Gil Meche
I’m going to take advantage of our new fangled comments to start a discussion on Gil Meche. I was thinking about posting my thoughts, but I’ll hold off for now. I want to hear what you guys think. I really don’t have a good feel for the majority opinion on him.
Obviously, we’ve all been indoctrinated by the “Gil Meche has all-star stuff” doctrine, which I’m not sure I agree with, but most people have bought full force. It appears to me that most folks think his problems are almost all mental, and once he “learns how to pitch”, he’s going to be a frontline major league starter. The fear of letting him go seems very high.
So, what do you guys think? The M’s have to offer him arbitration in two months, meaning he’ll make a minimum of $1.9 million next year, and possibly more. Do you spend the $2 million to bring him back and hope he turns a corner next year, or use his stuff as trade bait and let someone else try to get him to live up to the hype?
Comments
73 Responses to “Gil Meche”
There’s a lot of good stuff from the contributors in the comments on the Meche thread from last night. I was a bit surprised at how resounding the support for Meche was, [...]
Why would he make a minimum of 1.9 mil? He’s 4-5 and was sent down to AAA Tacoma (as Rick Rizz says). Why can’t a player receive a pay cut these days?
Gil Meche has carved out for himself a nice little niche over the past few years. This consists mainly of pitching just well enough over small stretches to get our hopes up. Then, injury or inconsistency strikes, and we’re left wondering if he’ll ever tantalize us again. Chances are he’s going to continue this trend, rather than morphing into a top-tier pitcher. However, at 2mil next year, he’s a pretty good gamble, especially in what is shaping up to be a thinner-than-expected rotation. Given a choice between him and Villone, well, um, it’s not much of a choice. If Pineiro’s injury is more serious than everyone is letting on, Gil becomes a very important piece of the puzzle. It’s probably the best course to stick with him and a) hope he keeps the walks down and his era in the 3’s and then b) flip him to a pitcher-poor team when Kid K is ready and/or Blakely and Nageotte prove they can hack it in the big-leagues. Call it the Freddy Garcia plan, only easier on the payroll.
It seems to me that given the number of holes that the Mariners have to fill next season, that they’re going to have to take some chances and hope guys turn out better than their projected median (mean?) level of play. I generally think Meche’s ceiling is that of a top flight starter, and have ever since his initial appearances in the majors. All in all, I think Meche is a gamble the M’s have to take next year because they’re unlikely to find a better risk for the price.
$2 million for Meche is a bargain, considering Ryan Franklin makes 1.8.
Besides, Meche’s value, while it may be a little higher now, is still pretty low. I would highly doubt the M’s would get a player in return with the ceiling that Meche has.
I would think Carlos Guillen would have taught us the perils of selling low.
I bought into the hype. I thought that if Meche could put together an injury-free season, he’d put up great numbers. Last year and this year kinda proved me wrong on that. He’s not a terrible pitcher, and he’s a better option than Franklin or Villone, but I don’t see him improving to the levels I once thought I’d see him at. He’ll be overpriced next season, but I think the M’s should still keep him, as he’ll make a decent placeholder until some of the other guys show that they can last a season in the majors. And if he doesn’t cut it as a starting pitcher, they can always use him to fill-in at 3B, SS, LF and 1B. I’d much rather see Gil Meche out there than Willie Bloomquist.
Should Meche be in the rotation next year? Yes. He obviously has the “stuff” to be successful in this league. He was arguably our best pitcher in the first half of 2003. He could’ve been named to the All-Star team, and had 15 wins for the year.
Is 2 million worth and the chance at an All-Star type pitcher? Obviously.
I don’t even know how this is even in question. When Meche is throwing his two seamer and his changeup he has proven to be very tough.
I’m a Meche believer
To adam’s comment: many pitchers have the stuff to be successful. Clint’s got great stuff, for instance. If Meche has the stuff and hasn’t beeen successful, why? What’s kept him from dominating, and will that continue to keep him from the success it would seem he might enjoy?
