Happy Felix Day!

Saunders moves up… you know what, screw it. The line-up doesn’t matter. All this time being spent talking about batting order is just a giant waste of time. Batting order has a very small impact on a team’s performance over the course of the season. It just isn’t worth all this attention.

Ackley, 2B
Saunders, CF
Ichiro, RF
Montero, C
Seager, DH
Smoak, 1B
Liddi, 3B
Figgins, LF
Ryan, SS

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Game 39, Mariners at Indians

Josh Beckett is struggling mightily, and his velocity is down significantly, so this match-up isn’t quite as bad for the Mariners as the names suggest. Beavan probably can’t keep the Red Sox offense down by himself, though, so the offense is going to have to get to Beckett or the Red Sox fairly shaky bullpen.

Munenori Kawasaki getting his second straight start against a right-hander with Brendan Ryan back on the bench. He played the last few days against lefties, but clearly, his playing time is in jeopardy. If the M’s had a better option, okay, but Kawasaki isn’t it. It will be interesting to see how how this situation plays out, as there are several teams in the market for a decent veteran shortstop, and even with his lack of offense this year, his price tag and his defense would make him a tradeable piece. If Wedge is ready to give up on Ryan as his regular shortstop (and the front office isn’t prepared to overrule him on that decision), a trade might end up being the best option. Ryan’s glove is good enough that he should be playing most days, but given his age and injury issues, he’s probably not a long term solution. If a team like the Brewers (who just lost Alex Gonzalez for the season) came calling, Jack should probably see what they’re offering. There’s no real internal options to take over on a regular basis, but the Mariners are in a better position to punt production from shortstop than a legitimate contender, so if they have to go with some waiver claim/AAA guy for the rest of the year, it’s not the end of the world.

Also, Jaso back in the #2 spot in the order. Huzzah. Glad to see this has stuck, at least in the short term. Kudos to Wedge for making this move.

Ackley, 2B
Jaso, C
Ichiro, RF
Montero, DH
Seager, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Carp, LF
Saunders, CF
Kawasaki, SS

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Game 38, Mariners at Red Sox

Anyway, it’s true that Ichiro hasn’t been great with RISP this year. Here’s how his situational splits break down:

Bases Empty: .298/.330/.393, .318 wOBA
Men On Base: .281/.338/.391, .314 wOBA
RISP: .206/.282/.324, .257 wOBA

Now, here are Ichiro’s career situational split numbers:

Bases Empty: .326/.356/.427, .344 wOBA
Men On Base: .316/.392/.396, .330 wOBA
RISP: .317/.424/394, .331 wOBA

You can look at 39 plate appearances and decide that Ichiro can’t hit with men in scoring position, or you can look at 1,500 plate appearances and realize that he can. It’s really up to you, but what kind of conclusion you draw says a lot about your understanding of how the game actually works. People extrapolating from Ichiro’s 2012 RISP numbers either don’t have a grasp of how to actually use numbers or they’re pushing a predetermined agenda and won’t let facts get in their way. In some cases, both statements might be true.

But, hey, if you insist that 2012 situational data is meaningful, here’s some other names of guys who aren’t fit to hit in the middle of a batting order based on their RISP data to date:

Jose Bautista: .203 wOBA
Justin Upton: .209 wOBA
B.J. Upton: .215 wOBA
Jesus Montero: .229 wOBA
Troy Tulowitzki: .234 wOBA
Travis Hafner: .235 wOBA
Justin Morneau: .259 wOBA
Robinson Cano: .261 wOBA

Media members – you don’t have to believe whatever Eric Wedge tells you. He’s wrong an awful lot. Think for yourself, look up the facts, and don’t just repeat his ramblings.

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RISP Hitting

Except, you know, on the field, where those teams – the Angels, Tigers, and Marlins – have combined for a 50-56 record on the season, a .472 winning percentage.

It might come as a shock to some people, but lavish free agent spending really isn’t a magic formula for success. Who knew?

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Another Fun Fact

It’s raining in Boston, as it is in much of the country today, so this game may or may not happen.

As for Jason Vargas, he gets a good test tonight against a pretty good line-up and a left field fence that is not that far from the plate. I like Vargas as a solid back-end starter, but don’t get too carried away with his early season numbers. Despite the increase in strikeouts, his contact rate is actually up over last year, and his strike percentage is down slightly, so odds are pretty good that the increase in strikeouts is just random variation and he’ll get back to something closer to his usual strikeout rate as the season goes on. As usual, he’s displaying some pretty significant home/road splits, as Safeco is the perfect spot for his skillset, but Fenway is a bit less suited to lefty fly ball guys, so this isn’t a great match-up for him. If the weather affects his command at all, this could go poorly.

