Do not try and explain the M’s plan. That’s impossible. Instead… only try to realize the truth.
The truth?
There is no plan.
Cruising around the sphere tonight and catching up on the blogs I don’t read regularly, I saw that the Mariner Optimist felt like I challenged him (for the second time, apparently, since he took one of my earlier comments personally as well), and went on to post his explanation for the offseason we’ve just been subjected to. I felt compelled to respond, and the next hour of my life and several thousand keystrokes of my computer created a pretty typical reply, with arguments and statements sprinkled with statistics to back them up. Then, about five minutes before I was ready to hit post, my connection went away. And it stayed away for the rest of the night. Given this new-found-time to ponder, I thought about the words I had put down, and decided to post this instead.
I don’t agree with nearly anything he wrote, and I think the gaps in logic are big enough to drive a truck through. But rather than drive that truck, I’d rather go down the path of least resistance. He’s a Mariner fan who wants the team to win. Believe it or not, so are we. If Quinton McCracken launches a game winning grand slam in the World Series, I’ll be jumping up and down hugging strangers just like he will. We won’t be arguing over whether his 2002 season was a fluke or if he’s really a replacement level talent. We’ll be celebrating the team’s success. In the end, we want the same thing. We’re all fans here, and hostility towards people with opposing viewpoints isn’t going to get us anywhere. Calling us pessimists and statarazzi simply affirms the fact that you don’t really know us very well. Keep reading, browse the archives, and keep an open mind about our intentions.
Perhaps when I get back from Florida (yes, start your jealousy, as I leave for the Grapefruit League tomorrow), I’ll post the thoughts on the place of statistical analysis in the game that I’ve been having lately. Between the Optimist and those Olympians, the sphere has finally added some viewpoints from people who don’t feel that statistical analysis is all its cracked up to be. There’s enough truth in their criticisms to make their point kinda-sorta-valid, but we must be careful to avoid throwing out the baby with the bathwater. In the end, blind optimism is just another shade of ignorance, and I don’t subscribe to the ignorance is bliss theory.
I’ll be back next week, tanned, and ready to knock out a big ‘ol season preview that will probably surprise the heck out of you who think we can only say bad things about the club. Until then, enjoy Jason and Derek holding down the fort.
Hi, folks, Derek here. People sometimes email me and say, “Derek, I notice you’re not posting as often. You’re not down at Slugger’s already, claiming a primo bar stool for Opening Day, are you? Because I thought I saw you there.”
And the answer is “maybe”.
I want to talk for a minute about the state of the team and how recent decisions reflect the amazing paucity of foresight, planning, and talent evaluation.
Nothing the team has done indicates that they consider the future products of the farm system as potential assets. Take, for example, the prospect closest to the majors, Chris Snelling. Snelling is a left-fielder. He can’t play centerfield well enough defensively and I’m not sure you’d want him to, given his injury problems. The team signed Raul Ibanez to play left field for three years at much more than anyone else comperable got this off-season. The team won’t consider moving Ichiro! even if it’s the right solution to their problems. So Chris Snelling has no place to play for the Mariners for years, unless you figure that Raul Ibanez will move to first after this season, when he would be almost as bad relative to others at his position as Olerud is, except without the defense. The team’s given no indication that they’ve thought this far ahead, though. Plus, that new guy at third presents a corner IF dilemma, too…
This isn’t necc. bad: prospects frequently flame out, or get injured and never come back, or they’re used as trade bait. But the best teams (like the dominant Braves teams, or even the early versions of the current Yankees) make way for their best players to contribute, because that’s a great way to building a winning team: cheap good prospects allow you to spend around your other problems.
In this way, for each situation where you think someone is close, especially the super-prospects, the good teams do this:
– bring in one servicable veteran or patch together a platoon, one year at a time, while you
– let the prospect force their way up
Now, take Jamal Strong. He’s going to be 25, and there’s not a whole lot of development left for him to do. He’s not going to be a star, and… well, he’s probably not going to be a particularly good player, either. Speed guys with no power who get on base with walks have a pretty bad track records. But in the past we’ve seen Strong adapt at each level, and maybe he can offer the Mariners something for $0 that they badly need — a backup OF who can play passable defense anywhere, pinch-run and pinch-walk as needed, and since he’s a righty, potentialy spot for Ibanez once in a while, since Ibanez is really, really bad against lefties.
