So… Vlad. If I were to make a list of the Top Ten moves I’d like the M’s to make this winter, Vlad Guerrero would be all ten. Maybe not all ten, but if the price is right, even if the price means you let Garcia walk, he’s the guy to spend it on. And not even for entirely rational reasons of performance: I believe a huge part of the M’s problems last season were that the whole offense ran off two players, Boone and Edgar, and when they slumped, it was lights out for run-scoring.
And here’s the other scoop: there are almost no teams in baseball who have any money to spend at all. Of those teams, the M’s are the only team that can offer Vlad a place to be on a contender out of the spotlight. Seriously, Seattle is a town where people know where the players live and don’t bother them much. People who live around Ichiro, who can sign a ball and add $150 to its value, know he enjoys his privacy and let him be. I saw John Olerud in Bellevue a couple weeks ago, driving his convertable, top down, and people would look, recognize him, and that was that.
Of course, when Buhner went shopping wearing his baseball cap, he’d stop and sign autographs for everyone, but Bone’s cool like that, and when he had to get on with his business, people were cool back.
Alex Rodriguez used to walk down the streets of Seattle and people would give him the nod, and let him on by. I saw Ken Griffey driving some massive tricked out Chevy on his way to a game, and when he stopped, the pedestrians crossing the street on their way down the game gave him a smile and a wave, and he went on his way.
Now, call us a bunch of rubes. Call us unsophisitcated jerks who aren’t friendly enough to approach a ballplayer, whatever you want. But if you’re a guy like Vlad, who doesn’t want to get assaulted in a diner for muffing a play that night, if you want to be able to chill around town and have people be cool, I don’t think there’s a better place for you than Seattle.
So there. Sign Vlad, move Ichiro to CF, hoooooooooooooooooowah. Then get a decent 4th to rest ’em, oh baby.
So… the M’s are willing to offer Ichiro $10M per season, while his agent wants at least $15M. Folks, that sort of contract just doesn’t make any sense. For that kind of money the M’s could sign Vlad Guerrero.
Blogosphere Update: Bob Mong says of Bavasi “I’m not exactly optimistic, but I’m hopeful.”
I guess I’m the only one who doesn’t want to judge Bill Bavasi, 2003 GM by the standards of Bill Bavasi, 1994-1999 GM. That was a completely different ballgame. Jeffrey Hammonds was getting long term contracts. Mike Hampton got $100 million. Dot-Coms were booming, everyone had money, and it was a giant spend-fest. Yea, the Mo Vaughn contract sucked, and it should have been apparent at the time that it was a bad deal. But that was, what, 7 years ago? I’ve learned a lot in the past 7 years, and I’d imagine I’ll learn a lot in the next 7 years. Can we perhaps imagine that Bill Bavasi isn’t the same guy he was 7 years ago? I’d like that. Now, back to the team.
The biggest decision the Mariners have to make is in center field. It is apparent that Mike Cameron is moving on, though
Bob Finnegan’s assertion that he’s only worth $2-$3 million per season is just absurd. With Cameron leaving, you have to assume that the much worse and similarly compensated Randy Winn is going to shift to center field, causing the team strength of 2003 to become a weakness in 2004. To compensate, they absolutely have to find a left fielder who can mash to offset the loss of outfield defense. I’m firmly in the camp of anti-right-handed power hitters at Safeco Field, so the new LF almost certainly has to swing from the left side. That eliminates pretty much all of the big sexy names. And, for the love of God, can we please stop with the nonsense about Raul Ibanez being the answer. Yea, he’s left-handed, but he’s not any good. He put up a very average .294/.345/.454 line in a hitters park last year. Look at these home/road splits:
Home: .316/.361/.482
Road: .274/.328/.427
He’s the outfield version of Aaron Boone, except that he doesn’t play good defense at an important position. Take him out of Kansas City, then factor in that next year is his age 32 season (hello decline phase!) and Ibanez is the giant black-hole who is going to steal $15 million from whoever is dumb enough to sign him.
Now, as for Garcia, I think he’s probably going to get traded. The Mariners can actually offer him a 20 % paycut, but there’s no way he’ll take it. With the M’s depth of young arms, desire to get Soriano into the rotation, and the areas frustration with underachievers, I’m guessing we see a change-of-scenery trade, where the M’s take on someone elses underachiever in exchange.
And yes, I think the M’s take Guillen to arbitration, but likely shop him around during the winter. There’s probably a mid-market team who could use a shortstop but doesn’t want to pay a ton for him that would toss a C level prospect to the M’s for a $3 million version of Carlos Guillen. I’m guessing the M’s keep Guillen, make a run at Matsui or some other shortstop, and figure out what to do with Glass if they land the new guy.
