Guardado to instructional leagues

DMZ · September 28, 2004 at 11:42 am · Filed Under Mariners 

Seattle Times ran this in a notebook item a couple days back, but Guardado’s headed to Arizona to pitch a bit and test his strong-feeling arm.

My feeling on this is… I don’t count on Guardado being back next year. Rotator cuff problems are huge, and medically we’re not to the point where we know what effective rehab looks like even if we know what the problems are and repair them through surgery. So when I say my feeling is this, or that, it’s a guess, just like everyone else’s opinion, including his.

If he comes back next year, it’s a huge risk to be re-injured and then he’s out for the season at least.

The pro side of this says that if he injured the shoulder because his motion was thrown off by another injury, if he’s healthy his mechanics should be okay and the shoulder, in turn, should also be okay.

But we don’t know. So in the 2005 roster construction post, for instance, I don’t have him slotted as the closer.


12 Responses to “Guardado to instructional leagues”

  1. eponymous coward on September 28th, 2004 11:53 am

    The way I figure it, if he gets some usage in October, we possibly find out quicker if his arm is toast for a year- ideally, in time for the M’s to make moves this winter.

  2. Troy on September 28th, 2004 12:20 pm

    Do we WANT the M’s picking up a closer this winter though? I know we needs somebody to finish games (and preferably someone who’s not now on the roster), but I have a bad feeling we’ll again overpay for the limited value that a closer actually brings. It’s probably too early yet, but is there any word on which side is picking up Eddie’s option for next year? I’m hoping it’s not the M’s side.

  3. Coach on September 28th, 2004 1:11 pm

    I’m afraid Bavasi is thinking along the lines you state, and like Troy I am afraid what they might do with that advanced notice. Something tells me that Jose Mesa is part of the punch line.

  4. Matt Williams on September 28th, 2004 1:18 pm

    There’s a name we’ve been kicking around at work since before the season started and it sends shivers down my spine. After the aborted Omar deal it haunted us. The six words I dread…

    Bobby Ayala comes out of retirement.

  5. msb on September 28th, 2004 1:20 pm

    speaking of Troys, Troy Percival?

  6. Paul Covert on September 28th, 2004 1:58 pm

    Maybe with more time to tinker I could find a better comparison, but this one will do:

    Reliever A: 29.1 IP, 3 HR, 14 BB, 36 K, 3.38 ERA
    Reliever B: 47.2 IP, 7 HR, 19 BB, 33 K, 2.83 ERA

    The fact that Reliever B has the edge in saves, 31-0, should tell you which one is Troy Percival and which one is Scott Atchison.

    That, plus the fact that Percival is a 35-year-old veteran, has me thinking cynical thoughts about how well he’d appeal to this front office….

  7. Ralph Malph on September 28th, 2004 2:29 pm

    J J Putz since August 1:

    16 games, 9 saves in 9 chances

    14 1/3 innings, 1 BB/11 K, 11 hits

    ERA of 2.51, opp BA .208

    I’m not saying that’s a long enough time to mark him down as the closer, but we shouldn’t rule out the possibility.

  8. Bernard Aboba on September 28th, 2004 3:16 pm

    My understanding was that Guardado went for the rehab option because there was no downside — if it didn’t work, he could always have the operation, and assuming the decision were made soon enough, he wouldn’t miss another season on top of 2005 which would be shot either way.

    I’m presuming that the point of Instructional League is to help make a determination whether the arm is sound enough to avoid surgery. According to Norm Charlton, coming back from rotator cuff surgery is very tough, so that Guardado would probably like to avoid that if at all possible.

    However, I hope whatever they do they don’t let this drag out too long without a decision. If Guardado comes to spring training and the issue still isn’t settled, then they risk losing him for 2006 as well as 2005 if he has to have surgery.

  9. eponymous coward on September 28th, 2004 3:32 pm

    Look, the M’s NEED bullpen help at this point, one way or another, unless you want to count on on Shiggy returning to form, Villone keeping his form, Mateo coming back, Putz staying where he is in August. I mean, come on, if Bavasi is talking about Madristch going to the pen, in a rotation that’s got serious question marks next year in 4 rotation spots (Meche/Moyer/Franklin/Piniero), OBVIOUSLY it’s not a strong point. Whether it’s a Rhodes/Nelson style pickup of a setup guy who gives you 80 IP and a ERA between 2.50 and 3.50 in the 8th and 8th inning, or a closer who gives them in the 9th, we could seriously use an extra arm there, maybe two. I think either trading a surplus OF for a decent bullpen arm or targeting one for 2-3 million in free agency wouldn’t be unwise. If you do it right, a bullpen is relatively easy to repair (see: Anaheim and Texas)- far cheaper than a rotation.

  10. Ralph Malph on September 28th, 2004 4:22 pm

    Agreed. The answer to a bullpen problem isn’t to move a promising starter out of a questionable rotation. That is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Moving Madritsch to the pen would be a terrible idea. Moving Franklin to the pen makes a lot more sense.

    I understood Guardado is just going to throw a couple innings in the IL to see if his arm is healthy. Though I’m not sure how much it really proves if he can throw a couple of innings — will we really know until we see if he can sustain it for a few weeks?

  11. Jim Thomsen on September 28th, 2004 6:46 pm

    Troy Percival has stated publicly on several occasions that he’ll probably retire after this year.

  12. Mimiru on September 28th, 2004 10:11 pm

    Have to say, I liked Everyday Eddie but we (Twins) were unable to keep him at exactly the right time. Call it a happy accident.

    Anyhow, thanks for playing spoilers for the As! I like the idea of homefield advantage!