Guardado Returns

Dave · November 2, 2004 at 7:48 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Eddie Guarado took less than 24 hours to exercise his player option for 2005, an absolute no-brainer of a move, quite honestly. There’s just no way he was getting $4.5 million on the open market with the concerns about his health.

Also, Bret Boone and Ichiro were awarded gold gloves today, further cementing that honors place as the most ludicrous of all the hardware handed out.


50 Responses to “Guardado Returns”

  1. David J Corcoran on November 2nd, 2004 7:52 pm

    And I certainly welcome that extra million and a half.

    That will pick up Cabrera’s option! (not that I necessarily advocate paying Jolbert Cabrera 1.5 million)

  2. Conor Glassey on November 2nd, 2004 7:56 pm

    “…further cementing that honors place as the most ludicrous of all the hardware handed out.”

    I agree because of two words: Derek Jeter.

  3. David J Corcoran on November 2nd, 2004 7:58 pm

    Why the heck did Jeter win a gold glove? I am boggled by this.

  4. eponymous coward on November 2nd, 2004 8:07 pm

    Ichiro’s a ridiculous defensive player? Only if you mean ridiculously good.

    But yeah, Jeter and Boone…ugh.

  5. Tiboreau on November 2nd, 2004 8:10 pm

    Why the heck did Jeter win a gold glove?

    This probably had something to do with it.

  6. dave paisley on November 2nd, 2004 8:11 pm

    That’s *three* words – Derek “frickin'” Jeter

  7. Dave on November 2nd, 2004 9:31 pm

    Seriously, there are so many places to talk about the election, lets leave this as a haven for baseball talk, okay?

  8. Ryan L. on November 2nd, 2004 9:59 pm

    What I find interesting, is that with Jeter this year, and Palmeiro a fews years back, is that even the “casual” fan is seeing how worthless this award has become.

  9. ChrisK on November 2nd, 2004 10:36 pm

    I would consider us more knowledgable than casual fans. I think the casual fan looks at Jeter’s ESPN highlights and figures he must be a great defensive player. And most people don’t realize that Raffy won his gold glove playing 28 games at 1B. I still can’t believe that one happened.

  10. Adam S on November 3rd, 2004 1:21 am

    Some sportswriter (Bill James ?) pointed out that one of the problems with the gold glove is that its a plurality with open eligiblity. They never announce the vote totals; in fact they don’t say who votes (or how many voters) on the award in the articles I see. Jeter could reasonably have won with 25% of the vote.

    I concur with Dave that the voters don’t pay attention on this award. I’ve never done an analysis but the top criteria for winning seem to be HR, AVG, and who won last year. I still think Boone is an exceptional defensive second baseman, but he sure didn’t show it in 2004.

    Serious question on Jeter (because I’m not sure how to measure defense): is he merely below average, really bad, or the worst in the league?

  11. eponymous coward on November 3rd, 2004 1:26 am

    I’m wondering how bad Boone is. He did seem to wave at more balls this year…

  12. eponymous coward on November 3rd, 2004 1:27 am

    Oh, and thank you, Dave. I REALLY do not want more election news right about now.

  13. Pat on November 3rd, 2004 8:57 am

    Did Ichiro deserve it this year?

  14. Sub_Mariner Al on November 3rd, 2004 9:59 am

    hey Dave, i have another idea how the mariners can improve.. i heard that nomar is willing to change positions. If that is the case do you think he would be willing to play 3rd for the M’s? I m also interested in whats going down in colorado… is helton also available?… just some ideas. what do you think?

  15. TroutMaskReplica on November 3rd, 2004 10:10 am

    Sub Mariner: Two good questions. I wonder if a shift to third would appeal to Nomar. It may help him hold up better over the course of a season, and he certainly has the power to be a corner infielder. As far as Helton goes, that would certainly be an inquiry that I hope Bavasi makes…

  16. PositivePaul on November 3rd, 2004 10:14 am

    My question is — yes Boonie had a down year, but what 2B had a better year defensively? I’m not sure I can think of one — Belliard, perhaps? So, I’m okay with giving it to him, in spite of his decline.

