DMZ · October 21, 2004 at 10:13 am · Filed Under Off-topic ranting 

I’m back. Got sick there, sorry. Expectations guide to Hargrove up tonight, hopefully. Also, today’s my brother’s birthday — whooo! Good job on living another year there, Craig.

In more Mariner related news, tomorrow is the birthday of one Ichiro!


11 Responses to “Whooosh”

  1. Evan on October 21st, 2004 11:33 am

    Happy birthday, Craig!

    Happy birthday, Ichiro!

  2. Jim Thomsen on October 21st, 2004 11:37 am

    31 for Ichiro, right? It will be VERY interesting this winter to see what PECOTA comes up with for Ichiro in 2005. I suspect Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus will burn out about four computers trying to figure this one out.

  3. Dave on October 21st, 2004 11:54 am

    Like Bonds, Edgar, Clemens, and Johnson, Ichiro is just an outlier that there aren’t any comparisons for. It will probably project a big regression, which we can all safely ignore, because the program just doesn’t have the right data to decide what is likely for extreme cases like this one.

  4. Erich on October 21st, 2004 1:19 pm

    I remember when Craig was yay high to a grasshopper! Go on, DMZ, fellow Spring Glen Superstar!

  5. brain on October 21st, 2004 1:34 pm

    which one?

  6. Aaron on October 21st, 2004 1:53 pm

    If you want to talk outliers, take a look at Julio Franco’s projection. PECOTA must have thought he was going to be hit by a bus in spring training.

  7. Evan on October 21st, 2004 2:19 pm

    If nothing else, I expect PECOTA to push Ichiro’s Similarity Score down quite a bit for 2005. That will allow for much bigger error bars on the projections, so even if it again offers a weighted mean BA of .309, the 90th percentile will still be up around .390.

    So, my point is that while PECOTA still won’t be terribly useful at projecting Ichiro’s performance, at least PECOTA itself should start to recognise that and offer much softer predictions.

  8. Aaron on October 21st, 2004 3:11 pm

    There is another reason why next years projection should be better. PECOTA is based on the previous three seasons performance, with the third year weighted the most. Since Ichiro was coming off three straight years of decline, with the worst year getting emphasized, it made sense for PECOTA to be bullish. Next year, however,Ichiro’s projection is going to based on two decent years and then a great year, with the great year getting more weight, which should make for more optimistic projection.

  9. Lame-Ass Pundit on October 21st, 2004 4:29 pm

    Aaron, I think you mean “bearish.”

  10. Aaron on October 21st, 2004 4:43 pm

    Of course.

  11. Dr. Jeff on October 21st, 2004 5:23 pm

    Am I the only one who thinks that Bill Pecota should be the official endorser for PECOTA? I think of him every time I hear the word.

    I’ve obviously watched too much baseball in my life.