Still, BP’s PECOTA pegs him at 200 ABs, .243/.317/.336. That’s not a lot of contribution. Oh, but wait, the guy we traded Colbrunn for, McCracken — he’s got a projection of .258/.314/.370, which isn’t much better.
Both players do have more potential: McCracken coud, as some speculate, do better with more playing time (where? the magical playing time fairy). But PECOTA’s high-end projections for both of them are about the same — OBPs about .380 with little power.
Meanwhile, bringing in McCracken sent Colbrunn out. Now, a disclaimer: Colbrunn’s health is an open question. The team may believe he’s never going to be effective again. If that’s the case, though, you wonder why Arizona’s doctors cleared the trade. But Colbrunn’s a right-handed hitter who can play first and (spotted occasionally, in a pinch) third. The M’s sent Colbrunn away with cash to get back a player who is so much like Jamal Strong it’s uncanny.
The team now needs a a right-handed hitter who can play first to spot Olerud. Given the vast array of choices available to them, they brought in nobody.
So they traded away something they needed for something they had, paying enough money to make that work out as well. Then to replace their newly-created need, they did nothing.
Right-handed hitting first basemen available this off-season, off the top of my head: Wil Cordero, Andres Galarraga, Eric Karros, for starters. The team brought *none* of them in. These were guys looking for work, who signed short, cheap deals, not with the M’s. If the team really had any plan like “sign short-term guys to keep positions open”. And there’s no argument that these guys all signed with the Yankees, because they all came pretty cheap.
For extra outfielders, there were a ton of interesting choices. Former star prospect and Snelling-like injury magnet OF-R Ruben Mateo is only 26 and signed a minor league deal with Pittsburgh. C/OF-R Ben Petrick is probably never going to get his shine back, but if he does, pow! (PECOTA, for instance, doesn’t see him getting many ABs in any situation, and his average hitting is .222/.306/.403, but the 90% is .253/.386/.469 (!)). I don’t like him, but OF-R Shane Spencer’s been a good platoon partner and can play the corners, he signed for a spring training invite.
For a spare bat, the Yankees sold 29-year old 1B/DH-B Fernando Seguignol (.261/.332/.476) to Japan (!) which, unless I misunderstand my transactions, means any MLB team could have snagged him (and even if that creates bad vibes, a- it’s the Yankees, and b- they sold him, and the M’s have money). He’d have been a fine choice to sit on the bench and mash the ball, step in for Edgar every couple of games…
There is no rational reason the Mariners could not have easily assembled a good bench offering better options for Melvin, even obeying his platoon-split obsessions, while providing better defense and flexibility around injuries.
This is the case with almost all of the Mariner moves. No philosophical set of beliefs about what they’re doing or why they’re doing it explains anything. Trying to justify what’s gone on this off-season is like the increasingly convoluted theories astronomers came up with for celestial motion when they were tied to the earth-as-immobile cosmology: the other planets revolve around the Earth in differing rotations, with tiny retrograde rotations to explain the wobbles, and weird hitches of long duration to explain eclipses…
Similarly, you can construct theories of the off-season that make the team seem okay.
The team wants to construct a bad bench so minor leaguers can take bench spots soon, if they’re ready, and they picked the worst bench players possible because they want those players to be easily discardable, and uh… they traded Colbrunn because they knew his wrist would mean he can’t hit for power anymore, and they didn’t fill that hole in the bench because… uh…. their secret plan for a mid-season acquisition will take care of that…
There is an alternate explanation: there is no plan.
“Plurality should not be posited without necessity.”
The simplest solution that fits the facts is the one that should be selected.
This is going to be kind of funny, given that Dave and I took essentially opposite sides of a similar argument before, but I don’t really pay any attention to spring training noise about playing time or roles this early. Now, I agree that Bavasi has managed to haul in such an amazing group of non-prospectus and non-players that it would be difficult to do worse without offering minor league contracts with non-roster invites to retired and/or dead players. But while I’d like to see Bavasi able to cogently explain the organization’s philosophy or plan (or anything to give us hope that someone other than Toonces is at the wheel), I really don’t expect Melvin’s going to have a discouraging word about anyone. Managers always make noise about how no one’s job is safe, everyone has a shot, even Bret Boone could find himself sitting on the bench if Wee Willy Bloomquist hits .600 with good power during spring training… it’s hilarious that he has to say these things about some of these guys, but Toonces, look out! Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!