Meche, if he can keep up his recent performance, should be an absolute lock in the rotation next year,
Piniero
FA
Moyer/Meche
Meche/Moyer
A 5th position to be “duked out” between Franklin, Nageotte, Madritsch, Thornton and Blackley. Most likely Madritsch, with Franklin taking over in long relief. But this is off the topic. He is posting a wonderful ERA since coming back, and I see no reason not to keep him around. 2 million is a relative bargain if he performs as he has since his recall.
Course, we could always trade him for Brandon Inge….
But that’s my basic question, David. Why do you believe Meche will continue to pitch like he has since being recalled? He didn’t pitch especially well in Tacoma, and his four starts since the promotion have come against Baltimore, Minnesota, a weakened Yankee lineup (Olerud, Cairo, Wilson, Flaherty bottom four, no A-Rod, Giambi, or Posada), and the Tigers. All the starts have come in pitchers parks (Camden once, Safeco twice, and Comerica), and well, he’s done this before. Several times. Why is this short good stretch more indicative of future success than the previous ones?
At this point, Meche’s potential value greatly outweighs his trade value…if the M’s were going to contend next year, I could understand not wanting to take a gamble on sticking him in the rotation…given the fact that they won’t, however, why not give him a whirl? Or, the M’s could, as suggested to me on a nightly basis by various brilliant callers to the postgame show, simply trade Meche for someone like, oh, I don’t know…Hank Blalock. Just ask Ron from Federal Way. The Rangers need a starter! We need a 3B! Match made in heaven! And while we’re at it, bring back Junior!
Dave,
I gotta go with gut feeling on this one. But gut feeling doesn’t always mean anything, and doesn’t cut it in baseball.
If I were the GM, I would give Gil one last year. One last chance to finally break out. If he is off and on like he has been, then we trade him when he is on.
Keep in mind that in Tacoma, he was working on his problems. Working on your problems in front of real people doesn’t always have good results. Tacoma was a correctional location for him. He was not there to throw shut out innings. The whole issue is very complicated. It is almost impossible to tell. Just like it was with Freddy. I am really not sure.
$2m is a reasonable price for Gil. Bravasi/Melvin combo will pay more for a worst pitcher, so stick to what you have.
Ultimately in 2005, do Mariners rebuild or reload? IMO, position players require most improvement. CF, 3B (ss).
One thing to keep in mind, in favor of Gil, is that we have not really seen anything from any of the Rookies BUT Madritsch suggesting that they are major league ready at the moment. Gil is at least sometimes Major League ready. We would likely not sign 2 FA pitchers, and Franklin is just a bad pitcher, period, who needs to be on a club with better defensive skills. And Ron Villone should not, under any circumstances, be starting.
The problem here is value. Is Meche the best option? Maybe, maybe not. He’s certainly a gamble. But if the M’s are able to trade him, what are they going to get? Brandon Inge? Some other marginal player with little upside? I’m sure there are many other teams than just San Diego or Detroit that would love to stick the M’s with their castoffs.
At Meche’s best, he’s a solid #3 starter. At worst, he’s a contributor out of the bullpen that makes for good trade bait at the deadline next year.
Next year will be another rebuilding one. No way the M’s contend with the amount of turnover they’ve seen. Give Meche another chance, and see if he can contribute to a run in 2006.
Sergey:
I agree completely. Our three goals over the year should be to:
A. Sign a free agent pitcher (NOT Derek Lowe)
B. Sign a Center Fielder or First Baseman (If we sign the first baseman, I would like to see Ibanez or Winn moved (preferably Ibanez) with Reed (if he gets a look in September) sliding into Center Field, otherwise Ibanez moves to first)
3. Acquire a 3rd Baseman. There really aren’t many good shortstops available, and Nomar is not going to come to the M’s. Lopez needs to be placed at short, lest we pull a Guillen on him, and move him to 3rd, and quote his lack of ability to his movement. Leone should not be regarded as the answer at 3rd, maybe as a backup, but surely not the starter. He did not demonstrate any “presence” to show that he is capable of being an everdyay player.