In terms of the line-up, Smoak’s back up to the 5th spot in the order thanks to his offensive exploits in New York. Let’s hope he keeps showing signs of life. Ackley’s DH’ing again with Seager sliding over to second base and Liddi playing third, but don’t read too much into this, as the team is in the midst of a stretch of 20 straight games played, so you’ll likely see all the regulars get a turn through the DH spot over the next couple of weeks.

Ackley, DH
Wells, LF
Ichiro, RF
Montero, C
Smoak, 1B
Seager, 2B
Liddi, 3B
Saunders, CF
Ryan, SS

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Game 37, Mariners at Red Sox

In this week, we have a walk-off grand slam, mention of a 27-game safely reached streak, possible breakouts from prospects that people have pinned a lot (too much?) of hopes on, the vagaries of splits, competent pitching in Tacoma (!!), a team going 2-4 while remaining in first place, and baseball baseball baseball baseball baseball.

To the jump!

Tacoma Rainiers (3-4 this week, 14-23 overall, 5 GB in PCL Pacific Northern)

The Week in Review:
Monday, May 7th 2012
Tacoma 10, Reno 13 (ARI – 3)
W: Lane (2-0, 7.45) L: Jimenez (0-1, 5.89)

Tuesday, May 8th 2012
Albuquerque 4 (LA + 7), Tacoma 2
W: Savage (6-0, 3.22) L: Marquez (2-3, 6.06) S: Wall (8)

Wednesday, May 9th 2012
Albuquerque 9 (LA + 8), Tacoma 7
W: Loop (3-1, 3.38) L: Ruffin (0-4, 9.00) S: Wall (9)

Thursday, May 10th 2012
Albuquerque 3 (LA + 9), Tacoma 2
W: Ely (3-2, 4.28) L: Grube (0-2, 9.90) S: Ledezma (1)

Friday, May 11th 2012
Albuquerque 0 (LA + 8), Tacoma 4
W: Carraway (1-0, 0.00) L: Antonini (1-1, 4.00) S: Perez (1)

Saturday, May 12th 2012
Round Rock 1 (TEX – 3), Tacoma 6
W: Ramirez (1-0, 2.25) L: Hankins (1-3, 3.09)

Sunday, May 13th 2012
Round Rock 1 (TEX – 4), Tacoma 9
W: Vasquez (4-2, 5.22) L: Ramirez (4-3, 6.21)

Hitter of the Week:
DH/1B Luis Antonio Jimenez, L/L, 5/7/1982
5 G, 20 AB, 3 R, 9 H, 4 2B, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 1/2 K/BB, .450/.500/.950

I didn’t expect to be highlight The Power Sphere two weeks in a row, but when he’s slugging nearly a thousand it’s harder for me to say “yeah, he’s hitting, but this other guy who’s hitting way worse in relative terms is an actual prospect.” The things I have to put up with. To recap, Jimenez is hitting .476/.569/.905 in May over eleven games, after hitting just .231/.326/.436 in April, which was still better than a lot of guys hit. He’s also only suffering a platoon split of about a hundred points for the season (lest his numbers against right-handers be even more insane) and he’s OPSing over 1.000 for the season. It’s hard to see a place for him on the roster when we’re giving DH at-bats to Carp, Jaso, and Montero, but baseball is dumb and plenty of things can happen in a season.

U.S. Citizen? Mention:
OF/DH Johan Limonta, L/L, 8/4/1983
5 G, 17 AB, 3 R, 7 H, 2 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 5/1 K/BB, .412/.444/.706

Sustained Relevant Hitting! Mention:
SS Carlos Triunfel, R/R, 2/27/1990
7 G, 27 AB, 7 R, 10 H, 3 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 7/2 K/BB, HBP, .370/.433/.593

2B Luis Rodriguez, S/R, 6/27/1980
7 G, 23 AB, 7 R, 10 H, 2B, RBI, SB, 4/4 K/BB, HBP, .435/.536/.478

Pitcher of the Week:
RHP Andrew Carraway, 9/4/1986
1-0, GS, 0.00 ERA in 7.1 IP, H, 4/1 K/BB, 7/8 G/F

Coming into the week, I had expected that Ramirez would be given a couple of starts, providing me something additional to care about in the Tacoma rotation, but I did not anticipate Carraway. Nor did I anticipate Carraway’s results. Carraway was perfect through the first six innings on his way to ending Tacoma’s seven-game losing streak, and that was enough to get him a story in the TNT, a feature on MiLB.com, and a Built to Spill reference from Mike Curto, and I can’t imagine that he gives those out to just anyone. The prospect-watcher in me wants more Ks, obviously, but the results against a good-hitting Albuquerque team are not to be dismissed. The other three pitchers in Jackson will likely be slower coming along, so if ever there were a year for Carraway to try to break into the big leagues, this is it.

