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The Felix/Beltre Thing, GIFfed

Happy Felix Day!

The pitching match-up is obviously the story here. The M’s did a nice job taking pitches and making Darvish get himself in trouble in their first outing against him, but he’s gotten his command under control over the last few weeks, so they’ll have to get some hits tonight.

Ackley, 2B
Saunders, CF
Ichiro, RF
Seager, 3B
Montero, DH
Smoak, 1B
Jaso, C
Carp, LF
Ryan, SS

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Game 44, Rangers at Mariners

The Bakersfield Blaze have played in Sam Lynn Ballpark since 1941. Or at least they’ve been the Blaze since 1995, but they’ve been around since 1941. One night, in 1982, before they were the Blaze, a game that ran late resulted in the automatic sprinklers coming on while players were on the field. Various attempts were made to remedy this problem, such as the solution of standing on the sprinkler heads, most popular among four-year-olds, but the groundskeeper couldn’t be located easily and it took twenty minutes to find a shutoff. The problem of standing water remained, so Visalia’s team manager provided a novel solution: pour gasoline on the puddles, and try to burn them off. It worked. Sort of. The third base side of the diamond was badly burnt and wasn’t fixed until the offseason. Meanwhile, Visalia rallied and won the game.

And people wonder why I love minor league baseball.

To the jump!

Tacoma Rainiers (3-3 this week, 17-26 overall, 6 GB in PCL Pacific Northern)

The Week in Review:
Monday, May 14th 2012
Round Rock 6 (TEX – 5), Tacoma 13
W: Marquez (3-3, 5.62) L: Perez (3-3, 5.27)

Tuesday, May 15th 2012
Round Rock 11 (TEX – 4), Tacoma 3
W: Reynolds (3-3, 4.11) L: Snow (0-4, 8.17)

Wednesday, May 16th 2012
Off day

Thursday, May 17th 2012
Tacoma 3, Omaha 2 (KC + 9)
W: Henn (3-0, 3.65) L: Smith (1-3, 4.01) S: Pryor (1)

Friday, May 18th 2012
Tacoma 4, Omaha 5 (KC + 10)
W: Jeffress (3-2, 4.84) L: Jimenez (0-2, 6.94) S: Bueno (3)

Saturday, May 19th 2012
Rain out

Sunday, May 20th 2012
Tacoma 5, Omaha 8 (KC + 11) (seven innings)
W: Mazzaro (2-0, 4.91) L: Marquez (3-4, 6.45) S: Sisk (5)

Tacoma 4, Omaha 0 (KC + 10) (seven innings)
W: Vasquez (5-2, 4.44) L: O’Sullivan (3-3, 6.27)

Hitter of the Week:
LF Carlos Peguero, L/L, 2/22/1987
6 G, 23 AB, 4 R, 7 H, 3 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, CS, 5/2 K/BB, HBP, .304/.385/.696

It seems inevitable that it will happen at some point this season. There’s not much we can do about it. Now that Carlos Peguero is healthy and has resumed hitting, he will eventually be called up. Acknowledging that we’re working with a pitiful eleven-game sample, has much changed since last year? In 2011, while with Tacoma, Peguero walked 5.8% of the time and struck out 31.8% of the time. Long-time followers of him will know that those are not typos. This year, he’s struck out 29.1% of the time, and I’d say that’s within the margin of error, and he’s walked 10.9% of the time, which might not be within the error margin, but small sample. This has ended up being less meaningful than I hoped it would be, considering how little he’s played. Just Beware. Beware.

Walking and Power Sphere Mention:
DH/1B Luis Antonio Jimenez, L/L, 5/7/1982
6 G, 21 AB, 5 R, 6 H, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 2/5 K/BB, .286/.423/.476

Not Walking or Spherical Mention:
RF Chih-Hsien Chiang, L/R, 2/21/1988
5 G, 16 AB, R, 5 H, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 3/0 K/BB, .313/.294/.563

Pitcher of the Week:
LHP Anthony Vasquez, 9/19/1986
1-0, GS, 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP, 3 H, 2/3 K/BB, 5/7 G/F, WP

Prior to the series with Omaha, Mike Curto tweeted that the Storm Chasers led the league in runs scored while the Rainiers led the league in runs allowed. It looked to be one of those classic meetings of irresistible force and movable object, which usually results in something going “zoom.” And then The Out Whisperer came ’round. Omaha didn’t even manage to get a runner past second until the final inning. To that point, every time someone got on, there would be a pickoff or a double play that would quickly erase the threat. This is just how it is when he’s on his game. Cheers to you, Anthony Vasquez, you are in many ways incomprehensible.

