Yes, I felt the need to talk about Ryan Rowland-Smith’s move to the DL – hell, everyone else is doing it. RRS’s WAR in 2010 stands at -1.4, far and away the worst in the majors. That WAR total is nearly equivalent to the 2nd, 3rd and 4th worst pitchers’ totals combined. He’s done this in less than 100 innings. As a fan of Ryan’s, I’ve got no choice but to be fascinated. Here was a guy who pitched reasonably well last year – perhaps not quite up to his ERA or FIP, but solid (and quite consistently) nonetheless. And in 2010, he’s been further below average than Cliff Lee’s been above average. How does this happen?

Dave’s post below lays out the ‘how’ but I still can’t figure out the ‘why.’ Yes, a pitcher who doesn’t throw hard isn’t going to last long when he can’t hit his spots. But it’s stunning the way these subtle declines in ’skill’ or results can snowball: RRS gave up no HRs on curveballs in 2009, and he’s given up 4 so far in 2010. When he’s watching his best pitch from 2007-09 get hammered, it’s probably more likely that he’d start nibbling with his FB, fall behind, and have to get more of the plate, leading to more pitches getting hammered, and off we go. His slider’s actually getting *more* swinging strikes in 2010, and it hasn’t been hit as hard, but a combination of BABIP and poor location mean that it hasn’t worked either.

His fastball results make me think that for 95+% of pitchers, ‘locating the fastball’ is some hybrid between a skill and a result. That is, while it’s not impacted by defenders, batters or official scorers, we can expect quite a bit of variance in a pitcher’s ability to hit spots. This variance will not always be punished as savagely as it has in Rowland-Smith’s case, but it’s something to keep in mind. Pat Andriola took a look at Zach Greinke’s fastball in 2009 and 2010 in this article at fangraphs a few weeks back. If Zach Greinke can’t maintain optimal location, what chance to RRS have? Location is clearly part skill, but it’s not all skill.* You’re going to have pitchers whose fielding-independent metrics diverge markedly from year to year even after you smooth out HR/FB, LOB%, etc. Greinke’s FIP and tRA are up over a full run this year.

Finally, there’s the issue of Ryan’s personality and his popularity with M’s fans. Clearly, M’s fans didn’t give Carlos Silva or Jeff Weaver this much slack when they struggled (and neither struggled quite this much). RRS has made an impact with fans in part because he’s so willing to engage them. He blogged a bit and has a huge following on twitter, where he’s been candid about his struggles and also lets fans know where he’ll be hanging out (I think divulging similar info would’ve gotten Silva into a hell of a lot of fights). As Jeff wrote at LL, this has made it easier for fans to relate to him, and it’s made him unique – though obviously his back-story helped set him apart as well. I spoke with him while he rehabbed in Tacoma last year and he’s just as down to earth as everyone says. So I don’t think I’m alone in saying that Rowland-Smith’s struggles feel crueler somehow than, say, Casey Kotchman’s or Rob Johnson’s. It also means that when I look back at my own preseason projections, RRS’s stands out. Sure it was wildly, astonishingly wrong, but I keep asking myself if part of the reason it was wrong was that I wanted Ryan to succeed. If I’m honest, I think that was part of it.

All of this is why I’m glad Rowland-Smith has landed on the DL with whatever it is that they’re calling it (back strain, huh? Eh, at least they didn’t go with ‘tendinitis’). I sincerely hope that the mechanical tweak Rick Adair is working on helps, and I sincerely hope that his luck suddenly goes from unbelievably bad to unbelievably good. I hope a pep-talk from his old minor league teammate Rich Dorman gets him to forget about his results and work on what he needs to do to become a major league pitcher again. Mostly, I hope that this season’s absurd stats don’t define his career. The Angels have made me put up with a lot, but if RRS’ Mariner career ends the same week Joe Saunders gets flipped for Dan Haren, I really don’t know what I’ll do.

*: Three tangents: first, I’m betting this is partially why veterans aren’t anywhere near as consistent as traditionalists think they are. Silva as consistent innings-eater? Barry Zito as guy-worth-truly-insane-contract? There are a number of reasons why pitchers begin to suck, but this is probably a big one, and it’s something that won’t necessarily get picked up in BB rates. A guy without a lot of stuff can get pegged as having brilliant location, when in reality he may only have been the beneficiary of great ‘location results.’ Second: qualities like ’stuff’ and velocity are important in that they provide a margin of error for variance in location. A 98 MPH fastball may not need to be well-located, but an 88 MPH fastball sure better be. Third, it’s always a good idea to think about sample size concerns. Location isn’t the only ’skill’ metric that can fluctuate wildly over small samples. When Carlos Peguero had a wOBA of over .500 for a month, his K% and BB% numbers looked better. This proved that the hot streak wasn’t purely the result of a spike in batting average on balls in play, but it didn’t prove it was anything more than a hot streak. Since April, he’s struggled to wOBA over .340, and his K rate is back above 30%.

