Jose Lopez and 2005
I made a pretty long post about Jose Lopez about a month ago, so I’m going to try and stay away from rehashing the arguments about Lopez’s future potential and value. I am wondering, however, why nearly everyone views him as a viable option as the Mariners starting shortstop or even third baseman next year.
Regardless of whether you think Lopez is going to be a superstar, you have to admit that the current version is not a productive player. His .234/.265/.383 line gives him a VORP of -0.1. He’s basically the definition of a replacement level shortstop, giving the Mariners the same production as they could find by signing a minor league free agent this offseason.
How likely is it that he’ll make the jump from replacement level to useful contributor next year? Slim to none. PECOTA (which basically nailed Lopez’s 2004 performance on the button) had Lopez’s value in 2005 at about 0.7 wins and a .246 EqA, meaning he’s just a hair above replacement level. To be simply “average”, he’d have to hit his 75th percentile projection. To expect much more out of Lopez next year than a .250/.290/.400 line is unrealistic. Even the most optimistic comparisons for Lopez struggled in their age 21 seasons in the majors. At that age, Tejada hit .202/.240/.333 in 98 at-bats, then followed it up with a .233/.298/.384 season a year later. He didn’t even become useful until age 23 or productive until 24.
So, if we expect that Lopez is going to perform at or near replacement level next year, why on earth would you go into spring training with him as your number one option? Even if you want him to take the job, it is incumbant upon the Mariners to bring in another replacement level shortstop to provide depth and an alternative in case of injury or struggles. Making Lopez the unquestioned starter while simultaneously expecting a performance equal to what you could get for a non-roster invitee is foolish.
In my mind, it isn’t even a question that the Mariners need to sign a cheap alternative shortstop to seriously challenge for the position. If spring training rolls around and Lopez has made monstrous improvements, you simply cut the NRI or make him the backup. However, if Lopez hasn’t made strides and appears to be on his way to posting another season at least as mediocre as what you can get from the veteran-of-the-day, send him to Tacoma and save the service time.
Players develop in Triple-A all the time. The argument that Lopez cannot develop without the challenge of major league pitching lacks any kind of supporting evidence. Simply burning through his pre-arbitration years because he’s cheap is short-sighted thinking. The Mariners will be able to pick from a large group of players who can be obtained for the major league minimum, several of them non-guaranteed, who will be able to post numbers in a similar range to what you expect from Lopez next year. With that being the case, he just shouldn’t be considered a real option for the opening day job. If he opens your eyes in spring training, deal with it then. Assuming that he’s going to is setting yourself up for disaster, both next year and in 2011, when he’s hitting the free market a year earlier than he should be.
Corey Koskie
I’m hoping to knock out mini-columns on each player who seems like a good fit for the M’s in the offseason. We’ve done Beltre (thumbs up), Beltran (thumbs way up), and Delgado (thumbs down) so far. Since Corey Koskie is getting some love in the comments and even Derek’s throwing him support, this seems like a good time for me to bust out the “Corey Koskie as Jeff Cirillo” post. There’s just no way you could convince me to sign Koskie for more than 1 year at any price, and I’d be reluctant to give him more than $1 million for 2005. Obviously, he wouldn’t be signing with my team, which is fine with me.
And I say that as a huge Corey Koskie fan. For the past 4 years, he’s been a very underrated player, a solid contributor both offensively and defensively who does the things that don’t get noticed well enough to establish himself as a mini-star but gets none of the noteriety. Unfortunately, Koskie is on the verge of collapse, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was out of baseball in two years. Take a look at these 2001-2003 splits:
Vs Left: .239/.326/.388
Vs Right: .297/.396/.500Home: .292/.401/.486
Road: .265/.348/.443
Good Koskie couldn’t hit lefties and was an average player away from the Metrodome. He was only a factor offensively in about 65 percent of the Twins games. Put a lefty on the mound or grass beneath his feet and Koskie, at his physical prime, was someone you don’t really want in the line-up every day. Even at his peak, he was only situationally valuable.
