So, I’m finally settling back in a bit after a good weekend trip to D.C. Thanks to all the really cool readers who joined Peter and I for an afternoon of Mariner watching. The M’s are now 1-0 during U.S.S. Mariner/Mariner Musings gatherings. It is only a matter of time before Melvin becomes aware of this stat and asks us to help turn the season around by watching more games together.
Lots of talk in the papers this morning about Meche being optioned to Tacoma. Near as Derek, Jason, and I can figure, including conversations with folks who really should know, he’s out of options, no bones about it. The only way that we can see that he could be sent to Tacoma would be if he was outrighted off the 40 man roster and cleared waivers (as a first time designee, he wouldn’t have the option of refusing the assignment). Of course, MLB has so many abstract rules that not even they know, we’re probably wrong about this. But, from our understanding, they shouldn’t be able to option him to Tacoma without him first clearing waivers.
If Meche goes down and George Sherril doesn’t come up, well, he’d have every reason to go all Milton Bradley in Tacoma this afternoon.
Oh, and in case you haven’t thrown in the towel on 2004 yet, the M’s need to go 76-35 (.684 baseball) the rest of the way to win 95 games, which would probably get them in the playoffs. The Yankees have the best record in baseball right now at 31-19, which works out to a .620 winning percentage. So, for the rest of the year, the M’s would have to play significantly better than any other team in baseball has been able to play so far this year. Yea, that’s gonna happen…
Also, the M’s are on pace to lose 102 games this year. We’re a half game ahead of Tampa Bay and percentage points ahead of Kansas City for the worst record in the American League. On the bright side, since we’re almost certainly going to be picking in the top half of the first round next year, the M’s can’t forfeit that pick no matter how many lame free agents they sign.
Speaking of the draft, it’s next Monday, but you probably won’t even notice since the M’s don’t have a first or second round pick. Their first selection is #93 overall. I’m sure Howard Lincoln has to be pleased, however, that slot money for that pick is a little north of $400,000. So, the only way the M’s are going to add any real impact prospects in this draft will be overpaying for hard-to-sign types in the later rounds. Or by getting a bunch of great picks in the late rounds, but really, do we think this organization is capable of such a thing?
Last year, they overdrafted Adam Jones, who I still maintain will spend more time in the majors as a pitcher than as a shortstop, tossed a $700,000 bonus for the right to have Jeff Flaig rehab a torn labrum with the club for two years, and then spent three mid-round picks on senior signs that cost a combined $19,000 in signing bonuses.
2002 brought us such winners as the Mayberry/Esteve debacles, Josh Womack’s overdraft, a giant collection of HS arms who have been injured or ineffective, and the ridiculous Evel Bastida-Martinez selection (and subsequent huge bonus to a guy who just sucks).
2001 was the Michael Garciaparra draft, which everyone claimed was a terrible selection at the time, only made worse by the fact that they paid him $2 million to sign. Toss in Michael Wilson, Lazaro Abreu, Tim Merritt, John Cole, Justin Ockerman, and Jeff Ellena, and well, this was just one ugly, ugly draft. Right now, the entire crop has netted us Bobby Livingston and Rene Rivera, a pair of B- prospects with some pretty severe flaws in their games.
There is some hope, since Frank Mattox was inexplicably promoted after botching three consecutive drafts, and now Bob Fontaine is the man making the calls. But, in reality, it’s the same scouts, similar philosophies, and a team that doesn’t pick until most other teams have grabbed three players. Nothing like another missed opportunity to brighten the day on this sunny season.
New Unified Meche Theory
— [updated late Wednesday] —
Meche is drafted out of high school, so he has four years, not three, before he has to be protected on the 40-man roster.
1996, 1997, 1998, 1999….
1999
Meche is called up and put on the 40-man roster. He does not return to the minors. Not an option year.
2000
Meche splits time between the majors and minors. This is an option year, 1/3
2001
Meche is injured. This doesn’t count as an option year.