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A Run at History

I posted this on twitter this afternoon, but here’s something depressing – the five lowest wOBAs in baseball over the last 30 days:

1. Justin Smoak, .171
2. Ivan Rodriguez, .175
3. Miguel Montero, .227
4. Ichiro Suzuki, .231
5. Franklin Gutierrez, .231

Jose Lopez is 11th at .260. Rob Johnson (.230) and Jack Wilson (.240) don’t have enough plate appearances to qualify, but have been equally atrocious. There’s no way these guys will continue hitting this poorly, but man, what a rough month.

Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Branyan, DH
Smoak, 1B
Bard, C
Josh Wilson, 3B
Saunders, LF
Jack Wilson, SS

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Game 102, Mariners at White Sox

This one just isn’t that complicated, though. There’s no great insight to be found here – it’s just as simple as the fact that he hasn’t had any command this year. His skillset can work, but it requires that he be able to pound the strike zone, get ahead of hitters, and then be able to mix in slow stuff to get them to chase pitches out of the zone. Guys with 88 MPH four-seam fastballs can’t be continually throwing fastballs when behind in the count, because hitters will just tee off on them. And that’s exactly what’s happening to Hyphen.

His first strike percentage is down from 61 percent a year ago to 58 percent this year. By falling behind in the count, he’s getting himself into situations where hitters don’t have to look for the change-up or the breaking ball. His fastball isn’t good enough to get by MLB hitters when they know its coming.

The flyball, no strikeout lefty skillset can work, but you need pinpoint command to be able to pull it together. This year, Ryan Rowland-Smith has had far less than pinpoint command, and he’s suffering the consequences. In reality, last year’s strike-throwing ways were probably an anomaly – he’d never shown that kind of command in the minors, and it now looks like an outlier rather than improvement. The M’s are probably best served by just putting him back in the bullpen, hoping he can get a few extra MPH on his fastball in shorter stints, and let him settle in as a lefty reliever.

Unless his ability to hit his spots improves dramatically, he won’t succeed in a major league rotation.

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The Problem With RRS

In a rush, so not much to say about this one, other than bet on Chicago – this is the wrong environment for RRS to try and fix his HR problem.

Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Branyan, DH
Lopez, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Saunders, CF
Josh Wilson, SS
Bard, C
Langerhans, LF

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Game 101, Mariners at White Sox

Most of the conversations about the Dan Haren trade boil down to how a person feels about pitcher evaluation. There are clearly still a lot of people that simply believe that whatever happens is the pitcher’s responsibility, so if he gives up a bunch of hits and some home runs, he’s doing something wrong and that should be held against him. High BABIP or HR/FB rates are evidence of throwing too many hittable pitches, or that his stuff has deteriorated, or that his command isn’t as good as it was, or some other explanation that we haven’t yet figured out. But, whatever it is, it’s definitely something, and it’s definitely real.

These opinions are generally held because of the outright refusal to accept randomness. The idea that something could happen repeatedly, without cause, is very hard to for a lot of people to swallow. But it’s true, and it’s a very important concept to buy into when trying to project the future performance of baseball players. Random happens.

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Accepting Randomness

Happy Felix Day.

As has been pointed out in several different places recently, Felix is having essentially the same season he had last year. His numbers are almost identical across the board in every meaningful category. His walks are the same, strikeouts the same, home runs the same, runner stranding the same. Everything is about as identical as you could possibly get as a follow-up to last year’s performance, with one exception – last year, Felix won 19 games, and this year, he’s won 7.

The difference, of course, is the performance of his teammates. He hasn’t gotten support from his offense or his bullpen, so his wins are down. And this is why almost everyone is rejecting wins as any kind of useful statistic at this point. Well, everyone except the Arizona Diamondbacks, because if you haven’t heard, they shipped their ace Dan Haren to the Angels for Joe Saunders and some not-close-to-the-majors prospects. Dan Haren is really good, and Joe Saunders is pretty lousy, but over the last three years, Saunders has more wins (43 to 41).

The Angels took advantage of an Arizona franchise that’s a walking disaster right now, and by adding Haren for the next three years, they just made the AL West that much harder to win. With Weaver, Pineiro, Santana, and now Haren, the Angels actually have a good pitching rotation again, and all four of those guys will be back next year. Blech.

Yet another reason to build for 2012. The M’s are now staring at an even bigger mountain to climb for contention next year. Screw you, Jerry DiPoto.

Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 3B
Kotchman, 1B
Bradley, DH
Saunders, LF
Johnson, C
Jack Wilson, SS

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Game 100, Mariners at White Sox

To the jump!

Odds and Ends:
I don’t have any big item for this week, but here are a few tidbits from the week.

One is that the MLB has instituted blood testing throughout the minor leagues, which is the first step in ridding themselves of the nasty HGH problem. As the minor leagues aren’t covered in collective bargaining, Selig was allowed to do this immediately, hoping that the system will work its way up to the big leagues in time. The first major round of steroid testing related in a lot of embarrassing revelations for many teams, and this new system may yield some of the same in the short-term.

Another bit of news was that the Rangers bowed out of the international market this year, opting to shift all of their funds to the playoff run. Since they were one of the main suitors of Dominican SS Esteilon Peguero, I asked BA’s Ben Badler if this meant the M’s had a shot now, but he said he didn’t really know anymore who was getting him or when. On the plus side, he seems to rather like C/1B Ji-man Choi.

