko, Bedard, Wilson, Griffey, Kotchman, Bradley&#8230;.  We are getting most of these players cheap.  Those that work are tremendous bargains, those that don&#8217;t won&#8217;t cost the team much. </p>
<p>My intuition tells me that this team could be very good or just so so.  Now I&#8217;ve seen tons of projections that show the Ms winning 87/88 games.  My question is: Are there any projections that include a standard deviation?  How do you account for a wide range  outcomes you combine a whole series of unpredictable assets?</p>
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		<title>By: MarinersBoy</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/02/05/bedard-confirms-deal/comment-page-2/#comment-363838</link>
		<dc:creator>MarinersBoy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Feb 2010 12:30:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=10134#comment-363838</guid>
		<description>Anyone getting nervous that this season is too good to be true? Cause it looks sooooo good on paper...which always makes me nervous. 2008 team looked amazing on paper. I do believe in this team, Ive just been an Ms fan my whole life if u know what i mean. Sox had the curse of the Babe, Cubs got the goat curse... Mariners always get cursed with just unreal,bordering on absurd,Bad Luck. Not this year though right! GO MARINERS AND THANK YOU JACK FOR GIVING BEDARD ANOTHER SHOT!!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Anyone getting nervous that this season is too good to be true? Cause it looks sooooo good on paper&#8230;which always makes me nervous. 2008 team looked amazing on paper. I do believe in this team, Ive just been an Ms fan my whole life if u know what i mean. Sox had the curse of the Babe, Cubs got the goat curse&#8230; Mariners always get cursed with just unreal,bordering on absurd,Bad Luck. Not this year though right! GO MARINERS AND THANK YOU JACK FOR GIVING BEDARD ANOTHER SHOT!!</p>
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		<title>By: terry</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/02/05/bedard-confirms-deal/comment-page-2/#comment-363837</link>
		<dc:creator>terry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Feb 2010 12:24:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=10134#comment-363837</guid>
		<description>My hope is the guy logs about 100 innings of 4th starter type production and then hits his stride say in September.  To me this is a bet that he could be an impact pitcher if the Ms make the post season.

And there really isn&#039;t a lot of downside to this move flaming out....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My hope is the guy logs about 100 innings of 4th starter type production and then hits his stride say in September.  To me this is a bet that he could be an impact pitcher if the Ms make the post season.</p>
<p>And there really isn&#8217;t a lot of downside to this move flaming out&#8230;.</p>
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		<title>By: Catherwood</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/02/05/bedard-confirms-deal/comment-page-2/#comment-363834</link>
		<dc:creator>Catherwood</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Feb 2010 06:30:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=10134#comment-363834</guid>
		<description>Along with (apparently) everyone else, I like this deal a lot. What amazes me more, however, is that I&#039;m pretty darn fluent in French and the google translation from the French is bang on! Soon we&#039;ll just carry around little pocket devices to access the interwebs and they&#039;ll translate for us - what? You say that already happens?

But let&#039;s say he&#039;s more of a July return - assuming Washburn isn&#039;t in the mix, is the pre-Bedard rotation Felix/Lee/RRS/Snell/Fister? Obviously, we&#039;d have to see what happens in spring training, but is there anyone else obviously looking to horn in on the rotation?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Along with (apparently) everyone else, I like this deal a lot. What amazes me more, however, is that I&#8217;m pretty darn fluent in French and the google translation from the French is bang on! Soon we&#8217;ll just carry around little pocket devices to access the interwebs and they&#8217;ll translate for us &#8211; what? You say that already happens?</p>
<p>But let&#8217;s say he&#8217;s more of a July return &#8211; assuming Washburn isn&#8217;t in the mix, is the pre-Bedard rotation Felix/Lee/RRS/Snell/Fister? Obviously, we&#8217;d have to see what happens in spring training, but is there anyone else obviously looking to horn in on the rotation?</p>
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