Comments on: Calling For A Moratorium

By: e poc

e poc — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 06:42:17 +0000

Paul: I don’t think it’s invalid, per se, but it’s not a rigorous projection. There’s no uniform standard for the WAR projections, and the depth charts are pretty casually constructed. There’s no reason to take it seriously when there are more rigorous projection systems out there.

By: Paul B

Paul B — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 03:00:04 +0000

...

but both of those systems project the Ms as the worst team in the division, not the best. The sabermetrics/Zduriencik hype has now overwhelmed itself, to the point where some statheads are preferring optimism to data

I'm assuming you think this article by Matthew over at Lookout Landing is invalid?

By: thegroovewrangler

thegroovewrangler — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 01:37:23 +0000

I believe thatâ€™s exactly the sort of simplistic approach that Dave is complaining about.

You are right, it is simplistic. I might be swimming in the deep end of the cold medicine pool right now.
However, unless I’m reading into things that aren’t there, it seems that some posters have the view that being excited by the direction the team has taken is foolish (which I guess would be the backlash Dave warned about), and that the point of this post was for Dave and other stat-heads to “have it both ways” at the end of the season. I don’t agree with either opinion.

By: e poc

e poc — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 01:00:25 +0000

As I understand it, just about every team in the AL West projects to be around 78-86 wins, with the Mariners holding about a half-win edge over the next-best team. Right?

No. The first part of that first sentence is correct, but not the second part. I’m not aware of any formal standings projections other than CHONE and PECOTA, but both of those systems project the Ms as the worst team in the division, not the best. The sabermetrics/Zduriencik hype has now overwhelmed itself, to the point where some statheads are preferring optimism to data. This is why we should all take a step back and inject some critical thinking into the hype machine.

By: Mike Snow

Mike Snow — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 00:45:01 +0000

I donâ€™t see how the Mariners winning the division could be anything OTHER than a victory for sabermetrics.

I believe that’s exactly the sort of simplistic approach that Dave is complaining about.

By: thegroovewrangler

thegroovewrangler — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 00:12:01 +0000

Sabermetrics, as I see it, should be considered first and foremost a way to understand why things in the past happened the way they did. Then, taking that knowledge, you try to figure out what might happen in the future. As I understand it, just about every team in the AL West projects to be around 78-86 wins, with the Mariners holding about a half-win edge over the next-best team. Right? Nobody projecting a 100+ wins to my knowledge…
I don’t see how the Mariners winning the division could be anything OTHER than a victory for sabermetrics.
If, on the other hand, everybody on every team performs to projections and somehow we manage to win only 70 games, you’re better off developing better statistcal analysis rather than deciding it’s time to go back to ignoring everything but batting average and ERA. Think of it as a “we’ll try harder” instead of “don’t blame us.”

By: PackBob

PackBob — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 23:30:51 +0000

When did the Mariners become the Saber-Dream-Team of the future? All this is saying is that if things go badly, don’t blame us, but if the Mariners do well, it’s a victory for sabermetrics.

It feels like religion.

By: Boy9988

Boy9988 — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 23:18:21 +0000

No team stays on top forever; whatever the secret to their success is.

Not unless your the New York Yankees and have exorbitant amounts of money and buy whatever pieces your missing.

That’s what bothers me about the Yankees. They build just as many players as everyone else, but they can pay them stay around (ie. Jeter and Mo) and then they buy everyone else good players. And the Yankees weren’t always good when they didn’t have the highest payroll, but since they have, starting in about ’98, they ALWAYS have been there. And as long as they continue to have such an outrageous advantage in payroll, they will always be good. Money is the one strategy that will always work.

By: thegroovewrangler

thegroovewrangler — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 23:15:50 +0000

Does this mean I have to cease building the statue?

No, no… you just might want to wait and make sure the right year is inscribed on the plaque!

By: ChicoRuiz

ChicoRuiz — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 23:10:21 +0000

Dave, you sound like a front office executive who can say many of the same things most every spring. No team in this day and age relies entirely on any one tool, everyone should know that. Even the best fits analytically boil down to a hunch and/or a price tag. So to the critics of sabermetrics, or scouting, or even JZ, I would remind them of Teddy Roosevelt and “The Man in the Arena” speech. Welcome to the world of sticking your neck out–it’s tough out there!