If last night’s match-up focused on a trade/acquisition that works out exactly as you’d hope, tonight’s features the opposite. Joe Blanton looks very much like the pitcher he was in Philadelphia – he’s an average GB%, solid K%, low walk pitcher who gets the most out of a 90mph fastball and an assortment of bendy pitches. He’s a junkballer, but he’s carved out a niche for himself by being a dependable middle- to back-of-the-rotation starter. The Angels, sensibly, thought that by taking a guy out of a HR-aiding park like Philly’s and inserting him in HR-neutralizing Anaheim, they’d get the great K:BB ratio without paying a penalty in gopher-balls.

Well, that deal’s worked fine, but the Angels aren’t collecting lots of kudos for signing Blanton to a 2-year, $15m deal. Part of the reason is that Anaheim can’t protect Blanton in away games. He’s given up 11 homers in 7 road games, and batters are slugging .592 off him away from So Cal. But that doesn’t mean he’s been brilliant at home. Blanton’s game works when his BABIP is under .300. This year, it’s .368. Sure, some of that is clearly luck, but his LD% and the homers suggest that batters are getting a good look at his pitches. His FIP isn’t terrible despite all of the HRs thanks to the K:BB ratio, but his ERA is pushing 6. It’d actually be worse if he wasn’t pitching relatively well with RISP; he’s getting torched with the bases empty. In any event, this is not the rotation-stabilizer they thought they were getting when they picked up Blanton (and traded Ervin Santana away).

Bonderman’s been better recently as his sinker has a bit more sink, allowing him to post great GB numbers against righties. He’s throwing a ton of sliders, which has been effective (in a tiny sample, SSS warning here) in generating weak contact. But just as we saw with Brandon Maurer, he doesn’t have a good pitch to go to against lefties. As a result, they’re destroying him. But also like Maurer, he may find some success against the Angels’ righty-heavy line-up.

1: Chavez, RF
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Saunders, CF
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Bonderman

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Game 71, Mariners at Angels

The only question now is what that move means for the line-up. In Smoak’s absence, Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales have been sharing the 1B/DH jobs, which is where they both belong. Morse hasn’t played the outfield since May 28th, as his leg issues have kept him from being able to run, and Morales’ back started giving him problems after he played first base 14 times in 16 games, and he hasn’t touched the field since.

If the Mariners want to stick Smoak back into the line-up, they basically have two options: put Morse back in the outfield or create a 1B/DH platoon that gives all three of them regular days off. Realistically, they should probably do the latter.

Despite the team’s glaring lack of outfielders, Morse just isn’t physically capable of playing the OF at an acceptable Major League level. For his career, he has a -17 UZR in over 2,200 innings, and running at half speed, he’d be even worse. While playing the outfield, Michael Morse provides no value to the team, as his defense more than offsets any contributions he makes at the plate. He’s okay at first base, since doesn’t have to move around as much there, so limiting him to 1B/DH duties is more likely to keep him healthy and maximize his value.

Not that Jason Bay, Endy Chavez, or Raul Ibanez provide any value in the outfield either — or even the recent version of Michael Saunders, though at least he still has talent — but none of those three are going to have any trade value at the deadline. The Mariners could probably give Ibanez to a contender who wanted a left-handed bat off the bench if they wanted, but you’re not getting anything in return for him. Playing those three regularly is a problem from a winning games perspective, but you’re not actively tanking potential trade value.

With Morse, though, sticking him in the OF and giving his legs a chance to tighten up again might actually take away from the team’s chances of moving him for something in order to salvage some value from the debacle of a trade that brought him back in the first place. If the Mariners just tell him that he’s a first baseman who will get some DH at-bats too, they have a shot at keeping him healthy through the end of July, and might be able to convince an offensively challenged contender that he could fit into their needs for the stretch run. You’re not going to get a king’s ransom for Morse either, but there’s a better chance for teams to put in positive scouting reports on the guy while watching him play first base and hitting some homers than butcher balls in the outfield and missing time because his legs are hurting him.

Smoak isn’t good enough to be an everyday player anyway, and Morales’ health problems mean that scheduled days off aren’t the worst thing in the world for him. Toss in Morse’s leg issues, and the best bet here is probably for a 1B/DH rotation, giving all three a chance to play both spots but not asking any of them to be everyday players.