I’m of the belief that Good Koskie is gone forever, and precipitous decline is on its way. He is a career .280 hitter, hitting .292 last year. He’s hitting .249 this year, including monthly averages of .245, .241, and .209. Huge drops in batting average can be random, but they can also indicate a serious loss of bat speed. Players usually compensate for this by adopting “old-player skills”, taking more pitches and only swinging at the ones they can drive. This often provides upward spikes in walk and home run rate, while singles and doubles take a dive. Even if it provides a short value boost, it is often a sign of iminent decline.
His bat has noticably slowed and his chronic back problems have contributed to an adjustment in Koskie’s approach at the plate. He’s also missed the last several weeks with a severe ankle sprain. His body is wearing down and is just about ready to give out.
PECOTA projected a precipitous decline for Koskie even before he started his transformation to old-player skills this year. Based on his numbers through 2003, PECOTA projected Koskie from 3.7 wins in 2004 to 2.8 wins in 2005 down to 2.1 wins in 2006 and just 1.3 by 2007. Koskie undershot his 2004 projection and the system will almost certainly penalize him for that, so you can knock those projections down a notch.
Corey Koskie has been a good player, though one with limited uses, for several years. Unfortunately, he’s on the verge of collapse, and giving him a multiyear deal is setting yourself up for a trap. Koskie is firmly entrenched in the avoid category for the coming offseason.
Official 2005 Mariner construction and free agent post
Your 2005 Seattle Mariners: Preview and Speculation
Brought to you by Scott Boras. Scott Boras thanks the Seattle Mariners for signing Adrian Beltre.
Last update:
12/20 (Derek update of everything)
Since every thread we seem to have is hijacked into this, I’m going to take Dave’s suggestion and start one large post, which we can update as things happen and we debate possibilities.
Pitching
Rotation
SP under contract: Moyer (~$7.5m), Franklin ($2.4m), Pineiro (~$4m), Madritsch ($ small)
SP who could return if taken to arbitration: Meche (DZ: the least he’ll get is $2m, I’m guessing he’ll come out at $3 or better)
Candidates: many others
We haven’t talked about Moyer’s struggles much in the face of the disaster of the season, but you have to wonder if he’s lost just enough that he’s not going to be able to fool major league hitters any more. I gotta believe this is a blip, a product of defense and uh, luck? But that’s just me, I’m an optimist about this stuff. Pineiro’s slated to come back for next year. If you figure they’re going to take Meche to arbitration and Meche’s arm doesn’t fall off between now and next season, we predict Madritsch is going to open the season in the rotation, for a full five. As a unit, you’re hoping for a comeback (Moyer), a return from injury/breakout year (Pineiro), an injury risk/USSM official lightening rod (Meche), a guy who’s average at best (Franklin), and Madritsch. If it all comes together, it’s good. If any of that comes apart, it’s the tilt-a-whirl we’ve been enduring this year again, and things get bad quickly.
And maybe, dare we say it… King Felix could crack this rotation and… I don’t want to say too much.
Upgradability: Large. A top-line FA starter to replace Franklin (or even Meche) would help a lot, allow one of those risks to not pan out, and also give a lot of aid to…
FA upgrade candidates:
RHP Kevin Millwood. Could his problems with the gopher ball be solved at Safeco? M’s rotation says: some balls just can’t be caught. Buzz is he’s the M’s #1 pitching target.
(signed) RHP Pedro Martinez. Oh baby, what a gamble.
RHP Carl Pavano
(signed) RHP Matt Clement
RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka
LHP Odalis Perez. Ask Jason about Odalis– I hear he’s never going to be more than a swingman, or so Jason was told. I’m interested.
RHP Derek Lowe. Extreme groundballer needs a defense, and his early-season woes concern me
RHP Brad Radke. 31 but if you’re looking to stuff an inning-eating vet in the rotation, he’s a good bet to get 200 above-average innings in a year… but as an upgrade, what’s that do for the team?
(signed) RHP Jaret Wright.