The Mariners signed three more draft picks, those being 8th rounder OF Jabari Blash, 22nd-round pick RHP Steve Landazuri, and 45-th round pick RHP Steve Kohlscheen. I don’t have news on the remainder of the top ten or any of the interesting late round picks other than it’s probably going to come down to near the deadline if they sign. I expect Littlewood, Stanek, and Paxton to eventually join the fold, but that’s about all I have.

There’s also Moniker Madness which is ongoing and has farmhands like Jetsy Extrano, Forrest Snow, Blake Nation, and Hawkins Gebbers present, along with former farmhands like Austin Bibens-Dirkx and Callix Crabbe.

Tacoma Rainiers (4-3 this week, 57-44 overall)

The Week in Review:

Monday, July 19th 2010
Tacoma 9, Las Vegas 10 (TOR – 4)
W: Carlson (3-1, 4.10) L: Speigner (3-6, 4.83)

Tuesday, July 20th 2010
Tacoma 6, Las Vegas 9 (TOR – 3)
W: Mills (7-4, 4.13) L: Snell (3-2, 5.13)

Wednesday, July 21st 2010
Tacoma 10, Las Vegas 5 (TOR – 4)
W: Feierabend (3-3, 5.25) L: Ray (3-5, 4.95)

Thursday, July 22nd 2010
Tacoma 8, Las Vegas 4 (TOR – 5)
W: French (11-3, 2.94) L: Perez (3-2, 5.92)

Friday, July 23rd 2010
Sacramento 2 (OAK + 14), Tacoma 1
W: Mortensen (11-3, 3.50) L: Pineda (3-1, 3.71)

Saturday, July 24th 2010
Sacramento 4 (OAK + 13), Tacoma 6
W: Baldwin (7-4, 5.00) L: Middleton (6-6, 3.30)

Sunday, July 25th 2010
Sacramento 2 (OAK + 12), Tacoma 3
W: Patterson (2-0, 2.16) L: Banwart (2-2, 6.44)

Hitter of the Week:
RF David Winfree, R/R, 8/5/1985
6 G, 22 AB, 7 R, 11 H, 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 1/2 K/BB, .500/.542/.818

People have been asking me about Winfree since he joined the team, and his performances have given them good reason to. Winfree has hit for average and posted extra-base hits at a respectable 36% clip, part of a boost of nearly .200 OPS points from his time in the Twins org earlier in the year, where he had moved up slowly after being drafted in the 13th-round of ‘03. Winfree hasn’t missed hitting double-digit home runs in any of his seasons going back to ‘05, his first year in a full-season league. At the same time, he’s cracked thirty walks only once in his career, that being in his second tour of the Eastern League, and has only three walks since joining the Rainiers. He might be a late bloomer putting things together. I’m not exactly betting on it.

Not Really Going Away Mention:
LF Mike Wilson, R/R, 6/29/1983
6 G, 19 AB, 3 R, 7 H, HR, 4 RBI, 3 SB, 5/1 K/BB, .368/.400/.526

Nor Is He (YET) Mention:
1B Mike Carp, L/R, 6/30/1986
6 G, 23 AB, 2 R, 8 H, 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 5/2 K/BB, .347/.400/.522

Pitcher of the Week:
RPH Michael Pineda, 1/18/1989
0-1, GS, 1.80 ERA in 5.0 IP, H, R, 11/0 K/BB, 1/3 G/F, HB

Easy, right? With eleven Ks Friday evening, eleven Ks in a row that is, the only fault you might be able to find is the run scored, and even that is a stretch with the run scoring on a hit batter and then a triple with one out. The triple, of course, was stranded. It’s hard to score when you can’t even make contact. So Pineda struck out everyone in the lineup once and then some, and is now sitting at 11.1 K/9 for his Tacoma tenure which, naturally, his a high mark for his career. But if the various numbers or the streak itself doesn’t impress you, well then you’re rather hard to please, so note that he was around 97 mph all evening, may have hit triple digits, and was recording Ks on his slider and, more rarely, his change. Pineda is good.

For Lack of Better Options Mention:
LHP Ryan Feierabend, 8/22/1985
1-0, GS, 4.26 ERA in 6.1 IP, 6 H (HR), 4 R (3 ER), 3/1 K/BB, 7/5 G/F, WP

From The Training Room:
IF Jack Hannahan got traded to the Red Sox, so there was that. A day or so later UT Jeff Dominguez came off the DL.

Strange Happenings:
Snell and Baldwin both had good starts their second time up this week and really horrible ones the first time around… Ackley got intentionally walked on Saturday. Ackley!

