DMZ · December 16, 2003 at 7:03 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Here’s my long-not-awaited 2004 season rough cut estimates of what happens to the Mariners next year

Offense changes


Winn to Ibanez = -10 runs (yes, I’m serious)

Cameron to Winn = wash

Rotating 3b to Spiezio = +15 runs

Rotating OF subs to McCracken = -10 runs (and that’s generous)

-5 runs

Defense changes

Winn to Ibanez = -10 runs

Cameron to Winn = -20 runs

Rotating 3b to Spiezio = -5 runs (ish)

Rotating OF subs to McCracken = wash (and maybe an upgrade)

-35 runs

Pitching changes

(Moyer, Meche, Pineiro, Franklin, Soriano)

Garcia to Soriano = +15 runs (but really, anyone’s guess)

Franklin to normal Franklin = -10 runs

+5 runs

(Sasaki, Mateo, Guardardo, Hasegawa, Soriano, ??)

Rhodes to Guardardo = +5 runs

Nelson/Benitez to random guy from AAA: -5 runs

+0 runs

That’s an overall drop of 35 runs, which puts the team a hair under 90 wins. What that doesn’t include, though, are the matchup problems with the lineup that we’ve been pointing out, the team’s natural age-related decline (it’s an oooold lineup), the vulnerability to lefties… I would bet that others out there will take a crack at this (I think Peter at Mariner Musings has the gap at ~50 runs overall before he started to take a swing at defense).


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