Trading Cliff Lee

Dave · June 14, 2010 at 11:34 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

This post deals with where Lee might end up. If you’re interested in what his trade value is, check out this post at FanGraphs.

With the season basically over and focus shifting to the future, there’s one obvious big story left in this season – what will the Mariners get for Cliff Lee?

This is essentially the last drama of 2010 for Mariners fans. At some point in the next six weeks, the Mariners will trade Lee. Don’t buy into the smokescreen about keeping him around for the draft picks – at least one team will step up and make an offer that gives Jack Zduriencik significantly more value than he will get from keeping Lee and letting him walk at the end of the season.

Who will that team be? Well, the easiest way to guess is good old process of elimination. First, let’s throw out all the obvious non-contenders – that eliminates Baltimore, Kansas City, Cleveland, both Chicagos, Washington, Houston, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and Arizona. Lee won’t be going to any of those teams.

Among the teams that are currently contenders, let’s cross off cities where Lee doesn’t make sense – Tampa Bay, Florida, Colorado, Cincinnati, Atlanta, San Diego, Toronto, Philadelphia, Oakland, and San Francisco fall into that category. If any of those teams are buyers in July, they’ll be buying someone else.

That leaves the teams that could potentially be interested in Lee – both New Yorks, Boston, Minnesota, Detroit, Texas, both Los Angeles’, and St. Louis. Those are your ten potential destinations for Cliff Lee.

So, who’s the best fit? Well, as we talked about last week, the Mariners have a lot of holes on their 2011 roster, and they don’t have a lot of ways to fill those holes with limited budget space this winter. The Lee trade is going to be their best bet to get a player or two who they can slide right into next year’s team, and who could be a productive player almost immediately. I don’t think the M’s are going to be hunting for a bevy of A-ball prospects in this deal, no matter what their upside is – the emphasis is going to be on getting someone (or a couple of someones) who can get to Seattle in a hurry.

That makes St. Louis pretty unlikely. They simply don’t have a high level premium prospect to give up that will make the Mariners pull the trigger. You could probably say the same about Detroit and the Los Angeles Dodgers. It’s tough to imagine any of those three teams being able to put together a package of players that the Mariners would really fall in love with. There are good prospects in each system, but they’re not the right kinds of prospects, and there aren’t enough of them.

Of the remaining six, I’d call Boston a pretty big longshot as well. Theo has consistently sat out of big pitcher sweepstakes, determining the cost was more than he wants to pay in young talent. The Red Sox farm system isn’t in great shape either, so their only hope to get Jack Z to listen would be to include someone like Casey Kelly, who they’ve been adamant that they’re not trading. Their pitching staff is pretty good anyway. I just don’t see it happening, though it potentially could, so they go to the bottom of the final six.

Coming in not too far ahead of the Red Sox in the longshot category would be both AL West teams – the Rangers and Angels. While both could really use Lee in their rotation and have the chips to make an interesting offer, inter-division trades of this magnitude are pretty rare. Teams are generally loathe to give their competitors players who can come back and hurt them long term. While both teams would love to have Lee, they don’t want their star prospects beating them 19 times a year for the next six years. It might not be rational, but it’s how baseball works, and it makes it unlikely that the M’s will deal Lee to another AL West team.

So now, we’re down to three – the New Yorks and Minnesota. Last week’s speculation from Ken Rosenthal about Lee’s eventual destination has made a lot of people assume that the Yankees are the favorites, but I’d make them the least likely of this trio, honestly. It’s fine and dandy to suggest that Lee would make any rotation better, and while its true, its less true with the Yankees than any other team in baseball. Right now, their playoff rotation is Sabathia-Burnett-Pettitte-Hughes. Yeah, they could put Lee in the rotation and bump Hughes back to the pen to strengthen their relief corps, but is that the kind of upgrade that is going to make a big enough difference for Brian Cashman to give up a blue chip prospect? And we haven’t even mentioned Javier Vazquez, whom the Yankees liked enough to give up one of their top young arms for this winter. They’re not just going to discard any chance of him pitching meaningful innings in November no matter how badly he started the season.

So, really, I see two teams that make sense on most levels – the Mets and the Twins.