The other major decisions come in the bullpen. Do we think that Arthur Rhodes ankle was what caused him to turn to crap overnight? If so, then you re-sign him, because he was the best left-handed reliever in the game the previous 3 years. If you think it was decline in talent, you let him go, because left-handed relievers aren’t exactly tough to find. If Bavasi shows an interest in plugging the talent from Tacoma and San Antonio into the bullpen, the M’s could save a lot of money by giving roles to two of Taylor/Looper/Putz/Simpson/Sherrill/Madritsch. Personally, that is the way I would like to see them go. Let the veterans get their millions elsewhere and create a tilt-a-whirl bullpen, much like in Minnesota, of good arms who can pitch effectively for 4-5 batters at a time.
If I can find some more time in the next few days, I’ll post a list of the guys I want and the guys I really don’t want. You can probably guess which list Raul Ibanez will find himself on.
Two things I’m seeing in response to the Mo Vaughn argument:
1) It was perfectly defensible at the time. I think we’ve shown that’s is not the case, and smart people then said so. I’ll agree those first couple of years were a decent gamble, but that seems to be all anyone who wants to excuse the contract focuses on. Look at the length, and the massive escalation, and see that it’s a dog. Woof.
2) At least Bavasi had the stones to step up and make a huge impact signing, unlike Gillick.
This last one… well, it’s a bad argument on the surface. To make a silly analogy, if Bavasi went out and signed Todd Hollandsworth to a 5y, $125m deal, would anyone be happy we finally had a GM who would take risks? Bavasi took a risk on Vaughn, that’s for certain, but it wasn’t a decent gamble, like playing craps, or doubling down on eleven, this was more stacking the team payroll on number 37 and letting the wheel spin.
Also, Gillick’s made a couple of big signings, and I don’t understand why he doesn’t get any credit for them. Olerud was a free agent. Boone’s contract pre-empted arbitration/free agency (and I thought that deal was a mistake and they should have taken him to arb repeatedly, which shows what I know). And as for risks that didn’t turn out, he took a huge one on Cirillo that didn’t turn out.
Here’s the question of the day: What was the best signing or trade Bavasi ever made in his years as the Angels GM?
I wrote a long post today about why I blow a gasket sometimes over feedback, and the nature of writing in public, internet criticism, and so on, and so forth, but instead of posting it, I deleted it. Who cares, really? Let’s talk Mariners.
More from the blogosphere:
SS Mariner reports he’s “Not not happy” but instead taking a wait-and-see.
One sixteen says “Overall, it could have been worse” and is pulling for Bavasi (also feels the Mo Vaughn signing was cool, which is nutty).
Just Another Mariners Blog is underwhelmed. Not that he doesn’t like Bavasi, but more that he’s not a great hire.
Bavasi faces some big choices right off the bat.
Does the team take RHP Freddy Garcia to arbitration?
Even if they win in arbitration, the maximum pay cut they can win is only 10%, which puts him at $6.25m. Garcia’s likely to refuse a lower one-year deal if the M’s say “Here’s $4m or we’re tossing you into the market.” Is Garcia the awful pitcher of 2nd-half 02/first-half 03, the erratic pitcher of the second-half 03 season, or the ace we saw earlier in his career? Only one of those is worth $6m. A side issue is whether they’ll find someone who wants to trade for him. If there’s a team out there willing to offer us a box of donuts for the rights to take Garcia to arbitration, he’ll most likely be gone.
Does the team take SS Carlos Guillen to arbitration?
Glass is above-average offensively (though not by much) and he’s average defensively. His value is tempered by his amazing ability to get hurt and miss time every year. I expect right now, Guillen’s out there, cracking his foot on the front step of his house, tripping forward and banging his forehead on door, causing the Halloween pumpkin he forgot to take down to fall on him, smashing, after which a wild pack of ravenous dogs attack him. Guillen’s services are worth a couple of million, and that’s what he’d get in arbitration. But having Guillen on the roster requires the team to stock a good backup shortstop who can fill in, and that doesn’t come so cheap.
I’m going to assume, with Cameron gone and the outfield up in the air, that they haul Winn into arb as a matter of course.
I can’t believe there are people out there defending the Mo Vaughn contract, either its dollars or duration. I said at the time — over on Strikethree.com, but darned if I can find the column now — it was a horrible signing for a variety of reasons: his age, his position, his health… you name it. It was a bad signing any way you look at it, and you don’t need 20/20 hindsight (as many have suggested) to call it such.