    It’s Jeter that’s the travesty.

  17. Conor Glassey on November 3rd, 2004 11:11 am

    Nomar saying that he’s willing to change positions probably translates to: “I want to play second base for the Yankees.”

  18. Evan on November 3rd, 2004 11:24 am

    Orlando Hudson. Orlando Hudson should have been the 2B Gold Glover. Hands down.

    I’ve been hyping Hudson as the winner since July. Really no one else came close to Hudson this year.

    Check out Clay Davenport’s analysis:

  19. Dash on November 3rd, 2004 12:08 pm

    Meanwhile Tony Gwynn says that Jeter was “overdue” for a gold glove.

  20. Jerry on November 3rd, 2004 12:35 pm


    That commentary by Gwynn really demonstrated that he doesn’t have a clue what he is talking about. It was laughable. One more example of a ex-player who really shouldn’t be writing. Just because you can play a sport doesn’t mean that you know a lot about them, as Gwynn clearly shows.

  21. PositivePaul on November 3rd, 2004 1:01 pm

    Didn’t get a chance to watch much of Hudson. I’ll accept anyone, really, other than Soriano, of course, because I wasn’t paying much attention at 2B.

  22. bob mong on November 3rd, 2004 1:13 pm

    According to MGL, Boone was the best 2B in the AL this year.

  23. Dash on November 3rd, 2004 1:21 pm

    Jerry, I forgot to add a comment about the ‘wisdom’ of ESPN analysts but kind of forgot.

  24. John on November 3rd, 2004 1:36 pm

    Re: The Clay Davenport article [mentioned by Evan (# 18)]: what does the term “ratings” mean?
    E.g.: BRET BOONE 11/-13 ORLANDO HUDSON 37/16

  25. msb on November 3rd, 2004 2:25 pm

    “Meanwhile Tony Gwynn says that Jeter was “overdue” for a gold glove.”–Comment by Dash

    so just how many Yankee games *does* Gwynn see anyway, what with living in San Diego, and coaching all those Aztecs???

  26. DMZ on November 3rd, 2004 2:25 pm

    John: the first is runs saved above replacement (worst player at that position, essentially) and the second is runs saved above an average player at that position.

  27. paul mocker on November 3rd, 2004 3:12 pm

    Boone was the best 2b. If MGL says that I believe it. However, Mark Ellis was hurt and he is a better defensive player.

  28. paul mocker on November 3rd, 2004 3:30 pm

    I don’t know the methodology of Clay’s system but something is wrong when it states that Ichiro is not the best RF in the league. Look in the 2004 BPro annual and you will see what I am talking about.

    IMO, Ichiro can be considered among the greatest RF’s of all time with Clemente and Hooper. He makes it look so easy and he makes a mistake about as often as Wile E. Coyote oufoxes Bugs Bunny.

  29. DMZ on November 3rd, 2004 3:52 pm

    Clay’s system looks at team defensive performances and then essentially goes down and assigns credit or blame shares to players. The advantage of this approach is that it allows you to use it across eras and so forth, because it doesn’t require data that didn’t exist earlier.

    The disadvantage is that it isn’t fine enough. In rough, absolute terms, I think you can look at Clay’s fielding numbers and be confident they’re in the neighborhood — if someone’s reaally sucky, they’ll be bad. But what it doesn’t give you is the kind of specific evaluation you can try to make with play-by-play data.

  30. Evan on November 3rd, 2004 3:55 pm

    Davenport admits that his defensive ratings are pretty crude. I expect he’d assert that everyone’s defensive ratings are pretty crude. Defense is just really hard to measure.

    But I’ve always liked Clay’s defensive ratings – ever since I saw that he ranked Jeter as far below average as Ozzie Smith was above average.