The Mets have the glaring need, with only three big league starters on their roster and a GM whose job is almost certainly on the line. Omar Minaya has shown a willingness to give up a bushel of prospects for an arm he believes could put him over the top, as he did when he traded Lee (along with Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips) to Cleveland for Bartolo Colon. The Mets have spent a lot of money to try and win, and yet, they are one starting pitcher short of being a legitimate contender. Lee would give them a real chance at grabbing the NL East title and playing well in October. And in Jenrry Mejia, they have the kind of dynamic young pitching prospect who the Mariners would see as a valuable long term piece who could also potentially be part of the 2011 rotation. The Mets could put together a strong offer for Lee built around Mejia. There’s a potential deal to be made there.

However, if I’m Jack Zduriencik, I’m praying every night that the Twins get heavily involved. The fit is almost perfect.

Lee is everything the Twins love in a pitcher. They groom a never ending supply of strike throwers who get outs despite not having big velocity, and Lee is the quintessential version of that kind of arm. Paired with Francisco Liriano, the Twins become a lethal post-season team. And, they have what the 2011 Mariners need – young, cheap, major league ready starting pitching.

The Twins could create a package for Lee built around either Scott Baker or Kevin Slowey that would certainly pique the Mariners interest. Rather than getting a prospect that you hope develops into something, the Mariners would be able to slide either of them right into the middle of their rotation, filling a big hole on the 2011 roster but providing future value as well. In addition, the Twins have a quality young catching prospect named Wilson Ramos who doesn’t have a future in Minneapolis thanks to the presence of Joe Mauer, and while he’s not that much different than Adam Moore, he’d offer the M’s another option at a position that has been a huge problem since Jack got to Seattle. A package of Ramos and a second prospect, along with either Slowey or Baker, is the kind of deal that the Mariners simply couldn’t turn down.

The Twins have the depth to make that kind of move without crippling their future, and could capitalize on the primes of Mauer and Morneau with a legitimate World Series run with Cliff Lee in their rotation. It makes the most sense of any deal possible. Lee was made to pitch for the Twins, and they have exactly the kinds of players that the Mariners are going to want in return.

So, don’t be surprised if Lee ends up in pinstripes this fall, but not the Bronx version. Lee to Minnesota makes sense on a lot of levels, and you have to think that both teams see the same things we do. There’s a win-win deal here where both teams benefit, and that’s why I’d put Minnesota as the favorites to land Cliff Lee this summer.

Comments

104 Responses to “Trading Cliff Lee”

  1. wsm on June 15th, 2010 11:01 am

    I have no problem with acquiring a guy like Montero who may do nothing but DH for us for the next 6 years. That job has been a black hole for us since Edgar retired. If you’re going to go defense first everywhere else, it makes sense to me to maximize the offensive potential of the DH position.

    Theoretically, its easy to find value at the position in the offseason. In reality, Jack Z is 0-2 the last two years in getting one.

    Talking playoff rotations is all well and good, but all of these teams are in no position to punt their 5th starters. The Yanks and Twins still need to win those games to get to the postseason. The Yanks are definitely more concerned with not giving more regular season starts to Aceves than who their 4th playoff starter may be.

    Likewise, the Twins would be much more inclined to make Blackburn a long reliever than ship off Slowey or Baker. I just can’t imagine a team shipping off a consistent member of their rotation in the middle of a pennant race, even to acquire someone like Lee. When has this ever happened? Sure Minnesota may be concerned about 2011 salaries, but they won’t deal with that until the offseason and definitely not at the expense of 2010.

  2. anothermekongplease on June 15th, 2010 11:03 am

    M’s rumored to be holding the Mets up for Niese and other prospects. If another team gets desperate then Mets may feel pressured and make a bad deal. Mets site says Twins are very involved in the Lee deal as well. Would love a 3 way deal that gets us prospects to flip for a stud outfielder or 1b.

  3. codybond31 on June 15th, 2010 11:03 am

    I’d also take one of these:
    Desmond Jennings-OF TB
    Yonder Alanzo-1B CIN
    Tim Beckham-SS TB

    BUT MY FAVORITE TRADE WHOULD AND COULD HAPPEN:
    Lee

    To MINN for:

    OF Delmon Young
    OF Aaron Hicks
    P “B” Level Prospect

  4. TomC on June 15th, 2010 11:09 am

    Dave:

    In discussing the potential for a trade with the twins you said: “And, they have what the 2011 Mariners need – young, cheap, major league ready starting pitching”

    This implies starting pitching is the Mariners most pressing need. Is that your contention? If so, why do you believe their need for improved offense is less than their need for improved starting pitching?

