Beltre
The Los Angles Daily News has a story about the Dodgers desire to re-sign Adrian Beltre today. It will be interesting to see if new owner-by-loan Frank McCourt can scrounge up the money that Beltre wants.
At this point, I’d say Beltre has passed Carlos Beltran as the most desirable free agent this offseason. He’s actually getting better as the season goes along. 25-year-olds who play gold glove defense and hit .335/.383/.647 in a pitcher’s park don’t hit free agency very often.
I can tell you with certainty that Beltre was at the top of the Mariners offseason shopping list two months ago. He may just be pricing himself out of the reasonable contract market, though. How high do you go for a guy with one good season in his career, regardless of how good that season is? Can you throw $80 million at him and pray that this isn’t a fluke?
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61 Responses to “Beltre”
The boys at the USS Mariner (now with commenting goodness!) had this to say:
I can tell you with certainty that Beltre was at the top of the Mariners off [...]
Heck, why not? What in the world do we have to lose? If it works out, we have a cornerstone to our franchise for several years…If not, to quote the scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz, “We’re no worse off than we are now!”
Look, this rebuilding process is going to be more difficult than most people think. It’s going to be even more difficult without one or two superstar-types. That’s essentially how rebuilding works. Excitement is created by a terrific player, fans come, allowing more players to be signed…. How did the M’s reach there peak in the first place? Ken Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson, Edgar, A-Rod. They all left, sure, but there was at least some sustained success.
If Beltre seems to be the number one guy going, why not go for it? He’s 25-years-old. The point is, they have to take a gamble sooner or later… Why not sooner?
…Or is it actually “later” by now…
Beltre is an interesting topic. Does anyone have a list of people in the last 10-12 years who have had career years while in their 20s (to that point) who were in their free agent year? I’d be interested to see how many people there were in these two categories and what they did to follow up the career seasons after inking a nice new contract.
Beltre for 6 years, $80 mil; Delgado (everything points to the M’s interest, despite a pessimistic fan-base, so we may end up with him) at 3 years, $27 mil. Plug ‘em in at #3 and #4 in the line-up…. Even if they under-perform their career years, at least we tried, and we have a better-balanced line-up, allowing some of our already under-performing veterans some better protection, and a less pressure position in the line-up…
Ichiro RF
Winn CF
Beltre 3B
Delgado 1B
Bucky DH
Boone 2B
Ibanez LF
Olivo C
Lopez SS
Now if we could only figure out how to improve the outfield defense cheaply…
It’s hard to call this season a fluke when it is a 25 year old with significant major league experience. In order to judge his value, I would say we should look at our own fluke – Brett Boone, and adjust for age. Boone was an average player, then had a fluke year, then went on to perform somewhere imbetween his median season and fluke year.
My best guess for Beltre’s performance would be to take his average performance the last 3 years (about 584 PAs per year):
.254/.300/.421
and average it with this year’s so far (507 PAs so far):
.335/.383/.647
I would guess that for the next 5-7 years he will perform at:
.291/.339/.526
For a 3b, that’s really not bad – certainly an upgrade over willie bloomquist.
Now, how much is that worth? Boone was worth $8mil a year for what? 3 years and he was in his 30s.
I’d say if we could get Beltre for 8-10 a year, 7 year deal – it’s a good shot. Beyond that it’s too risky.
I think his youth could make it worth it. He still hasn’t reached his “prime years” yet.
Pete:
Cheap outfield defense improvement:
Move Ibanez or Winn (whichever you can get more for)and put in Reed at Centerfield. Not a big upgrade, but it is an upgrade for only $300K
The Dodgers fans that I know don’t think they have a shot at Beltre, he’s just priced himself out of the Dodgers owners cheque-book!
As for is, its possible! I don’t think it’s probable, from previous history with big name free agents! We have the spare payroll, it’s just a matter of pulling it off!
I hope we do get him, and stay away from Glaus! He hasn’t been able to stay healthy for the last two years, and comming off virtually, a year out! Too much risk, not enough reward for me!
The chances of Beltre going for less than $12 mil/year are low. The dodgers want to keep him, boras is his agent so there will be a bidding war, etc etc. He and Beltran will get the big money contracts this offseason; that’s just how it is.
I think you can throw a lot of money (maybe not $80m, besides, the M’s would never do that) at Beltre because he is so young.
