Carlos Delgado

Dave · August 23, 2004 at 4:19 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

One thing that amazes me when I talk to folks about the upcoming offseason is that there are still so many people who want the Mariners to pursue Carlos Delgado. Frankly, to me, he’s one of those players with enough red flags to attract half of Spain. I can’t imagine any realistic scenario where I’d offer Delgado a multi-year contract, especially not at the money he’s going to ask for. A quick 2004 comparison.



League Average 1B




Delgado is a lot closer to B than C this year.

First baseman with knee problems do not age well. Delgado is already showing signs of decline and health issues, and at age 32, it’s more likely that this decline is the beginning of the end than an aberration that he’ll recover from. Even before this season, the prospects of signing Delgado to a multi-year contract and having it work out looked dim. BP’s PECOTA system projected Delgado to tail off significantly starting this year. He has been worth about 6 wins above replacement each of the past three years and was coming off a career best season, and PECOTA still pegged him as likely to produce just 4.7 wins over replacement this year, 3.6 next year, 2.8 in 2006, 2.1 in 2007, and 1.6 in 2008. Based on that projection, before his poor season and injury are factored in, you don’t want to be paying more than about $7 million to Delgado next year, $5.5 million in 2006, and $4.5 million in 2007. You probably don’t want to be signed up for his 2008 season at any price. And the projection after factoring in his poor 2004 season is going to be significantly more negative. Anyone think Carlos is going to sign a 3 year, $18 million contract with decreasing salaries this offseason? Me either.

Certainly, I don’t expect Delgado to hit .240 for the rest of his career, but I can’t imagine any scenario where I’d rather be paying Delgado $10 million per year than Bucky $300,000. Delgado and Magglio Ordonez (with his chronic serious knee issues) are two big name free agents that the Mariners need to run far, far away from.


61 Responses to “Carlos Delgado”

  1. Ralph Malph on August 24th, 2004 3:55 pm

    Paul, ya gotta take risks to win.

  2. Troy Sowden on August 24th, 2004 3:57 pm

    Beltre is exactly the type of risk we need to take. He’s young, just coming into his prime, dominant in a hitters park, and has always been loved by the scouts – there just don’t seem to be many red flags here. Sure it’s just one year, but it’s about trustworthy of a year as you can find.

  3. Pete on August 24th, 2004 4:07 pm

    Exactomundo Paul. They’re basically missing the upper-middle of the batting order – 3-hole and clean-up. That’s such a huge gap to fill in free agency. That’s basically the two best players on the team.

    By the way…how much easier, nay, less intimidating, would this whole re-tooling process look if we simply hadn’t gotten rid of our shortstop? ? Good lord. That is easily the worst trade since Lowe and Varitek for Slocumb…

    We could have just plugged in Lopez at 3B for a couple years…or moved Carlos there. And Winn would then become expendable, as Carlos would slide perfectly into his 2-hole in the batting order.

    Woe is me. Woe is the Mariners. Come back Carlos.

  4. PositivePaul on August 24th, 2004 4:11 pm

    Yes, you do have to take serious risks to win. However, I’d MUCH rather take a 5-year $70 million risk for Vladie than a 5-year even $60 million risk for Beltre. I’d only risk shelling out a long, big contract to a cornerstone guy who can carry a team. I don’t have that much confidence in Beltre as becoming a cornerstone player that can carry a team. Sure, he’s a good player, and is coming off of an MVP offensive season in a — pitcher’s — park (I know what you meant, Troy), but I’m not sure how much that performance has been “enhanced” by the fact that it’s a contract year for him, especially as a Boras client. I’d MUCH prefer to pay a more-proven Beltran that kind of dough over Beltre, even though I see Beltran as at least a big step below Vladie’s 5-year $70 million status.

  5. Troy Sowden on August 24th, 2004 4:20 pm

    I really should read my posts before entering them huh. Thanks for over-looking my slip, Paul.