A Less Effective Out Whispering Mention:
RHP Andrew Carraway, 9/4/1986
0-0, GS, 2.57 ERA in 7.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2/3 K/BB, 9/3 G/F, BK, HB

From The Training Room:
In Tuesday’s day game, SS Carlos Triunfel got hit in the left wrist by a pitch. You see, it’s not always a matter of them getting good when they leave, it’s a matter of them getting injured when they get good. Think about it and I’m sure you’ll be able to cite many examples. Anyway, the good news is that he played Thursday and has continued playing, so I guess that he’s all right?

Strange Happenings:
The Round Rock series was supposed to be a big deal because at some point, assuming that the Rangers organization stopped jerking him around as to whether he was going to be making his start in triple-A or the big leagues, Martin Perez was going to show up. He’s kind of a big deal you know. And so Monday night, he did show up. And he lasted two innings, with seven runs scoring on eight hits, two walks, and two Ks. Suckerssssss… Former Rainier Andy Barkett is managing the Jacksonville Suns in the Southern League this year. Jamie Burke is also managing the Cedar Rapids Kernels. You wanted to know… In the first game of Sunday’s DH, the Rainiers scored three runs without an extra-base hit or a walk and that’s pretty much the Mariners way.

Jackson Generals (4-2 this week, 26-17 overall, 1st in SL North)

The Week in Review:
Monday, May 14th 2012
Jackson 4, Tennessee 15 (CHC – 6) (seven innings)
W: McNutt (1-3, 2.84) L: Paxton (3-2, 3.58)

Jackson 3, Tennessee 1 (CHC – 7) (seven innings)
W: Moran (1-2, 0.49) L: Beeler (0-3, 3.89) S: Capps (3)

Tuesday, May 15th 2012
Jackson 8, Tennessee 10 (CHC – 6)
W: Weathers (2-1, 4.26) L: Hensley (0-2, 2.78) S: Cabrera (2)

Wednesday, May 16th 2012
Off day

Thursday, May 17th 2012
Mobile 2 (ARI + 8), Jackson 4
W: Hultzen (4-3, 1.81) L: Bolsinger (0-1, 1.35) S: Capps (4)

Friday, May 18th 2012
Mobile 5 (ARI + 7), Jackson 13
W: Hernandez (2-0, 3.18) L: Eitel (3-3, 4.96)

Saturday, May 19th 2012
Mobile 1 (ARI + 6), Jackson 2
W: Hensley (1-2, 2.66) L: Kaczrowski (0-1, -.–)

Sunday, May 20th 2012
Rain out

Hitter of the Week:
1B Steve Proscia, R/R, 6/26/1990
6 G, 22 AB, 5 R, 8 H, 3 HR, 6 RBI, CS, 1/2 K/BB, .364/.417/.773

Huh. When Proscia was promoted, I showed some concern with the whole affair because he was hitting .431/.453/.843 at home and .286/.333/.329 on the road. Justifiable concerns, right? Proscia has been up for nine games and has hit four home runs. This wasn’t something I anticipated. But looking at the splits a bit closer, three of the home runs he’s hit were at Tennesse, which is friendly to dingers in general. Their L/R HR park factor is 130/124, the highest in the league by a good margin. Their pitching staff is also tied for first in home runs allowed, and the two are probably related. So, if you’re curious as to whether or not I’m still concerned about Proscia as a viable hitting prospect, the answer is an emphatic “yes.”

Seven-Game Hit Streak Mention:
UT Eric Campbell, R/R, 8/6/1985
5 G, 21 AB, 6 R, 7 H, 2 2B, 3B, 6 RBI, 4/1 K/BB, .333/.364/.524

On-Base Machine Mention:
DH/CF Daniel Carroll, R/R, 1/6/1989
5 G, 17 AB, 6 R, 6 H, 2B, RBI, 2 SB, CS, 2/4 K/BB, .353/.476/.412

Pitcher of the Week:
LHP Danny Hultzen, 11/28/1989
1-0, GS, 1.29 ERA in 7.0 IP, 3 H (HR), R, 8/1 K/BB, 8/4 G/F, HB

If you’ve been following along for a while (I tend to wrongly assume that you have), you’ll know that I’ve been concerned about Hultzen. It’s not the hits, because his average against is .133 (holy crap), it’s the walks. For much of the season, as far as walks per nine innings went, Hultzen has been right there with Paxton, whose command we had already been concerned about. As I was saying last time around, in his eight starts he’s walked three or more five times. This time around, he only walked one and retired thirteen of the last fourteen batters he faced. Mobile isn’t one of the league’s great offenses, but they aren’t bad at drawing walks. We’ll see if this was a sign of things to come when the Generals take on Montgomery this week.