Another option concerning Meche would be to let him try setting up, or closing, filling Soriano’s role. He has the power in his fastball, and maybe if he pitched shorter stints, he would be less wild.
First, I agree with several others that he’d be worth 2 million next year. However, I would still see if I could trade him to a team that’s convinced that the recent performance is the norm. If I couldn’t get a player to fill a 2005 need, I probably wouldn’t do it. It isn’t like we have a bunch of guys ready to step into his spot in the rotation.
I saw today’s game, and while his defense gave up all three of the runs, he sure didn’t look like shutout pitcher.
His defense also saved his tail a couple times.
With Guardado a question mark for 2005 (the “resting while crossing your fingers” rehab. method may only be delaying the inevitable), and with Soriano out for the season, I wouldn’t mind the Mariners making Meche the closer. Many top-tier closers began their careers as starters, and with Meche’s stuff, I think if you told him to go out there and give it his all for one inning, he could become valuable in that role.
Here are Meche’s 3-year splits (‘01-’03) for the first inning in which he pitches: .200/.266/.339
Compare that to these 3-year splits:
Guardado: .207/.259/.339
Rivera: .217/.255/.286
Gagne: .206/.267/.346
Percival: .186/.273/.292
Wagner: .186/.254/.296
Hoffman: .224/.285/.352
Foulke: .202/.260/.307
Now, some may argue that Meche doesn’t have the mentality or the toughness that is perceived to be a requirement for closers, but I don’t believe in that anyway.
Meche would be a lot more valuable in a trade with the “proven closer” tag then with the “questionable starter” tag – especially at $2 mil.
Agreed, Conor. Also, it should be noted that a “closer mentality” comes with actually, well, CLOSING! So he would acquire the mentality. I do sincerely believe that Meche could be the next John Smoltz. Those stats reinforce my belief.
Assuming, hypothetically, that he keeps up the way he’s been going since his recall, then yes, I’d certainly favor bringing him back. I wouldn’t give him a three-year deal until he’d established himself for a whole season; but a couple million for his first arbitration year wouldn’t be misplaced, I don’t think.
The key point, in my view, is that at this point he appears to be a different pitcher than he’s ever been before. In that case, what happened to him in the first half is relevant only to the question of “what if he relapses?”
Of course, if he does show clear signs of relapsing, then we’d want to see the opportunities allocated elsewhere (although even then a 1-year deal for him would beat a 3-year for Villone… not that that’s saying much). The difficult question would be if he kind-of-sort-of started to lose his edge at the end of the season, but not so sharply that we were sure he was really losing it. At what point would we draw the line? I’d tend to say that an ERA over 5 (assuming peripherals consistent with it) from here on out would mean “no,” in the 4’s “maybe,” and below 4 “yes.”
I don’t know who that horrible imposter is who decided to be first in line, but there is onyl room for one Trent in this blogsphere. Heh.
I think going into the off-season, the M’s opinion of what to do with Meche will be similar to those who have left their comments so far, or 50/50. I’m sure they will dangle him as trade bait and see if they can’t get some talent for him, but if they are unhappy with the offers, will probably bring him back. Considering the other alternatives at this point for the back end of the 2005 rotation (Franklin, Villone), I wouldn’t be upset if he did stick around.
So I guess my answer would be dangle him and see what the possible trade possibilities are, and if they aren’t what you are looking for, keep him around.
Closer idea sounds good on paper, but if you think about it, if the M’s turned every pitcher who struggled into a closer, they would have a dozen closing prospects in the minors.
And I’m just kidding the other Trent, you can stick around. Or am I…..
Very good point, Trent, about the closing thing. Soriano is a converted starter, it looks like Thornton will be, and Nageotte will be. We could always trade away our many closers for a few starters, on a team with a deep starting rotation, but need a decent reliever bad. I realize that there are very few (if any) teams with this problem.
I welcome all named Trent. Not a common name and yet we have a common interest. Keep posting.
The problem trading the “closers” is that they really aren’t closers, but starting pitchers who have been placed into a bullpen role. Teams are going to be unwilling to trade decent starting pitchers, whether they are in the ML or minors, for a bullpen arm with no closing experience.