West Tenn Diamond Jaxx (5-1 this week, 51-47 overall)

The Week in Review:
Monday, July 19th 2010
West Tenn 12, Huntsville 5 (MIL + 1)
W: Hensley (7-7, 3.26) L: Butler (3-5, 4.56)

Tuesday, July 20th 2010
West Tenn 10, Huntsville 0 (MIL 0)
W: Grube (2-3, 2.06) L: Luetge (1-1, 4.74)

Wednesday, July 21st 2010
Off day

Thursday, July 22nd 2010
Birmingham 1 (CHW – 9), West Tenn 4
W: Beavan (11-6, 2.98) L: Edwards (3-7, 5.85)

Friday, July 23rd 2010
Birmingham 3 (CHW – 10), West Tenn 4
W: Hill (1-1, 6.43) L: Infante (0-1, 6.75)

Saturday, July 24th 2010
Birmingham 3 (CHW – 11), West Tenn 4
W: Rohrbaugh (3-2, 3.36) L: Long (4-6, 5.30)

Sunday, July 25th 2010
Birmingham 4 (CHW – 10), West Tenn 1
W: Leesman (1-1, 4.11) L: Hensley (7-8, 3.39)

Hitter of the Week:
3B/1B Alex Liddi, R/R, 8/14/1988
6 G, 25 AB, 7 R, 9 H, 3B, 5 HR, 12 RBI, 7/1 K/BB, .360/.385/1.040

Like it was going to be anyone else. From last Sunday through Saturday, Liddi doubled his home run output for the season, hitting as many home runs in a week as he had some months last season. It’s something to get excited about, but I can also be depressing and poke holes in it as I’m wont to do. Huntsville is tied for the most home runs given up in the league, and Birmingham is third. Additionally, we didn’t really see him “stalking pitches” in an OBP-sense, and he still struck out a bit too often. The good times might keep rolling while the Jaxx face their hated intrastate rival next week anyway, as the Smokies have given up their share of dingers and have a good hitting park. Hey, at least he has a .751 OPS against right-handers now.

Old Partner on the Mavs Returns to Action Mention:
LF Joe Dunigan, L/L, 3/29/1986
5 G, 16 AB, 4 R, 6 H, 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 SB, 5/3 K/BB, .375/.474/.813

.400 Week Gets Overshadowed By Flying Objects Mention:
1B/RF Johan Limonta, L/L, 8/4/1983
6 G, 26 AB, 6 R, 11 H, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 4/1 K/BB, .423/.444/.577

Pitcher of the Week:
RHP Jarrett Grube, 11/5/1981
1-0, 0.00 ERA in 8.0 IP, 5 H, R, 8/0 K/BB, 7/7 G/F, HB, WP

I told you, didn’t I? Tuesday’s outing was easily the best of his tenure with the D-Jaxx thus far, hitting a high for innings pitched and strikeouts with a low for walks and runs scored. There was a run that nearly scored on him, with an overambitious runner getting thrown out at home by Haveman, but prior to that, he had twelve in a row retired from the second to the sixth. With the Ks, it looks a wee bit more sustainable than Bray’s approach of putting everything in play and let the defense sort it out. Grube isn’t a prospect, but he could be a big part of the D-Jaxx’ success in the second half, and as you can tell, they’re starting to turn it around.

Better the Second Time Around Mention:
RHP Blake Beavan, 1/17/1989
1-0, GS, 1.29 ERA in 7.0 IP, 5 H (HR), R, 3/0 K/BB, 10/6 G/F

Two Walks in Last 20.0 Innings Mention:
LHP Mauricio Robles, 3/5/1989
0-0, GS, 1.69 ERA in 5.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R (ER), 5/1 K/BB, 5/5 G/F

Closer Mention:
RHP Josh Lueke, 12/5/1984
0-0, 0.00 ERA in 3.0 IP, H, 6/0 K/BB, 2/1 G/F

From the Training Room:
As it turned out, Robles wasn’t really hurt and ended up making his start just fine and throwing almost a hundred pitches… From a personnel standpoint, there was also the move of Cortes to the ‘pen. He’s had five strikeouts and no walks since moving, while allowing two hits in 2.2 innings. Bray is back in the rotation.

Strange Happenings:
Sunday’s lineup featured Joe Dunigan in the leadoff spot. But then, I seem to remember the same from Peguero at one point, so whatever.

High Desert Mavericks (4-3 this week, 53-48 overall)

The Week in Review:
Monday, July 19th 2010
Inland Empire 17 (LA – 3), High Desert 11
W: Eovaldi (3-5, 4.45) L: Hann (1-5, 7.05)

Tuesday, July 20th 2010
High Desert 3, Modesto 5 (COL + 2)
W: DeRatt (1-0, 3.60) L: Littleton (0-1, 3.46)

Wednesday, July 21st 2010
High Desert 7, Modesto 4 (COL + 1)
W: Carraway (7-5, 5.42) L: Nicasio (8-7, 3.85)

Thursday, July 22nd 2010
High Desert 5, Modesto 1 (COL 0)
W: Vasquez (7-4, 2.96) L: Houston (5-6, 5.68)

Friday, July 23rd 2010
High Desert 5, San Jose 3 (SF – 7)
W: Cleto (3-4, 5.43) L: Nestor (2-2, 4.54)

Saturday, July 24th 2010
High Desert 2, San Jose 3 (SF – 6)
W: Fitzgerald (8-2, 3.42) L: Hesketh (0-3, 2.91)

Sunday, July 25th 2010
High Desert 8, San Jose 3 (SF – 7)
W: Kasparek (7-2, 3.13) L: Odle (10-5, 5.13)

Hitter of the Week:
1B Rich Poythress, R/R, 8/11/1987
7 G, 26 AB, 6 R, 12 H, 2 2B, 5 HR, 14 RBI, SB, CS, 5/2 K/BB, .461/.452/1.115

How was Liddi not the only one to hit five home runs this week? Not that I don’t welcome it from Poythress as well, I just think that it was perhaps lost in the general freakishness of the offense for the Mavs this week. Two of his dingers came at home, which you know my stance on, one was at Modesto, which might be the worst park in the league to hit it out of, and the last two were in San Jose which is a little favorable to right-handers. I suppose I’ll take it given the alternative of him not hitting home runs. He’s now three behind Chavez for second in the league and six behind the league lead. I don’t know that he could catch either, but it could be fun to watch. Oh, and the OBP isn’t a typo: he had three sac flies this week.