Closer? Mention:
RHP Carter Capps, 8/7/1990
0-0, 3 G, 2 SV, 0.00 ERA in 4.2 IP, 2 H, 4/0 K/BB, 3/6 G/F

Extra Pitching Notes:
Paxton did the Jekyll/Hyde start thing this week. On Monday, he took his second loss after letting five runs score on three hits (two HR), four walks, a balk and a couple Ks. He was followed by Yoervis Medina, who is bad more often than not, and did not disappoint, giving up six runs in a single inning with no outside help. When Saturday’s start came around, Paxton was on his game again, going six strong with one scoring on a solo shot to go with three other hits, a wild pitch, a hit batter, two walks, and six Ks… Taijuan Walker lasted just two and two-thirds innings with a run scoring on three hits, two hit batters, a walk, and three Ks. He left early because he landed on his ankle funny, which is great, because the ankle is not part of the arm.

From the Training Room:
RHP Moises Hernandez came off the DL on Monday, which I guess was the delayed corresponding move to Carraway’s promotion. Hooray!… Wednesday, DH Joe Dunigan landed on the DL retroactive to Monday. The corresponding move on Thursday was that IF Anthony Phillips came in from Clinton. Why, they’re not alike at all! But Jackson already had Kalian Sams around, so… whatever… Nick Franklin didn’t bat from the 10th to the 18th because he was out with a thumb injury. His first game back he was 4-4 with a double, two triples, and a walk. Awesome.

Strange Happenings:
Proscia now has the same OPS (through three digits) in the Southern League as he did in the Cal League. Wha?… Thursday was supposed to mark a much anticipated showdown between Trevor Bauer and Danny Hultzen, but at the last minute, Bauer was promoted to triple-A because THE DIAMONDBACKS ORGANIZATION IS POPULATED BY COWARDS… That ERA with all those dashes in Saturday’s game? Chris Petit hit a walk-off HR and it was the first batter the guy faced.

High Desert Mavericks (3-4 this week, 23-21 overall, T-1st in CAL South)

The Week in Review:
Monday, May 14th 2012
Visalia 4 (ARI – 2), High Desert 14
W: Fernandez (2-1, 3.38) L: Hernandez (3-2, 3.52)

Tuesday, May 15th 2012
Visalia 26 (ARI – 1), High Desert 11
W: Holmberg (5-3, 3.72) L: Sorce (1-2, 7.11)

Wednesday, May 16th 2012
Visalia 13 (ARI 0), High Desert 7
W: Chafin (3-0, 3.30) L: Gillheeney (3-1, 4.28)

Thursday, May 17th 2012
High Desert 4, Rancho Cucamonga 7 (LA – 4)
W: Sanchez (3-2, 5.36) L: Hobson (0-1, 11.57) S: Eadington (2)

Friday, May 18th 2012
High Desert 7, Rancho Cucamonga 6 (LA – 5) (ten innings)
W: Kesler (2-1, 6.75) L: McGough (2-2, 3.10) S: Smith (1)

Saturday, May 19th 2012
High Desert 5, Rancho Cucamonga 6 (LA – 4) (ten innings)
W: Eadington (1-0, 6.75) L: Raga (0-2, 7.15)

Sunday, May 20th 2012
High Desert 11, Lancaster 4 (HOU + 2)
W: Stanton (2-1, 6.82) L: Martinez (1-3, 6.55)

Hitter of the Week:
LF/CF Julio Morban, L/L, 2/13/1992
6 G, 22 AB, 6 R, 10 H, 3B, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 6/4 K/BB, .455/.500/.818

Assuming he’s healthy and stays that way, Morban has been one of my favourite stories this year. It’s not just that he’s been hitting (40.5% extra base knocks for your reference), it’s that everything I’d ordinarily be concerned about in a prospect’s splits are reversed. I’m concerned about L/R splits in left-handed bats. Morban is .351/.400/.623 against right-handers and .400/.467/.800 against southpaws. I’m terrified of looking at home/road splits with High Desert hitters. He’s .316/.344/.614 at home and .422/.500/.733 on the road. The only thing I feel like I could rightly ask for is a little bit more playing time and some walks, because if he qualified (he just barely misses qualifying), he would have the best OPS in the California League right now.