And then, in July, the Mariners can ship Morse off to a contender and play Smoak everyday the rest of the year if they want to give him a final push to see what he do as a full time player. For the next six weeks, though, a job share is probably in order, because the idea of Michael Morse as an outfielder just didn’t work.

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Justin Smoak Returning

The deal made perfect sense when it happened, and with the benefit of a half-season’s hindsight, it looks like one of the fairly rare cases wherein both teams ‘win.’ The Angels rotation had a FIP of 4.33, good for 21st in the league – and that was *despite* getting a full year from ace Jered Weaver. The back of the rotation fell apart as Ervin Santana and Dan Haren gopher-balled their way into terrible seasons, and Garrett Richards continued to confound the Angels (and me) by being crappy. But their offense looked great, and they added Josh Hamilton in the off-season. They used surplus corner IFs to cover their weakness, and it’s worked out great. Jason Vargas has been an excellent starter, having already eclipsed last season’s low fWAR and with an even better RA than last year’s. With the injury to Weaver, the Angels needed Vargas to be consistent, and he’s been exactly that.

The Mariners’ offense has been terrible since the dawn of the Bavasi era, and they needed an upgrade. They thought Kendrys Morales could not only replicate his rate stats, but improve upon them (adjusted for park/context, of course) the further from his injury he got. So far, so good. Morales has a slightly better wOBA and wRC+ playing every day than he did last year for LA. The M’s offense isn’t good by any stretch of the imagination, but their team wOBA starts with a ’3′ for the first time in a while, albeit barely (it’s at .300 on the dot). They needed a middle-of-the-order player to help them cash in when Seager and Ackley (ha ha…ha..ha) got on base, and he’s done so.

Unfortunately for both teams, there’s quite a gap between a trade working out perfectly and an entire roster working out perfectly. The Angels FIP is just a tiny bit better than last year, and Joe Blanton has inherited Santana’s HR problems. Jered Weaver went down, and Richards once again failed to grab the rotation spot that I thought he’d take back in 2011 or so. The M’s offense is better, but still not good enough, and unfortunately for them, injuries have wiped out much of the pitching depth they had when they agreed to trade Vargas. No one was ‘wrong’ here and both teams would probably make the deal again today. But both teams are waaaay out of the playoff race.

Vargas is much the same guy we remember from his days in Seattle with one exception: he’s stopped throwing his slider/cutter to lefties as much and has replaced it with a curveball.

1: Chavez, RF
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Morse, 1B
6: Ibanez, LF
7: Zunino, C
8: Saunders, CF
9: Triunfel, SS
SP: Harang

The Jackson Generals lost a 1-0 game today; Anthony Fernandez was the hard-luck loser.

Gonzaga alum Tyler Olsen makes his debut for Everett tonight.

A number of M’s draft picks signed, but there’s word that the M’s landed their biggest target – 2nd rounder Austin Wilson. His slot value was just over $1m, but as a guy many thought could’ve gone in the 1st round, it’ll be interesting to hear what the M’s had to commit to get his signature. Here’s hoping he suits up for Everett very soon.

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Game 71, Mariners at Angels

This is widely thought to be a bad thing, rushing prospects. Bad and irresponsible, and that’s made clear even by the simple word choice, since “rush” comes with negative connotations. To rush a prospect is to promote him quickly, before he seems ready, and consensus is teams shouldn’t do that with kids since those kids are arguably the most valuable assets. It’s generally an argument about long-term thinking: promote a guy too fast and he might be overwhelmed in the bigs. He might not be able to make the necessary adjustments. He might lose all his confidence, and a baseball player without confidence is an athletic baseball fan. Rushing a prospect is the first step toward ruining a prospect, and there aren’t that many steps.

We’re going to leave aside, for the sake of this post, talk about team control and Super-2 considerations. That has to do with money, and I just want to talk about the players. I think we all have a pretty good understanding of the importance of team control, so this doesn’t need to be talked about at length.

In a way, to ask “what is rushing a prospect?” is to ask “why are there minor leagues?” The minor leagues exist to help players develop on the way to making the majors. I like to go bouldering, which for those of you who don’t know is basically ropeless rock climbing. Different routes have different difficulties, starting with VB for “Beginner” and going from there to V0 and V1 and V5 and V10 and so on. When you just get started, you don’t go straight for V5 or V6. You start easier, and you learn techniques and improve, and you go up a level when you’re ready. This is just the way that it’s done, and if you went right for a V8, you might not ever get yourself off the ground. Or maybe you will. But the conservative approach is the accepted one.

