Game thread, Mariners at Athletics, 9/27
DMZ · September 27, 2004 at 5:40 pm · Filed Under Mariners
I don’t feel bad about saying this — the A’s are reeling, having problems getting people out, particularly. I’d love to see the M’s beat up on them this last series to play spoiler and get them out of the playoffs, just because it would cause so many people to go insane with rage. People I want to see go insane with rage.
Moyer v Zito
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51 Responses to “Game thread, Mariners at Athletics, 9/27”
Unfortunately, Moyer is also having problems getting people out.
(We’ll see if this works.)
A 3 or 4 hit night for Ichiro along with a win would do just fine tonight.
Read the comments in this thread to see what I’m driving at (starting with 10).
http://ussmariner.com/index.php?p=1921#comments
It’s too bad Moyer’s not likely to have a solid pitching performance…
Oh so many lefties. Ichiro’s breaking the record in this series. Check out his numbers against lefties. Unreal.
Is it really worth seeing those people go insane with rage, though, when you also are going to have the Buster Olneys and Phil Rogers of the world pointing to Oakland’s failure as proof that sabermetrics doesn’t really work?
Every Moyer start is Home Run Derby night.
I’d much rather see the A’s take the AL West than the Angels. I’m hoping the M’s continue their road woes. In a similar vein to what Adam said above, do you want to hear Joe Morgan saying that the philosophy outlined in Billy Beane’s book, Moneyball, doesn’t work? (Joe Morgan still hasn’t realized that Billy Beane DIDN’T write Moneyball)
Three things:
1)Dave Concepcion should be in the Hall of Fame
2)I invented baseball.
3)Billy Beane wrote Moneyball. I read part of it.
I’m not a mega-Wilie basher (to me he’s Charles Gipson if Charles could actually steal bases, nothing more), but I definitely don’t see the point of having him play first and Reed sit tonight. Reed’s gonna have to break his cherry facing lefties sometime, Zito will be in his division for the foreseable future, and it gets Randy Winn out of CF.
Reed struggled against lefties somewhat in Tacoma, but that’s why they have that brilliant HOF coach, right?
Jaime gives up #42.
and #43
Update:Jaime gives up #43
WILLIE!
Holy cow, bloomquist homered.
Thank god there was one out, otherwise melvin would have had him sac bunt the runners over
ICHIRO!
Ichiro gets hit #252 and Dave Valle calls a knee-high pitch “on the ground”.
I swear, when Dave Valle speaks I almost have to hold my hands over my ears so my brain doesn’t run away and drown itself in a toilet.
Zito giving up Bloomquist’s HR reminded me of Arthur Rhodes giving up David Eckstein’s HR down the line last night. Morgan said that Rhodes “made him” hit a HR with his poor location. Kinda nutty but there’s some truth in that.
How many warning track flies has Edgar hit this year? If only he was physically sound….
I’m glad Willie is finally showing us his power. We knew he had it. But he hadn’t shown it yet. Why so shy, Willie? Hmm?
As an aside, completely unrelated, I’d just like to note that I heard the other day from someone married to someone who works on the field that Bloomquist doesn’t just suck, he’s also a dick. How ’bout that? All that *and* a bag of chips.
Crap.
The “3-year deal” for Bloomquist just became official.
Dammit.
Hitting machine!
#17 John,
Do you mean Willie isn’t properly respectful of the dancing grounds crew? Notify Howard Lincoln immediately and maybe he’ll do a Jose Guillen on him.
Anyone else see the bit on Yahoo about Guardado pitching in the fall league?
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=fanball-marinersguardadohead&prov=fanball&type=lgns
Whoa… if we’re not careful here, we could be looking at Staff Victory Leader Ron Villone (presently tied with Moyer at 7).
I think the biggest joke in MLB at times is the offical scoring. A double for Durazo???
Yeah, loading the bases.
Hey, what happened to the game?
What are Ichiro’s splits against the upcoming pitchers – since Boone screwed him out of a chance for another at-bat?
Three worthless at-bats by the bottom of the order, depriving Ichiro of one last at-bat, a ridiculous error, and a…curious decision to walk the bases loaded (considering our staff).
That last inning pretty much sums up the season.