Although only time will tell I don’t think this is a fluke year. I’m leaning more toward it being development. Beltre came up when he was what, 19? Although Dodger fans have always complained that he wasn’t living up to his potential he’s had other issues on top of being young and being asked to develop and learn in the bigs, not the minors. In ’01 he had appendix surgery that got infected and affected his entire season.
Watching Beltre this year (I’m a Dodger season ticket holder) he looks much more confident in the batter’s box, is much more patient and he’s so strong at defense it is amazing. I can’t tell you how many times he’s barehanded that dribbling bunt down the line and made that off balanced throw look easy. (I know that’s not indicative of his defensive prowess alone, but I’ll leave it up to the rest of you to look up his numbers.)
Every scout that’s been watching Beltre for a while has talked about this type of production potential, so I think he’s just finally getting there. He’s the type you can rebuild around I think and would be a great pickup for the M’s right now. I agree though that he may be pricing himself out of the Mariners market. Especially since he is a Boras client. Oh well…
David…
Good suggestion, but how do we know that Reed is an upgrade over Winn? Is he a real speedy dude? I think I heard he has a good arm…
But really, you need incredible range to play center at the Safe. How do you know a rookie could step in and do better?
(By the way, I’m not saying I like Winn in center…I almost cried when we started the season with him out there). It’s just that I haven’t read enough about Reed to be sure that he can hold down center so easily.
Any links for me?
I agree Giuseppe.
I’m tooting Beltre’s horn, and saying he’s probably worth the risk. However, I don’t think there’s any way Lincoln, Bavasi, et al will be able to stomach shelling out the bucks he’ll command.
But maybe Lincoln really has realized his mis-management, and is willing to over-compensate…who knows?
I doubt it though.
Dave has said peviously that from watching Reed in the minors extensively that he doesn’t think he could be a centerfielder.
“Defensively, he’s a corner outfielder. The M’s might dream that he can fill the need in center, but he just doesn’t have the range to be an asset there. He can play right or left well, and center in an emergency, but they should still be searching for a permanent CF.”
Paul Weaver,
You may be right, but I would guess that if he stays healthy he will continue at a higher level than you guess. I agree this is likely a career year, but I wouldn’t characterize it as a fluke because, as I mentioned above, he was developing and fighting injury/illness in those early years.
I hope Lincoln realizes his mismanagement as well, Pete. I’m not optimistic, but I agree with Dave that Beltre is outpacing Beltran at this point. He has so much upside I hope the M’s make a big move with him. He is exactly what the M’s should be looking for. They do have to take a gamble eventually to rebuild and it isn’t often that a player like Beltre comes along like Dave said.
Let’s hope they take the Beltre dive.
What the heck is wrong with Ichiro in CF and Reed in RF?
I’m not convinced about Reed in CF. I still think our best OF would consist of Ichiro in center, but we all know that’s not going to happen.
Regarding Beltre, I just don’t see many red flags here. No injury history, great package of tools that told everyone he was capable of this all along (a big difference from Boonie), and extreme youth for an FA (by contrast, Dallas McPherson who everyone loves so much for the Angels, will be 24 before he even gets to the majors). Oh yeah, and an absolutely sick year in a very tough pitcher’s park. All these add up to equal one incredibly attractive FA. When that FA is somebody who happens to play the position that is the biggest hole for our team in the foreseeable future, and he plays that position like a Gold Glover, I say you have to make a run at him. The fact that he’s so young and so healthy would make me willing to go 6 or even 7 years for his contract.
By the end of the year I bet the writers give him the MVP, even though Bonds deserves it. That will only increase his perceived desirabiity which will drive up the price unfortunately. It also means signing him would go a long way to appeasing an increasingly skeptical fan base.
The Yankees, Mets, Rangers, Angels (D Mac), Braves (Andy Marte is nasty) and Cardinals are set at 3B for years. If he’s indeed to pricey for the Dodgers, that would leave Boston, Baltimore, and maybe the Cubs if they lose Ramirez (who’s a good backup plan for us) as the biggest competition for Beltre. WIthout the NY teams, I doubt the price will shoot through the roof.
In my opinion, he’s basically a must get.