Ditto Trent.
LOL
Very true. I think that:
Nageottes future will still be in the rotation
Thornton will be a very good setup guy one day
Madritsch willb e in the rotation
Blackley is a starter one day
Meche could be a good swing man (a la Ron Villone). This lowers his value though, unless he is good at it, but if he were good at swinging, he would likely be placed in one role, and not be a swing man. This is also a huge waste of his talent, making me wonder why I even brought this up.
OK, my final plan regarding Meche:
Give him one more year to work out his problems in the rotation, and prove his consistency. At 2m a year, give him a 2 year contract. If he is off and on, we try to trade him when he is “on” at the deadline for a decent prospect. If all else fails, we move him to the bullpen, and let him become the closer. If he proves to be lights out as a closer, we trade Guardado for whatever we can get.
If Matt Thornton ever becomes a very good setup man, I’ll eat a hat. Or something. The fascination with him is bizarre. Take mediocre stuff, mix terrible command, add a strong history of injuries, throw it all in a blender, and you have one of a thousand minor league pitchers floating around. Thornton is waiver bait.
I’ll weigh in on my thoughts on Meche tomorrow. I’m actually surprised how positive the reactions seem to be.
But he THROWS HARD!
You’ve got a point, Dave. Scratch that.
I don’t think Gil Meche has had the major league time as a power pitcher to be giving up on him. For his first two half seasons in Seattle, he barely threw 90, and often threw in the mid-80s as he managed to struggle through 5 innings with a frayed labrum.
In his time back he has had to shake off the rust of missing two seasons, contend with morons who think a young arm just off of surgery should be pushing 200 innings, and re-adjust his approach from a finesse pitcher to a power pitcher.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all to find that he is injured again next year, or that he is unable to gain command of his stuff now that he throws mid-90s instead of mid-80s, but, at $2M or so, it’s a chance the M’s should be taking…as long as nobody is willing to trade their farm for him, anyway.
Actually, wait. I am going to pull a John Kerry here. Matt Thornton WILL be a very good setup man, Dave.
He throws hard, he has decent command through about 1 inning, then it goes to hell. He did get eaten up the other day, but his appearance before that was good. (I sound a lot like I am talking about Willie, right? “He sucks, but he went 3 For 3 today!”). Seriously though, Thornton WILL be a very good setup man! Mark my words!
At $2 mil Meche is worth the gamble. He seems to have found his control, and you can see the results when he does. You can’t teach a 95mph fastball, you can teach a new pitch. Considering the success the Rainiers are having even with their best players getting moved up, I’ve got to wonder if we need to look to Tacoma for a Manager and coaches.
Agreed Mike. The fact that the once highly heralded pitching staff now includes such guys as Pulsipher, Runion, Ward, and Hoerman, and Mike Collins is their shortstop, you have to assumet hat their coaching staff must be pretty darned good. It would also be nice to get Chaves up here, as he knows the young pitchers real well, and Lopez can have his translator back…
16 men on Tacoma’s 25 man roster (if I counted right) were not there on opening day. In contrast, only 10 men from Seattle’s opening day roster are gone. So Tacoma has had HUGE turnover.
11. Sorry.
Oh, man. Now you guys have done it….
Returning to the subject of Meche: I was on the fence until today when he pitched thru that complete defensive melt-down and stayed un-phased. I think he has mentally turned the corner with a team this year where it was definitely hard to rise above mediocre.
First he wnt down to Tacoma with maturity, and now this. I’ll be surprised if he hasn’t (finally) turned the corner.
I was at the Braves/Mariners game last year when Gil (and Ichiro) beat Greg Maddux 2-1. You can’t give up on a guy with that kind of an arm. I for one would be intrigued if the Mariners went into 2005 with a starting rotation of Meche, Pineiro, Madritsch,and Hernandez. I have not seen Felix pitch but from all I have heard he has the ability to get big league hitters out. If he is mature enough to handle being in the big leagues, I would like to see him in Seattle.