That was just stupid. Melvin chose to face a better hitter in Bobby Crosby, put more pressure on his own pitcher, and gave the A’s the possibility winning on a bases loaded walk as well. When the game is on the line you don’t want to increase your opponents chances of scoring Bob.
Load the bases or not, you need a strikeout.
And if you need a strikeout, is Julio Mateo (essentially on a rehab assignment) your guy?
Horrible scoring of the double. Jose Lopez turned into Carlos Guillen who never met a LF pop up he wouldn’t go after.
Not strictly true -with the bases loaded a double play is available everywhere.
What I don’t get is why the middle infield was playing in. The corners should play in so they can start the double play at home, sure, but the middle should play at regular double play depth, because any double play gets you out of the inning.
Oddly enough, only a couple minutes later, the Rockies also walked the bases loaded with runners on 1st and 3rd and one out in the bottom of the 9th and the score tied– in their case, to face Milton Bradley.
It didn’t work any better for them. (But at least they had the excuse that the guy they walked was Adrian Beltre.)
The question in my mind was: How often does a play occur when you can get the guy at home on a force but not on a tag? Probably less often than a bases-loaded walk, I’d imagine.
Fortunately for me, as long as the M’s are out of it I prefer to see pro-sabermetric teams in the playoffs, so tonight’s results didn’t particularly bother me (is it heresy to say that here?).
OK. I think I understand why Melvin had Mateo intentionally walk Scutaro, loading the bases. Crosby had been in a horrible slump, including his 0 for 4 up till that point. Does this make sense?
a. Probability that Scutaro wins the game:
Hit (last 7 days): .273
Fly Ball: .333
Total: .606
b. Probability that Crosby wins the game:
OBP (last 7 days) .130
Fly Ball: .293
Total: .423
“What I don’t get is why the middle infield was playing in.”
Boone has shown this month that he can’t make that throw playing at normal depth.
I think the key is getting the second out so you can play at normal depth. Hoping that Lopez-Boone2004-Cabrera turn into Tinker-Evers-Chance or even Guillen-Boone2001-Olerud is a bit of a reach.
Btw, Hendu and Neihaus were on Winn’s case for playing too deep for his throwing arm.
I love this (yes, I suck)
They walked Scutaro because if the dude on first steals 2nd and they throw through then they risk the fast pinch runner scoring and if they don’t throw they’ll be out of the double play situation and probably walk scutaro to set it up anyways.
They probably would take second in that situation, but why not make them earn it rather than hand it to them.
Plus I just don’t like the idea of loading the bases with the game on the line. It leaves the pitcher no room at all for error. I mean if a base is open and he falls behind in the count he doesn’t HAVE to come back with fastball. When the bases are loaded with the game on the line and the pitcher falls behind he is going to have to come back with a fastball that catches a good chunk of the plate.
And I don’t really want to do the research (yes I’m lazy) but I am willing to bet that bases loaded and one out results in runs more often than runners at 1st and 3rd and one out. I realize that none of those runs count except the one on third but that’s just another reason to not load the bases and give the other team the possibility of a bases loaded walk.
When the game is on the line a runner at third and one out is never a good situation. But I see bases loaded and one out being a worse situation, if only slightly so.
The Expected Runs Table (use URL) says:
Man on 3rd, 1 out: 0.96 expected runs
Bases loaded, 1 out: 1.57 expected runs
That being said, the chances of a run scoring at all are virtually identical (0.667 versus 0.678.)
No matter what Melvin does, isn’t the main point of contention what Tede says, that is, having Mateo in that situation particularly when Melvin has been so insistent on having “the best team” out on the field. Was Mateo the best choice for a bases loaded situation with the game on the line? It it almost like one of those ridiculous poltical ads, “there’s what Melvin says, and there’s what Melvin does.” If you’re really looking for a punchout there why not bring in Putz at the point even with the game tied?
What surprised me was pinch-running for Durazo.
With no outs and Durazo on second, that’s when I put in the pinch-runner, as it greatly increases the chances of scoring on a single. But Macha left him in until after Durazo has been advanced to third on the grounder. So now with Durazo on third and one out, that’s when I leave him in. Scoring from third doesn’t require a bunch of speed, and if Mateo gets out of the inning with a double play then Oakland still has Durazo around for extra innings.