We accept that players go through the minors in a certain order, some of them taking longer than others. But there’s a chain of levels, and players are supposed to hit every level. When they succeed at each level, they get promoted to the next. That’s what we take for granted to be the right approach, and so it catches our attention when someone moves quickly. Because it’s unusual, we always get talking about the risk. Who would be so irresponsible, with such an important young asset?

Seems to me the most general purpose of the minor leagues is to put a player in position to be able to confront the major-league challenge. Every single player, no matter how much time he spent in the minors, will have to adjust to big-league competition. Ten years in Triple-A won’t get a guy ready for the majors. The minors are supposed to tell you which guys are ready to try it out, and which guys require further development or evaluation. Which guys seem the most likely to succeed, and which guys seem the most likely to be able to handle failure.

Player evaluation can’t be done independently of competition level, but you can get close. Some guys can be ready soon, no matter where they’re playing. Not ready to be good right away, but ready to begin the adjustment process. It’s that last adjustment process that’s the most important one, the one when you get to the majors.

What happens when a player comes up and fails? He learns the adjustments he needs to make. He absorbs a shot to the confidence. He’ll try to make those adjustments, and he’ll work on them with a big-league coaching staff. He’ll either see progress, or he won’t. If the adjustments don’t take, the player might get demoted to the minors to work without the spotlight and pressure. But these are adjustments that would’ve had to happen. As for the confidence factor, the simplest statement to make is that players who wilt under self-doubt don’t advance that far. Players, also, can be evaluated during their slumps. They would’ve been evaluated when they were brought into the organization. With Zunino in particular, no one seems to doubt his ability to tackle some adversity. After all, he was just slumping in Triple-A. He handled it, he worked at it.

Surely, there have been prospects in the past who were rushed, and who wound up busting. Of that there’s no question in my mind. But at the same time, there have also been prospects in the past with whom teams were patient, who wound up busting as well. By “rushed,” I mean moved up quickly, questionably and aggressively. Prospects of all kinds fail, and prospects of all kinds succeed. Just yesterday I was noticing Jose Fernandez’s stats. He’s 20 and the Marlins promoted him straight from Single-A. He’s been outstanding. Rafael Furcal came up from Single-A. Rick Porcello came up from Single-A. Albert Pujols came up from Single-A. A group of “rushed” prospects will be selective for prospects teams think can handle the pressure and adjustment, but if it’s a dangerous strategy, where is the compelling evidence?

That’s really the heart of this post. We accept, almost to an individual, that rushing prospects is a bad idea. We think rushed prospects are those promoted too aggressively, or when they don’t appear to be ready based on their minor-league performances. But is there good proof, or is this just conventional wisdom that no one’s ever truly investigated? When the Tigers put Porcello in their rotation, John Sickels called it “batshit insane.” Porcello was fine, if underwhelming for a while, and while he’s only now started to strike guys out in the majors, he didn’t strike guys out in Single-A before he was promoted. Porcello was rushed, according to observers, and I think the Tigers would say it was a success.

Remember, a young player can always go back to the minors if he struggles too badly at first. The Red Sox were said to have rushed Jackie Bradley Jr., and he was demoted after going 3-for-31. If that dealt a blow to his confidence, though, it didn’t seem to matter, because Bradley immediately started hitting well in Triple-A, even though he’d never been there before. Alternatively, we might consider Aaron Hicks. The Twins were said to have rushed Hicks, and he finished April having batted .113/.229/.127. Since then, he’s batted .218/.262/.445, and while that’s not good, Hicks is learning on the job. He’s never played in Triple-A. Hicks is adjusting, like all prospects will have to do.

As for the confidence issue, if you have a player whose development might be stunted by experiencing a period of low confidence, that’s bound to come up eventually, whether he’s rushed or whether he’s taken care of cautiously. If these players exist, at some point they’ll slump, and when they slump, they’ll have bigger problems. You can’t leave a player in the minors for so long that he’s just immediately ready for the majors, no problem. There will be challenges, unavoidably.