Making the Most of his Time Mention:
LF Jake Shaffer, L/L, 8/16/1987
5 G, 21 AB, 3 R, 8 H, 3 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 4/0 K/BB, .381/.381/.904

Still At It Mention:
IF Kyle Seager, L/R, 11/3/1987
6 G, 26 AB, 7 R, 11 H, HR, 3 RBI, CS, 3/2 K/BB, .423/.464/.538

More Complete Offense Mention:
RF Johermyn Chavez, R/R, 1/26/1989
7 G, 27 AB, 7 R, 11 H, 2 HR, 6/5 K/BB, .407/.500/.630

.900+ OPS Week Gets Buried Mention:
3B Eddy-Martinez-Esteve, R/R, 7/14/1983
7 G, 29 AB, 2 R, 10 H, 5 2B, 7 RBI, 4/3 K/BB, .345/.406/.517

Pitcher of the Week:
LHP Anthony Vasquez, 9/19/1986
1-0, GS, 1.42 ERA in 6.1 IP, 5 H, R, 6/1 K/BB, 7/2 G/F

Hey, he’s back! And he brought his strikeouts with him! This is no doubt a good thing. Back in June he only struck out a little over five per nine innings, which was a little surprising considering he came in strong to start June. This performance helps him add half a K for this month, the downside being that he’s also gone from not even a walk per nine innings to about two, along with a noticeable uptick in home runs. So, yes, July has been a bit rough, but so have the winds in Mavericks Stadium and the whole of the pitching staff has suffered. Perhaps August will be better? One can hope.

Balls in Play Mention:
RHP Kenn Kasparek, 8/23/1985
1-0, 2 GS, 2.77 ERA in 13.0 IP, 11 H (HR), 4 R, 5/1 K/BB, 14/16 G/F, 2 HB

From the Training Room:
Monday brought about a change of pitchers, RHP Kenn Kasparek coming off the DL after a month on it in exchange for RHP Chris Kirkland going on. This pushed Wild to the bullpen… After what might have been his worst outing as a pro on Monday night, RHP Marwin Vega retired. Vega was a pitcher of fascinating abilities who utterly failed to develop in any appreciable way. I have mixed feelings about it because when I saw him initially I thought he had the potential to be good if not great, but the past few seasons have been nothing but frustration after frustration culminating in a demotion to the Cal League this year, where he bombed. Anyway, DH Dennis Raben came off the DL when the spot opened and that’s good.

Strange Happenings:
The Mavericks faced San Jose over the weekend. San Jose’s closer has a 5.65 ERA and seventeen saves… Cleto pitched eight innings and struck out six without walking one in his most recent start, so I guess he’s okay.

Clinton Lumberkings (1-5 this week, 51-46 overall)

The Week in Review:
Monday, July 19th 2010
South Bend 4 (ARI – 6), Clinton 1
W: Worthington (3-1, 1.17) L: Ramirez (6-4, 2.90)

Tuesday, July 20th 2010
Off day

Wednesday, July 21st 2010
Clinton 1, Great Lakes 3 (LA + 15)
W: Webster (9-6, 2.78) L: Gallagher (0-4, 3.63)

Thursday, July 22nd 2010
Rain out

Friday, July 23rd 2010
Clinton 3, Great Lakes 6 (LA + 16) (seven innings)
W: Magill (5-2, 3.46) L: Stanton (7-5, 4.21)

Clinton 2, Great Lakes 3 (+ 17) (seven innings)
W: Suiter (4-2, 3.74) L: Gillheeney (8-7, 2.85)

Saturday, July 24th 2010
Clinton 7, Lansing 12 (TOR + 4)
W: Shopshire (7-8, 5.10) L: Czyz (2-2, 4.34)

Sunday, July 25th 2010
Clinton 3, Lansing 0 (TOR + 3)
W: Ramirez (7-4, 2.67) L: Fields (2-6, 3.90)

Hitter of the Week:
3B Mario Martinez, R/R, 11/13/1989
6 G, 21 AB, 3 R, 7 H, 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 5/1 K/BB, .333/.391/.524

Consistent is not a word that I’d use to describe the Clinton offense this week, nor would I use it to characterize Martinez’ season. After having only 14% of his hits go for extras in April, he’s been up to 31% in May, and 55% in his brief June before coming back down to 33% for July. Similarly, after walking nine times in May, Martinez now looks like he’ll be lucky to walk nine times the rest of the season, after two in June and one thus far in July, that coming this week. He also struck out in a third of his at-bats. The injury might be nagging still, and if so, it’s a shame that it came right as he was starting to get on track.