Also Maybe a Starting Candidate! Mention:
RHP Erasmo Ramirez, 5/2/1990
1-0, 2 GS, 2.25 ERA in 8.0 IP, 9 H, 2 R, 6/0 K/BB, 12/4 G/F, HB

Knocking Louder Mention:
RHP Stephen Pryor, 7/23/1989
0-0, 3 G, 0.00 ERA in 4.0 IP, H, 7/2 K/BB, 1/2 G/F WP

Competent Relief! Mention:
LHP Sean Henn, 4/23/1981
0-0, 2 G, 0.00 ERA in 4.0 IP, 2 H, 6/2 K/BB, 5/1 G/F

From The Training Room:
Monday set off a series of transactions, as RHP Stephen Pryor got the promotion to Tacoma. In Jackson, he had been striking out 39.3% of the batters he faced, walking just 8.2%, and allowing hits to 11.5%. So, to parse that out a bit, he was ringing up about twice as many batters as were permitted to reach against him. Kind of a big deal. The loser in the exchange was LHP Mauricio Robles, who had been running a sub-1.00 K/BB. The hope is that he’ll figure out how to throw strikes somewhere else. Good luck with that… Wednesday afternoon, OF Carlos Peguero was activated from the DL after roughly four and a half weeks dealing with the knee thing. He had a couple of singles his first night back. He also struck out three times. Bless him. OF Mario Yepez was sent back to Clinton to make room… Thursday brought more movement, as RHP Brian Sweeney went on the DL with a sprained neck/concussion which does not sound good at all. That resulted in RHP Andrew Carraway coming in from Jackson. He had been running a 3.12 tRA in Jackson, and with the variation of league tRA, that’s a bit worse in the larger scheme of things than it was last year. He’s striking out more guys but also allowing more line drives it seems. I don’t know.

Strange Happenings:
Brandon Bantz has only played in nine games, but is batting .357/.367/.607 in those nine games. He’s the best… Anthony Vasquez opened Sunday’s game with consecutive strikeouts. Minds were in fearful anticipation of being blown. Then he struck out one the rest of the way. Keep at it, champ… Snow might have garnered a mention here, but he faced two batters in the seventh inning on Wednesday and the result was a two-run shot. Otherwise, his line was 6.0 IP, 6 H (HR), 5 R, 8/2 K/BB, 2/5 G/F, 2 WP… Jeff Marquez, a right-hander, had two pickoffs at first on Tuesday… Curto notes that Perez’ save of Carraway’s game was his first since 2000 when he was in the Mexican League.

Here is an exchange between a co-worker and me on Friday:
Co-worker: “They should call up that Pryor guy from Tacoma.”
Me: (blank stare)
Co-worker: “I hear he’s throwing like a hundred miles an hour.”
Me: “No, I know who he is, I’m just surprised that you do.”
Co-worker: “What? I read the paper.”

How far we have come.

Jackson Generals (2-4 this week, 22-15 overall, 1st in SL North)

The Week in Review:
Monday, May 7th 2012
Huntsville 6 (MIL + 4), Jackson 5
W: Thornburg (4-0, 1.98) L: Garrison (1-1, 1.29) S: Wooten (7)

Tuesday, May 8th 2012
Huntsville 2 (MIL + 5), Jackson 1
W: Anundsen (2-1, 2.48) L: Paxton (3-1, 2.60) S: Wooten (8)

Wednesday, May 9th 2012
Huntsville 4 (MIL + 6), Jackson 2
W: Heckathorn (2-1, 3.54) L: Moran (0-2, 0.57) S: Sanchez (2)

Thursday, May 10th 2012
Huntsville 3 (MIL + 7), Jackson 2 (eleven innings)
W: Wooten (3-0, 1.74) L: Medina (1-3, 5.85) S: Seidel (1)

Friday, May 11th 2012
Jackson 2, Tennessee 1 (CHC – 6)
W: Hultzen (3-3, 1.91) L: Raley (1-2, 3.50) S: LaFromboise (1)

Saturday, May 12th 2012
Jackson 9, Tennessee 2 (CHC – 7)
W: Garrison (2-1, 0.75) L: Struck (4-3, 3.86)

Sunday, May 13th 2012
Rain out

Hitter of the Week:
DH Joe Dunigan, L/L, 3/29/1986
5 G, 18 AB, 2 R, 5 H, 2B, 3B, RBI, SB, CS, 6/3 K/BB, 2 HBP, .278/.435/.444

When he was in High Desert, one of the things I talked about regarding Dunigan was that he was capable of doing interesting things, like showing plate discipline or hitting for power, but he wasn’t often doing them at the same time and that in and of itself was concerning. Dunigan has walked five times in May, and his on-base percentage is 101 points above his average. In April, he drew four walks total and had an on-base percentage thirty points higher than his average. Also during April, he had 59.3% extra-base hits and had seven dingers. His isolated slugging was .337. This month, 23.1% of his hits have gone for extras. His isolated slugging is .100. The more things change, the more they stay the same in some cases.