    Paul – Clay’s system seems to react strongly to a change in adjacent personel. This year Jeter scored way higher than ever before, and the only real change was the addition of A-Rod to his right. Similarly, Ichiro’s weakest year by Clay’s ratings was last season, when he had two other CFs out there with him, so he might have been crowded by Cameron (ratings-wise). We just don’t know enough about measuring defense to be able to work out why these things happen.

    Clay ranked Ichiro as the best RF this year.

  31. paul mocker on November 3rd, 2004 4:02 pm

    USS Mariner is the best!

    Thanks for the explanations.

    As long as it is on my mind, Derek. Can you ask the Bpro crew to include EQA for each player projection in the 2005 Annual? Or please tell me who I could email with my suggestion. Thanks.

  32. DMZ on November 3rd, 2004 4:58 pm

    Email customer service @ BP, my good man, the contact link is at the bottom of the main page. Maybe elsewhere too.

  33. Joshua Buergel on November 3rd, 2004 5:04 pm

    Did you guys see that UZR ranked Winn third this year in the AL in CF, at +10, only one back of Hunter and Aaron Rowand? That’s pretty hysterical, really. MGL mentions it in that thread on Jeter.

  34. bob mong on November 3rd, 2004 5:07 pm

    By the way, my post wasn’t entirely clear: MGL calculates, and publishes, UZR rankings – Ultimate Zone Rankings, which are, indeed, play-by-play, extremely granular, park- and everything-adjusted defensive stats. I trust them more than anything else. The only problem is that you need pbp data so, obviously, you can’t make any historical comparisons.

    But defensive evals are so darn hard that, probably, the best method is to get a bunch of different ratings (BPro’s, Diamond-Mind’s, UZR, etc.) and average them somehow.

  35. bob mong on November 3rd, 2004 5:08 pm

    Er, make that Ultimate Zone Ratings…

  36. Paul Covert on November 3rd, 2004 5:24 pm

    Thanks for the MGL link, Bob. And I agree about trusting UZR (as a play-by-play based estimate) more than anything else, but not to the exclusion of other methods.

    MGL made a comment in the linked post about

  37. The Real Metz on November 3rd, 2004 5:25 pm

    Bret Boone I thought really lacked the sharpness that he had in previous seasons at 2nd Base. I thought Brian Roberts on Baltimore was much more deserving.

  38. Paul Covert on November 3rd, 2004 5:26 pm

    Oops, should have deleted that last line (decided not to address further issues in this comment after all).

  39. Dave on November 3rd, 2004 5:28 pm

    I’d agree with the general sentiment that we don’t have a great handle on defensive specifications; we can make general assumptions (Mike Cameron: Awesome), but when it comes to splitting hairs, we don’t have the necessary information. UZR is probably the best of the bunch, but I’m not totally sold on it either.

  40. David J Corcoran on November 3rd, 2004 5:29 pm

    OT, but we are not getting Deivi Cruz!!! WOOHOO!

  41. Adam on November 3rd, 2004 6:05 pm

    Jeter probably also won because people knew he had slipped defensively the past two year, and he played much better with the glove this year. And a few highlight plays will do it. For your ultimate example: Jim Edmonds over Mike Cameron. Edmonds is great at crashing into walls and making his hat fall off at just the right time. He also started getting Gold Gloves right about the time he made that big over-the-shoulder catch in Anaheim. But he can’t carry Mike Cameron’s jock defensively. Hell, he can’t even carry the receipt for Cameron’s jock!

    Glad to see Izturis get recognized, though – he’s deserved it since last year. As Vin Scully says, “he’s like a kitten playing with a ball of yarn.” The Dodgers DP combination truly warms your heart.

  42. Adam on November 3rd, 2004 6:11 pm

    p.s. re: Guardado, does anybody think the M’s might/should make a run at Troy Percival now that he’s available? I know ex-Angels haven’t been great for this team, but the M’s will need a closer, I’m not sanguine on the young guys, and there’s a great chance Guardado will be at sub-closer level when he gets back.

    I still think Percival can get it done, and even if he’s not great little, somebody might still take a gamble on him at midseason, and the term “trade bait” you can’t say about a lot of guys on this team.