Paul Molitor Cocktail (#38) — First, great name. Second, your last comment explains the strategy for Faceplant best: its not RUNS but ONE RUN that matters in this situation, so if you can set up a double play anywhere and a force at the plate with no significant change in the probability of scoring one run, especially considering the numbers Bernard (#33) shared regarding BA and flyball probabilities for Scutaro and Crosby (though if I understand how FB/GB ratios are figured, there is a bit of overlap there since hits are also counted), you do it.
I think loading the bases was the correct decision, but I agree with the comments saying Mateo wasn’t the right pitcher to have in at the time. He’s only been back a week or so, and even though he has a decent K/9 (7.04) and BB rate (14 in 55 IP), he’s not likely to be sharp and he is a flyball pitcher (GB:FB ratio of .71). In that situation, you need your sharpest available groundball pitcher (maybe Atchison with an 11.05 K/9 and 1.33 GB:FB, or Putz with a 1.51 GB:FB and 6.8 K/9 . . .) in the game.
To Michael (#27) — the upcoming pitchers and Ichiro’s AVG against are:
Hudson .211 (12-57)
Harden .000 (0-4)
Drese .500 (8-16)
Rogers .250 (6-24)
Park .200 (3-15)
It looks to me like the record will be broken at home.
It’s funny you say that because it is exactly how I felt after Willie suckass hit his 3 run HR last night. I was furious. All season I’ve been hoping the M’s would lose to help show up Bavasi. Then Willie suckass, who doesn’t belong on any team, proves his worth to the blind GM. The final insult is that it hurts the moneyball case if Oakland loses the division. If Oakland and LA can hold on, it’ll be a banner year for the moneyball crowd. And we will be able to shove crow further down Joe and Buster’s throats.
If you bring in Putz he could walk in the run, atleast with Mateo you know he’s going to get the ball over the plate.
I do wish that Mateo would’ve attacked the inside corner with fastballs but whatever.
Melvin couldn’t bring Putz in. Putz is the closer, which means he cannot be used unless they have a lead. Isn’t that a league rule?
Melvin was quoted in the PI as saying he won’t start Dobbs in a divisional game because he has to play veterans in those games (I think that’s a league rule also). Meaning we’ll see Bloomquist, Spiezio and Cabrera the rest of the way instead of Dobbs and Reed. Oh joy.
RE: Hoping the A’s lose the West.
The anti-Moneyball people will grasp onto anything to make thier point, including the Blue Jays failure, but the A’s and Dodgers playing until the end, and a Red Sox playoff berth should be enough for most open-minded people that there’s more than one way to win at baseball.
But we WANT the M’s front office to think there’s only one way to win, and if the Angels win this year, it might convince them to go out and sign a couple big name pitchers and a masher. This team has shown no ability to win internally or through trades like the A’s, so we have to hope the Mariners can win through free-agency like the Yankees or (this year’s) Angels.
Maybe Melvin’s fixing the games. Perhaps he knows that the A’s are supposed to win this game and leaves Mateo in……puts Bloomquist at first, etc.
With the way margin of error works in baseball, if a team wins by one game or loses by one game, it should not fault or help any moneyball or anti-moneyball argument. The fact that the A’s do what they do with the budget they have consistently should be a gold star for Beane and his philosophies.
One of the biggest reasons I have to root for the A’s to win is Bloody Smurf (David Eckstein). Not sure what it is about him that drives me nuts, other than his leaning into pitches to get the HBP…
Just like you said Jeremy about 3 year deal for Willie now. Anyone else rooting against him cuz you know if he does well in the last week it means he will be around next year and as big a role too probably. I was hoping he’d finish below .200 so he wouldn’t get another chance.
Moneyball schmoneyball.
I could care less who wins the West. Is my team going to win the West? Hell no.
Am I bitter? What do you think.
The way I look at it, it doesn’t much matter now who wins the West. With Oakland’s pitching staff in a shambles, and Guillen suspended, and Texas a mediocre team, none of the three stands a chance against any of the other three playoff teams.
Just out of curiosity, Derek, who are the people you want to see insane with rage?