Undersung Mention:
UT Eric Campbell, R/R, 8/6/1985
6 G, 21 AB, 2 R, 6 H, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 3/4 K/BB, .286/.385/.381

Pitcher of the Week:
RHP Brandon Maurer, 7/3/1990
0-0, GS, 3.00 ERA in 6.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 7/0 K/BB, 5/2 G/F, BK, HB

Thus far, Maurer has been the forgotten man in the rotation, which wasn’t really what I expected. Overshadowed by pitchers with superior command? Certainly. Not mentioned at all? Unexpected, particularly when he leads the team in innings pitched. A huge component of this is that his strikeouts have been uncharacteristically low. This marked the first time this season that he’d struck out more than three in a start. For his career, he’s posted a K/9 under nine just once in a season. Strikeouts, and to a lesser extent walks, had been a given. I’ll credit him here though for context: Huntsville is one of the best hitting teams in the league (though poor at walking) and rank second to last in strikeouts. A performance like this would seem to be legit.

Some Wildness #1 Mention:
LHP James Paxton, 11/6/1988
0-1, GS, 3.00 ERA in 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 7/3 K/BB, 5/4 G/F, 2 WP

Some Wildness #2 Mention:
LHP Danny Hultzen, 11/28/1989
1-0, GS, 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP, 2 H, 2/4 K/BB, 8/3 G/F, WP

Sliding into Closer Role Mention:
RHP Carter Capps, 8/7/1990
0-0, 2 G, 0.00 ERA in 3.0 IP, 2 H, 4/0 K/BB, 3/2 G/F

Extra Pitching Notes:
Some might be questioning, “Why Maurer over Paxton and Hultzen, particularly when Hultzen didn’t allow too many base runners?” It’s the walks really. Huntsville has the second fewest walks drawn, just ahead of the good ol’ Generals, and Tennessee is just ahead of them. There are teams that you probably can’t avoid giving out walks to, but those that you can, you probably should. Besides, Hultzen had 60 of 95 pitches for strikes, and still managed to walk four? That’s just weird. And he’s only managed two starts so far where he’s walked fewer than three. Anyway, to cover the last head of Cerberus, Taijuan Walker had a weak outing this week, lasting just four innings and giving up two runs on four hits, two walks and four Ks. He probably hit a pitch count and then got the hook.

From the Training Room:
The stuff with Pryor/Robles has already been covered. Also happening on Monday, RHP Moises Hernandez, aka Felix’s bro, hit the DL with a shin contusion, and LHP Steve Garrison came off it. Because of the recent doubleheader in Pensacola, the rotation was left off-balance and Garrison was immediately used to spot start and stagger it out into its normal order. Which will now include Garrison anyway. More on that later. Concurrently with that, IF Eddy Martinez-Esteve was reinstated from the DL and released. EM-E was the third-round pick of the M’s in 2002, and then the second-round pick of the Giants in 2004. He had various health issues and his development was hampered by that… Tuesday afternoon, RF Johermyn Chavez went on the DL (hamate bone) and LF Daniel Carroll (dislocated shoulder) came off it. Thanks to Larry Stone for the causes there… There was no immediate corresponding pitching move to Carraway going to Tacoma, but there was a hitting move as 1B Rich Poythress hit the DL with a sprained left foot and IF Steve Proscia was promoted to Jackson. Proscia was hitting .431/.453/.843 at home and .286/.333/.329 on the road for the Mavericks. This should be a learning experience for him… Nick Franklin was used gingerly this week. That seems like a word I should scope out the etymology for.

Strange Happenings:
Almonte only had three hits this week, but that’s less concerning to me. What I like is the fact that he walked seven times, which is two times more than he struck out… This is the line from Steve Garrison’s second start: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1/0 K/BB, 3/0 G/F… Ken Griffey, Jr. dropped in on the Generals last week to hang out for a while. Griffey!