Beltre and Beltran have many things in common, including their first five letters and the fact they won’t ever be Seattle Mariners. The M’s are now the worst revenue rich team in the history of pro sports. Move over Knicks and NY Rangers. Get out of the way Orioles and Mets. Why oh why does anyone believe either of these two guys (or any other difference-maker in his prime) will ever sign with the Mariners, especially now when the franchise is going nowhere? Even those who otherwise might want to come to Seattle (Tejada, for example, but the list might not get any longer now) aren’t going to take a discount for the privilege of playing in the “best ballpark in America”. Like it or not, the M’s won’t be any good or entertaining any time soon. Which means that the M’s would have to overpay not one, not two, but many, many free agents just to compete. No one can expect the M’s will ever extend themselves to get just one superstar. So we are back to supporting a team like the one we had for the first 15 years. We’ll just have to make the best of it by savoring the little things (like, say, a Bucky at-bat or an Ichiro assault on the record book).
Jon. I agree. As much as fans want both Beltre and Beltran in Mariner uniform, it is just not going to happen.
Most likely acquisition would include overpriced solid players past their prime. If Mariners get rid of Scott Spiezio, H. Bocachica, W. Bloomquist, Ron Villone, R. Santiago and won’t pick up even worst players (although not very likely, but possible), it would be a better off-season then the last.
Jon’s comment is the most scary- the notion that the M’s ownership might look at this year and think “well, hell, if we’re going to lose 62% of our games and still draw almost 3 million fans, why spend any money at all on salary? Let’s just take it out of the club and if challenged, we’ll say that we’re actually losing money because of the stadium cost overruns we’re paying for, debt, yadda yadda yadda…”
The notion that they might do this terrifies me.
Beltre has been my No target all season. He is young, just enterign his prime, plays Gold Glove D and plays in an extreme pitchers park so Safeco shouldn’t hurt him.
Also 3B has been a problematic position for the Ms pretty much foreveer with the exeption of the couple years Edgar was healthy enough to play it. If there is any posiiton to break the bank to fill it is a 25 year old slugging GG 3Bman. Ofers and 1Bmen are easy to find.
Also factor in that our division rivals are all set at 3B for years to come.
Another thign to consider, who is our big market comp for him?
Yankees, ss and 3B pretty well set
Angels, have McPerhson
Texas, Blalock
Dodgers, have no money
Orioles, need to spend money on pitching
White Sox, Have their own FAs to sign
Cubs, need to resign Ramirez
Cards, Pretty well set to say the least!
Phillies? maybe a sleeper
Mets? Pretty well set
Boston? Hopefully between their own FAs and pursing Beltran vs the Yanks they won’t have any money left.
I think it will be the Ms and an out of nowhere team like the Tigers and Pudge this year. The best thing is to strik fast whiel the other teams are workign with Beltran, once he is off the market other teams might get in the mix.
Not a good idea. Even with the high payroll the Mariners have, spending a ton of cash on a 3B (a SS might be another thing) who’s having a fluke (or, so we’ll call it for now) year is not a wise investment. Sure the guy is young but where were these skills before? The surgery might have had something to do with it but I’m not taking the chance. Sign Beltran and be happy.
I have a tired old mantra, but I can’t give it up: Scott Boras = not worth it.
I like the lack of competetion for Beltre’s services that two posters pointed out above. However, Boras seems to be able to charm some team into overpaying, and Beltre just looks like a dangerous long-term investment. Take out 2004, and he’s a .725 OPS guy with potential. However, I’d be happy to lowball him and see if Boras overplays his hand with other teams.
Beltran is much less risky, but there’s that darn Boras again.
Are we certain that Beltre is 25? I thought there was some suspicion about him possibly being older than that.
a few thoughts to add to the mix:
-Right handed hitter in Safeco
-NL hitter not named Guerrero moving to AL
-With the M’s it isn’t the outlay of money that is the problem– like most teams, it is the willingness to go for length of contract beyond the three years that insurance might cover… and per Boras in the LA Times: “In the marketplace for premium players — high-end guys — I don’t know of any under the age of 30 in recent times that have not been offered less than six years”
Actually Beltre was found to be younger than he claimed. Remmeber a few years a go it was a big mess, the Dodgers signe dhim before he was 16 on a forged Birth Certificate. Durign the cleanup of that mess his real age was well established
To me the guy who is the biggest canidate to be over payed is Beltran. His numbers are great for a CFer, but easily obtained for a lot less money at a corner Of spot or 1B. Add to that he spent all but a few months of his career in a hitters park. I also think his D is not as good as people seem to give him credit for. Better than Winn? Sure, but he is not a Torii Hunter/young Griffey/Mike Cameron level CFer as some seem to think.
