Sexon AND Delgado, yay!
Jim Street’s latest at MLB.com has it happening. And in case you thought he might get through it without saying something implausible:
Think about that. Sexson and Delgado in the middle of Seattle’s lineup. All of a sudden, a team that hit the fewest home runs and scored the fewest runs in the American League last season looks like a Murderer’s Row.
A historically great offense, wow! Like the Yankees of the 30s!
Best-case Recreation of Best Previous Year Jim Street Memorial Mariners Murderer Row:
Richie Sexson (2003) : .272/.379/.548
Raul Ibanez (2002): .294/.346/.537
Carlos Delgado (2000): .344/.470/.664
Bret Boone (?)(2001): .331/.372/.578
Wow, that suuuure is powerful. Except that relative to the rest of baseball, the best of those isn’t close to Ruth’s 1927 season, which makes Boone’s 2001 look like Boone must have been hitting with a wet noodel. Or Gehrig’s season, which was equally good.
Even Earle Combs and Bob Meusel, who get short shrift, beat the best of the M’s. Combs put up a line in 1927 where, relative to the league, he was as good as the career years of *any* of the M’s players. Meusel was as good in 1927 as Ibanez had ever been.
The only way I can come close to expressing this in modern terms: the 1927 Yankees had two Barry Bonds performances backed by Albert Pujols and David Ortiz.
And while we can argue a little about what our metrics for relative comparison is, no matter what you choose, it totally neglects the issues of injury, effectiveness, and how slim the chances that all four of those guys would put up career lines.
Adding Sexson and Delgado at their best wouldn’t make a Murderer’s Row. Next season’s lineup would be more like a snowball fighter’s reading club.
Comments
76 Responses to “Sexon AND Delgado, yay!”
So long Bucky, we hardly knew ye.
Sexson = An extremely overpriced Gorman Thomas. Bucky = Reasonably priced Gorman Thomas. Wo-ha haaaaa
God, this is mindnumbingly stupid. Um, where are we playing these people? Oh, yeah, in spots where we might already have a productive player or two…
Am I missing something here? Isn’t this article saying all the same things we have been hearing but have yet to actually see go through. I refuse to believe that the M’s are stupid enough to actually sign both of these guys. I think they are working on Delgado as a back-up plan in case Sexson falls through (and i think we all hope that happens). Why is it that i keep hearing from 50% of the sources that we have the best offer on the table to Beltre but the other 50% of the sources make absolutely NO mention of the M’s & Beltre. Confused!!!
This isn’t anything new from what we’ve already been hearing/reading the past day and a half……..
OK, this is nice. But real baseball teams need starting pitching (we don’t have a rotation yet) and a SS that can play major league defense (don’t tell me Jose Lopez is the answer to that). Assuming we get Sexson, I don’t see how we can sign Delgado and solve these other issues. Does anybody else? Beltre is too young and good to pass on. If we can get him, we should, and then still sign a SP and maybe go with Santiago at SS. He can’t hit, but seems to be the real deal defensively. Thoughts?
with all, i agree. where do we play them? sexson will kill his shoulder at some point in the outfield. Bucky will lose playing time before we even know just what he is capable of. We won’t have money to get beltre. or clement. or any pitcher, for that matter. welcome back ron villone!
he guys,
Look what has been written:
It is one slugger nearly down, and possibly one on the way for the Mariners.
So, what’s new? Just like missing the state lotery because you had a 12 rather than a 13 as the sixth number. let’s first see the actual signing!
#6: I’ll take my chances with Lopez at SS…..Santiago shouldn’t even be on the roster in 2005.
If the Mariners have shifted their organizational philosophy to overparying for over the hill sluggers in the dwindling days of their careers to satisfy the public perception of meeting the free agent status quo they should tear down Seahawks Stadium and rebuild the Kingdome. I am sure the taxpayers of King County would be more than happy to flip the bill.
Gosh darnet! Why both? Both = No Beltre which means no 3rd basman.
Maybe we can trade for Julio Franco.
Isn’t he almost as old as the ’27 Yankees?
I’ve read that in the 1950′s, a reporter interviewed Ty Cobb and asked what he thought he’d hit against the pitchers of that time. About .300, Cobb replied. “Only .300?” “Yeah, but you have to take into consideration that I’m over seventy years old.”
Apply this reasoning to the Murderer’s Row comparison however you like….
The M’s fans will form their own Murderer’s Row after next year’s 67-95 season.
This is just more of the same crap from Street. I agree with ‘Where’s Rusty Koontz?’ that this is just too stupid for the M’s to really consider. If the Sexson rumors are real, I have to think that it is a response to unrealistic salary expectations from Delgado, not as a real plan to get both.
I agree with most of the people who see Sexson as a bad move, but it really could be worse. If they do turn their attention to Beltre (and all signs point to the M’s being at the forefront of the bidding), it would give them two good power hitters for the middle of the lineup. I doubt that they would be able to go after a starter unless they moved a lot of salaries, but they could put together a good team with one or two nice trades.
