I would have to conjecture that it’s the combination of velocity and first-strike % more so than first-strike % alone.

Agree, though – move him back to the pen as the long reliever, he was successful that way, and he’ll probably peak at age 31.

really, the problem is Hyphen’s type of pitcher is very marginal- a low-K, low-velocity fastball LHP has almost no margin for error before he turns into someone you can replace (in fact, Luke French basically has an identical skillset- marginal fastball, lefty flyball pitcher).

Yeah, I can see that. Really don’t want to, because I’m really pulling for him based on his personality and what we know of his work ethic, but I see it.

Is a 3% difference in first strike rate really all that significant?

I don’t get this, either. So this year, three less times out of a hundred, RRS throws a strike on the first pitch. Which equates, optimistically, to one additional batter during a game. Throwing a first-pitch strike to one less batter yesterday doesn’t seem like it would have mattered much. Am I not understanding the deeper meaning of that stat?

Is a 3% difference in first strike rate really all that significant?

It’s roughly the difference between top-3rd of the league and bottom-3rd of the league.

Looking through the data at fangraphs, I don’t see any correlation with first strike% and success. Chris Carpenter, Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum all have their percentages 59% or under and it doesn’t seem to be hurting them. Likewise there are plenty of pitchers with high percentages that aren’t doing well like Rodrigo Lopez, Paul Malholm and Scott Baker.

If a starter goes through the lineup 3 times, the difference between 58% and 61% first strike percentage is about one batter a game. You can’t tell me that the difference between RRS’s 2009 FIP of 4.20 and his 2010 FIP of 6.79 is switching a first pitch from a strike to a ball once a game.

How about the fact that he’s given up 23 HR which is more than the last 2 seasons combined?

Halama’s xFIP by year (the ones we have):
4.01
4.59
4.60
4.38
5.19

Hyphen’s:
4.12
4.91
4.88
6.04

Halama put in those 5 seasons with SIX different teams, by the by.

The fact is that “flyball LHP without much fastball depending on pinpoint command” is and always will be a fringey skillset.

He plays in a park with good outfield defenders that kills RHB pull hitters (and conversely, helps LHP with flyball tendencies). Unless he’s going to a similar ballpark, a change of scenery is more likely to expose his flaws- getting half your games in Safeco with a Saunders/DTFT/Ichiro! OF is about as good as it gets for someone with Hyphen’s skillset.

That being said, sure, he plays on a better team where he is a bullpen/long guy/spot starter, he looks better, but really, the problem is Hyphen’s type of pitcher is very marginal- a low-K, low-velocity fastball LHP has almost no margin for error before he turns into someone you can replace (in fact, Luke French basically has an identical skillset- marginal fastball, lefty flyball pitcher). For every Jamie Moyer or Jarrod Washburn there are 10 or more John Halamas or Ryan Rowland-Smiths- guys who will eke out a career for a few years but that’s about it.

How much more do they need to see? They already thought they had it figured out in the mechanics changes they did in side sessions, and none of that translated to performance in-game.

Even if roster-wise there’s no harm, because you still get someone else pitching in his place, either switch him to the bullpen now and get an extended look at him in relief in real games, or DFA him. Nothing to date has given any reason to think he’ll be any different when he gets back.

He’s been up and down a few times with the Ms by now. Maybe he needs a change of scenery – look at all the players, especially pitchers, who seem to have done very well once they moved to another team…

Why? How does it hurt the team or RSS to take a couple of weeks, evaluate him in a few “rehab” starts, and so on, before making the next move? I fail to see the harm here.

Is a 3% difference in first strike rate really all that significant?

It’s roughly the difference between top-3rd of the league and bottom-3rd of the league.

Fangraphs

Carlos Silva at 70.1% … wow.