    Isn’t the need for “young, cheap, major league ready hitting” more of an issue for this team?

  5. BennyG on June 15th, 2010 11:09 am

    I’m not sure why TB, COL and ATL don’t make sense if the Yankees do make sense.

    If you put Cliff Lee with Garza and Shields, that’s a dominant playoff rotation. Price has been awesome this year – but he’s not playoff tested really. Neimann is also good – but Lee is much much better.

    Atlanta has Tommy Hanson, who’s been a bit inconsistant this year – but is good. They have Hudson, who has been solid – but beyond that, they don’t really have a shut down guy. Lee could do that for them. Plus they’re going to have to compete with the Phillies putting Halladay out there and the Mets having Santana.

    Colorado has Ubaldo, but no one else on their pitching staff is that dominant and some of their starters are quite young still. Ubaldo with Lee – that would be pretty dominant as well.

  6. Sports on a Schtick on June 15th, 2010 11:20 am

    I still think like a few others like the Rays might get involved. As good as Tampa Bay is they’re far from guaranteed from a playoff spot in any given year. Friedman might want to pull the trigger and create a devastating top three rotation to match up against the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies of the world.

  7. ivan on June 15th, 2010 11:24 am

    I read the Fangraphs piece about Montero’s value that Dave referred to. Among the prevailing comparisons in the comment thread is Paul Konerko.

    If this is accurate and if the question is: Do you trade Cliff Lee for a 20-year-old Paul Konerko who just MIGHT be able to catch for you, do you do it?

    For me, the answer is yes, today, right now. Why WOULDN’T they, if the Yankees were willing to deal him?

    Of course, they might not be, and all this might be just the rankest rosterbating. But it can’t hurt to find out.

  8. Leroy Stanton on June 15th, 2010 11:25 am

    The Rays will also be motivated to keep Lee away from the Yankees.

  9. tmac9311 on June 15th, 2010 11:28 am

    I think any team trying to make the playoffs should consider dealing for Lee. I agree the Twins make the most sense though. Especially if all things go right for us and our rotation looks like

    SP Felix
    SP Baker
    SP Pineda
    SP Vargas
    SP Fister
    Spot Starter RRS

    not that I expect Michael to light the world on fire, but if he could come up and Baker and him could fill 2-3 that be awesome. Even if we had Felix-Baker-Vargas-Fister could be a decent rotation with a fill in somewhere. Our large item pickups seems to have worked pretty well with pitching.

    And anything that could get RoJo off the team next year benefits us.

  10. BennyG on June 15th, 2010 11:31 am

    Is Pineda really going to be in our starting rotation next season? Seems like he’s a bit away from that (or at least starting the season there). I guess we’ll see what he does the rest of this year.

  11. G-Man on June 15th, 2010 11:32 am

    I’ll add another wrinkle to the deal. What if the Mariners include somebody else with Lee? I don’t have anyone specific in mind, but adding more value on this end should help, if for nothing more than covering the receiving GM’s butt a bit.

  12. rick m on June 15th, 2010 11:35 am

    Lee for Montero? Does George Costanza’s Dad know about this??

  13. Dave on June 15th, 2010 11:36 am

    The idea is the package would probably focus around Wade Davis…

    I’d be shocked – shocked – if the Rays traded Davis. They are notoriously impossible to trade with, especially when it comes to young talent. Don’t hold your breath on this one.

    Whats the argument for why Cincy doesn’t make sense and what would they buy instead?

    If they decide they need to add an arm for the second half, they’ll just call up Aroldis Chapman, not trade for Lee.

    This implies starting pitching is the Mariners most pressing need. Is that your contention? If so, why do you believe their need for improved offense is less than their need for improved starting pitching?

    Right now, the Mariners rotation next year is Felix-Fister (who is currently on the DL)-Vargas. That’s a huge problem. I know, the team’s offense is frustrating as hell, but it’s not the only problem the organization is facing.