Probably true Eric; best to let NY overpay for Beltran (which they will do) and pick up a solid defensive CF and a solid hitting LF or 1B (depending on what you do with ibanez).
It all depends on what Beltre is going to cost, and how long he wants his contract to be. I am thinking five to seven years on the contract. Seven years is a long time for somebody who is not a sure thing.
If I were the Mariners, I’d target Beltre. He’s not going to hit like he did this year, but offensively and defensively, he should be at least a 20 run improvement over Leone(and his upside is 30-40). After Beltre, I think the Mariners should target Richard Hidalgo. If they can get him for around 4/35 I think he’d be a great value. He would outhit Winn, and is over 20 runs above average defensively in RF(that’s using UZR, not Clay’s crappy stats). Slide Ichiro to center, and put Reed in left. Then, try to sign Brad Radke, Jon Lieber(if his option’s not picked up), and/or David Wells. All three are players who put the ball in play but still have solid dERAs. In Safeco with a good defense behind them, they should succeed. That gives you for next year:
CF-Ichiro
LF-Reed
3B-Beltre
2B-Boone
DH-Jacobson
RF-Hidalgo
1B-Ibanez
C-Olivio
SS-Lopez
SP-Moyer
SP-Madrisch
SP-Radke
SP-Peinero
SP-Leiber/Franklin
Jon’s comment is the most scary- the notion that the M’s ownership might look at this year and think “well, hell, if we’re going to lose 62% of our games and still draw almost 3 million fans, why spend any money at all on salary?
They might not think it this year, but I’m pretty sure they won’t after a couple of years:
Cleveland W and attendance /game
2000: 90 W, 42670 per game
2001: 91 W, 39694 per game
2002: 74 W, 32308 per game (19% decrease)
2003: 68 W, 21358 per game (34% decrease)
Mariners:
2002: 93 W, 43740 per game
2003: 93 W, 40352 per game
2004: 60 W, 36376 per game (projected) (10% decrease)
It just takes a few years for the bottom to fall out of attendance. And I’ll be surprised if the Mariners crack 3 million this year.
Jon’s comment is the most scary- the notion that the M’s ownership might look at this year and think “well, hell, if we’re going to lose 62% of our games and still draw almost 3 million fans, why spend any money at all on salary?
2004: 60 W, 36376 per game (projected) (10% decrease)attendance figures reflect the number of tickets sold, not actual number of people at the game. If this trend continues, less people will renew their season tickets.
Per Aramis Ramirez — he is notorious for botching plays and making errors, and the last thing the Mariners should be doing is downgrading their defense rather than upgrading it. For two big reasons: 1. Defense (and range) is huge in Safeco field, and 2. We’ll have a very young pitching staff over the next few years trying to make their marks, and we should back them up with the best defense possible. I would take Koskie or Lowell over Ramirez. We can get the bigger upgrades in offense elsewhere if we need to. We don’t need an error-prone, poor defensive third-baseman at any cost.
I agree with the folks who say length of contract is the sticker. A big contract for three years that turns out to be a bust is one thing, but a seven or eight year $12M hole in the payroll would be very ugly. On the other hand, that might be the risk you gotta take to get a guy.
I’d look at it this way (and I don’t have the data to evaluate this in front of me right now). Call it a two-year rebuilding process – we will target .500 ball in ’05 and playoffs in ’06. By ’06, we need a CF, a 3B, a 1B and at least one #2-ish Starter (this assumes Bucky at DH and Lopez at SS, with Guardado and Piniero coming back next year, and two of the Tacoma guys break into the rotation by then). We maybe need a 2B. That gives three, maybe four, hitters and one, maybe two, pitchers. At least two of the hitter should be plus-bats, and at least one of the pitchers should be a plus-arm. That means three new salaries in the $8M-and-up range.
We can fill the CF and 1B slots with one acquisition, if we get a good bat for CF (Winn moves to LF and Ibanez to 1B. Winn is a more than adequate LF, and he can battle Reed for the position). If we get a good glove\avg bat in CF, we need another bat at 1B (or DH, if we decide Bucky can be and everyday 1B) and one at 3B. If we sign good bats for 3B and 1B, we could probably put Boccachica in CF (or at any rate propbably find a quality defensive CF for $2-3M). If we hire good bats for CF and 1B, we can play Leone (or Cabrerra) at 3B. Remember we have two offseasons to do this.