If BP and/or Melvin keep running Meche out there for 125 pitches like they did against the Yankees a week or so ago, we won’t have to worry about this since he’ll just get hurt again. Sigh.
Meche. He’s been an enigma for a while now for them. However, with Soriano set to miss all next year and Guardado seemingly avoiding the inevitable, Mr. Meche may find a nice niche for himself at the badck end of the bullpen next year should he falter as a starter. $2 million isn’t a ton (although I’m adamantly against the M’s past payroll-wasting practices), but it’s a medium risk/high reward possibility that could pan out.
Bring him back. They’ve made worse moves…
I think pitch counts are used incorrectly throughout most of the major leagues today. What should be more important is how the pitcher is actually throwing. Has his velocity decreased? Control? Those should be the warning signs that a pitcher needs to be replaced, not an arbitrary number.
I think I remember reading recently that the Braves, during their 90’s run, never put any emphasis on pitch counts. Rather, they watched for more visible signs like the things I mentioned above.
I was also at the Meche vs. Maddux game and it’s hard to deny what I saw there. With our pitching situation up in the air due to the injuries to Soriano and Guardado, not to mention the sifting process we’re going through with the rookies, I think that it’s important to keep Meche around at least for another year. At worst, he’s servicable with a frustrating amount of potential, which is more than you can say for a lot of guys we could replace him with. Money is best spent elsewhere (hitting).
Dave, you have bashed meche since the day one. My major concern is Meche will not be able to stay healthy in the long run. Other than that, I don’t get it what makes you dislike the kid so much? Who else in the AAA is at the same level now as Meche now and can pitch the 5th spot next year? I will pay 2 million dollars for Meche any day. Nageotte? No thank you. Or the pouty Blackley?
I like Meche a lot but worry that he has “worked to hard”. I would sign him for sure as he has a high value for us and as a trade chip. I would however be more carefull with him in regards to overuse. He looks good lately.
Just the fact that the M’s are talking about resigning Villone is enough for me to think that we should keep him. Especially considering his value isn’t as high right now as it could be during say, next July’s trade deadline. Its obvious he fixed his problem.
If you could find any pitcher at 2 millions and can be healthy and consistent at all time, and have as good stuff as meche, then yeah go for it. I like what I have seen since his recall. He showed that he did not waste time in Tacoma. For a 25 years old, I take him any day. Trade him for who? Who do we have in the farm system? If we want to spend money improving offense, Meche is cheap no 4 or 5. Why would we be that stupid to trade him away for what? more prospects?
Call me naive, call me a sucker, heck, call me a Bill’s poisonous Kool-Aid drinker, I don’t care. We have to keep Gil Meche. Since coming back from Tacoma he’s yielded 12 runs (including 5 HR’s!) in 27 IP’s. Not too good, especially the perceptibility to the long ball.
On the other hand, he’s also K’d 23 versus only 3 walks. Before being sent down he had K’d 41 and walked 29 in 43.1 innings. Basically, since the demotion, his strike outs have dropped marginally while his walks have fallen off the map.
If we accept the premises that he has great stuff (as we all do), and that it’s in his head (as some of us do), then it looks like he may be figuring it out. 3 BB’s in 27 innings is nice for any pitcher.
Bottom line, Gil Meche is 25 years old, has a great arm and is showing the potential to be great. He’s frustrated us for the past 14 months, but didn’t Freddy Garcia do that for a long stretch too? I’d wager $2 million that Gil really has “found it” and will be a solid #3 starter or better for a lot of years to come.
$2 million is essentially what we’ll be stuck paying Ron Villone next year unless Bavasi suddenly comes to his senses. I like Gil about 2 million times more than Villone. Seems like a no brainer to me.
Oh, by the way, Thornton sucks. I’m with you on that one Dave.
I think the biggest question isn’t Meche at $2 mil next year, but what is the Outfield going to look like? Going back to other page where we are reminded of Cameron’s defensive prowess, is Reed the answer in Center? Does Ichiro move over? Has Winn improved enough over the year to stay there? With a big park like Safeco, you have to have an outfield that can track anything down, you also have to have corner infielders that can mash the ball. We need Glaus!