  6. David J Corcoran on August 24th, 2004 4:33 pm

    Here is my proposal for next years team:

    Here is my lineup

    RF Ichiro
    LF Winn
    3B Lowell
    DH Bucky
    2B Boone
    1B Tino Martinez
    SS Lopez
    C Olivo
    CF Reed

    UTL Spiezio (as much as I would like to move him, who is going to take him? Honestly. But he can play 1st, 2nd, and the OF)
    OF Bocachica
    INF Easley
    C Wilson
    INF Leone


    FA Righty

    We DECLINE CABRERA’S OPTION. At 1.5 million a year there is a lot better stuff we can get than a Utility player that hits an empty .280. Easley can do this for a half million, and hit a few more homers.

    Cabrera is a singles hitting guy who stinks in clutch situations and strikes out a lot. He is highly overrated by this organization. He had a good June, but if you take away those numbers, he is only hitting about .250. Let me see if I can get those. Hold on.

    We trade Ibanez, Putz, Bloomquist, and cash to offset Ibanez’s salary to Florida for Mike Lowell and Damion Easley.

    That trade is the tricky part. Does Florida want a Left Fielder with a big contract, an over hyped “setup man” and a waaaaaaaaay overhyped utility player (that can be their UTL for years to come?) even if we throw in a butt load of cash?

    Tino Martinez is on the wrong side of thirty, but he is a proven player that can still hit some out of the park. He would come cheap, and probably to a 1 year deal (which is all I’d want him for). Plus, I see no reason for Tampa Bay to pick up his option next year.

  7. David J Corcoran on August 24th, 2004 4:34 pm

    With the exception of June, Cabrera is hitting:

    2 HRs

    21 RBIs

    He is just not a good player.

    Also, even if you include June, he has 47 strikeouts to 10 walks.

    He strikes out 4.7 times as much as he walks.

  8. Ralph Malph on August 24th, 2004 5:09 pm

    I agree completely on Cabrera. Paying him $1.5 million would be preposterous. Yes, he’s better than Bloomquist, but who isn’t? The difference between the 2 is small enough that I’d sooner have Bloomie at $300K, and use the extra million on somebody good.

    Of course I’d rather have neither.

  9. Dave S. on August 24th, 2004 5:34 pm

    He’s not even at AAA yet. That’s exactly the point. If he’s no better than a fourth outfielder right now, he’s better off in the minor leagues. Jamal Strong is a better candidate for 4th OF at this point, IF he can stay healthy.

  10. Pete on August 25th, 2004 4:03 pm

    David C-

    Your proposed line-up has only three left-handed hitters, Ichiro and Reed, one of which doesn’t have power, one of which hasn’t even played in a major league game, and the other of which is on his last legs in the bigs….

    Not sure that spells success. You need some serious left-handed pop in that line-up. Preferably, the M’s will have at least five lefties in the line-up next year. Righties should include Olivo, Boone, Lopez, maybe Bucky…the rest of the line-up should be filled with lefties, or include at least a couple swich-hitters.

    Your line-up, aside from the aged Tino, is completely devoid of the much-needed lefty pop that is so successful at the Safe.

  11. eponymous coward on August 25th, 2004 7:54 pm

    Well, Blowers and Glasgow pimp hard for Delgado on the postgame show, and seeing as they ARE Mariner employees…yeah, 3 years at 28 million or so sounds like the typical Mariner “hey, we’re trying hard and what’s this sabre-whatrics thing?” contract they’d extend to a 32 year old hitting his decline phase (see: almost every FA signing outside of Ichiro and Boone).

    And then around May 2006 we can hear Glasgow and Blowers on the postgame show talk about how Delgado’s a disappointment they didn’t see coming…

    Sorry to be so negative, but realistically, Mariner management is guilty until proven innocent. Fontaine’s helping out on the talent evaluation side (I suspect he was the driving force behind the Reed deal because of his tenure in the Sox organization) and drafting, and at least we’ve dumped some of the ballast, but I’m unconvinced that Bavasi et al have learned enough. If I see them signing Beltran and Beltre this offseason (the guys on the RIGHT side of 30), and figuring out how to turn a boatload of underpowered corner OF’ers (Winn, Ibanez, Reed, Snelling, Strong, Choo) into something that fills holes in the organization, THEN I’ll reconsider.