A Walk Now and Then Couldn’t Hurt #1 Mention:
3B Mario Martinez, R/R, 11/13/1989
7 G, 32 AB, 7 R, 14 H, 3 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, CS, 3/0 K/BB, .438/.438/.813

A Walk Now and Then Couldn’t Hurt #2 Mention:
C John Hicks, R/R, 8/31/1989
7 G, 34 AB, 4 R, 10 H, 3 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 7/0 K/BB, .294/.294/.647

Has Twice as Many Walks as the #2 on the Team Mention:
SS Brad Miller, S/R, 10/18/1989
7 G, 28 AB, 7 R, 11 H, 2 2B, HR, RBI, 3 SB, 5/6 K/BB, HBP, .393/.514/.571

#3 in Walks Mention:
RF James Jones, L/L, 9/24/1988
6 G, 24 AB, 6 R, 9 H, 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, CS, 3/2 K/BB, .375/.423/.667

Pitcher of the Week:
RHP Taylor Stanton, 1/15/1988
1-0, 2 G (GS), 2.77 ERA in 13.0 IP, 15 H (HR), 8 R (4 ER), 6/3 K/BB, 22/5 G/F, WP

The rotation got a little wonky when Tuesday’s starter left early, and Stanton, being the guy who came in for long relief, ended up taking over the spot for Sunday’s game. Given that opportunity, he threw a complete game. Who could have guessed? But then again, it was the kind of complete game I’ve seen every now and then here: four runs, eleven hits, 6/1 K/BB. That diminishes the enthusiasm a bit, but the groundballs are legit and appear to have helped him this season. His rate stats are mostly worse, relative to his last tour of High Desert, but his tRA has been better in large part because some extra sink on his pitches has helped him avoid the longball. I could see him in Jackson later this season, dependent on what’s going on in their rotation.

Lacking Options This Week Mention:
RHP Jonathan Arias, 2/8/1988
0-0, 2 G, 4.50 ERA in 4.0 IP, 3 H (HR), 2 R, 6/2 K/BB, 1/4 G/F, 2 HB

From the Training Room:
It was something I wasn’t thinking about particularly because of the fifteen-run loss thing, but RHP Chris Sorce lasted just an inning and a third on Tuesday and the next day it was revealed that he would go on the disabled list with a forearm contusion. RHP George Mieses, with whom I’d seen no issues, also hit the DL with shoulder soreness. To fill in the gaps, RHP Tim Boyce was activated from the DL, where he had been to start the season, and LHP Cameron Hobson came in from Clinton. Hobson has been a bit inconsistent for the Lumberkings and so I’m more than a little worried he might have trouble in High Desert. At least he keeps the ball on the ground. And he did keep the ball down in his first start! Sort of! 7/3 G/F! That’s good! 4.2 IP, 7 H (2 HR), 7 R (6 ER), 2/1 K/BB. Not good… Saturday afternoon, the Mavericks picked up two guys from Clinton, C Carlton Tanabe, because three catchers is not enough, and IF Carlos Ramirez. UT Patrick Brady, who had been with the team and was hitting .286/.333/.414 (low in High Desert terms, but not bad), was sent to Clinton. Tanabe didn’t play this week, but neither did Coleman, who could be injured for all I know.

Strange Happenings:
There were thirty-seven runs scored in the game on Tuesday evening and that’s still fourteen runs shy of the all time scoring high I’ve seen since we’ve been there. At the same time, I may be coming around to being there in the same sense that Mike Curto eventually learned to love playing games in Colorado Springs… Miller made three errors this week, which qualifies as a blip on the radar, I think… Coming into Sunday, the Mavericks led the minor leagues with 6.68 runs scored per game and are you surprised?

Clinton Lumberkings (4-3 this week, 16-27 overall, 10.5 GB in MWL Western)

The Week in Review:
Monday, May 14th 2012
Clinton 2, Beloit 5 (MIN + 8 )
W: Gruver (3-3, 3.54) L: Landazuri (3-2, 3.27) S: Dempster (3)

Tuesday, May 15th 2012
Clinton 0, Beloit 1 (MIN + 9)
W: Shibuya (2-1, 2.25) L: Taylor (1-3, 5.14)

Wednesday, May 16th 2012
Peoria 4 (CHC – 4), Clinton 5
W: Corrales (2-0, 2.57) L: McDonald (0-1, 2.84) S: Hunter (2)

Thursday, May 17th 2012
Peoria 4 (CHC – 3), Clinton 3
W: Francescon (5-1, 1.86) L: Miller (1-3, 4.14) S: Lorick (6)

Friday, May 18th 2012
Peoria 2 (CHC – 4), Clinton 8
W: Hidalgo (2-5, 4.87) L: Rosario (3-4, 4.37)