I think our understanding of “rushed” is probably mistaken. I think the minor leagues, certainly, are important. You can never be fully prepared for the majors without having seen the majors, but you can be more prepared, and the more prepared you are, the smoother the adjustment. But I think adjustments can be made in the majors, and if not the minors remain an open option, and while I’m not closed off to the idea that moving a guy quickly can destroy his career, I’d really like to see some compelling evidence. Some careers are just destined to end up destroyed. I think, probably, there are guys who would be rushed, guys who shouldn’t be, but I don’t think those guys get rushed by their organizations. I think the players who get rushed, according to our definition, are the players who have been judged by their teams to be ready to meet the challenge. Take the Mariners. They’ve said they didn’t want to move prospects too quickly in response to short-term needs. They moved Zunino quickly, in response to a short-term need. Some of that, perhaps, was indeed desperation, but I think the team believes Zunino is ready to see what this level is all about. I think they believe he can handle it, physically and mentally. They wouldn’t have done this if they thought it would kill Zunino’s career. I don’t know why one would believe that it could.

I don’t think enough is known about how prospects are handled. I don’t think careers are as fragile as they’re made out to be.

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What Is Rushing A Prospect?

I’m traveling this week so today’s series preview comes with very abbreviated commentary. Just the facts, ma’am, as some old person might have said on some old TV program.

The Mariners offense has essentially been just Kyle Seager and Nick Franklin these past couple weeks. Which is better than just Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez for sure, but still isn’t that fun to watch.

17 JUN 19:05 – JASON VARGAS* vs AARON HARANG

18 JUN 19:05 – JOE BLANTON vs JEREMY BONDERMAN

Jeremy Bonderman finally gets enough sample to warrant a pitching graph below. If you only look at part of it, it’s fine!

19 JUN 19:05 – C.J. WILSON* vs JOE SAUNDERS*

20 JUN 19:05 – TOMMY HANSON vs FELIX HERNANDEZ

It’s not just Wilhelmsen, most spectacular culprit though he is, the bullpen as a unit has been scuffling of late with control issues.

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Mariners and Angels Battle for Third

I’ve seen a lot of Aquasox teams over the years and made various predictions based on roster composition and performance. This one, I just don’t have a good feel for. To broadly characterize the team, it’s composed of a lot of players who had high billing or showed elite physical abilities or flashes of potential at some point in the past, but who have yet to put it together or haven’t had the chance yet. This means a lot of potential for volatility. The team could have a bunch of breakthroughs and turn out to be amazing! It could also have a blend of good and lackluster performance and come out with a middling record. It could also continue along what has been more or less the status quo and just frustrate all of us. This is the scenario I least prefer.

To summarize what you’ll be seeing below, the bullpen arms are live and oft troubled, the catchers can catch and little else, the infield has a fair amount of hitting potential from a lot of the guys that we’re waiting to see in action, the outfield seems to be a mix of power guys and speed/defense guys, and the rotation is some sort of UN council.

Starting Rotation:

LHP Steve Ewing, RHP Rigoberto Garcia, RHP Lars Huijer, RHP Ricardo Pereira, RHP Thyago Vieira

One of the things I could say about this rotation is that every pitcher is from a different country. In fact, I just did. Respective to the above, the United States, the Dominican Republic, the Netherlands, Venezuela, Brazil.

Rigoberto Garcia interests me because he’s not the only Rigoberto Garcia that’s ever been in pro ball, and also because he’s big like Michael Pineda is big. Up until last year, he was ahead of Pineda on the timetable, having played in Pulaski at the age Pineda was still in the DSL, but now he’s behind, playing in the Northwest League at the age Pineda was in the Midwest League. Garcia demonstrated some progress last year with regard to his command, but he hasn’t been as averse to the walk as Pineda was. I make the comparisons because I don’t know anything about what Garcia throws, but he’s nominally the ace of the rotation and has been promoted somewhat aggressively over his career.

Huijer is getting another shot at the rotation after being a bullpen arm last year. He’s been level-to-level since signing as a seventeen-year-old with a decent track record of experience with various Dutch national teams. I’m kind of grasping here too, if you can’t tell, because Huijer’s track record is limited and less than appealing. He’s given up a lot of hits. He’s had less than two Ks for every walk in the States because he walks a lot of guys and doesn’t strike out quite enough. He’s hit a lot of batters for how little he’s pitched. This is one of those instances where I concede the fact that I know little about some of these players or why certain developmental decisions are made with them. I wrote this before he turned in a pretty impressive first outing.