    Percival relies too much on his fastball lately, which doesn’t have the zip it used to (though it still has plenty), but he also had trouble locating the fastball last year, which might be fixable. He also has a breaking pitch which is quite good. I bet Price could fix his location, get him to throw more curves, and I bet the motivation of getting dumped by the Angels would motivate him to get stronger and gain a few mph on his heater. Anyone?

  43. Conor Glassey on November 3rd, 2004 7:55 pm

    Adam –
    No, we definitely shouldn’t pursue Troy Percival. He’ll command at least $5 mil per season and will probably want a 2-3 year deal. Expensive 35-year-old relief pitchers aren’t who the M’s should target.

  44. eponymous coward on November 3rd, 2004 8:06 pm

    Agreed. We already have one overly expensive ex-Angel right handed former closer (Shiggy) who’s starting to look their age. Two is probably two too many.

  45. Adam on November 3rd, 2004 8:43 pm

    Yeah, I see your point, but you have to admit there’s a real difference between Shiggy and Percival. Percival can close (Anaheim’s pushing out the door because they want K-Rod to close; the M’s, as you may have noticed, do not have a K-Rod), plus Percival’s a strikeout pitcher who doesn’t rely as much on his defense to bail him out as Shiggy does. Anyways, it’s a pipe dream: Percival will probably get snapped up by another team for more than the M’s can afford, but if he doesn’t, and the M’s can get him fairly cheap for a shorter-term deal, why not? Percival’s definitely not washed up, and I could see him being a big help. Plus, he’ll still be dealable next season once some other closer’s arm falls off. I just think AJ Zapp is not a plan.

  46. PositivePaul on November 4th, 2004 12:52 am

    Hmm – that’d be interesting. The PCL strikeout king converted to closer…

    I bet you likely meant JJ Putz.

    I’d like to see Aaron Big Country Taylor healthy and given a shot if Everyday ends up being laid up. He’s a decent closer with good, but inconsistent, stuff. Better closer’s material than Putz’

    That said – I’d be OK with Percy to shore up the ‘pen & as insurance on Eddie – at a reasonable price…

  47. Conor Glassey on November 4th, 2004 1:34 am

    Whether Guardado’s 100% or not, Percival will not be worth the risk. He’s just too expensive and too old. Plus, check out these K/9 rates for the past 4 seasons: 11.08, 10.86, 8.76, 5.98…not so hot. There also seems to be a big misconception that it takes a flame-thrower to be an effective closer or accumulate saves, and this is simply not true. Personally, I’m a big believer of building bullpens on the cheap, so, in my opinion, spending big bucks on 35-year-old “proven closers” is just asking for trouble. Add to the fact that the M’s have much bigger holes to fill and it’s just not a good idea any way you spin it.

  48. Michael on November 4th, 2004 12:44 pm

    One idea that is beginning to appeal to me is to have Moyer in the bullpen. This is some kind of crazy Tim Wakefield as temp closer kind of thing. My, admittedly, smewhat sketchy theory is that Moyer showed last year that for small pitch counts he was as difficult to hit as anyone, but at the higher pc’s of a starter he was getting into trouble and giving up hits etc. I appreciate he is not a strike out pitcher, but surely the amount of work looking at closers have shown that no one type is any more effective than another? Or maybe as a lefty setup? Or hot dog salesman? OK, just an off the cuff thought.

  49. JPWood on November 5th, 2004 3:00 am

    Talking about the BP, this from The Stone in today’s ST:
    “Longtime Mariners reliever Norm Charlton confirmed yesterday that he had contacted Price and Seattle GM Bill Bavasi to express an interest in the bullpen coaching job.”
    Why not? Putting Charlton, Guardado and Madritsch together would be a welcome attitude boost.

  50. Conor Glassey on November 5th, 2004 6:36 am

    JPWood –
    Yeah, but the top of the article said: “Longtime Mariners instructor Jim Slaton, who had left the organization recently to become San Diego’s Class AAA pitching coach, was named Seattle’s bullpen coach yesterday.”