Why Mo Vaughn was a horrible, horrible signing, and anyone should have seen that coming
Mo Vaughn was 30, coming off eight years in Boston where he’d been a spectacularly good hitter in a good hitters park. However, even then, Vaughn was six-one and closing on three bills, no matter what the press guide told you. He wasn’t mobile at first and was going to be a DH shortly (where his value is much less), and huge dudes aren’t good bets to remain healthy. His walk rate dropped badly in 1998, which should have been a warning sign. On a sort of character note, Vaughn spent a lot of time driving back and forth to Rhode Island, where the strip club laws were more lenient (his DUI came on a return trip), and Vaughn did not want to leave the East Coast and its nightlife (that Vaughn signed the contract and didn’t wait long before starting to whine about wanting a trade back to the other coast says a lot about Vaughn).
The Angels and Bavasi need a 1b, though, and Bavasi signs Vaughn to this deal (from MLB Contracts):
1999: $5.0M (+$13.0M signing bonus, $5.0M paid initially)
2000: $9.0M
2001: $11.0M
2002: $10.0M
2003: $15.0M (plus remaining $8.0M of signing bonus)
2004: $15.0M
2005: Team option $14.0M or $2.0M buyout
However, that differs from what I pulled from USA Today’s historical payroll numbers:
1999 $ 7,166,666
2000 $ 11,166,667
2001 $ 13,166,668
2002 $ 12,166,667
2003 $ 17,166,667
Either way, you see the problem. While Mo Vaughn might have been a good deal initially for his age 31 season, this is a contract that absolutely cripples the club late. Vaughn was going to get paid $15m+ at 35 and 36, when there was no way a rational person would think he’d be worth that in either year.
Mo Vaughn’s salary, ranked in MLs: 1999, don’t know, about 30th? 2000, 9th. 2001, 6th. 2002, 15th. 2003, 4th.
Mo Vaughn was signed to a deal where Vaughn would have to be one of the best hitters in the league through the life of the contract when it was obvious, even if you think that Vaughn was worth it initially, that Vaughn was a terrible bet to remain a healthy and elite player through age 36.
You can argue that the contract was part of the times, that long-term huge deals were all the rage and Bavasi was just caught up in the enthusiasm. I don’t care, he should have been smarter than that. Find a better investment. Say what you will about his record, and we’re probably responsible for more shots at him than anyone, but Gillick’s stubborn refusal to go long-term on players saved this team from making exactly those kind of mistakes.
Bavasi messed up. We shouldn’t let the desire to give him a honeymoon blind us to the fact that he made a colossal error in the Vaughn contract.
When Neyer wrote that, I think he meant “Go forth and write, or go forth and expand your head, but don’t just sit around and snipe.” He didn’t mean “Start writing or watch me write, suckers!!!” as some seem to have taken it.
For those of you emailing/commenting elsewhere that we’re a bunch of statheads who wouldn’t support anyone without a laptop for a head, could you please email us your favorite tobacco shop? We’d love to know what you’re smoking. We’ve argued continually here for a state-of-the-art modern hybrid GM, someone who weights scouting with performance evaluation, who won’t look at how good a guy looks in uniform if they flat can’t hit and won’t get overly enamored with someone who hits well while old in a hitter’s park in the minors. Dave and I endorsed Antonetti, not some RoboGM 2000.
What particularly bugs me about this is that we get crap for being stathead zealots who won’t listen to any opposing viewpoints and for being wishy-washy and not sticking to our guns when we do things like (for instance) detailed looks at Melvin’s managerial habits that show he’s not such an idiot after all. If everyone could get together and come up with one line of attack, that’d be a big help.
Rob Neyer once wrote —
If you think what I do is easy, then do it. Teach all of us something. And if you’re not ready to do that, then learn. Elsewise, you’re just wasting your time and ours.
Seriously, get out there and start writing. I would love to see an active Mariners blogsphere with dozens on dozens of other viewpoints, arguing over this stuff. Right now here’s what the other guys are saying:
The Safe thinks Bavasi’s an unknown
Mariner Musings hasn’t said anything pro/con yet.
The SS Mariner isn’t happy.
Dave’s Mariner Blog comes back from a month-long hiatus to say Bavasi’s a good choice. In particular, that Mo Vaughn was a perfectly defensible signing… which is crazy talk.
Bob Mong was distracted by the ferry sale.
The Bremerton dudes “have a good feeling” about Bavasi.