I like Vieira as an object of interest, being a Brazilian player, but there was another Brazilian pitcher that I would have preferred to see in this rotation. Think we all know who. Vieira was a two-year guy in the VSL and started all of his second year. His first year, his command was so bad that he managed to walk twenty-two batters and throw eight wild pitches in just eighteen innings. Supply your own adjectives for that one. Last year, he spotted the ball much, much better, but still plunked twelve in fifty-five innings. He’s still trying to figure out how to pitch/strike guys out, but he wouldn’t have skipped the AZL and the Appalachian League without reason, I would hope.

Pereira, on the other hand, was in the VSL as long as permitted before showing up in Pulaski last year. But the VSL can be weird in its own ways and the first two years he was there he pitched a combined 24.0 innings. I feel like all I can do with some of these pitchers is reiterate the same basic materials: he’s given up hits, he’s walked a few too many, his strikeout rate is not spectacular or even good. This pitching staff is interesting in some ways but to this point, it hasn’t been for reasons pertaining to performance. That doesn’t mean they can’t break out, it is only to say that they haven’t.

Ewing gets the last spot in the rotation and you probably remember him from last season. He did all right, if you’re only looking at record and ERA. xRA liked him worse, with good reason, as he walked 12.4% of the batters he faced while striking out 15.7%. He was pretty good for the Miami Hurricanes in 2011, but then noticeably less good in 2012.

Bullpen:

RHP Aaron Brooks, RHP Min-sih Chen, LHP Tyler Olson, RHP Luke Taylor, RHP Jose Valdivia, LHP Nick Valenza, RHP Richard Vargas, RHP Richard White

Like the rotation, there’s some potential here mixed in with some struggles. A lot of the guys here were starters fairly recently, so there’s a chance for some shifting back and forth of roles. I’m only reporting on what I know right now. There are also a few local guys and few guys that throw rather hard.

The local contingent is Brooks (Edmonds CC), Taylor (Woodinville HS), and Olson (Gonzaga). Brooks got the bump after running a 21/3 K/BB in 18.0 innings for Peoria last year and inducing almost two grounders for every fly. The ERA wasn’t pretty, but the AZL is hostile territory and the other components have him as one of the pitchers I’m most interested to see. Taylor was talked out of a college commitment three years ago and went Peoria/Pulaski/Peoria in his three years as a pro. Initially, his control numbers were just awful and he wasn’t striking out nearly as many batters as one might like, but last year he started to get it together and one would hope that continues. Olson is your basic crafty lefty and I’d expect him in the long relief role this year, rotation next year. These guys can also sometimes shift to the bullpen, see also Cesar Jimenez, Bobby LaFromboise.

Guys with stuff include Vargas, White, and Valdivia. Vargas came up after one year in the DSL and has been back and forth, debuting in Pulaski before getting a brief tour in Clinton the following year, and now, Everett. He’s got as much heat as anyone in the system, but his arm can’t really take it. He lost 2011 to elbow surgery (stress fracture) and missed a lot of time last year with a shoulder strain. White, despite his name, is from the Virgin Islands, where I guess he might stick out amongst various Jabaris and Mumbas. Live fastball, as stated. Limited command and was stuck in Peoria two years with a lot of walks and wild pitches to show for it. Many, many years ago it seems, Valdivia was supposed to be the next big thing, but then he had Tommy John surgery his second year and hasn’t shown a whole lot since. He’s never topped 40 innings a season despite being active since 2009, and I think the bullpen move is conceding that he just has a rough time staying healthy.

Wild cards in this mix are Valezna and Chen. Valenza was drafted a couple years ago and would have been a high draft pick if he were taller, since he has the stuff and the secondaries. The org has used him mostly as a bullpen guy, where he’s gotten grounders, Ks, and a few too many walks. Chen is a former outfielder out of Taiwan who doesn’t yet have a great feel for pitching and has had a few injury scares in the past, mostly stress reactions from being new to pitching. His stuff is supposed to be good.

Catchers:

Christian Carmichael, Carlton Tanabe

Carmichael’s defensive abilities were strong enough to get him picked in the sixth round back in 2010. In his three minor league seasons leading up to this, he has played in exactly 55 games, only eight of which were outside of Peoria. Most of his experience has been in instructs and extended spring training, or at least the media guide is mum about any potential injuries he might have suffered (they are likewise quiet about his suspension for PEDs last season, which had him on the Clinton roster and not playing for fifty games). There are likely some expectations of him, starting the season in Everett. I wouldn’t be able to articulate what they are. His career CS% is around 42%, so that’s something.