So, what bats are going to be free agents this year and next at 1B, 3B and CF? What competition will we have for them?
And why do people think it’s unlikely Ichiro would play CF? I kinda wonder myself, but has he (or the team) said anything to suggest it won’t happen? Or is it just based on the fact that the M’s have almost never put him in Center?
Oh, and why don’t comment sections have spell checkers?
You’re almost going to have to try and bite the bullet on this guy.
3B is a place where you need a power bat. However, most of the best 3Bs are locked up with their respective teams. Besides, it’s not like the M’s minor leagues are overflowing with top-notch prospects at the hot corner.
Ichiro wont play CF; this season was an opportune time to try that, and they haven’t. There is no reason to believe they will move him over every. That and Melvin has said he “likes” having ichiro in right; perhaps it is the one time every three years that he guns down someone trying to go from first to third on a single. Who knows.
Aramis Ramirez will likely go cheaper than Beltre. And i believe in the offseason it was clear that both the Cubs and the Red Sox were doing one-time spending sprees, so chances are he will float. I would rather pick him up, get someone like andruw jones (who i think is a FA after this season?) or jacque jones in center, then get a serious bat in left.
One thing to point out — Bavasi has an inside scoop on the Dodgers’ system. If there’s anyone in the M’s org that knows Beltre and what he has to offer, it’s Bavasi. I’d trust Bavasi’s knowledge of him, and if Beltre is as good as he’s been touted here (and as good as he’s performed, if not better), then Bavasi would know. Knowing that, he’ll either strongly recommend him or strongly discourage the M’s from getting him. Considering Bill is getting the big bucks to do that job (and I’m not), in this case I’m going to trust him.
The question really should be — is Beltre the biggest, best piece missing from this puzzle? If we’re going shopping for a long-term cornerstone to build this team around or two, is Beltre that guy? That’s the question that will be asked — or at least SHOULD be asked — before ANYONE is signed to a >3 year deal. Using Vladie’s contract as a measurement — is this guy as good or slightly less good to carry the weight of a salary in that echelon? Others may certainly have more well-informed opinions of course, but no matter if he hits 100 HRS this season, I’m not convinced that Beltre is in the Vladie echelon. Sure, it’d be nice to pick him up. But not at anywhere close to the Vladie contract.
Beltre should not be the Mariners main focus this off season. The outfield defense needs to get better. Sign Delgato to a short term contract and use him, Ibanez and Jacobsen as rotating first basemen/dh’s. Put Lopez at third and see if he will turn into an Adrian Beltre over time. Sign Jacque Jones to play center. Sign Orlando Cabrera to play short.
1b/dh…. Delgado, Ibanez, Jacobsen
2b……. Boone
ss……. Cabrera
3b……. Lopez
lf……. Winn
cf……. Jones
rf……. Ichiro
I think you could get the group of Delgado, Jones and Cabrera for about the same price as Beltre and Beltran individually. With all the holes the Mariners have to fill, I think they should be looking for good players in quantity rather than one shiny superstar.
Per Aramis Ramirez – he is notorious for botching plays and making errors, and the last thing the Mariners should be doing is downgrading their defense rather than upgrading it. [...] We don’t need an error-prone, poor defensive third-baseman at any cost.
Everyone I’ve heard says that Beltre is fantastic on defense.
BPro’s numbers say that he has been average throughout his career and that he is fantastic this year.
UZR sez that he was the 5th-best 3B, defensively, from 2000-2003.
He would be a big improvement over the Bloomquist/Spiezio two-headed monster.
What about Glaus? Yeah hes a risk but he would come cheaper and hes put up numbers comparable to what Beltre is doing now, and he was doing it at a younger age. It kinda comes down to: worst case you either end up with a busted up 3B man or a overpaid fluke player who you will have for years to come. Maybe its just me but id rather take my chances with Glaus, hey bavasi also had first hand look on both these guys too. Who knows.
Beltre should not be the Mariners main focus this off season. The outfield defense needs to get better.