2002
Meche is injured and then goes down to San Antonio (where he stinks up the joint). It currently appears that he was on an optional assignment, for two reasons:
DL assignments are limited in length
Meche went on San Antonio’s DL when he was there, which can’t happen if he’s on a rehab assignment as far as I know.
However, some still disagree. This is option year 2/3.
2003
Meche is sent to Tacoma but only momentarily, and this doesn’t count as an option year.
If all of this is true, then 2004 now becomes Meche’s last available option year. If everything’s correct up until this point, that also means the assumption about 1999 not being an option year has to hold up.
Man, this is annoying to work out. However, it again proves our readers r00l d00dz! j00 0wnZ!
I’d like to announce that I lasted until just after Ibanez’s home run before I muted the television. Rizzs and Henderson… couldn’t the Mariners just send someone over to sing “Wind Beneath My Wings” over and over if they want to torture me?
Ibanez, by the way, is set to be the only Mariner who hits significantly better than Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections had him. PECOTA had Ibanez at .267/.332/.442 with 15 HR. We can be pretty sure he’ll do better than that, though — and this is going to sound petty, I know — overall his producitivy is probably going to work out to be about what PECOTA figured his 75% forecast was (though we’ll see… the season is long).
Fairly: “Isn’t it funny how things like that come back to haunt you?”
Niehaus: “Borders looking to tie it up here.”
Fairly: “Reminds me of when I killed that fan after a game in LA. I think about that every day. It was late and as I was leaving the stadium–”
Niehaus: “THAT BALL WILL DROP!”
Seriously, Nageotte comes in because Meche can’t throw strikes? Did the M’s just not pay attention to the fact that Nageotte can’t either? He had 25 walks, 2 HBP’s, and 6 wild pitches in 48 innings for Tacoma. There really isn’t any reason for Clint to be in the majors right now, and if they are thinking of putting him in the rotation full time, well, they’re fooling themselves.
Is there a player you want to beat you? I’m just saying.
So Ron Fairly and the broadcast crew have to be careful of what they say about Nageotte because they’re afraid the other team has the game on in the dugout and will use that information, as if the Blue Jays didn’t think to pull their scouting on him coming into this series, particularly since as trade bait they’ve scouted everyone in Tacoma most likely —
ahhh, Niehaus has torn into him for it. Fairly’s defense “Well, sure, but until you’ve seen it–”
Soooooooooooo your information isn’t valuable at all.
CLIIIIINNNNTTTTT
How long before the stadium music idiots play some Clint Eastwood-associated music (Good, Bad, Ugly with the whistling probably)?
Oh, hey, time to check in on some guys:
Greg Colbrunn, traded straight up for QMcC: injured and ineffective.
Ben Davis, in Tacoma, 56 at-bats… .214/.290/.268 and being out hit by Wiki Gonzalez. That’s got to be embarassing.
Oh, Halladay got scratched after he “experienced discomfort” in his throwing shoulder before the game.
“Anonymous Pissed Off M’s Fan” writes:
My case that Bob Melvin is ruining Gil Meche.
IP for Meche:
1999: 85
2000: 85
2001: none (injured)
2002: 65 (AA)
2003: 186
Looking at Meche’s pitch counts from 2003, even after the September call-ups, he pitched two >100 pitch games (106 and 115), two sub-50 pitch games (where he was getting hit hard)… and he also started another game just three days after one of his poor (45 pitch, 1 inning) outings, where he ended up throwing 86 pitches.
Considering they had potential long relievers like Brian Sweeney on the roster, this sounds like pitcher abuse by the manager to me
Meche has also reported feeling tired after bullpen sessions this year, and yet he’s *still* been asked to pitch >100 in 4 of his 9 previous games this year.
—
Thanks for the email, APOMF, whoever you may be.
Dave didn’t think Meche was ready last year, I’d hoped he was, but… man, wouldn’t it have been smart to treat the first guy to attempt to come back from a torn labrum with kid gloves? Severely limit his workload? Really play it safe?
Especially late last season, when Meche clearly started to run out of gas?