Tanabe was drafted a year earlier and with a similar profile, though his shortcomings and free ride to a prominent junior college were enough to drop him to the 24th round. Tanabe is better traveled and has been on every roster in the system except Pulaski, with the longest tenure in Clinton at 48 games played, which should tell you something about how the organization has handled him. “But what about Tacoma? He hasn’t played a game there!” says someone looking at B-R. Yes, I saw him in the bullpen as an emergency backup back when I saw Pineda start there a few years ago. Whenever the organization has needed someone to fill in on a roster, Tanabe has been there. He hasn’t hit really. Neither of these guys have a track record of hitting. They should be able to handle a pitching staff though.

Infielders:

IF Bryan Brito, IF Martin Peguero, 3B D.J. Peterson, SS Jack Reinheimer, 1B Justin Seager

Probably the main source of intrigue on this team for most of us. Peterson has been on the roster, but won’t make his debut until tonight probably, since he wasn’t with the team on the road. What is there to say that I haven’t already? Peterson’s a good batter, and he’ll get some time here to try to prove he can stick at third. I think what I should add now is that, even if he puts up gaudy power numbers, I wouldn’t make too much of it because the NWL tends to be somewhat hitting favorable and I don’t expect him to stay with Everett for the duration.

People are probably interested in Seager next because he’s a Seager, but he bats right-handed and has certain defensive limitations. He did really well in his conference, led in some categories, won awards, had doubles and walks and various other good things, and would easily be the best baseball in most families except the one that he was born into.

I guess I would say I’m interested in Reinheimer in the same way I’m interested in the idea of catching lightning in a bottle without acknowledging it as something that’s done or understood even when it happens metaphorically. Reinheimer is a good glove with a rep as a limited hitter, but so was Chris Taylor, who is now awesome. Based on the sample size of one, Reinheimer might be awesome. See where I’m going with this? He’s easily the best glove on the roster and should help the pitching staff some.

I wish I had been able to list Peguero a little higher here because he was a big deal before his bonus was slashed and it turned out he wasn’t that good. We’ve had noticeable difficulties developing Latin American hitters in recent years regardless of their incoming reputations. Peguero’s value thus far has mostly been in his average. He was supposed to have some power too, but has only had one home run coming into the year. Since he puts the ball in play a lot, his stat line doesn’t have much in the way of walks or strikeouts generally. I qualify that because he walked twice in the first game of the season.

Brito is probably the team’s all around back-up. I’m confident about that one because, hey, the highest OPS he’s ever posted was in 2009, his rookie year in the DSL, when he .254/.331/.322. If ever there were a player I needed to spend a hundred words on, Bryan Brito is probably not him.

Outfielders:

LF Phillips Castillo, OF Michael Faulkner, RF Reggie Lawson, OF/2B Jamodrick McGruder, OF Alfredo Morales, CF James Zamarripa

Much familiarity here, but I guess I’ll start with Castillo, who is not familiar to this team. I had thought on peripheral numbers that Castillo might be able to pass Guillermo Pimentel on the depth chart last year, but while he did manage to drop his K rate, his walk rate also fell, and his BA, and his ISO, so it was all around a bad year for him. Now he’s here, still possessing decent tools, still trying to justify that lot of money that we gave him.

Morales wasn’t given as much money but still more money than people expected him to get. He was regarded by some as a sleeper prospect a while ago, but I think now it’s safe to say that he has overslept. He was pretty good a couple of years ago, returning to the AZL briefly, but last year wheren he got his show in Everett he didn’t do a lot with it, hitting .234/.294/.362. His brief tour of the Midwest League was even worse. Now that I’ve provided statistical rationales for why one might choose to not pay attention to him, watch him prove me wrong for reasons wholly beyond my skills of prediction.

McGruder could see some time on the infield, or he might not. Who’s to say? He’s played second before, but his hands aren’t supposed to be that great, and second basemen do need to use their hands. His speed is good enough for center, but when I saw him there were a few tracking and communication-related gaffes. He can walk. He can steal some bases. He doesn’t have much power and didn’t hit for a good average last year.