Saturday, May 19th 2012
Quad Cities 3 (STL – 1), Clinton 5
W: Griffin (2-0, 1.78) L: Hernandez (3-3, 3.57) S: Hunter (3)

Sunday, May 20th 2012
Quad Cities 11 (STL – 2), Clinton 12
W: Colvin (1-0, 1.80) L: Revesz (0-1, 27.00)

Hitter of the Week:
CF Jamal Austin, R/R, 8/26/1990
6 G, 25 AB, 5 R, 9 H, 4 2B, 2 RBI, 2 SB, CS, 1/2 K/BB, .360/.407/.520

As of Sunday, Austin has hit safely in 27 of 33 games and has a safely reached streak spanning those same 33 games, which is the longest streak in the league this year. I referenced some of this last week. What was interesting to me this time around is that four of his nine doubles on the season came this week despite the week itself comprising about 15% of his total at-bats. Power had been one area where I had been concerned with him, though I didn’t expect that to change all that much given that he’s listed a 5’9″ and 170 lbs. Walks, on the other hand, seemed like an area where more could be done, and he just logged his tenth of the year on Sunday. I’ve suggested Jamal Strong as a possible career model before, but looking over Strong’s stats, he topped out at twenty-three doubles a season and Austin is making good pace so far. The issue is more that, in the same season, Strong walked ninety-one times and Austin is pacing for just over thirty. That’s a not-insignificant difference.

Not Quite a Starter, But Pretty Good #1 Mention:
OF Mario Yepez, S/R, 6/15/1988
5 G, 19 AB, 3 R, 8 H, 2B, 2 RBI, 3/1 K/BB, .421/.450/.474

Not Quite a Starter, But Pretty Good #2 Mention:
UT Dillon Hazlett, R/R, 1/22/1989
5 G, 17 AB, R, 5 H, 2 2B, 3B, 2 RBI, CS, 3/0 K/BB, .294/.294/.529

Pitcher of the Week:
LHP Kyle Hunter, 6/18/1989
0-0, 2 G, 2 SV, 0.00 ERA in 4.1 IP, 5/0 K/BB, 1/4 G/F, HB

With the way the rotation has been, I’ve missed a few opportunities to highlight the work that the bullpen has been doing. A lot of that boils down to my criteria for selecting pitchers too, but the chance came up to talk Hunter and I’ll take it. Hunter got on the radar soon after he was drafted (31st round, for reference) because he ran a 62/9 K/BB between two short-season stops last year. I figured that might be enough to get him a look in the rotation, but thus far he’s continued on in relief and has changed things up a bit as far as how he pitches. The story this week is strikeouts, but for the season he’s rung up roughly 20% of the batters he faced whereas last year it was 31.6%. With the shift, we’ve also seen a drop in walks, just 2.5% this year compared to 4.6% last year, and he’s gone from an average against of .277 to one of .200. So, the overall strikeouts have gone down, but he hasn’t been missing the plate much and has been inducing what looks like poor contact. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in over a month and the only hitter to reach against him this week reached unsafely. Baseball!

Long Relief Hero Mention:
RHP Tim Griffin, 3/1/1988
1-0, 2 G, 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP, 3 H, 5/1 K/BB, 5/7 G/F

Other Solid Reliever to Be Highlighted Later Perhaps Mention:
RHP David Colvin, 1/7/1989
1-0, 2 G, 1.80 ERA in 5.0 IP, 4 H (HR), R, 9/1 K/BB, 4/1 G/F

Good-ish Start Mention:
RHP Ambioris Hidalgo, 2/4/1991
1-0, GS, 1.50 ERA in 6.0 IP, 3 H, R, 3/2 K/BB, 11/4 G/F

From the Training Room:
Around the time Hobson was promoted, RHP Stephen Landazuri hit the DL with shoulder tendinitis, which is quite lame. One move was that RHP David Colvin came in from extended to join the team on Thursday, and the other moved was that on Friday, LHP Jeremy Dobbs came in from extended. He’s now in the rotation… I didn’t have major expectations when Phillips left, but the result was SS Ketel Marte being called in from extended. Marte is a slick fielding 18-year-old who played a year in the DSL, batting .259/.341/.336, before getting moved up, and he might have otherwise been our best shortstop in the short-season teams had he not been moved up early. The glove did not make the trip with him, however, as he made three errors in his first start… New faces continued to join the Mavs as, with the Ramirez, Brady and Tanabe shuffle, CF Janelfry Zorilla and C/1B/DH Ji-Man Choi flew in from extended. Choi went 2-for-4 with a double in his first game! The downside to that is that OF Guillermo Pimentel hit the DL and with how he had been hitting that makes me put on a big old sad face.