    As far as trading for a young guy who can hit, that guy has to fit in to this team. LF is somewhat taken by Saunders, 3B is taken by Ackley pushing Figgins to the hot corner, and you’re not going to get a C/SS who can mash.

    So, if you want to trade Lee for a good young hitter, you’re basically left with first base, and there aren’t really any good 1B prospects who are going to be available for Lee. The teams that are going to be potential trade partners don’t have the guy that you’re looking for.

    Given that, the M’s best option is to get major league pitching in return, and then try to fill the first base hole another way.

  14. bat guano on June 15th, 2010 11:41 am

    Good write up Dave, but I think you are too quick to dismiss the Rockies as a potential trading partner. What’s your logic for saying they don’t make sense? Pair Lee with Ubaldo and you’ve got the best one-two punch in baseball for the playoffs. If they get Lee, the Rocks can spare a major league starter (say, De La Rosa, Francis or Hammel) and Chris Iannetta might be expendable if they got a back up catcher from us (adios, Rob Johnson). They’re also overloaded in the outfield with Fowler, Gonzalez, Smith, Hawpe and Spilborghs, so if we threw in a decent reliever and/or prospects maybe we could even get Hawpe in the mix to play 1B. They may not be willing to trade all of the people I’m suggesting, but there might be a fit and I just don’t see why they wouldn’t talk to us. Am I missing something?

  15. chris on June 15th, 2010 11:45 am

    That offer [Ramos and Revere] doesn’t even cover the value of the draft picks that Lee would bring after he leaves, much less make up for his value the rest of the year.

    I don’t agree. Ramos and Revere have to at least cover the value of the picks. They are somewhat known quantities, and they’re both good. The picks, while high, are question marks that could turn out to be complete busts for all we know. Even if they produce useful players, they won’t be MLB-ready for several years. Future uncertainty is not as valuable as present certainty.

    You’re implying that the Twins would trade both those guys for a low 2011 first-rounder and a sandwich pick, if such a trade were legal. No way would they do that.

  16. Utis on June 15th, 2010 11:54 am

    Can we expect a deal for Lee as good as the RJ for Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen, and John Halama deal with Houston? I would say that deal worked out well for both teams. Slowney or Baker plus prospect doesn’t strike me as being of the same magnitude.

    Also what about 3B or 2B? Couldn’t/shouldn’t the M’s be trying to upgrade there? It’s probably hard but I would expect them to try to move Jose Lopez now or this winter. It seems clear Lopez has no future with this team except perhaps as a super utility guy (1B, 2B, 3B).

  17. codybond31 on June 15th, 2010 11:59 am

    bat guando,

    great thought on the Rockies. It makes a lot of sense.

    I’d take a 2-3 player combo of:
    C-Chris Iannetta
    3B-Ian Stewart
    OF-Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, Brad Hawpe, maybe Seth Smith. Hmm… I like it

  18. nickwest1976 on June 15th, 2010 12:01 pm

    Carlos Gonzalez is not even close to available…he’s a big time talent and the Rockies aren’t moving him.

  19. djtizzo on June 15th, 2010 12:01 pm

    If a trade with the Twins does happen, Hicks and Ramos names better both be involved, throw them “the DA” or Saunders to make it happen. I like Saunders potential, but Hicks is a stud!

  20. luckyscrubs on June 15th, 2010 12:11 pm

    The latest from MLBTR.

    Rosenthal says the Cardinals, Reds and Brewers – yes, the Brewers – could be interested in Cliff Lee this summer. The Brewers could provide the Mariners with a hitter like Corey Hart or Mat Gamel and trade Lee to a third team for younger pitchers.

    Something like this makes a lot of sense with GMZ being very familiar with the Brewers prospects. Most importantly, this would increase the teams interested in getting Lee, but may not have the MLB ready players we need.

    Whatever happens, I hope this situation is resolved quickly.

  21. SonOfZavaras on June 15th, 2010 12:28 pm

    I’d be shocked – shocked – if the Rays traded Davis. They are notoriously impossible to trade with, especially when it comes to young talent. Don’t hold your breath on this one.