Faulkner is a pretty similar player in that speed and on-base percentage are important aspects of his game while power is not. He had a double last year. Just one. His average was a little better than McGruder’s, but he provided less of the peripheral stuff. I seem to remember hearing that he was in extended to start the year in an effort to improve his arm strength.

Lawson has good physical tools and is a big guy who’s still trying to figure out baseball and the like. He’s been a big strikeout guy the few years that he’s played, though he did demonstrate some ability to draw walks last year. He’s got the body type to suggest power, but it hasn’t come along yet and he’s maxed at six home runs (last year, Pulaski) and four doubles (both Pulaski and the AZL).

Alphabetically and actually last, we have Zamarippa, who was an off-radar sixth-round pick two years ago. He’s a good defender. He’s hit for average now and then, but we’re still waiting on his first pro home run. The outfield offensive capabilities seem split between “guys who do have power but don’t excel at using it” and “guys who do not have power.”

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2013 Everett Aquasox Preview

Happy fathers day to all the dads out there. Thanks especially to my own dad for taking me to the Kingdome in the early 80s, and helping to wrangle my kids when we head to Cheney stadium now.

A day after the M’s 41-year old Henry Blanco broke up a scoreless tie with a late grand slam (!), the Athletics counter with their 40-year old ace, Bartolo Colon. I still can’t quite believe that Colon is still pitching, effectively, in the big leagues. I can’t fathom that the fire hydrant-shaped fireballer who came up with the Indians is now a command pitcher whose game is based to a ridiculous degree on spotting a 90-mph fastball. The guy who walked around 4 per nine in the late 90′s/early 00′s now walks almost no one, especially right-handers. And of course, the guy who was busted for performance-enhancing drugs (finally, an explanation for this sorcery!) comes off his suspension, turns 40 and is posting one of the best seasons in his long career.

Many pitching coaches preach the value of simplicity and not trying to do too much. Colon would seem to be the poster child, or perhaps poster grandpa, for that principle. He throws about 80% fastballs at this point, most of them sinkers. He’ll throw a slider to righties and he’ll use the slider and a change to lefties, but they’re not exactly put-away pitches. With two strikes on a righty, he’ll throw a fastball 75% of the time. With two strikes on a lefty, it’s over 80%. When he’s behind in the count, it’s essentially a guarantee that the batter will see a sinker. There’s no ‘pitching backwards,’ no ‘out-thinking the hitter’ – none of those things that pitchers with tons of experience are often said to rely on. Colon has become successful not by taking the Jamie Moyer/Frank Tanana/Freddie Garcia route, but by giving up any pretense of ‘craftiness.’

Of course, by not throwing his change-up much at all, and relying on a sinker whenever he’s behind (and even when he’s not), he’s got platoon splits. This is actually a good match-up for fellow 40+ player, Raul Ibanez. By wOBA, he’s run about 80-point splits since his A’s debut. By FIP, it’s even more stark, with the gap at over 2 full runs. But the gaps are so big in large part because right-handers are just neutralized. And again, he’s annihilates righties despite not striking them out. His K% against righties in his year-plus with Oakland is right about the same as Joe Saunders’ career K% rate; that is to say, it’s low. He makes it work by not walking *any* of them, and by limiting home runs. His HR% to righties is under 1%, and that’s helped to keep his FIP against them well below 3. Lefties are another story, of course, though again, limiting his walks has helped limit the damage they can do against him. Against lefties (and, perhaps, when he’s away from the spacious Coliseum), his approach changes a bit – he gets more strikeouts, walks more, and pays a higher price for mistakes. But ultimately, he knows his own stuff and knows his home park, and he’s made his limited skillset work.

Hisashi Iwakuma turned himself into an elite pitcher, though he utilizes the tried-and-true method of using a knockout breaking ball to strike a bunch of people out. It’s not as bizarre as Colon, but everything about Iwakuma is more fun to watch that Colon, so there’s that.

M’s line-up:
1: Chavez, CF
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Morse, 1B
7: Bay, RF
8: Zunino, C
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Iwakuma

The M’s are going for a three-game road sweep of the first-place Athletics, which is almost as insane as Henry Blanco winning game two with a grand slam. Baseball often makes no sense, and I love that about it.

On a day the M’s face a righty with big platoon splits, Michael Saunders gets a day off and Jason Bay’s in the line-up. What’s sad is that it may be for the best. Saunders had a rough day yesterday, with some WPA-killing failures with men in scoring position against AJ Griffin, and his long slump doesn’t appear to be stopping any time soon.