I really like Meche as a #2 or #3 starter. I never expected him to be an ace. So, I like what I have seen so far. In terms of what happened this year, I think it is simple. He has tried too hard to “go to the next level.” If he stays within himself he is going to be solid. I would try to lock him up for a three year deal for 2.5m a year. If he doesn’t pan out, big deal. Meche is going to be OK. I think the larger concerns are 3rd and getting that Number One starter in here. Hmmm, maybe if we had a true number one that could spur the pitching into having better years.
Pineiro’s elbow makes me very nervous, and tells me we have to take a chance on Meche. Not to mention the lack of promise shown by all of the Tacoma guys except Madritsch. Though I still have hopes for Blackley.
Mike- Glaus can mash the ball, but can he stay healthy? That is the question.
Sign Glaus as a regular and Leone as a backup at 3B. $300, 000 only for Leone.
I’m just not a believer in Glaus…2 injured seasons in a row. He is Griffey, 3rd Base version. I am not a believer in Leone either, although I am not quite sure WHO to put at 3rd…. Mike Lowell maybe? I would love to work out a trade with Houston for Morgan Ensberg….hmmm….
Gil Meche for Morgan Ensberg. I’d do that. Houston could use a decent starter with a he ll of a lot of talent…. (Although I’d still rather hang on to). Houston may not do this though….
I think Meche has done enough lately to justify a 1 yr deal at 1.8 to 2 mil. If he proves he can be consistent all year next year, offer a 3 yr deal. If he still struggles next year, try him out in the pen.
I agree with the folks who believe Meche has shown enough to warrant $1.9 million (who knows, maybe a little less) in arbitration. He’s 25, has a great arm that hasn’t been destroyed despite the team’s best efforts and, most importantly, has some history of success. You don’t run a guy like that out of town because of what you FEAR he might not be able to do. You keep running him out there till he runs himself out of town.
He’s a gamble, and I’ll cheerfully admit I’m wrong if he starts next year 0-4 with an 11.80 ERA. But there’s a reasonable chance that he’ll have a 3.45 ERA in his first six starts with a 3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Whereas there is NO reasonable chance of anything close to that with Matt Thornton (there are a million Thorntons out there, guys with good stuff who never got a handle on it, and he’s not likely to suddenly learn how to pitch now that he’s almost 28).
Meche might be a Jamie Moyer, a guy who need to flunk a few trials before finding himself. Or he might be Brad Havens, a guy who had spectacular breaking stuff and always seemed to pitch well while getting his brains beaten out over an agonizing decade of auditions. Time will tell … and it hasn’t yet. That’s what we need 2005 to show us.
By the way, I love this new site, and the new comment feature. The discourse here is about 15 times superior to the inarticulate, often-divergent blather that dominates the P-I Mariner blog. (Sorry, Mike Thompson, I know this happens despite your best efforts but it’s true.) Congratulations to Dave, Jason and especially Derek for their hard work on our behalf.
In post 10, Dave voiced his skepticism about our young Louisianan, and listed a few ballparks he considered “pitchers’ parks.” He listed Camden Yards as one of them…
Is it just me, or is that one of the most ludicrous things you’ve ever heard. As far as I know, Camden yards is a bandbox, easily one of the best places to hit in all of baseball. Left field, right field, center field, both alleys – all short porches.
Some of Meche’s recent success could be linked to outings at the Safe and at Comerica, but Camden is no pitchers’ paradise.
For my part, the difference with him is that he’s stopped trying to be a finesse pitcher, hitting the corners, etc. He’s throwing the ball hard, over the plate, and keeping the hitters off-balance with his nasty(!) curve, and sometimes-effective change.
It’s got nothing to do with ballparks…he’s just pitching the way he did the first half of last year, in which he pitched in AL parks, both big and small – he’s pitching aggressively.
If he continues to forget about the corners and just throw his 96-er over the dang plate, he will continue to be very successful throughout his career.