Strange Happenings:
Before the win on Wednesday, Clinton had lost eight in a row. As of Sunday, they’ve won three in a row… Shipers was also a participant in the Jekyll/Hyde start phenomenon. On Tuesday, he only struck out one, but allowed just six hits, a hit batter, and a walk through seven innings. He also picked off a pair. Good seeming! Sunday, he let eight runs (seven earned) score on eight hits (2 HR), two walks, and two Ks through four and a third innings. The weird thing is that Beloit is #3 in offense behind Quad Cities at #1, so it’s not as though there was a huge difference in the quality of competition.

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Minor League Wrap (5/14-20/12)

You might remember Christian Friedrich as one of the many players we could have selected back in the first round of the 2008 draft instead of Josh Fields, a college reliever with bad command who has never made any progress. Okay, that was a Bavasi/Fontaine pick, but Zduriencik still went ahead and signed Fields after he held out until the following spring.

Montero is back in the lineup after his day off.

2B-L Ackley
LF-R Wells
RF-L Ichiro
C-R Montero
3B-L Seager
1B-R Liddi
CF-L Saunders
SS-R Ryan
P-L Vargas

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Game 42, Mariners at Rockies

The M’s go DH-less for three days in a National League park, and to start the series, Jesus Montero is the guy losing out on playing time, as John Jaso gets the start against a right-hander. He’s certainly played well enough to deserve more playing time, and Montero isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire this year. I’d imagine you’ll see Montero back in there tomorrow.

Also, to protest the constant focus on batting order, I present today’s position players in alphabetical order. They’ll all bat a few times, except maybe Millwood, who is probably pitching for his job the next few times out.

Dustin Ackley, 2B
Mike Carp, LF
John Jaso, C
Kevin Millwood, SP
Brendan Ryan, SS
Michael Saunders, CF
Kyle Seager, 3B
Justin Smoak, 1B
Ichiro Suzuki, RF

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Game 41, Mariners at Rockies

“The main thing is scoring runs, so you need to stack up your best hitters up front. You forget about trying to put a guy in the second spot just because he can hit-and-run and bunt. After the first six hitters, you should put your best hitters in front of the [lesser] hitters. The bottom of your order should be the bottom. I’ve never been a big believer in the idea of having a second leadoff hitter. I don’t like putting a guy in the nine-hole who should be hitting in the seven- or eight-hole. To me, you have to maximize at bats. Your better hitters should have a shot at getting that extra at bat.”

The Cleveland Indians replaced Eric Wedge with the guy that said that. Also, check out his final paragraph on bunts. Yes, the game is changing – slower at the field level than the front office level, but it is changing, and changing for the better.

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Some Intelligent Commentary on Batting Order

So has Delabar been the victim of bad luck? Almost certainly. His true talent probably isn’t anywhere near 3 HR/9. Still, Delabar has now given up 7 HRs in his brief 25 IP career. This is more than luck – this is a function of Delabar’s serious problems with right handed batters. The HR by Jose Lopez today was the 7th Delabar’s given up to a righty. That is to say, all of them.

Quick -who’s been the M’s most effective pitcher against lefties this year? Lucas Luetge? Charlie Furbush? Jason Vargas? It’s an absurdly small sample size, but the runaway winner, yielding a wOBA of .063, is Delabar. Lefties are 1-25 off of him this season, and 2-37 against him overall. He’s K’d 11 of those 37 and given up 4 free passes. The M’s were stockpiling LOOGYs this spring, and they seem to have missed that their most effective lefty-killer is actually their right-handed set-up man. How?

Delabar’s relying a lot on his fastball, it’s true. He’s used the pitch around 70% of his nearly 450 major league throws. It’s been reasonably effective against both lefties and righties, though he’s now given up 5 HRs this year on it. As Dave talked about, this is what happens when hitters sit on the fastball. His primary breaking ball is the real reason for his bizarre platoon splits – his splitter. With over 10″ of armside run, the pitch acts a lot like a change-up (which is why gameday/pitch fx often calls it a change-up). As Max Marchi showed a few years ago, change-ups often have a reverse platoon split.* Delabar’s strictly a two-pitch hurler against lefties, and they can’t touch him. Both the fasbtall and splitter break away from lefties; the vertical drop of the splitter apparently appears too late for lefties to adjust. But for righties, both his fastball and splitter break in. His fastball break shouldn’t be a huge problem on its own, but it’s possible that his inability to differentiate it from his breaking ball’s making him look really predictable. It’s not like he’s afraid to go to the splitter against righties – he’s used it about 30% of the time, the same percentage as lefties. Moreover, he’s never given up a HR against the splitter.