    Dave couldn’t be more right about this. It’s known in the industry as “like pulling your own teeth” to deal for young talent with Tampa Bay (unless they’ve soured on their own about somebody, like what happened with Delmon Young).

    I think the Twins ARE the best match, and would like to add a couple new wrinkles to a scenario agree with djtizzo, who types faster than I do, apparently:

    What if we offered to fortify their bullpen with a David Aardsma at the same time? It’s not a secret they need bullpen help.

    An arm like Slowey or Baker has GOT to come back to us, though- for both their logistical reasons and ours. Sure, we need hitters… but the rotation is every bit as problematic in 2011. The money from either being in arby years doesn’t bother me so much. I vote Baker, between the two.

    Baker is a pretty huge chunk of an expected return for Lee. For them to add the names I’d want: Ramos, Revere and Hicks- I think you include Aardsma and (wait for it) Carlos Triunfel.

    Let’s go mega on this one, all the way.

    I’m not sold on Triunfel in any way- I’ve maintained that Safeco isn’t the best park for HIM to hit 81 games in a major-league season for awhile.

    Lee-Aardsma-Triunfel for Baker-Ramos-Revere-Hicks. Who likes it?

  22. Dave on June 15th, 2010 12:36 pm

    The Twins aren’t trading Aaron Hicks.

  23. jephdood on June 15th, 2010 12:36 pm

    Lee-Aardsma-Triunfel for Baker-Ramos-Revere-Hicks. Who likes it?

    I think you’re over-valuing the two names after Lee. 🙂

  24. djtizzo on June 15th, 2010 12:53 pm

    I think Lee and Saunders for Hicks+ wouldn’t be asking too much and the Twins would consider it. They don’t need Ramos, but we also have Moore who has about the same potential as Ramos! Dave, you even mentioned that it’s not just Lee, it’s Lee plus playoff service plus 2 picks. So, this would not be too much to ask for Hicks, even without throwing in Saunders in my opinion! I only mention his name because of the log jam we would have untill Ichiro retired.

  25. SonOfZavaras on June 15th, 2010 1:06 pm

    They don’t need Ramos, but we also have Moore who has about the same potential as Ramos!

    IMHO, Ramos > Moore. I’m not soured on Moore at all, but put it this way: who’s better suited to back up Joe Mauer in Minnesota for the better part of a decade? Also, Ramos is three years younger than Moore.

    The Twins aren’t trading Aaron Hicks.

    Okee-doke. “Lee-Aardsma-Triunfel for Baker-Ramos-Revere-Hicks” doesn’t work, then.

    But if (for grins) we keep the mega-deal format, what variation DOES work?

    How about: Lee-Aardsma-Moore-Triunfel for Baker-Ramos-Plouffe-Revere?

    Lee-Aardsma-Triunfel for Baker-Ramos-Revere-Hicks. Who likes it?

    I think you’re over-valuing the two names after Lee.

    If so on Triunfel, then I’m far from alone. The guys is constantly ranked the second-or-third-best prospect we have in the system.

  26. pdxMsfan on June 15th, 2010 1:10 pm

    The Twins aren’t trading Aaron Hicks.

    What is the thinking behind this? It seems they aren’t that high on him as they’ve asked him to repeat A ball this year, while they have promoted Revere to AA. Are they more committed to Hicks than Revere? Who profiles as the better player?

  27. djtizzo on June 15th, 2010 1:16 pm

    Are they more committed to Hicks than Revere? Who profiles as the better player?

    Last I checked they have Hicks listed as a higher prospect, but he is a still pretty raw. If I remember right, I think he may even have been picked as a pitcher due to his arm strength and then converted to CF due to his natural athleticism. Not sure though, don’t hold me to that! Revere is good too though. Further along than Hicks right now for sure.

  28. Mike Snow on June 15th, 2010 1:22 pm

    Whats the argument for why Cincy doesn’t make sense and what would they buy instead?

    If they decide they need to add an arm for the second half, they’ll just call up Aroldis Chapman, not trade for Lee.

    I’m not suggesting it would make the Reds a plausible destination for Lee, but I wouldn’t count on Chapman being ready enough to have that kind of impact.

  29. SonOfZavaras on June 15th, 2010 1:26 pm

    A package of Ramos and a second prospect, along with either Slowey or Baker, is the kind of deal that the Mariners simply couldn’t turn down.