High Desert Mavericks (3-3 this week, 20-17 overall, 1st in CAL South)

The Week in Review:
Monday, May 7th 2012
High Desert 3, Lake Elsinore 6 (SD + 1)
W: Roach (6-0, 1.93) L: Elias (3-2, 2.39) S: Quackenbush (8)

Tuesday, May 8th 2012
High Desert 4, Lake Elsinore 3 (SD 0)
W: Smith (2-0, 3.46) L: Quigley (2-1, 2.45)

Wednesday, May 9th 2012
High Desert 6, Lake Elsinore 5 (SD – 1)
W: Burgoon (2-1, 9.00) L: Quackenbush (0-1, 1.23) S: Arias (4)

Thursday, May 10th 2012
Rancho Cucamonga 7 (LA – 4), High Desert 6
W: Smith (1-0, 2.93) L: Raga (0-1, 2.35) S: McGough (2)

Friday, May 11th 2012
Rancho Cucamonga 13 (LA – 3), High Desert 11
W: Wilborn (1-0, 6.23) L: Smith (2-1, 4.91) S: Eadington (1)

Saturday, May 12th 2012
Rancho Cucamonga 12 (LA – 4), High Desert 13
W: Arias (2-2, 4.42) L: Stem (0-1, 9.00)

Sunday, May 13th 2012
Off day

Hitter of the Week:
OF Mike McGee, R/R, 3/7/1989
5 G, 16 AB, 5 R, 5 H, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 1/2 K/BB, HBP, .313/.400/.875

Here’s a player I don’t talk much about. So Mike McGee! McGee was our 14th-round pick last year. In 2010, he won the inaugural John Olerud Two-Way Player of the Year Award. You see, in addition to being an outfielder, he was also the closer for the Florida State Seminoles. He was initially listed as a RHP when we picked him, but that was quickly rectified. Expect him to show up some time in a blowout. Since I’m talking about him specifically as a hitter, this year he’s showing no L/R splits, but he’s batting .372/.429/.767 at home and .255/.359/.345 on the road, which means he’s one of the guys that I’m concerned about in the long run.

Walk-Off Grand Slam Mention:
2B Stefen Romero, R/R, 10/17/1988
4 G, 18 AB, 4 R, 8 H, 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 3/0 K/BB, .444/.421/.833

Still Has Better Road Numbers Than Home Numbers Mention:
OF Julio Morban, L/L, 2/13/1992
6 G, 23 AB, 4 R, 7 H, 3 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, SB, 8/2 K/BB, .304/.360/.696

Contact-Hitting in May Mention:
3B Mario Martinez, R/R, 11/13/1989
5 G, 19 AB, 5 R, 6 H, 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 6/0 K/BB, HBP, .316/.350/.684

On-Base Ability! Mention:
OF James Jones, L/L, 9/24/1988
5 G, 15 AB, 5 R, 4 H, 3B, 2 RBI, CS, 5/5 K/BB, .267/.450/.400

Pitcher of the Week:
LHP James Gillheeney, 11/8/1987
0-0, GS, 3.60 ERA in 5.0 IP, 4 H (2 HR), 2 R, 8/1 K/BB, 5/1 G/F

Thursday’s game was an ordinary one at Mavericks Stadium. Which is to say that the wind was blowing fifteen miles an hour out to center field. Which is to say the teams combined for five dingers. Which is to say that the results of Gillheeney wound up looking a bit worse than how he pitched, seeing as how he struck out 40% of the batters he faced. It also represented something of a rebound for Gillheeney, or rather, one of his better commanded outings. Last time out, at Visalia, he had a 2/3 K/BB with a couple of dingers allowed among seven total hits. Two outings before, he had a 2/4 K/BB in 5.1 innings at San Jose, but evaded most trouble of the run-scoring variety. The overall line just looks fine for him because he’s sprinkled in outings like this, but he hasn’t gone more than five and a third yet and he has spots where he’s struggled to get strikeouts. I don’t know what his deal is, but let’s just say for now that the numbers might be a little misleading on a few different fronts.

Perhaps, If Not For the Unearned Runs Mention:
RHP George Mieses, 5/3/1991
0-0, GS, 1.50 ERA in 6.0 IP, 5 H, 4 R (ER), 4/1 K/BB, 6/7 G/F, HB

From the Training Room:
OF Julio Morban didn’t have to spend too long on the DL, as he came off it on Monday and almost immediately resumed hitting. I sure wish he could stay healthy somehow! IF Carlos Ramirez was transferred to Clinton to make room… Since Proscia left, another move had to be made and that was C/UT Jack Marder coming off the DL yay. His first game back was in left field. Coleman remains with the team as a third catcher. Marder has gone 5-for-15 with two doubles and a walk since coming back.

Strange Happenings:
A curious thing happened Saturday night. It was late and I was waiting for the Mavericks box score to go final. Drawing into the eighth inning, the Quakes had just scored four runs to put them ahead 6-7. When they scored another run to open the inning, I figured that would be that, but then the Mavs scored two in the bottom half of that inning, on various singles, doubles, walks, and wild pitches. “It could go to extras,” I thought to myself. That thought was quickly displaced by resignation, as the Quakes scored four runs in the top half of the ninth, and what had been an 8-8 tie quickly turned into a 8-12 deficit. “Oh well,” I thought, “process over results and at least I won’t be stuck waiting here indefinitely.” I was right about part of that as the bottom half of the inning came around.