The quality of this move also really depends on how much they paid for Sexson and for how long. Some of the rumors are for 3 years, 33 million, which is too much but not idiotic like some of the other moves going down. If they spent 48 million over 4 years, there really is no way to justify that.
It all really depends on the other moves they make. If they sign Sexson, Beltre, and added a few other small pieces (bench and/or bullpen), then I would be OK with it. Not ideal, but not Koskie. If they signed Sexson, Beltre, a starter, and got another solid player though a trade, it could work out well. Sexson is a risk, but there really is no way to know that he won’t come back to his 2003 performance. All free agents are a risk. Sexson is higher risk than someone like Beltran or even Delgado, but Sexson is also more likely to outperform his salary (assuming it is in the 10 million range), and will not command as long a commitment as someone like Beltran, Beltre, or Drew.
Although people bring up the Shawn Green comparison, this has to be seen as the pessimistic projection. Besides, Sexson will be getting paid far less than Green, and it is not like Green is Chan Ho Park. The guy hit 28 HRs last year.
All in all, this rumor is not the best move the team could make, but it is not Spiezio- and Aurillia-style idiocy. Really, it depends on the specifics of the deal. While I agree with Dave and others on this blog that guys like Drew, Beltre, and Clement would have been better moves, with Ibanez at 1B, it could be worse.
So, if this gets done by Saturday, are you going to pass out pitchforks and torches at the Feed? I can’t go, but I’d join the march for sure.
The M’s need a centerpiece to build around for a long, long time. Neither Sexson nor Delgado are that guy. One of them certainly would be a nice complimentary piece, sure, but neither of them should be the centerpiece. Beltre, Beltran, or possibly Drew are the only three on my list that would be centerpieces.
Murderer’s Row, if that’s what they’d call adding Sexson and Delgado to our existing pieces, would really be DL Lane. Having Spiezio/Leone at third would cancel out one of these guys’ bats. WTF do we do with 3+ slugging first basemen???
Let Sexson go to Baltimore. Sign Beltre, Delgado and Drew. Pick up a MOR pitcher via trade for Winn. Call it a good off-season.
Am I the only one who’d rather see Ibanez in LF than Sexson? Would we get more in trade for Ibanez than Winn? WTF do we need a LF anyway? Where does Bucky end up?
This is beginning to become a disaster of Titanic proportions. Asinine!
BUT, in the end, I’d MUCH rather the M’s take a risk with Sexson than just pocket the money or spend it on Robert Fick and Jeremy Burnitz.
(and BTW, Derek, in the title it should be SEXSON, though I’ll forgive you because you didn’t spell it “SEXTON” like so many other people…)
DMZ,
One of my pet peeves is people spelling Sexson “Sexon,” or “Sexton.” Actually, it’s probably one of yours too. Anyway, change the heading on this thread, and we’ll all be happy. You have it spelled “Sexon.”
Just like the old days!
“Am I the only one who’d rather see Ibanez in LF than Sexson?”
This is like preferring tendonitis as opposed to a torn ACL, but, no, you’re not the only one…
What are the odds that Street’s piece is a story plant to drive Boras down on Beltre?
LOL Kevin Mitchell
#21, drive Boras down on Beltre? HAHAHAHAHA. HAHA. HA.
The only pressure on Boras right now is whether he wants to take the highest offer on the table (M’s) or wait for something else to come along.
I’ve had a myriad of computer problems over the past couple of months. Hopefully things are fixed soon. Until then, I’m relying on school computers.
Sexson and Delgado is a monumentally stupid decision, a gigantic waste of resources, and exactly the kind of stupid stuff we’ve come to expect from a poor organization.
But I don’t expect it to happen. This leftfield stuff doesn’t pass the smell test. For one thing, we already have a leftfielder, and, unlike Sexson, he can actually play leftfield.
And I sincerely doubt that Delgado’s going to want to DH every day. He might, I don’t know. But I suspect that Baltimore’s going to be more willing to give him money to be an everday first baseman.
Beltre, Sexson, and Delgado? Is this a possibility? Maybe. I don’t really know. I could stomach Sexson and Delgado if it means that we don’t have to give up on Beltre. Otherwise, no deal.
I’d prefer to see Beltre and Beltran, but that ship has sailed.
BUT, in the end, I’d MUCH rather the M’s take a risk with Sexson than just pocket the money
OR, they COULD just reduce salary one year and bank it for the next year.
Or trade for Andruw Jones (who I don’t understand the hate for- this is a CF like Cammy, who UNLIKE Cammy is on pace for 500 HR’s by his late 30′s, and $13.5 million for Gold Glove CF’s is pretty cheap when Glaus is pulling down $11 million).
etc., etc. And heck, if they pocketed the money and didn’t do anything, they couldn’t use “oh, we’re paying too much for Sexson to be on the DL to make major moves in 2006″.
Was comparing Sexson to Gorman Thomas supposed to be an insult? Because if we just bought 4 years like Thomas had in Milwaukee (’78-81 would be nice), we shouldn’t hope Sexson fails his physical, we should hope the doctors figure out a way to clone him. Bucky is no comparison: Thomas’ best 5 years with the Milwaukee Pilots (age 28-33) he avg’d 35 homers, avg. 144 games, put up OBPs over .340 4 times, and slugged over .500 4 times. As good as Bucky is (and I love the guy), he has done none of the above, and would be hard-pressed to do it once, much less do it that well for 5 years given his injury history. Sexson has a much better history of consistent performance.