Peripherals #1 Mention:
RF James Jones, L/L, 9/24/1988
6 G, 19 AB, 2 R, 4 H, 2B, HR, RBI, 2 SB, CS, 5/3 K/BB, 2 HBP, .211/.375/.421

Peripherals #2 Mention:
1B Vinnie Catricala, R/R, 10/31/1988
6 G, 16 AB, 4 H, 2 2B, SB, CS, 2/5 K/BB, .250/.429/.375

Peripherals #3 Mention:
SS Nick Franklin, S/R, 3/2/1991
6 G, 21 AB, 2 R, 5 H, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 6/2 K/BB, .238/.304/.476

Pitcher of the Week:
RHP Erasmo Ramirez, 5/2/1990
0-1, 2 GS, 2.45 ERA in 14.2 IP, 12 H (HR), 4 R, 12/2 K/BB, 14/14 G/F, HB

Ramriez’ numbers look a little better combined than they would have individually. On Monday, he struck out nine, a season-high and one shy of a career-high set last year, but he also let four runs score on seven hits and a walk. Then, on Sunday, he went eight shutout frames, allowing just five hits and a walk, but only struck out three. It’s the little inconsistencies like these that remind you that he’s still a young pitcher, and July has presented trouble like every other month. In May, he wasn’t striking out enough batters, in June, he allowed too many hits (a number of which left the park), and in July he’s running a 22/7 K/BB. Seven walks are three more than he’d had the whole year prior to this point. Still, he’s pretty good, I just worry about what to do with him next year.

Strikeouts are Back Mention:
RHP Nolan Gallagher, 12/20/1985
0-1, GS, 3.86 ERA in 7.0 IP, 5 H (HR), 3 R, 8/1 K/BB, 7/5 G/F

From the Training Room:
Nothing new that I see. Blandford has been on the DL for about two months now.

Strange Happenings:
With usual skipped Sal Fasano taking a vacation, the match-up between the Lumberkings and the Lansing Lugnuts feature a managerial duel between John Tamargo and John Tamargo, Jr…. Taylor Stanton gave up three home runs in four innings in his last outing, something I don’t think I’ve seen since… Kevin Jarvis?… Blake Ochoa drove in all seven of the Lumberkings’ runs on Saturday with a grand slam, a two-run shot, and a sacrifice fly.

Everett Aquasox (5-2 this week, 26-11 overall)

Monday, July 19th 2010
Eugene 3 (SD – 5), Everett 4 (ten innings)
W: Hudson (3-1, 3.18) L: Irsfeld (0-2, 5.06)

Tuesday, July 20th 2010
Eugene 2 (SD – 6), Everett 6
W: Medina (2-2, 3.53) L: Branham (1-3, 4.09)

Wednesday, July 21st 2010
Everett 6, Salem-Keizer 11 (SF – 1)
W: Flick (1-0, 5.03) L: Fernandez (3-2, 3.55)

Thursday, July 22nd 2010
Everett 5, Salem-Keizer 4 (SF – 2) (fourteen innings)
W: Diaz (2-1, 10.13) L: Romo (1-1, 2.79)

Friday, July 23rd 2010
Everett 4, Salem-Keizer 6 (SF – 1)
W: Couture (3-2, 3.49) L: Sorce (3-1, 4.42)

Saturday, July 24th 2010
Salem-Keizer 0 (SF – 2), Everett 2
W: Kesler (3-2, 2.29) L: Graham (0-3, 7.64)

Sunday, July 25th 2010
Salem-Keizer 5 (SF – 3), Everett 7
W: Medina (3-2, 4.20) L: Rodriguez (1-1, 4.91)

Hitter of the Week:
OF/DH Kevin Rivers, L/R, 8/24/1988
7 G, 26 AB, 10 R, 12 H, 2 2B, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 6/8 K/BB, .462/.571/.885

Apparently, Rivers was none too pleased with Royster taking the top spot and opted to take it back, and make sure that there were no questions or doubts about it. So, how good is Rivers? He’s leading the league in all the slash categories, including a sixty-one point lead in OBP and a fifty-six point lead in slugging, so that he’s also leading in walks and home runs, along with runs and RBI shouldn’t surprise you. At this point, I don’t think he has much to prove in the Northwest League and could stand to see the Midwest for the final month. The Aquasox have a .700+ winning percentage, so I think they’ll manage.

Great Average, Little Else Mention:
IF Terry Serrano, S/R, 2/6/1987
6 G, 21 AB, 7 R, 9 H, 2B, RBI, 2 CS, 6/2 K/BB, .429/.458/.476

Pitcher of the Week:
LHP Edlando Seco, 7/23/1988
0-0, 2 GS, 0.90 ERA in 10.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R (ER), 15/5 K/BB, 5/7 G/F, WP

I was reading something the other day that was talking about how Seco wore “34″ in honor of Felix and pitched like Felix on Saturday, giving up just one hit in five innings and striking out six. Since he also walked three, I’ll say that the “34″ is probably more like Freddy in this case, and in one of his frustrating outings. The good news? The 9/2 K/BB on Monday wasn’t bad at all. His walk rate has gone down from June and is now merely awful and not horrifying, and it remains true that he does not allow hits, as his average against is lower than any one Mariners average this season. In fact, 43.8% of his plate appearances result in either a walk or a K, whereas there’s only a 10.9% chance of a hit. Isn’t that something?