High Desert Bottom of the 9th
• Mike McGee doubles (8) on a fly ball to right fielder Brian Cavazos-Galvez.
• Mario Martinez grounds out, third baseman C. J. Retherford to first baseman Austin Gallagher. Mike McGee to 3rd.
• James Jones walks.
• Brad Miller out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Leon Landry. Mike McGee scores.
• Jack Marder walks. James Jones to 2nd.
• Kevin Rivers walks. James Jones to 3rd. Jack Marder to 2nd.
• Pitcher Change: Craig Stem replaces Eric Eadington.
• Stefen Romero hits a grand slam (5) to center field. James Jones scores. Jack Marder scores. Kevin Rivers scores.

… The bullpen allowed 17-of-22 inherited runners to score this week. Wheeeeee!… Miller has been down to one or two errors a week. It’s not great, but much improved over the start to the season. Hicks has been allowing about one passed ball a week. That’s…. bad.

Clinton Lumberkings (1-6 this week, 12-24 overall, 10.5 GB in MWL Western)

The Week in Review:
Monday, May 7th 2012
Burlington 2 (OAK – 2), Clinton 5
W: Hobson (1-5, 4.26) L: Powers (2-2, 4.91) S: Griffin (1)

Tuesday, May 8th 2012
Burlington 7 (OAK – 1), Clinton 0
W: Murphy (3-2, 1.23) L: Hidalgo (1-4, 5.24)

Wednesday, May 9th 2012
Clinton 2, Kane County 5 (KC – 1)
W: Giovenco (2-2, 6.28) L: Hunter (0-2, 2.57) S: Graffeo (7)

Thursday, May 10th 2012
Clinton 3, Kane County 5 (KC 0)
W: Yambati (1-0, 3.60) L: Taylor (1-2, 5.25)

Friday, May 11th 2012
Clinton 7, Kane County 8 (KC + 1)
W: Ridings (2-1, 2.66) L: Kohlscheen (1-1, 5.29)

Saturday, May 12th 2012
Clinton 1, Beloit 3 (MIN + 6)
W: Summers (3-2, 4.02) L: Hobson (1-6, 4.36) S: Williams (6)

Sunday, May 13th 2012
Clinton 1, Beloit 3 (MIN + 7)
W: Tomshaw (2-1, 2.54) L: Hidalgo (1-5, 5.40) S: Tonkin (2)

Hitter of the Week:
LF Guillermo Pimentel, L/L, 10/5/1992
7 G, 21 AB, 11 H, 4 2B, 5 RBI, SB, CS, 6/3 K/BB, HBP, .524/.600/.714

A couple weeks ago, people were asking me how long the leash was with Pimentel, and my stock answer based on Morla and Littlewood was that, as bad as he was hitting in April (worse than either of those two did last year), he’d probably get a couple of weeks in May and then get the hook. Guillermo, forgive my sins. This week, he’s been showing plate discipline, hitting for extra bases, and showing off all around. But because I can’t go through any performance this positive without being a terrible buzz kill, both Kane County and Beloit are known to give up their share of hits and Pimentel is hitting an absurd .042/.080/.042 against left-handed pitchers in his paltry 24-at-bat sample this year. Things to worry about if you are a worrier.

Walks in Six Consecutive Games! Mention:
RF Jabari Blash, R/R, 7/4/1989
7 G, 22 AB, R, 5 H, 2B, 3B, 2 RBI, 6/6 K/BB, HBP, .227/.414/.363

Pitcher of the Week:
RHP Stephen Landazuri, 1/6/1992
0-0, GS, 1.50 ERA in 6.0 IP, 7 H, 5/0 K/BB, 6/0 G/F

With younger pitchers, you often find yourself scrutinizing various trends in their development and trying to make sense of what’s going on with them based off of the subtle shifts that might occur from one month to the next. Take Landazuri as an example, even if our May sample is presently a little short. In April, he walked 9.1% of the batters he faced and had a .165 average against. Now in May, his walk rate is 2% and other teams are hitting .277 off him. There’s a slight shift in Ks too, from 20.9% to 18.4%, but mostly what we’re seeing is that, after missing the strikezone a lot in April, he’s been more around it in. Let’s see if he manages to adjust again to reduce the hits while not increasing the walks that much.