And yes, he is a bargain at $2 million. The Mariners should jump on retaining him for that price, and add one top-notch starter this offseason. A rotation of
Pineiro
Moyer (pitching without inspiration in a lost season – he’ll be back)
Pavano
Meche
Madritsch
sounds great to me. Move Franklin back to long relief, or package him for a top-notch closer/set-up guy like Braden Looper. We’d be set.
I agree Jim. Let’s all make a deal: NO ONE TELL THE P-I BLOGGERS ABOUT THIS!!! Leave them to their insanity…
An aside inspired by the discussion of Gil Meche. As the Mariners have called up pitchers from Tacoma, it is the players in their mid to late twenties that have performed or at least indicated that they may have a present, not just a potential future, in the majors. The one clear exception being Matt Thornton who I think clearly demonstrates the distinction between those players who have succeeded and those who have not — command. Nageotte, Blackley, and Thornton have walked HUGE numbers of hitters. Madritsch, Sherrill, and Atchison are all around 3 walks per game, while Nageotte, Blackley, and Thornton in aggregate have walked 7.6 per game. I think if Meche can stay under 4 walks per game — worse than his August performance, but better than his historical performance — he will be a valuable member of the team. I think the issue comes down to projecting the likelihood of that occurring, and this holds for all of the Mariners’ pitching prospects. I just don’t know what the odds for gaining command are? For every Randy Johnson and Dazzy Vance, how many Kelvim Escobar and Kazuhisa Ishii do you get? Command is clearly a talent, not just a learned skill, so whether these pitchers become quality major leaguers is as much a matter of if as when.
The whole belief system of Camden Yards being a hitters paradise is a myth completely unsubstantiated by facts. The last three years, Camden has posted park factors of 965, 959, and 959, with 1000 being league average. That means Camden has consistently supressed run scoring by about four percent. The park factors for Safeco the past three years are 961, 942, and 949. Safeco supresses run scoring by about one percent more than Camden, but both are clearly pitchers parks.
Just looking objectively at Gil from the pitching coach perspective, what skill does he not possess? He has shown he has it all, just go look at the tape from a 2003 when he wasn’t giving ANY runs at all.
He had Maddux type control. So in my mind command isn’t a weakness for the most part(although for whatever reason his mechanics fall back into a pattern and he seems to lose his command TOTALLY at any juncture. Ala Freddy Garcia)
He has the fastball, the curveball, the changeup, and alot of times the control.
And if nothing else, bring him out of the bullpen and have him close. If you let him throw all out for one inning I think we have our next closer, the guy hits 95+ sometimes. This will help reduce the strain on that shoulder.
Pitchers can take a long time to figure things out. And he still won 15 games last year. I mean look at Greg Maddux’s first full season, 6-14 with a 5.61 era. Meche, who alot of people want to just throw away, was 15-13 with a 4.59 era in his first full season.
I’m just saying, he’s worth the chance.
Dave,
Could your stats that point to Camden as being a pitchers park be skewed by weak O’s teams the past couple of years? This is just so contrary to the commonly held belief that it is a small, homerun-friendly park.
A lot of people seem to be ignoring that Meche has had two major shoulder surgeries in the past 3 years. I don’t think there is a single pitcher that has ever come back to be successful in the long-term from such injuries / surgeries. So, yeah, it’s a gamble whether Meche is going to be good going forward. But the real gamble is whether he’s going to be healthy, and the way the Ms have been treating him, I’d bet against it. I give him a 50% chance of surviving next year at all…
Bottom line… my gut says take the risk, if it’s just 2 years, and it’s just $2M/year, but only do it if (a) he finishes the rest of this season strong; and (b) you’re willing to commit to letting him be a 180 inning/year guy until those injuries are way way back in the rear-view mirror.
Mark,
No, they can’t, because park factors include the numbers of the visiting team as well and are calculated by the difference in performance between both teams in a particular park and in other parks. The formula works, and the commonly accepted “wisdom” that Camden Yards is a hitters park is a fallacy. There’s a lot more that goes into a park effect on run scoring than distance to the fences. It’s pretty remarkable that Camden has gotten the reputation that it has in the face of obvious evidence to the contrary.