His problem is that he’s got nothing breaking the other way – away from righties. A slider or a curve would give hitters something else to think about, and sliders often have huge platoon splits – think of Jeff Nelson or, more currently, Shawn Kelley and Lucas Luetge. Of course, Delabar has a slider – it’s just not very good, and he’s thus not very fond of using it. Coming into today, he’d thrown all of 22 (Ian Kinsler took one deep in Arlington). It’s got the makings of a decent pitch, with good movement and high-80s velocity, but he’s obviously not that confident in it. Delabar has the tools to be a good set-up man in the majors, but this lack of confidence is a problem. Righties are killing Delabar right now – they’ve got a wOBA of over .400 in his brief career. Some of that’s luck, but Delabar clearly has to change something. If he goes to Tacoma to make room for Pryor or to accommodate Blake Beavan, he should focus his efforts on his slider. With a weapon to use against righties, he can be – he SHOULD be – a great set-up man. As it stands, he’s a LOOGY whose continually asked to get righties out.

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More on Steve Delabar

But, alas, we’re not going to get to see anything that dramatic, and instead, the roster changes will be announced with a press release including some quotes from Jack Z about how the team is “committing to the youth movement” and are “excited to see what our home grown products can do”. Maybe they’ll wait until the end of the month, maybe they won’t, but the roster turnover is inevitable at this point. The team has already started putting the wheels in motion, moving a couple of arms to Tacoma to set them up for big league spots in the near future.

The first domino in the chain of moves will be the return of Miguel Olivo, which sounds like it is about a week away. He’s going to join the team in Colorado this weekend, then go out for what has been described as a “short rehab” assignment, so I’d guess he’ll get 2-3 days in Tacoma before they activate him. His return will mean that a position player has to go, and since they used his injury to bring back Mike Carp, it’s going to be someone who started the year on the club.

In reality, there’s two obvious candidates – Casper Wells and Chone Figgins. Eric Wedge showed today that he’s willing to use Liddi as a right-handed option in left field, which essentially duplicates Wells skillset and pushes him out of a job if that becomes a more regular occurrence. Wells, though, is at an age where more time in Triple-A isn’t all that likely to do him any good, and if you’re going young, he’s worth keeping around since he theoretically provides some long term potential. Figgins is the guy without a job on this team anymore, with no future in the organization, and with no remaining chance of establishing any value. When Olivo returns, Figgins should be the one to go. Signing him made sense, but it didn’t work, and it’s just time to cut bait and let him try to salvage the remainder of his career somewhere else.

Now, I know some of you will argue that if the team is tossing the useless old guys overboard, Olivo probably should just join Figgins on his way out of town. But, unlike Figgins, there actually is a role for Olivo on this roster. While we can all hope and pray that Wedge has noticed that John Jaso is actually a decent hitter against right-handers, he’s useless against lefties, and the team doesn’t have many better options against lefties behind the plate.

While Montero and Jaso should still split a good chunk of playing time behind the plate the rest of the year, having Olivo around to play against left-handers and pinch hit for Jaso isn’t the worst use of a roster spot. Ideally, the roster adjustments will lead to Wedge acknowledging that Olivo shouldn’t be the “starting catcher” anymore, but if he gets back into the habit of playing him behind the plate most everyday, then I’ll advocate for Jack to just take away his favorite toy in order to force him to use Jaso more often, but there’s room for all three guys on the roster if they’re utilized correctly.

So, Olivo in and Figgins out. Not much of a youth movement, eh? Well, the reality is that the Mariners don’t have much in the way of interesting position player prospects down in Tacoma, especially with Vinne Catricala forgetting to how to hit a baseball. The offense is already pretty young anyway, so you probably won’t see many changes to the position players. On the pitching side, though, there are more moves to be made.

Let’s start in the rotation. Forget about Danny Hultzen, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker for now. They’re all talented kids, but they’re all also having some ups and downs in Double-A, and there’s simply no reason to rush any of them to the big leagues prematurely. All of them could use another couple of months in the minors, and Walker could probably benefit from not seeing Seattle until 2013. So, while there are almost certainly some pitching changes coming soon, they probably won’t involve any of those three.