Sparkplug Mention:
RHP Willy Kesler, 8/11/1987
1-0, 2 G, SV, 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP, 3 H, 8/2 K/BB, 2 WP

From the Training Room:
Nothing new. Burgoon hasn’t pitched in nearly a month. Wiswall has been out since Monday but no move has been made.

Strange Happenings:
Yoervis Medina is third in the league in Ks with forty-eight. He’s also first in runs allowed with thirty, five ahead of the next guy. But hey, at least he’s #10 in walks and not higher than that.

Pulaski Mariners (4-3 this week, 18-15 overall):

Monday, July 19th 2010
Danville 7 (ATL + 1), Pulaski 8 (twelve innings)
W: Leigh (1-0, 0.87) L: Acord (0-1, 3.48)

Tuesday, July 20th 2010
Pulaski 8, Danville 1 (ATL 0)
W: Mieses (2-2, 3.11) L: Lewis (0-2, 12.19)

Wednesday, July 21st 2010
Pulaski 1, Danville 8 (ATL + 1)
W: Northcraft (4-0, 3.07) L: Olivero (0-4, 6.82)

Thursday, July 22nd 2010
Pulaski 1, Danville 4 (ATL + 2)
W: Weber (3-1, 2.86) L: Boyce (5-2, 4.29)

Friday, July 23rd 2010
Pulaski 7, Bristol 4 (CHW – 7)
W: Vancil (1-0, 6.23) L: Moran (0-1, 2.45)
Saturday, July 24th 2010
Pulaski 2, Bristol 6 (CHW – 6)
W: Hollis (2-0, 3.68) L: Kiel (1-1, 5.40)

Sunday, July 25th 2010
Pulaski 5, Bristol 1 (CHW – 7)
W: Mieses (3-2, 2.82) L: Arroyo (4-2, 2.61)

Hitter of the Week:
3B Ramon Morla, R/R, 11/20/1989
6 G, 27 AB, 5 R, 8 H, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 3 SB, CS, 6/2 K/BB, .296/.345/.444

He’s back, and still having about half his hits go for extras, and still leading the league in dingers (somehow, he only places sixth in slugging?). I’m kind of surprised that he hasn’t been mentioned anywhere really as one of the league’s better bats, though I acknowledge that since he turns twenty-one in the offseason, he’s only about league average as age goes. In trying to investigate why, I found an interesting split: .393/.433/.738. That’s Morla at home. He’s only .233/.278/.507 on the road. I don’t have park factors for the Appalachian League, but I’m not seeing a whole lot of hitters that only do well at home either for the M’s, and quite a few are better on the road. It’s a bit of a mystery.

Missed the Last Two Games Mention:
OF James Wood, L/L, 12/19/1987
5 G, 19 AB, 3 R, 6 H, 2B, 2 RBI, 5 SB, 7/3 K/BB, HBP, .316/.435/.368

Not Quite Enough Time Mention:
C Larry Gonzalez, R/R, 2/1/1988
5 G, 16 AB, 3 R, 6 H, 2 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 3/0 K/BB, .375/.375/.689

Pitcher of the Week:
RHP George Mieses, 5/3/1991
2-0, 2 GS, 1.20 ERA in 15.0 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 9/2 K/BB, 18/15 G/F, 3 HB, WP

I think it’s gotten to the point where Mieses has emerged as the top guy from here out and there were only be irregular instances of someone else taking him down. The second and third wins were certainly easier to come by than the first two. Relative to his last season, which was in the DSL so all possible caveats apply, Mieses is walking fewer men, down from 2.8 men per nine to just over one, but he’s also dropped off from over ten Ks to just over six, which is right around the threshold a successful pitcher can be at. Of course, he’s also a late bloomer, with only one pro season under his belt before this one, and is a nineteen-year-old in a league where the average hitter is just under twenty-one. For now, he’s intriguing with potential for more as he gets acclimated.

Wild Thing Mention:
RHP Jesse Nava, 9/18/1987
0-0, 2 GS, 3.00 ERA in 12.0 IP, 12 H, 5 R, 4 R, 11/4 K/BB, 9/5 G/F, 5 WP, HB

Closing (This Year) Mention:
RHP Matthew Bischoff, 5/21/1987
0-0, 2 G, SV, 0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP, 3 H, 8/1 K/BB, 1/4 G/F, BK

From the Training Room:
CIF Matt Browning joined the team on Sunday evening of last week and was later joined by RHP Stephen Kohlscheen on Tuesday, a fellow ’10 draft pick, and OF Jabari Blash this Sunday.

Strange Happenings:
The success of Gonzalez this week allows me to link another Meet the Mariner feature, this one on him. Pithy.