Dave’s right about Camden, and about the park factors. Here’s the real question though Dave: As I implied above, Gil’s improvement since being recalled is almost directly atributable to his (vastly) improved K/BB ratio. Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t K/BB ratio tend to translate well into just about any park, pitcher’s park or not?
Troy,
Actually, some parks have shown a consistent trend towards decreasing or increasing walks and strikeouts. No one has any real good idea why, though, and the effect isn’t going to be major in any sample of four starts. The comment about Meche’s recent success being in four pitchers parks was more off-handed than anything else. I wasn’t trying to imply that he hasn’t pitched well, but simply pointing out that he’s done it in some pretty friendly environments.
Weird. I never knew that. I mean, I guess I can understand Coors lessening K’s (since breaking balls don’t break as much), or something like a bad hitter’s backdrop increasing K’s, I just never knew there was evidence that really played out. Do you know which parks seem to play more towards K’s or BB’s?
Kelly, I have to disagree with you on command as a talent, especially with your reference to RJ. Randy was as wild as they come until he sat down with Nolan Ryan and learned how to PITCH, not just throw. Command has everything to do with mental make up, preperation, and mechanics. Those are things a quality pitching coach can drive home with most any pitcher. Case in point, Leo Mazzonie(sp?) look at what he has done with pitchers year after year. This year’s prize, Jaret Wright. ERA 3.17, 3.84 BB’s/9 7.57 K’s/9 12-6 record in 25 starts. By far his best stats of his career. He’s always had the golden arm, but no one ever taught him how to pitch. What do you think he could do with Meche? Most pitchers early in their careers get by on talent if they have the stuff to do it. Pitchers who succeed over a long period of time actually learn how pitch. Randy doesn’t reach back and throw 98-99 on every pitch anymore. He picks his spots, throws with control and keeps the hitters off balance. Ultimately the main job of any pitcher is to keep the hitters off-balance. Moyer & Maddux know that better than anyone. Maddux said in an old interview recently re-aired on FSNW that of all the components to pitching he valued shear velocity the least. Hitting spots, changing speeds and above all else late movement on his pitches were valued higher. Garcia was having much of his success earlier this year because he figured out if he took something off his fastball he got better movement. These are all learned traits, that a top flight pitching coach will teach. I have to wonder if we’ve given too much credit to BP when it was out outfield defense making guys like Franklin look good. If Meche was fixed in Tacoma maybe we need to look there again for a pitching coach. We still need to fix the outfield defense for Safeco.
Isn’t Camden playing as a hitter’s park this year? Something like fifth or sixth in Park Effects?
I’m just not ready to fold on Gil – another couple million to stay in the hand sounds okay. Besides, I think they’re going to have a hard time giving away money to free agents this time around. They may find it difficult to spend their (mostly mythical) $95 million budget.
i almost hate that it comes down to this for me, but i just LIKE gil meche. i always have, and on a team full of unlikable players…(spiezio, villone, winn, bloomquist, SPIEZIO) that has to count for something, right?
Mike, Some pitchers learn how to pitch, some do not. The point I wish to make is that not everyone will ‘learn’ how to pitch and I doubt that it can all be attributed to mental make-up and coaching. We appear to differ as to the extent to which coaching, experience, and talent determine the ability to pitch with command, but I certainly don’t know how it all breaks down.
Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson are an interesting case. While Nolan Ryan helped Randy Johnson make a breakthrough, whether Nolan Ryan ever learned how to pitch can be questioned. That Randy Johnson did learn how to pitch explains why Randy at his best has been a much more successful pitcher than Nolan Ryan. So why didn’t Nolan ever learn how to take a little off his fastball? Was he too stubborn work on it, or just not able to master the skill?
The first few years of his career it looked as if Nolan Ryan would never master his pitches; half-way through his career he seemed destined to be labeled a mediocre pitcher with a great fastball; the last ten years of his career he achieved immortality. Throwing no-hitters as a young fire baller and as a veteran pitcher, Ryan shattered the career strikeout record once held by Walter Johnson.