In Command in May Mention:
LHP Cameron Hobson, 4/10/1989
1-1, 2 GS, 3.65 ERA in 12.1 IP, 15 H (HR), 5 R, 9/1 K/BB, 12/11 G/F, 2 HB

Not So Much in Command Mention:
LHP Jordan Shipers, 6/27/1991
0-0, GS, 1.50 ERA in 6.0 IP, 2 H, R, 2/4 K/BB, 8/7 G/F, BK

From the Training Room:
The biggest shake-up on Monday was happening in Clinton. In addition to adding Ramirez, the Lumberkings picked up middle infielder Bryan Brito and RHP Ben Cornwell. RHP Wes Alsup, IF Jean Acevedo, and OF Alfredo Morales all went back to Peoria. I’m only slightly bothered by the loss of Acevedo, since Morales wasn’t getting playing time and Alsup was struggling to throw strikes. The addition of Brito is probably the most interesting as he seems to have his fans in the organization right now and it would be nice to add to the infield depth… Yepez came back later in the week. I think that’s because 3B Ramon Morla is on the DL, seeing as how he hasn’t played since the 5th.

Strange Happenings:
Something that I picked up in the game notes, and probably mentioned at some point this year, but Jamal Austin has hit safely in 23 of 27 games and has reached base in every single game since April 14th. The weird thing about that streak? He’s only the second-longest streak in minor league baseball, and the other guy is in the MWL too… Shipers CG shutout last week was the first thrown in the Midwest League this year. Milestones!.. Steve Baron leads the team with eleven doubles. Coming into Sunday’s game, that was good enough to tie him for 6th in the Midwest League. I will remind you that the Midwest League is freaking huge… How the heck did Pimentel not score a run this week?

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Minor League Wrap (5/7-13/12)

It would feel weird to me if I was looking at this and didn’t put a lineup up even if I don’t expect much posting traffic. In short, Pettite was out of baseball for a while, and then he came back fairly recently. The Mariners are sending their left-hander lineup to hit against him and haven’t had good results through three. No one has had a hit! Shouldn’t they have a scouting report on this guy? Unbelievable! But Millwood didn’t allow anything until the bottom of the third either so…. something. I don’t know. I anticipate silly home runs later.

2B Ackley
LF Wells
RF Ichiro!
C Montero
1B Smoak
3B Liddi
DH Carp
CF Saunders
SS Ryan

Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms out there.

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Game 36, Mariners at Yankees

After his awful performance at the plate yesterday, you had to assume Brendan Ryan was going to be on the bench today. His bases loaded strikeout against Hiroki Kuroda was a disaster, not just because of the result but because of the pitches he decided to swing at. The final two swinging strikes were so far outside they probably would have hit a left-handed batter. Had he just gone up there with the bat on his shoulder, he very well might have drawn a walk. It was the kind of at-bat that gets you benched.

Of course, you could put together a pretty strong case that Ryan should have never been put in the #2 spot in the line-up to begin with, but I’d imagine those days are behind us, and we can probably just move on without complaining about another Eric Wedge decision that backfired. In fact, Wedge might just be running out his best line-up of the season today, as he’s gotten over his too-many-lefties-bunched-together phobia and promoted John Jaso to fill the #2 spot in the order. Given the current roster, this might be the exact line-up I’d run out there against a righty, minus swapping Ryan back in at short for Kawasaki. Let’s see more of this 1-8 line-up, please.

Ackley, 2B
Jaso, C
Ichiro, RF
Montero, DH
Seager, 3B
Carp, LF
Smoak, 1B
Saunders, CF
Kawasaki, SS

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Game 35, Mariners at Yankees

The M’s open a three game set in the Bronx, where Felix has has dominated in the recent past. Blake Beavan threw warm-ups, and appears healthy, but he’s still been pushed back a bit and Kevin Millwood will move up to get the start on Sunday.

Today’s line-up is probably one of the better ones you’ll see against a right-handed starter like Kuroda:
1: Ackley (2B)
2: Ryan (SS)
3: Ichiro (RF)
4: Montero (C)
5: Seager (3B
6: Jaso (DH)
7: Smoak (1B)
8: Carp (LF)
9: Saunders (CF)
SP: Felix!

Justin Smoak’s still in the line-up, and the M’s have said they don’t want him in AAA as he’s got nothing left to prove there (career AAA OPS: .794. Career AAA SLG%: .414). That’s their choice, but they absolutely need to see what he’s doing against lefties. He’s now got one extra-base hit against a lefty since the all-star break in 2011, a solitary double off of Jerry Blevins. I agree that his 2012 batting stats are small sample, but his problems predate 2012.

Just to reiterate Dave’s point about Stephen Pryor: since hitting AA, Pryor has pitched 41 2/3 IP, given up 17 hits, walked 13 and fanned 56. That’s not bad.

Andrew Carraway was promoted from AA Jackson to AAA Tacoma and he’s getting the start tonight at Cheney Stadium at 7. Definitely not as heralded as his old AA rotation-mates, but he’s a good pitcher and might bring some stability to what’s been a ghastly pitching staff for the Rainiers.

Go M’s!