Dispatches from the Land of Rehabbers and Teens:
RHP Danny Cruz Ayala: 8 G, 3 S, 4.05 ERA in 13.1 IP, 13 H (HR), 6 R, 23/3 K/BB
2B Michael Acevedo: 13 G, 53 AB, 7 R, 20 H, 4 2B, 3B, 5 RBI, 3 SB, 2 CS, 12/2 K/BB, .377/.411/.491
C/1B Ji-Man Choi: 23 G, 77 AB, 14 R, 33 H, 7 2B, 3B, 15 RBI, 6 SB, CS, 16/13 K/BB, .429/.511/.545
RHP Jeroen de Haas: 9 G (GS), 3.60 ERA in 20.0 IP, 24 H (HR), 13 R (8 ER), 17/4 K/BB, HB
1B Jose Flores: 20 G, 77 AB, 11 R, 19 H, 8 2B, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 2 CS, 23/9 K/BB, .247/.318/.429
RHP Seon Gi Kim: 7 G (5 GS), 6.89 ERA in 31.1 IP, 40 H (HR), 26 R (24 ER), 40/9 K/BB
CF Alfredo Morales: 24 G, 96 AB, 11 R, 22 H, 7 2B, 2 3B, 7 RBI, 2 SB, CS, 36/7 /BB, .229/.282/.344
OF Guillermo Pimentel: 25 G, 91 AB, 10 R, 21 H, 3 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 14 RBI, SB, 27/2 K/BB, .231/.253/.385
RHP Luke Taylor: 4 G, 7.94 ERA in 5.2 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 5/5 K/BB
RHP Dylan Unsworth: 5 G (4 GS), 2.63 ERA in 24.0 IP, 27 H, 10 R (7 ER), 18/0 K/BB, HB
RHP Taijuan Walker: 2 G, 0.00 ERA in 4.0 IP, H, 2 R (0 ER), 6/2 K/BB, HB

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Minor League Wrap (7/19-25/10)

The baseball media (and yes, I include blogs like this one in that genre) does a good job of offering insight into certain areas of the game. We also are basically useless when it comes to amateur psychology. Regardless of the level of access or the ferociousness of opinion, very little of what is speculated about offers any real knowledge about what may happen. Really, let’s just look at the facts of this situation.

Chone Figgins, lauded clubhouse leader and great team chemistry guy, got into a public fight with Don Wakamatsu, calm and rational manager known for how much his players like him. Or maybe liked him. They seemed to last year, though not so much this one. Clubhouse relations have appeared to deteriorate after Ken Griffey Jr, lauded clubhouse leader and great team chemistry guy, sulked about playing time and retired mid-season after being relegated to the bench role he’s deserved for half a decade. Meanwhile, Milton Bradley, notable hothead and clubhouse cancer, has been a boy scout for the last few months, even as the season went down the drain and his personal performance went in the toilet.

The labels that these guys were affixed with run counter to how they’ve acted in almost every single case. The guys whose value in the clubhouse was so highly talked about have been the ones causing problems, and now, we’re being told that a clubhouse full of veteran team leaders lacks leadership.

Blogger, reporter, radio host, in the end, we’re all pretty much equally awful at predicting anything that has to do with how baseball players will interact with each other in the future. The usual approach is to take a guy’s reputation from where he’s been and assume it will dictate his actions no matter where he goes or how time changes, but that assumption falls on its face all the time. This team was supposed to have great chemistry, in large part due to guys like Figgins and Griffey. From most accounts, that just hasn’t materialized.

Rather than trying to expand on this point, I’ll just let Jim Leyland take it away, from when he was asked about the Washington Nationals last month:

“It’s not what Pudge brings into the clubhouse,” Leyland said. “It’s what Pudge brings on to the field. He’s hitting .336! That’s the kind of production you want. [Shucks], I can find a nice bunch of guys you want in the clubhouse. I can find that. He’s producing. That’s what’s good. That’s how I look at.”

“They didn’t bring Strasburg up because he’s a nice guy,” Leyland said. “They brought him up because he’s a big talent. He has a chance to be an unbelievable pitcher and he’s won two games already.

“Take all that clubhouse [stuff] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [nonsense] for years. Chemistry don’t mean [anything]. He’s up here because he’s good. That don’t mean [a hill of beans]. They got good chemistry because their team is improved, they got a real good team, they got guys knocking in runs, they got a catcher hitting .336, they got a phenom pitcher they just brought up. That’s why they’re happy.”

Jim Leyland isn’t interested in playing amateur psychologist. He’s just going to assume that winning teams are happy teams. I am too.

When the M’s start winning regularly again, I’m sure Chone Figgins and Don Wakamatsu will get along just fine. You can speculate about what it means if you want, but in the end, none of us really have any idea.

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The Fight

Man, that was an exciting game last night. Did you see that _______ (play) by ________ (player)? That was terrific. Of course, we all could have done without _______ (baserunning mistake/error/double play) by _______ (Lopez). That kind of sucked, right? Oh well, hopefully __________ (young player in the line-up) does well today.

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Game 99, Red Sox at Mariners

I think I took Amy whitewater rafting today. I think we had fun. I think the Mariners lost last night. I hope I’m only wrong about the last of those things.

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Game 98, Red Sox at Mariners