    Let’s get away from my “mega-deal scenario” for just a moment.

    Dave, if it’s to be Lee for Baker-Ramos-and-Player X…who has the strongest possibility of BEING that Player X in the Twins system?

    I know you’ve got some idea on who’d be a fit!

  30. abcd on June 15th, 2010 1:56 pm

    I’d like to believe we’ll get a big return on Lee but I don’t have as much faith in Z as the peanut gallery. I hope to be proven wrong…

    I don’t have a strong opinion about some of the rumored deals, but getting a poo poo platter led by a guy like Niese would be a disaster.

    I’m not sure why Dave thinks the Phils don’t have the ammo, I think a guy like D.Brown would be fantastic.

    I can’t believe the Royals have a better record at this point in the season and we are already talking about trading Lee…sigh.

  31. amnizu on June 15th, 2010 1:59 pm

    The Rays will also be motivated to keep Lee away from the Yankees.

    I think this is one factor that hasn’t really been addressed thus far.

    In the past the Yanks and Red Sox have gotten involved in trades that they weren’t really interested in to drive up the price of players and block trades to their competitors. I think this may be a reason why the Yankees are even in the mix, the M’s want them there to help set the market and the Yankees want be there to keep Lee out of the AL East. It behooves them both to talk to each other and the press right now.

  32. Leroy Stanton on June 15th, 2010 2:17 pm

    I think this may be a reason why the Yankees are even in the mix, the M’s want them there to help set the market and the Yankees want be there to keep Lee out of the AL East. It behooves them both to talk to each other and the press right now.

    I agree, and that’s why I’m officially starting a Matsuzaka/Kelly to Seattle rumor. It goes like this: Matsuzaka is tired of failing to live up to expectations in Boston and he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause to be closer to home and play alongside fellow countryman Ichiro.

    The Mariners will also receive highly regarded prospect Casey Kelly. The only details left to be worked out are how much cash is involved in the deal and Boston/Lee agreeing to a long-term extension.

    Do you think the Yankees will buy it?

  33. SonOfZavaras on June 15th, 2010 2:25 pm

    I agree, and that’s why I’m officially starting a Matsuzaka/Kelly to Seattle rumor. It goes like this: Matsuzaka is tired of failing to live up to expectations in Boston and he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause to be closer to home and play alongside fellow countryman Ichiro.

    The Mariners will also receive highly regarded prospect Casey Kelly. The only details left to be worked out are how much cash is involved in the deal and Boston/Lee agreeing to a long-term extension.

    Do you think the Yankees will buy it?

    No. They’ll realize it’s smoke because no bats are involved in the deal.

    They know we can’t afford to give up our one big chip in a deal that DOESN’T involve bats for 2011. I’m not even talking about the quality of said bats, I’m referring to the fact the M’s WON’T have a lot of money to fill a serious amount of holes on next year’s squad.

    (Although I’d admit that Matsuzaka would likely fill the need for a #2 or #3 starter, there’s other serious holes we have among everyday players and the bench for this to be a rumor easily bought into.)

  34. Leroy Stanton on June 15th, 2010 3:01 pm

    No. They’ll realize it’s smoke because no bats are involved in the deal.

    That’s once they’ve stopped laughing at the idea of someone wanting to play in Seattle.

    It really is too bad that a credible case can’t be made for Boston being in the mix.

  35. marinersunbird on June 15th, 2010 4:21 pm

    Bedard’s name hasn’t been mentioned. Hmmmmmm.

  36. lalo on June 15th, 2010 4:33 pm

    Why the Giants out of the mix? Imagine that they had to Lincecum, Cain, Lee. and Jonathan Sanchez, I would place as top contender to win the World Series. They could send to Buster Posey and some pitching prospect.

  37. lalo on June 15th, 2010 4:40 pm

    Why the Giants out of the mix? Imagine that they had to Lincecum, Cain, Lee. and Jonathan Sanchez, I would place as top contender to win the World Series. They could send to Buster Posey and some pitching prospect.

    I forgot, Zito, this rotation could be the best in the big leagues, even better than the Yankees or Boston

  38. SonOfZavaras on June 15th, 2010 4:41 pm

    Why the Giants out of the mix?…

    They could send to Buster Posey and some pitching prospect.