Seattle is 14th (last) in the league in runs scored and 10th in the league in ERA, in a pitchers’ park. They need help on offense, defense, mascot dancing, bathroom cleaning, field grooming, and rally cap-wearing. You name it, the Mariners are bad at it. The Mariners don’t need to be picky about where to improve – they need help freaking everywhere. If they can acquire a great player, at any position, they should look into acquiring him. As far as the Mariners are concerned, the only question should be: Is Adrian Beltre for reals?
If so, they should try to sign him. If he’s for real, he would improve several of the Mariners weaknesses: Defense at third base, lack of power, and lack of a good third baseman.
If he’s not for real, then let him go.
six years, 80 mil, plus we move the franchise to somewhere like Orlando. Then maybe Beltre would return our phone call.
I am really hoping the Mariners break from their pattern of signing veterans like Delgado. They need to rebuild and I think youth is the way to go as opposed to injured or veteran players that people think will be bargains. There are reasons they will be bargains. I’m tired of them signing vets that have one outstanding year in their career. I’d rather sign a young guy with one outstanding year and more potential than any of those guys ever had. Say it with me: Beltre!
Positive Paul,
I’m so glad you trust Bavasi’s knowledge of the LA Dodgers organization, and his expertise regarding Beltre…
I also feel sooo fortunate that Bavasi has first-hand knowledge of the Anaheim Angels organization. His knowledge and ability to evaluate the ability of Scott Spiezio allowed the Mariners to hit the jackpot in acquiring him this past fall…
mmmmmmmm….
Remember that tiiimmme, when we signed Spiezioooo….
That was AWESOME!!!
sorry, that last rant wasn’t very clear. i didn’t mean to say delgado only had one good year. i’m worried about his knee though and he’s 32. glaus is who i was referring to as having one good year…and he’s coming back from rotator cuff surgery and has had back problems among other things. how much longer will he be able to keep that power swing? oh, and i think he got paid about $9M this year. think he’s gonna take a big cut in pay? i don’t. he’s still gonna be too much for too much of a risk in my opinion.
That said, and in all seriousness, I don’t get the feeling that Beltre is a fluke. He’s hit over 20 HRs before and driven in a good number of runs…so it seems like he’s just hitting his stride.
It would be nice for some stability at 3B for the first time since David Bell.
Oh come on Speizio looked like a decent signing and was in no way expected to fail like this, hes been fine on D which what had most people doubting him.
But still id take glauses risk of being a injury fiend whos worst case scenerio is ending up at DH or 1B. Getting beltre you could end up with a overpriced fluke who won’t survive in your park. Glaus put up 4 years of no injury with 25+ hr and two 40 dinger seasons and does nobody remember 2002 world series? A certin guy won the mvp. Plus we know he can hit AL pitchers..
To those who want to use Vladi as a measuring stick for Beltre – h, I think Beltre is more of a sure thing than Vladi was, both as he hits the market and over the long-term. He’s younger, and doesn’t have the history of back problems.
Guerrero is having a huge year and I surely with the M’s had signed him, but I won’t be shocked if he misses major time at some point in the next few years. Back problems don’t go away or heal, they always get worse.
Beltre has no such red flags. The only question is, is this year a fluke or not? As I’ve said before, I don’t see any reason to think it is. Everything – tools, performance, age, and health – add up to scream that Beltre’s for real.
In my opinion, Beltre’s the most desirable FA to hit the market since ARod left us. Fortunately, he won’t require ARod money, though he won’t come cheap. He’s a perennial MVP candidate waiting to happen. The above points about defense being important to help the young pitchers are valid as well. Everything adds up to Adrian Beltre being THE PIECE the M’s need to build around. Sign him and the rebuilding process just got a lot quicker and a WS in 06 or 07 got a lot more likely.
Random guy, I think it was people remembering the 02 WS that led to the Spiezio debacle. I’ll pass on acquiring talent based on those 7 games (or was it 6?). I’ve always liked Troy (I have few namesakes in sports and always root for them, except for Aikman) but seriously, his years at 3B are likely over, making him infinitely less valuable. Comparing him to Beltre at this point is like comparing Aurilia to Carlos Guillen – doesn’t anyone remember Aurilia’s 40 HR year? Didn’t he play in the 02 WS? Isn’t he a proven veteran? Yes, yes, and yes, but he’s no Calros Guillen. Troy Glaus is no Adrian Beltre.