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Game 34, Mariners at Yankees

Vargas is pitching well and likely has helped his stock a little bit with his strong early performances, but at the same time, the Mariners aren’t really in a position where they should be looking to punt one of their two quality starting pitchers. Besides Felix, Vargas is the only guy in the rotation that isn’t a significant risk for a disaster start, and the team doesn’t have anyone who could step in and take his place without making the team significantly worse. Holding onto Vargas for another month or two in order to give Hultzen and Paxton more time to get their command in order is probably in everyone’s best interests, and another 5-10 strong starts could continue to help contenders see Vargas as a legitimate quality starter for the stretch run.

However, with Brandon League, the situation is quite a bit different. While his 2.25 ERA and 8 saves have retained his shiny Proven Closer label, he isn’t throwing the ball all that well right now. His trademark two-seam fastball last year averaged 96.4 MPH, and he regularly topped out between 96-98 with it. This year, his sinker is averaging 95.1 MPH, and he’s rarely cracking 96. As Felix is currently demonstrating, velocity isn’t everything, but League doesn’t have Felix’s off-speed stuff. He needs his fastball to help him get ahead of hitters so he can put them away with a splitter in the dirt, and he relies on the power sinker in order to generate a lot of ground balls.

Right now, League’s fastball isn’t helping him do either of those things. His GB% stands at just 46.8%, well below last year’s 57.1% mark and even further from his career 60.7% ground ball rate. He’s not trading grounders for swinging strikes, either, as opposing batters are making contact 83.2 percent of the time they swing, well above his 77.6 percent career rate. He hasn’t posted a contact rate this high since 2008 – the year he spent half the season in Triple-A and only threw 33 innings in the big leagues.

It’s still early, and we’re only dealing with 231 pitches, so all of this could just be a short blip that requires a small adjustment and League could get right back on track. However, League hasn’t had the kind of high profile meltdown that can come with these kinds of struggles and quickly erase a pitcher’s reputation for being a shutdown ninth inning guy. Within the first month of the season, we’ve already seen Heath Bell, Carlos Marmol, and Javy Guerra demoted from the closer’s role, and a bunch of other teams are hunting for bullpen reinforcements because of the struggles of their own ninth inning guys. The line between being a Proven Closer and a heart-attack-waiting-to-happen is smaller than people are willing to admit. It wouldn’t take much for League to move from one category to the other, and with the way he’s throwing right now, it’s more likely than the Mariners should be comfortable with.

There’s a market for relief pitchers right now. Very few are for sale, and pretty much every contending club in baseball is shopping for bullpen help. The Padres just flipped Ernesto Frieri – an extreme flyball setup man who had made his living in the best pitcher’s park on the planet – for a couple of interesting pieces, and he’s not seen as an elite caliber reliever. If the Mariners made League available right now, they’d have significant leverage, and could probably garner a pretty solid return even without waiting until the July trading frenzy.

The other part of this coin is that, for the Mariners, League is easily expendable. Tom Wilhelmsen has been terrific in the 8th inning role, and he has both closer stuff and a legitimate future in this organization. Meanwhile, Steve Delbar has been a surprising revelation as a power setup man, running up a 20/3 K/BB ratio in 16 inning so far this season. Likewise, Shawn Kelley has looked strong since giving up the HR to Yoenis Cespedes in Japan, and his fastball is back in the 92-94 range, a good sign for his ability to handle the seventh or eighth inning if needed.

And, down on the farm, the Mariners have several power bullpen arms knocking on the door. Earlier in the week, they promoted Stephen Pryor from Jackson to Tacoma after he ran a 24/5 K/BB ratio in Double-A, and he’s whiffed five of the first 11 batters he’s faced in Triple-A since being challenged with better competition. Pryor’s fastball has been clocked in the 99-100 MPH range multiple times, and like Delebar and Wilhelmsen, his power fastball sets up hitters and he can put them away with a strong breaking ball. Pryor could easily step into the 6th-7th inning role while he gets his feet wet in the majors, and his stuff should allow him to transition to the big leagues with ease. Back in Jackson, 2011 third round pick Carter Capps is still blowing hitters away as well, and he could easily spend the second half of the year in Seattle.

Put simply, the Mariners don’t need Brandon League. Their bullpen will be just fine without him, and he’s a piece that they could extract a real return for, especially when other teams are shopping for bullpen help and few teams are selling. With League throwing in a way that suggests that he might not be able to keep getting easy saves against better opponents, it makes sense to move League sooner than later rather than risking a meltdown that could put his Proven Closer label at risk.

If I’m Jack Z, I’m making Brandon League available right now, and telling prospective bidders that I’m going to be aggressive in making a deal, so they should bring an offer that allows a deal to be completed in the next 3-5 days. The Mariners should strike while the iron is hot. The time to move League is now.

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The M’s Should Sell Brandon League Soon