    I don’t think the Friscos have the cashola to be a factor on this. Plus not enough of a need. That rotation is pretty blasted good as it is, they’d be more in the market for an affordable bat.

    Lee’s contract is going to phase him out of most mid-markets’ do-ability charts. It’s not like he’s making peanuts, as is.

  39. GoldenGutz on June 15th, 2010 5:44 pm

    Why couldn’t we pick up the rest of Lee’s contract? More teams would be interested then. Technically we could go up to about 120m. And we are sitting at 91m right now. I have been on the Lee-to-Cincy bandwagon for a while. Get Alonzo and some other prospects. And to those saying “Cincy has enough pitching, they could call up Chapman if they need pitching.” Well Lee is better than anyone they had and they need a “true ace” Alonzo is also blocked by Votto. So he needs to be traded or just sit and rot. Throw in Aardsma as well and we can get another top prospect from them.

  40. pensive on June 15th, 2010 5:44 pm

    Has the budget for 2011 already been made public? If a player that improves the team is available and willing to play in Seattle (reasonable current market price) budget should be the least of ownership concerns. Empty seats are contagious.

  41. SonOfZavaras on June 15th, 2010 6:00 pm

    I have been on the Lee-to-Cincy bandwagon for a while.

    Cincinnati just doesn’t do rental-player trades with players of Lee’s caliber. I mean, virtually NO history of doing it.

    They’re on the outside looking in.

  42. uoduckfan33 on June 15th, 2010 7:23 pm

    This may have already been pointed out, but Baker and Slowey are both fly ball pitchers with good K/BB ratios who would definitely fit nicely with Safeco + Guti/Ichiro.

  43. tmac9311 on June 16th, 2010 6:09 am

    Seeing as some one brought up Bedard do you think there’s any chance someone would take a package deal, as in they don’t want to give up their top prospect, but we throw in the wild card of Lee and Bedard? Would any team legitimately bite at that, or does Bedard have to prove he can pitch first? I think that could help the Twins as well, although I think Bedard is also a lefty. I’m just not confident in Pavano/Baker/Slowery/etc. for the playoffs at this point in time. I suppose Bedard is right around that level too, so maybe I’m just talking out my ass.

  44. DMZ on June 16th, 2010 7:30 am

    Yeah, you essentially can’t trade guys on the DL.

  45. Miles on June 16th, 2010 11:33 am

    I like the Tampa route. Tampa is going to have some major pieces to sell. They have 3 guys for the middle infield and 3 catchers. They can afford to move Davis, Bartlett and Navaro. I see them as potential buyers and sellers. It will be interesting to see how they work it.

    For an arm like Davis and possibly a bat like Sweeney, whom the M’s could move to 1st or keep at third, I would think they could get Lee and some cash. Lee may put them over they top and they have Hellickson and McGee to replace him next year and 2 good draft picks to restock.

  46. loveMeSomeStats on June 16th, 2010 1:39 pm

    I was just reading the various posts about Cliff Lee’s value on here and on fangraphs as well as the post over there about “what the M’s should do”, and I had the thought…

    I wonder if people would have thought the Cliff Lee trade was the right trade to make at the time if they had known exactly what the 2010 M’s budget would be. As I recall, there was a lot of talk in the months afterwards about what additional pieces to acquire and that turned out largely to be no additional pieces (Kotchman/Hall trade, Garko, Byrnes, Sweeney … Figgins was already signed). Is Cliff Lee the correct acquisition if he’s your last piece (or nearly so)?

  47. Adam B. on June 17th, 2010 10:05 am

    I understand it’s almost certainly posturing, but Zduriencik is just making himself look ridiculous with this “Get back in it” talk.

    Stick a fork in ’em Jack; This team was cooked weeks ago.

    Personally I hope Omar Minaya goes all Bavasi and in a last ditch effort to save his sorry rear, offers us SS Wilmer Flores, RHP Jennry Mejias and RHP Brad Holt.

    Certainly Flores isn’t close to the majors yet, and doesn’t fill a position of immediate need, but his upside would be tantalizing, and he’d give our system yet another quality infield prospect.