Spiezio looked like a decent signing? To you maybe. He was a .261 career hitter with not a lot of power (career high 17 HRs; Justin Leone hit 6 HRs in 102 AB’s this year as a raw rookie, a pace of 30-35 HRs for a full season). Only a complete idiot (i.e. Bavasi) would give a three-year deal to a player like Spiezio at age 31.
And only a ridiculously optimistic Mariner fan would have considered the Spiezio signing a good one at the time. Unless of course you believed in the intangibles that guys like Spiezio and Willie Bloomquist have, you know the kind of stuff that doesn’t show up in the box score, the kind of stuff that only guys on last place teams with dopey managers have…
Many of us were howling in protest at the time of the Spiezio signing. Before this season he was a .260 hitter with 12-14 HR power moving to a pitcher’s park. With the expected fall-off from those numbers I’d have expected him to hit .250 with 10 HR’s. Instead he’s hitting .205 with 9 HR’s. Certainly worse than expected but no one should be shocked.
Beltre would be a first for the Mariners — acquiring talent on the way up instead of the way down. I’m all for it.
The M’s are so bad that adding just one of the big free agents won’t be enough to create a decent team. Many of them are needed to turn this ship around, yet none will come. As I said above, Beltre and Beltran will not be Mariners. Nor will any other high impact free agent. That won’t stop many of us from continuing to talk about why the M’s should/will sign them. It won’t stop until they’ve signed somewhere else. Until then, the M’s brass will sit back and chuckle at all of the hot stove league chatter (which started 5 months early for M’s fans). Fears will be calmed, intentions will be stated, promises will be made. Only to have (irrational) hopes dashed. Again. And then we’ll talk about the 2006 free agents that the M’s should/will sign. [In the unlikely event the M's ever would overpay to sign just one impact free agent, that news would be quickly followed by Lincoln declaring there is no money in the budget to address any of the other team weaknesses and, in fact, the team must off-load a few players and create some more weaknesses just to afford the overpaid new guy. Then we'll feel horrible. Just like now.]
I completely concur with everything Troy Sowden has said in his last two comments here. Beltre is (very likely) a centerpiece to build around–not a high-risk/ high-reward question mark. He’s only 25.
It’s been discussed what teams will be the “money” teams to pickup a 3B this offseason. LA is cutting salary, and have stated that they WILL NOT sign contracts beyond 3 years any longer…probably because teams cannot insure players beyond the 3rd year in any contract.
Ben Maller reported today that they will be “starting” at 6yrs for Beltre in the offseason, but figures and $$$ were not mentioned as of yet.
Boston & Orioles have been open about their interest in Beltre. Like I said, LA is cutting payroll, and so is Atlanta, and many other teams. Also, last week Mike Lowell publicly stated that there is NO WAY Florida will have a “signed” approval for a new stadium in Florida. So, he was insinuating that he will be going elsewhere. But he also mentioned that he gave them a “discount” because of the new stadium issue. So no doubt, he’ll be demanding more than $7M too.
That will leave 3B FA’s:
Beltre
Lowell
Koskie
If Lowell comes on the market that will bring Beltre’s price way down considering Boston, Orioles, and M’s are the main $$$ teams going after these guys. But, Orioles have even openly acknowledged that they “way” overpaid for Tejada, so they maynot be interested in going that high on a 3B…even if it is Beltre or Lowell.
If it got down to deciding whether we had to choose Beltre or Beltran, I would have to go with Beltran to improve our CF defense what it would take. I will be totally shocked if he gets more than $12Myr for 5 yrs though.
If we picked up Beltran as our #1 priority, and we couldn’t get Beltre too…I would focus on Koskie at 3B in the $3.5-4.5M range. Koskie has some of the BEST 3B defense out there, will hit 20-30 HR’s as a LHB (Safeco will definitely help him out even). Then we would have enough money for Sexson, Pavano, and another strong relief pitcher.
It’s sounding like the Philly’s will be possibily moving Chase Utley. OR, there maybe a chance that Polanco can be had as a FA this offseason. This all means that we can move Boone, and save even more money. In fact, with the Yankee’s worried about Boston catching up, and their pitching staff concerns, they maybe more interested in trading for Boone at 2B for insurance since he’s already cleared waivers.
Here are the links for Polanco, Utley, and Koskie:
http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/sports/9498551.htm
Placido Polanco can play second base or third base at a very high level. He is 28 years old. He has a .291 career average and, despite struggling this season with runners in scoring position, he has a .271 career average in that situation. And he’s a free agent at the end of this season.