Bullpen
CL: ?
Under contract: Hasegawa ($3.5m)
Candidates: Putz, Baek, Thornton, Sherrill, Atchison, Mateo, Nageotte, Taylor, Williams
May be brought back over our protests: Villone
DL: Guardado ($4.5m), under contract but likely out next year, Blackley, who has shoulder tendinitis” (which is medical for “we don’t know”), Rafael Soriano, who had TJ surgery and will miss next year barring something crazy happening.
Guardado supposedly will be back at some point this year, but I don’t think we’ll see him return.
How do you assemble a bullpen out of this? I don’t think it’s that hard if Mateo’s back to his form of last year, but a lot of these guys up from Tacoma seem like candidates to be the long-middle relief guys and not fill in traditional set-up/closer roles. Like I wouldn’t mind seeing Thornton pitching in that kind of a long relief role, but as a LHP set-up guy, I don’t see it. One of the qualities the M’s should look for in a new manager is the ability to assemble effective bullpens out of interesting pieces, like we’ve seen Cox/Scioscia and others do.
Upgradability: Huge. They could spend on a couple servicable reliable veterans on short-term deals and help patch this thing up.
FA upgrade candidates: Many
Offense
Part of the problem we’re going to have here is that this is a lot like a puzzle, and sliding a guy over means that someone else has to move. So bear with me.
Infield
C: Olivo
1B: Sexson/Ibanez ($3.75m)/Spiezio ($3.1m)/Jacobsen
2B: Boone ($9m)
SS: ?
3B: Beltre! Wooot!!
DH: Jacobsen
FAs that could leave: Wilson, Cabrera
Arb decisions: Bloomquist
Candidates: 3B Dobbs, SS-IF Jose Lopez
It’s not a sure thing that Lopez starts the season as the shortstop, though you’d think he’d have the advantage of incumbency by now. Dave has a long post about Jose Lopez and 2005 that’s worth reading.
As a unit, this is pretty weak. No matter where Spiezio plays, the team’s carrying a light bat. Ibanez doesn’t hit like a first baseban and fields like a bad one. But Leone at third isn’t a good solution — I don’t think Leone’s a bad one, if your alternative’s Spiezio, but he’s unlikely to be even a good 3B.
Did Boone get old in a hurry? Did he stop caring as much? Or is this just an off year? The Mariners will spend $8m to find out. If Boone turns in another HoF-style year, the unit’s redeemed, and if he stinks it up, it’s really bad.
Upgradability: huge, at SS and at 3B, but does Spiezio contract stop up the system?
FA upgrade candidates:
(signed — by the M’s!) 3B Adrian Beltre — young, will command a ton of money after this year, Dodgers seem committed to re-signing, and they’re rich
(signed) SS Edgar Renteria — 29, so not so old, premier shortstop talent
(signed) SS Nomar Garciaparra. NOMAHHHH!!! Would the M’s consider this? Even if the money was right? Even if he played for the minimum? Or is he too much of a clubhouse issue, which makes him unsignable? Nomar’s the kind of strange gamble the M’s need to look at if they’re going to return to winning before, say, 2006. 2007? Now I’m depressing myself.
(signed) SS Orlando Cabrera. Also 29, but I don’t see it.
(signed) 3B Troy Glaus. Same deal as Nomar, without the clubhouse baggage. Weird gambles, folks, let’s at least make this interesting.
(signed) 3B Corie Koskie. I’ve been convinced Koskie’s not a good buy by Dave’s arguments.
1B Carlos Delgado. Huge LH bat if he’s healthy, but he’s older, and these dudes don’t age well. Also makes the multi-headed LF/3B/1B problem worse unless the M’s pay someone to go away. I like him better than Sexson though.
(signed — by the M’s!) 1B Richie Sexson. Local boy, lots of power, right-handed pull-hitter not a good fit for Safeco. Injured.
C Jason Varitek. Team leader, catcher with pop, has great reputation. Also going to be 33. All downside.