These two teams’ AAA affiliates play today in nearby Sacremento with 39-year old Brian Sweeney getting the start for Tacoma.

The bigger story in AAA yesterday was a huge brawl between Memphis and Albuquerque. The Redbirds’ Maikel Cleto (ex-M’s prospect who went to St. Louis for Brendan Ryan) and Rob Johnson (well, you know) were involved. Video here. Hat tip to Mike Curto.

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Game 70, Mariners at Athletics

Happy Felix day! The M’s are celebrating by having Henry Blanco make his M’s debut. Kendrys Morales turns 30 in a few days, but he’s still barely in his 20s today. That gives the M’s four players in their 20s compared to just three over 35-year olds. This line-up is…something.

1: Chavez, RF
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Morse, 1B
7: Saunders, CF
8: Blanco, C
9: Ryan, SS
SP: King Felix

With Hector Noesi starting for Tacoma, maybe the most interesting SP in the M’s minors is Lars Huijer, the Dutchman who’ll start game 2 of the AquaSox season in Spokane.

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Game 69, Mariners at Athletics

Podcast with Jeff and Matthew: Direct link! || iTunes link! || RSS/XML link!

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Henry Blanco’s Arrival Prompts Matthew/Jeff Podcast

When good players become bad, concern follows, as it should. But I do want to bring something to your attention. Matthew and I just talked a little about this on the podcast, but you haven’t heard the podcast yet, so here’s some doubled-up content. On May 22, Wilhelmsen walked a batter in an otherwise clean inning. He threw five of 12 pitches for strikes. Since that day, he’s thrown 9.2 innings and 174 pitches, 52% for strikes. That’s a terrible, terrible rate, and that’s basically why he’s been demoted. And it’s odd, since before that stretch Wilhelmsen threw two of every three pitches for strikes. He became unreliable, suddenly.

2012 Tom Wilhelmsen wasn’t unreliable, right? No, he was indeed quite good, overall. But over an early 11-game stretch, he threw 58% strikes out of 230 pitches. Over the next 15 games, he threw 74% strikes out of 214 pitches. Later, over nine games between August and September, he threw 55% strikes out of 157 pitches. The rest of the way, over ten games, he threw 69% strikes out of 167 pitches.

Between August 20 and September 5, Wilhelmsen allowed a .395 OBP. After that, he allowed a .240 OBP. Last season, Wilhelmsen had some stretches of wildness, and he shrugged them right off. He came back to pitch well, never turning back into a pumpkin. That’s encouraging, because Wilhelmsen seems wild right now. His stuff isn’t the problem; the movement’s all there, and so is the velocity. There’s something either mental or mechanical, and Wilhelmsen has bounced back in the past.

Just because he’s rebounded before doesn’t guarantee he can do it again, of course, and you’d always rather a guy be good than not good. I don’t know specifically what the problem is, aside from the end result. I don’t know what’s causing the wildness, so I don’t know if that’s different from the occasional problems in 2012. But it is important to recognize that this happens, and that it’s hard to rationally deal with reliever statistics. It’s not that Wilhelmsen has been wild for ten games, so much. He’s faced 46 batters. That’s a small sample, the rough equivalent of two starts. Against 54 batters in consecutive starts in May, Felix allowed 11 runs. Since then he’s been awesome again. Relievers face so few batters that it’s easy to make too much of what might not be a terrible issue. For Wilhelmsen, this might be a very minor slump, made to look worse because of his high-leverage role. String together a few mediocre innings as a closer and people notice, more than they notice for a starter or setup guy.

You might’ve missed it, but through April 17, Charlie Furbush had 55% strikes, with seven walks and 11 strikeouts. Since then, he’s at 64%, seven, and 23. Furbush doesn’t have great command, and neither does Wilhelmsen, but their control is good enough, and sometimes they just occupy the lower extreme of their error bars. That’s the nature of true talent — pitch to pitch, things fluctuate, and there’s no such thing as a stable performance.

I don’t know if Tom Wilhelmsen is going to be fine. But his stuff is there, he’s not that easy to hit, and he’s come back from this before. He should benefit, mentally, from a break. Maybe he does need to make some kind of mechanical tweak or two. But it’s easy to become too worried about a struggling closer. This one’s probably still a good one.

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Making You Feel Better About Tom Wilhelmsen