The Phillies have Chase Utley ready to inherit Polanco’s second base slot and they have David Bell locked up at third for two more seasons. Still, they say they have hopes of re-signing Polanco.
Don’t count on it.
“I want to be somewhere I play every day,” Polanco said.
His preference is second base, where, he knows, he has a chance to win a Gold Glove – and, on the road, his locker is right beside the guy who will be playing second every day next season.
Still, with the meagerness of money on the free-agent market the past two seasons, Polanco won’t eliminate the Phillies and their possible offer of part-time playing from his consideration – though the buyer of him as a bench player better beware.
“I’m pretty intense and on days I don’t play I’m in a bad mood,” Polanco said. “I don’t know if a team would want a guy who’s in a bad mood when he doesn’t play.”
It should be noted that Polanco didn’t start yesterday.
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/9490569.htm
Phillies second baseman Chase Utley has the third-best RBI ratio in baseball among hitters who have at least 200 at-bats. He has 51 RBIs in just 210 at-bats. That’s a 4.12 ratio. That ranks behind only San Francisco’s Barry Bonds at 3.62 and St. Louis’ Scott Rolen at 3.93.
Phillies manager Larry Bowa said he will try to get Utley as many at-bats as possible, but Placido Polanco will remain his regular.
The article states:
Utley produces. Phillies second baseman Chase Utley has the third-best RBI ratio in baseball among hitters who have at least 200 at-bats. He has 51 RBIs in just 210 at-bats.
That’s a 4.12 ratio. That ranks behind only San Francisco’s Barry Bonds at 3.62 and St. Louis’ Scott Rolen at 3.93.
Phillies manager Larry Bowa said he will try to get Utley as many at-bats as possible, but Placido Polanco will remain his regular.
“Chase knows the situation,” Bowa said. “I think [Polanco] has earned his spot. It’s not like he’s had an off year. He’s played outstanding since the trade deadline. He’s a good player.”
Polanco is hitting .286 with 13 RBIs in 133 at-bats since the all-star break, and .313 with six homers and 13 RBIs since the July 31 trade deadline. Utley has hit .315 with 25 RBIs in 89 at-bats since the all-star break, and .289 with three homers and 15 RBIs since the trade deadline.
“One is a table setter and the other is a run producer,” Bowa said. “You’re comparing apples to oranges.”
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/sports/9487329.htm
Marlins GM Larry Beinfest says Miguel Cabrera’s position for 2005 won’t be determined until this winter. First base, left field, right field and third base (if Mike Lowell leaves) are possibilities. Cabrera says he has no preference.
http://www.twincities.com/mld/pioneerpress/sports/9486594.htm?1c
It’s uncertain whether the Twins will re-sign free agent Corey Koskie. But if they don’t, word is Koskie won’t have to worry about a job. Baseball insiders say there will be at least a half-dozen teams lined willing to offer multiyear deals averaging at least $3.5 million a season, if the 31-year-old becomes available. Koskie’s value is especially high now because of the lack of quality third basemen available, and in particular, lefthanded-hitting third basemen.
Although he’s hitting just .251, his career average over seven years is .281. And after hitting his 22nd homer Tuesday night against Texas, Koskie has a chance for a 30-homer season.
Here’s the sad thing now: Late last December there were several rumors with sending Ben Davis to the Philly’s for Utley & Michaels. They wanted Davis to backup their starting catcher Mike Lieberthal. And, since Davis is from Philadelphia it seemed like a very possible rumor.
Garry, i missed why the orioles will be shopping for a 3B when they have mora and newhan (both hitting ~ .350) available at that corner.
Also beltran will be in the $17-$20 million range. His performance with the astros (horrible) wont impact his selling value. He is still a 30/30 switch hitter, capable of a .300+ average, and a solid defensive CF.
And boras is his agent.
And steinbrenner wants him.
Garry, all you’ve done is convince me even more that Beltre can be done. Beltre will do more to help the IF D than Beltran will to help the OF D. He’ll also be cheaper and have far fewer suitors – particularly not the Yankees. I like Beltre alot better than Beltran right now.
Garry, all you’ve done is convince me even more that Beltre can be done. Beltre will do more to help the IF D than Beltran will to help the OF D. He’ll also be cheaper and have far fewer suitors – particularly not the Yankees. I like Beltre alot better than Beltran right now.