Outfield
LF: Sexson/Ibanez/Winn
CF: Winn
RF: Ichiro!
FAs that could leave: Bocachica
Arb decisions: Bloomquist
Candidates: LF/CF Reed
Remote candidates: LF Snelling
I wanted to put Snelling in here somewhere.
Upgradability: High
FA upgrade candidates:
CF Carlos Beltran, in his prime, huge power/speed combination (which ages well), plays good defense, like Beltran likely to command top dollar on the market.
CO J.D. Drew, health and durability concerns dampen enthusiasm, but dude can hit. But the M’s have corner outfielders out the wazoo already
(added by Dave)
(signed) CO Richard Hidalgo. Inconsistent, but powerful bat and very underrated defender. A risk with huge upside.
(signed) CF Jacque Jones. Improves outfield defense significantly, offense is overrated, probably going to cost too much.
I don’t like Magglio Ordonez for health reasons, though cheap enough it’s worth trying.
Looking over that list, you can see that in many cases there are a couple ways the M’s can go: top-tier guy, wacky gamble, safe veteran. So here’re my predictions.
Mariners go into next season having done *nothing*: they get Pineiro back but it’s essentially the same team they’re fielding now: 70 wins.
Mariners fill the worst holes with Aurilia-style proven upgrades from the 2nd tier of talent and paying too much: 75 wins.
Mariners get creative, take strange flyers and risks: 70-85 wins.
Mariners spend like crazy for all the first-tier guys: 85+ wins.
That looks optimistic to me. But hey, I thought they’d win 85 this year.
Now, a caveat here: I didn’t look up a single projection to do this. That’s all eyeballing. All the FAs, all the rosters, I’ve typed this whole thing in 20 minutes, and to be frank, I’m tired, hungry, and my house is kind of cold. So be cool, and I’ll update this later.
Franklin
After last night’s complete game shutout, Ryan Franklin has his ERA back down to 5.03. He’s going to reach 200 innings for the second straight year, and if he can finish the season with an ERA under 5.00, the M’s might be able to deal him.
He’s got some pretty bizarre home/road splits, though. Take a look at this:
Split ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO Home 3.92 85.0 82 41 37 16 32 51 Away 6.01 97.1 122 66 65 15 26 39
Obviously, he’s getting a huge boost from Safeco Field, which masks the fact that he’s a replacement level pitcher. But at home, he’s a three true outcomes pitcher, giving up lots of walks, lots of homers, and posting a decent enough strikeout rate. On the road, he’s the antithesis, throwing strikes, not missing bats, and giving up less longballs.
Safeco rates per 9 IP:
HR: 1.69
BB: 3.38
K: 5.40
BABIP: .268Road rates per 9 IP:
HR: 1.39
BB: 2.41
K: 3.61
BABIP: .305
These are pretty bizarre splits. It doesn’t appear that he’s getting a boost from Safeco as much as he is from his defense at Safeco. The league average batting average on balls in play is about .300, so Franklin’s essentially getting a 3 % boost in not allowing hits at home. Whether that’s a park factor or the defense simply having a home field advantage, I have no idea.
Last year, Franklin was the beneficiary of tremendous defense behind him. This year, he’s gotten similar benefits but only while playing at home. When the team leaves Seattle, the defense has been league average, and he’s been exposed as a pitcher who relies completely on the contributions of his teammates.
In reality, the huge splits are probably explained away by sample size noise that would filter out over time, but it’s still interesting to me.
All Ichiro, All the Times
It’s Ichiro day over at the Times. Larry Stone, officially U.S.S. Mariner endorsed columnist, has a piece on Ichiro’s unlikely rise and a piece on how he does it. Stone’s the best thing going in Seattle sports writing, so enjoy the doubleheader of good content.
Aquasox sold
The Aquasox were sold to a lawyer from Ohio today. The Sperandios wish to be closer to their family. That’s a pretty popular reason for when baseball folks leave town around here. If they end up in Tampa, we’ll know something is amiss.