Well, BP ’04 arrived at my house today. I haven’t had time to look at very much of it, outside the M’s chapter and a few players from my fantasy team, but so far I like what I see.
One thing did jump out at me, though — Justin Leone’s translated stat lines. In real life, Leone hit .288/.411/.541 last season. BP tells us that, despite the fact that he played in a pretty extreme pitchers’ park last season, that line would have been .235/.341/.455 had he played in the majors instead of the Texas League. I’m not saying they’re wrong, I’m just saying I’m surprised. I mean, ouch. That’s one heck of a translation.
Then you have the bullpen. Assuming everyone is healthy (that means you, Eddie Guardado and Rafael Soriano), we know the following pitchers are locks: Guardado, Soriano, Hasegawa and Mateo. That leaves two spots, at least one of which will be a left-hander, probably one of Mike Myers, Terry Mulholland or Ron Villone. Of those three, Villone is an easy pick because he’s the only one on the 40-man roster. I also think he potentially has value as a long reliever or even as a starter, whereas Myers is good for just a batter or two. That said, Myers has been the toughest by far on left-handed batters over the past three seasons, and right-handers haven’t hit him nearly as hard as they have Mulholland. So there you go; Villone and Myers it is.
Let’s talk about the bench, shall we? We know who the starters are going to be, and we know Ben Davis, Dave Hansen and (shudder) Quinten McCracken are going to be on the bench. After that you’ve got two spots — an infielder and some sort of utility guy who can play a little of this and a little of that. As of right now, I’d guess those two spots will be filled by Ramon Santiago and Willie Bloomquist. Is that the best allocation of talent (and I use the term loosely)? Nope.
Santiago and Bloomquist are redundant, in that they’re both infielders. Except that Santiago can legitimately play shortstop, whereas Bloomquist can’t. Looking at the roster, this team needs a backup shortstop. I know it will be considered blashpemy by many, but Willie Bloomquist shouldn’t be on the opening day roster.
For the fifth and final bench spot, I’m going to endorse a player Dave ripped yesterday — Hiram Bocachica. Like Bloomquist, Bocachica plays both infield and outfield, except that he has more outfield experience than Wee Willie. He also has some pop in his bat, which I think is something Dave missed when discussing his offensive shortcomings. In his 333 career major league at-bats, better than 41% of his hits have gone for extra bases.
There you have it. Just say no to Willie Bloomquist and Eric Owens, and yes to Ramon Santiago and Hiram Bocachica. Hey, I never said it was a good bench, just the best one the M’s can carry given their current personnel.
Okay, I know I was just saying a few weeks ago that none of the stuff Melvin tells the press matters, and I still believe that, but now we’ve got this:
Outfielder Eric Owens, who signed a minor league contract on Feb. 10, threw his bat into the ring Wednesday afternoon. Owens hit a solo home run to left-center field in the second inning as the Mariners defeated the Angels, 7-1, at Tempe Diablo Stadium.
Owens, 33, heated up last season about the same time the Mariners turned cold. The right-handed hitter batted .355 (33-for-93) with the Angels last season after August 1.
“We brought him in with the possibility of him making (the team),” Melvin said.
We covered this when Owens signed, but there’s absolutely no justification for a major league team with any intentions of achieving anything but a high draft choice carrying Eric Owens on their roster. During the prime of his career, he sucked, and that was three years ago. He’s declined from Replacement Level Roster Filler into Completely Worthless Waste Of Time. And now he’s being considered for a roster spot becuse he got hot after the Angels were out of contention last year and whacked a home run in spring training? This is clear evidence of an inability to judge talent.
Quinton McCracken has the lock on one of the reserve roles as the fourth outfielder and Dave Hansen figures to be a sure thing as a backup infielder and primary pinch hitter.
Here’s the question of the day, but who on earth is Dave Hansen going to pinch hit for? Keep in mind that he’s utterly useless against left-handers, so he would only be brought in to a circumstance where a right-hander is on the mound and presumably won’t be lifted for a one out lefty. Among the regulars, the catcher of the day is the only player who hits right-handers worse than Hansen, and managers almost never pinch hit for their catchers, fearing a situation where the backup gets injured and the team has no alternatives. So, the primary pinch-hitter will only be used in situations where he’ll decrease the likelyhood of the team scoring runs. Brilliant! Moving on…
That leaves Owens competing with Willie Bloomquist, Ramon Santiago and Hiram Bocachica for two roster spots, although Bloomquist actually has a grip on one of the roster spots.