    Mejias, as Dave has said, would be the other centerpiece; He’s not as polished as a Scott Baker or Kevin Slowey, but he has less service time and a much higher ceiling then Minnesota’s arms, and since the Mariners are going to be rebuilding for the next couple of years anyway, I don’t think they’d be hurt in giving him a little time to develop.

    Brad Holt would be the final piece of the trade and would give the M’s another power arm to potentially supplement next years bullpen.

    I understand that getting prospects of Flores and Mejias merit in a package together is not probable or even likely, but when provoked Minaya has a history of making just these sorts of moves, and he wont be any less desperate this year with his butt on fire.

  48. AdamJ on June 18th, 2010 11:10 am

    Dave,

    As a Twins fan, I think the idea of adding Cliff Lee is great. But I think your proposal sounds totally out of line. There’s no way that the Twins trade three seasons of control for Baker or Slowey plus six seasons of control for Ramos and Revere for a half-season of Lee. They don’t have the money to resign Lee at the end of the year because of salary increases due to Mauer and the rest of their roster.

    Really, this proposal sounds a lot like the Lester, Ellsbury, and Masterson or Hughes, Cabrera, and Austin Jackson rumors people in Minnesota kept hearing about for Johan Santana after the 2007 season. The Twins might be willing to trade both Ramos and Revere due to organizational strength at those two positions, but I don’t see them parting with a starter as well.

  49. 1986 on June 18th, 2010 11:44 am

    Nice analysis, Dave. But I think you come to the wrong conclusion. I doubt that the Twins part with either Baker or Slowey for Lee since they probably cannot sign him after the season and they do not want to be left with two holes in their rotation to fill over the winter.

    Your expectations on what Lee will fitch should be re-evaluated considering he will only be with the receiving team for 3 months. Johan Santana was traded for 5 players — only one of which has had any impact on a major league team (Carlos Gomez) AND that deal was a trade and sign — which ain’t gonna happen with Lee.

    When CC was traded to Brewers in midseason ’08, they gave up Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson and Taylor Green. Only LaPorta was a real prospect and he has struggled with the Tribe and was recently sent back to AAA.

  50. Steve Lein on June 18th, 2010 2:20 pm

    Twins guy here (http://twins.gearupforsports.com/blog/)

    To be blunt, I don’t think you’re going to get a Baker/Slowey AND Ramos type deal at this point for a rental who is 100% not going to resign with the Twins, even if 2 draft picks are involved on our end.

    It’ll be one or the other if it happens plus a few decent prospects (keep in mind, this is NOT the type of deal the Twins have EVER made).

    The FanGraphs article gives the evidence: “If you’re a GM shopping for Cliff Lee this summer, that looks to be the price – $15 to $20 million worth of value, which translates into one high quality prospect and a few fillers.”

    As for some names that have been thrown out there from you guys:

    CF Aaron Hicks – A Lee Rental does not land the teams #1 prospect (and he’s ‘untouchable’ anyway).

    SP Kyle Gibson – Can not be traded this season (1st year in Minors, didn’t sign until deadline day last year).

    LF Delmon Young – no way Twins deal him with the season he is putting together (you want Michael Cuddyer?)

    CF Ben Revere – He’d be an interesting piece of the trade, BUT, Twins would be up a creek without a paddle if Denard Span were to get hurt and he was gone.

    If I missed anyone, ask and I’ll tell you what I think.

    But, if I were to wager on a deal the Twins would offer up for Lee, it’d be this:

    – C Wilson Ramos (AAA) – he’s been hitting better recently, and his struggles have been traced to the fact he felt he should have been on the MLB Roster to start the season (which I agree with).
    – SP David Bromberg (AA) – Led his league in strikeouts the past 3 seasons with plenty of upside left. Could make a difference at some point next year.
    – OF Rene Tosoni (AA) – Shoulder injury limiting him a bit this year (currently on the DL), but had 44 XBH’s (15 HR’s), 71 RBI’s, and an .814 OPS at AA last year.

    That’s 3 of our Top 15 Prospects.

    If you want a pitcher for the MLB squad back for this year, Swap Ramos for Baker/Slowey. That’s what you can see yourself getting from the Twins for Lee (and the Bromberg-Tosoni names might be a little generous as well).

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