Fan Culture
Art Thiel takes on the notion that the Mariner fan base is still made up of more casual than normal fans and challenges management to change their organizational philosophy this offseason. It’s a good column, one that I’d expect most of you guys to nod and agree with. USSM readers have shown themselves to be in the 99th percentile of Mariner fans in dedication, knowledge, and interest. Linking to this column is essentially preaching to the choir.
But I’m not totally sure Thiel is right. Certainly, there are more fans invested in the teams success now than there were a few years ago and the explosion of the internet has allowed us all to congregate and unify, rather than seeming like outcasts in a sea of soccer moms. But I’m not sure we have the correct perspective to analyze the overall tenor of the fan base. Despite the team’s miserable collapse, they’re still drawing well enough to be the envy of most teams in baseball. I don’t think the M’s fanbase has sent the strong message to the M’s this year that Thiel’s column implies. There are certainly some disgruntled rebels in the mix, but they are far from the majority, or even a strong minority.
The M’s are one big free agent signing away from being back in the good graces of this city and they know it. Seattle wants to root for the Mariners. They want to believe. The organizaiton knows that bringing in Adrian Beltre or Carlos Beltran will give them the chip they need to sell hope to those sitting on the fence. They’re going to make a big splash in free agency, as much for the positive public relations as the ability to improve the club. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the M’s were this year’s Angels, buying several all-star players by simply outbidding the market.
But I don’t think the insuing assumption that there’s been an organizational shift will be correct. The M’s organizational philosophy has always been to cultivate a permanent hope in the casual fan, and those fans have not needed a big ticket acquisition to have that hope the past years. Now that it’s required to avoid alienating a part of that fanbase, the M’s will respond in turn. But the underlying organizational philosophies of fiscal responsibility and competitiveness every year aren’t changing (and I’m one of the few who feel this is a good thing). The M’s aren’t going to become the Baltimore Orioles, trying to spend their way to a pennant. But they will do what it takes to keep the majority of fans interested in the team, and that will entail a big free agent signing this winter.
If you’re in the “ownership will never spend what it takes” camp, expect to be pleasantly surprised, probably several times, the next few months. This is going to be the most fun offseason a Mariner fan has had in a decade.
Workloads
A bunch of commentors picked up on this in the previous Madritsch post and they’re dead on. Bob Melvin is managing the pitching staff like he knows he’s going to be fired. After tonight’s 123 pitch effort, coming on the heels of a 126 pitch effort, Madritsch is averaging 114.8 pitches per start. That leads the majors, folks. Here’s the list:
1. Bobby Madritsch, 114.8
2. Jason Schmidt, 114.4
3. Livan Hernandez, 111.5
4. Carlos Zambrano, 111.0
5. Barry Zito, 108.0
6. Joel Pineiro, 107.00
Now, it’s only over 8 starts and pitch counts in and of themselves aren’t evidence of overwork, but this is clearly not exercising any sort of caution. There’s absolutely no reason Bobby Madritsch should be leading the majors in pitches per start. None.
Everyone knows Melvin is gone at the end of the year. He knows it. If he’s going to manage the team with no interest in protecting the 2005 Mariners, he should be removed immediately.
Madritsch
I talked about his spectacular home run rate last week, but he’s just pitching lights out across the board right now. Take a look at his game log. After facing some pretty easy competition in August, he’s faced the White Sox on the road, the Red Sox, and now the Angels, and he’s going through them like butter.
He’s locked up a rotation spot for 2005. For all the talk about the upside Gil Meche has, I’ll take Madritsch as the most likely Mariners starter to pitch in the all-star game next year.
Ibanez to 1B
Good news from the Times.
After making his 2004 debut at first base Sunday, Raul Ibanez was back in left field last night, but he will see more playing at first in the final three weeks of the season.
Really, this is the right move. This opens up more playing time for Jeremy Reed and should mean less time for Spiezio and Bloomquist. I’m of the opinion that Ibanez should play first base for the remainder of his contract (assuming the M’s couldn’t unload him), and I’d prefer this to be a permanent move.