Bocachica has come out of nowhere to put himself into the picture, going 4-for-12.
“You can throw him in the mix,” Melvin said.
If Eric Owens has degenerated into a Completely Worthless Waste Of Time, and he’s still twice the player Hiram Bocachica is, then I’m out of not-too-witty slurs on untalented players and have nothing to say about Bocachica even being considered for a spot on the roster. In 314 major league at-bats, he’s posted an on base percentage of .261. But, hey, he’s 28, maybe he’s due for a career year. He only has to beat that .233/.287/.376 line he posted back in 2001. Consider this; the Detroit Tigers lost 119 games last year, and even they only found him fit to earn 22 at-bats on their roster. He rewarded them with 1 base hit. And for hitting .045/.045/.091 for the worst team we’ve ever seen, he has a chance to make our roster. I’m at a loss for words.
Now, none of this is likely to have any impact on the 2004 season, since I can’t imagine that even our braintrust would carry Bocachica or Owens for long enough to do any real harm. But, to those who still hold out hope that we’re wrong about Bill Bavasi and he has some kind of master plan that is only apparent to those with rose-colored glasses, please, let us know exactly where these guys fit in that plan. How does having two of the worst players in any spring training camp fighting for roster spots on a team built to contend make this team better? How were they unable to find anything resembling a major league player with their non-roster invitees? What part of the plan necessitates wasting spring training at-bats on washed up players who never had a prime?
As hard as we’ve been on Bill Bavasi, it is quite possible that we’ve overrated his abilities as a GM. He might not just be the worst talent evaluator in the game today. There’s a fighting chance that he’s the worst talent evaluator in the greater Seattle area, which includes my Mom and her innate ability to predict Dan Wilson’s next hit is just around the corner because “he’s due.” Don’t like statistical analysis? Fine, I have no problem with that. Think there’s more to the game than numbers and offensive production? Great, I agree. But I can’t imagine that even those whose sole point is to be contrarian for the sake of it can find anything positive to say about the fight for the last few spots on this roster.
Am I the only one who really wants Griffey back, no matter the cost?
Aw, hell, who am I fooling? I was going to take the other side on this one for the sake of discussion, but I just can’t do it. I expect that he’ll have one more good season (meaning he stays healthy and hits well) before his current contract is up, but other than that, I think he’s just about done. Griffey was great when he was here and I’m glad I was able to watch him all those years, but it just doesn’t make sense to take on his injuries or his contract, regardless of how many fond memories you or I might have of him in an M’s uniform.
In other news, remember how Ben Davis is supposedly being given a chance to win the starting job this spring? It’s not going well so far, as Bob Melvin has chosen to publicly rip him for his pitch-calling in Monday’s loss to Anaheim. “Maybe the pitch selection wasn’t good, with back-to-back changes when the guys were behind (on his fastball) the whole time. We have a guy behind the plate (Davis) who’s got to know that.”
Call me crazy, but I’ve never seen the good in this kind of thing. If Melvin has a problem with Davis, he should take it up with him in the clubhouse, not in the media.
To hit the PECOTA point briefly — the system goes through and finds comparable players through a number of factors and then comes up witha probability curve. PECOTA’s found a bunch of guys who collapsed at that point in their career and those guys, as a group, didn’t come back. It’s worth noting that the guys PECOTA found aren’t particularly good matches — the best one, Duke Snider, is decent, but as a whole it’s not particularly convincing. PECOTA notes this, but for what it does give us, it figures Griffey’s ready for someone to stick a fork in him.
To mention Snider, though — looking at that career fall apart is just plain ugly. At this Griffey point in Snider’s career, he played 85, 80, 129, and 91 games before he was out of baseball at the age of 37, and while he was productive when he was playing, he wasn’t the player he’d once been.
I wouldn’t take Griffey back unless the price was close to free. There’s definately an upside there, but at what cost? Right now it’s a bad substitute for the Omar trade: the team trying to bring back an expensive, damaged, ineffective, once-popular player who once had better days here in Seattle. This is the kind of move the team should absolutely not be making. We can only hope the doctors are able to stop the insanity again if it comes to that.