Instead, the two arms that I’d expect to see on the roster sooner than later are Erasmo Ramirez and Stephen Pryor. Ramirez, you know about, since he spent the first month of the season functioning in long relief. They sent him back to Tacoma to get him stretched back out to start, and he’s done his usual thing for the Rainiers, throwing strikes and getting ground balls. He’s first in line for a promotion, and would likely be the guy to replace Kevin Millwood or Blake Beavan in the rotation if the team decides to cut bait on the 37-year-old or shift Beavan to the bullpen.

Millwood’s pitched better than his ERA would indicate, but he’s starting in Colorado tomorrow, and that could ugly enough that he might very well end the month of May with an ERA over 6.00. There’s obviously not much upside there, and while the team might like having a veteran in the rotation, they’re itching to see what Ramirez can do as a big league starter, so it might be easier to release Millwood than shift Beavan into relief work.

What happens over the next week or two with those two could determine who stays or who goes, but it’s pretty likely that one of them will not be in the rotation come the beginning of June, and Ramirez will almost certainly be the one tabbed to take their place. If they did decide to move Beavan back to the bullpen, the reliever to head back to Tacoma would probably be Steve Delebar. His K/BB ratio has been fantastic, but he gave up his sixth home run of the season today, and given how reliant he is on his fastball, it’s pretty clear that opposing hitters are just sitting on that pitch right. Some time in Tacoma to work on his slider could do him some good, and moving Beavan back to relief would allow them to shift Shawn Kelley into the setup role and give them another multi-inning reliever besides Hisashi “I’m only used as a last possible resort despite the fact that I’m actually pretty good” Iwakuma.

If they went with releasing Millwood instead, Delebar might still end up back in Tacoma, as the team is going to have to send someone down in order to call up Stephen Pryor, and he’s essentially forcing their hand right now. They moved him up to Tacoma after he proved too good for Double-A hitters, and he’s now just making Triple-A hitters look silly. He got two more strikeouts tonight in saving a one run game against Omaha, and he’s now given up just five baserunners (two hits and three walks) in seven innings pitched for Tacoma, striking out 11 of the 25 batters he’s faced. His stuff is top-shelf, with a fastball in the high-90s and a knockout slider, and he’s ready to face big league hitters right now.

Pryor could get his feet wet in middle relief, but there’s a decent chance that he could be causing a mini-closer controversy at the end of the year. Tom Wilhelmsen is obviously next in line for saves, but Pryor’s actually got better stuff and might be better suited to the ninth inning role. This might sound ridiculous, but Pryor could probably close for half the teams in the Major Leagues right now – his stuff is that good.

Speaking of closers in a post that talks about roster changes, that brings us to Brandon League. I had hoped the M’s would move him before he had a performance like the one he tossed up there today, but unfortunately, they kept him around long enough to have a pretty noticeable metldown. And now, they’re kinda stuck with him for a bit, as they’re going to need him to string together some dominant performances so that they’re not marketing a guy with a 10/10 K/BB ratio and a career low ground ball rate as some other team’s bullpen savior. So, now, League’s probably here for a while, or at least until he straightens himself out and starts pitching like someone another team would want to trust their ninth inning leads to again.

Okay, so, Olivo/Ramirez/Pryor – maybe it’s not the massive influx of youth you were expecting. But, I’d expect that we’ll see some moves to get all three of these guys on the roster in the not too distant future.

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Reshaping the Roster

An early morning game against the Indians with a struggling starter on the mound? This is going to be a ratings bonanza for ROOT Sports…

Alex Liddi gets his first professional start in left field tonight after playing a couple of innings there last night. While I know that this is just about getting Liddi in the line-up a bit more often, it is a little strange that they’re using Liddi in left. If they wanted a right-handed hitter with some power who strikes out too much to play left field, they could just use Casper Wells, who is basically the outfield version of this skillset. There’s really no reason to prefer Liddi to Wells, especially not once you factor in the defensive difference. But, once the BABIP comes down and his line doesn’t look quite so shiny, I’m sure we won’t see this too often. It’s just a blip on the radar.

Ackley, 2B
Saunders, CF
Ichiro, RF
Seager, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Liddi, LF
Jaso, C
Carp, DH
Ryan, SS

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Game 40, Mariners at Indians

Happy Felix Day!

Saunders moves up… you know what, screw it. The line-up doesn’t matter. All this time being spent talking about batting order is just a giant waste of time. Batting order has a very small impact on a team’s performance over the course of the season. It just isn’t worth all this attention.

Ackley, 2B
Saunders, CF
Ichiro, RF
Montero, C
Seager, DH
Smoak, 1B
Liddi, 3B
Figgins, LF
Ryan, SS

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Game 39, Mariners at Indians