If Sexson’s injury is relatively better than Shawn Green’s, as everyone seems to agree on, it’s pretty good news, b/c it means A) his power won’t be that diminished (Green’s problem is a hitch in his swing, not a loss of strength); B) his recovery time will be much shorter (Green only rounded back into form in the second half last year, almost 12 mos. after the surgery + 3-4 months of playing on the injury), and still managed to hit 28 HR in Dodger stadium.
And if you’re still looking for some good news inside the “bad news” here, doesn’t it suggest that Randy Winn is on his way out? If Delgado’s at first, Sexson’s in left; and if Sexson’s in left, then either Reed or Winn is the odd man out. Since Reed hits better, costs less and wasn’t the subject of trade rumors, then the chances seem good they have a deal to move Winn, right? That must make some people on this board happy. Ichiro!, Reed, Sexson, Delgado, Boone, Bucky, Ibanez, Spiez, Olivo, Lopez. As long as those guys keep taking their glucosamine, it shouldn’t be a boring season.
Could the Mariners invest the money in the stock market or something? Or maybe buy some gold coins or something. I heard gold is supposed to be going up. I wouldn’t waste it on either of these two bums but the public perception is the Mariners have to add some pop to their lineup so they are going to go waste it and doom the Mariners for many years to come.
OR, they COULD just reduce salary one year and bank it for the next year.
Ha!
Oh wait, you’re serious?
I’ve learned not to trust these guys with the money. I’d rather they spend it on Sexson than waste it on Spiezio. I’d rather they spend it on Beltran, to tell you the truth, but I just don’t see that happening.
No excuse is too stupid for the Mariners to use. Believe me, if they hadn’t sucked so much last year, they would have no reason to stop from fudging the numbers and spending $10 million on scrubs to make it look like they kept payroll constant.
I don’t have a problem with Gorman Thomas. He was a good ballplayer I just have a problem with the Mariners paying over 10 million a year for someone that is probably at best going to put up Gorman Thomas like numbers when Thomas was with the Mariners.
Gorman Thomas did hit .215 with 32 homers in 1985. Not bad but I but Bucky could do that for 300,000
The real question is: Could anyone sport a ‘stache like Gorman Thomas though. Come on now, you know everyone was envious of ‘stache back in the day.
#25 – re: andruw jones. He’s no cameron. While cameron posted zone ratings of ~ .920 in his last three years in seattle, and .868 last year, jones came in at .888, .876, .840, and .836 the last four years. The same trend and comparisons hold true for range factor also. not the perfect stat, but it shows a consistent downward trend, which corresponds to what scouts have been saying about him the last couple of years (if you trust sportscenter reporting). for some comparison, randy winn had an .888 zone rating in center field last year and a better range factor (2.92 – 2.67). Also, though still a good hitter, his OPS has declined the last two years. Jones seems to be just coasting on his fat contract. He is still 27, but he should be improving, not declining, heading into his supposed prime years. Not the risk we should be taking. but then, neither is sexson.
And while we’re on the subject of underachieving power hitters in M’s history, I think I preferred Steve “Bye Bye” Balboni.
What is the deal with Sexson? Is he signed or not? It seems like the Seattle baseball writers have jumped the gun on this. I hope they go for it and try to sign the two Belts instead.
Now we’ve gotten to the point of starting to call these guys “two bums”. Let’s just take last years offense and go home then. Beltre wouldn’t come join our game so let’s just play Leone and Speizio.
Sheesh. No one can force our top choices to come here. Either you risk and win or maybe lose; or don’t risk (thereby risking more as the M’s proved last year) and just lose. I prefer giving my team a shot if I’m running them.
And besides, there is no reason they can’t get more than those two. Their salary cap is nothing of the sort. It is a choice. Money is not stopping them from going after more. Would you guys be okay if 3 marquee bats joined the fray?
#35 – I don’t think that the people’s concerns are with the names of the players or even as much who the players are. It’s more about their age and their contract value and length. Bavasi said that he was looking for players that could help out for several years to come. I don’t think everyone agrees that Sexson and Delgado are that caliber of player due to their age and/or injury concerns.
If Sexson’s injury is relatively better than Shawn Green’s, as everyone seems to agree on
I’m pretty sure everyone doesn’t agree on that, actually.
A) his power won’t be that diminished (Green’s problem is a hitch in his swing, not a loss of strength)
I hate comments like this, honestly. You have no idea if this is true, but state it like an absolute fact.
B) his recovery time will be much shorter (Green only rounded back into form in the second half last year, almost 12 mos. after the surgery + 3-4 months of playing on the injury)
More speculation.
and still managed to hit 28 HR in Dodger stadium.
Green hit .266/.352/.459 last year. Using his home run total to attempt to cover up the fact that he took about a 50 percent cut in productivity is just spin.
Since Reed hits better (than Winn)…
Randy Winn hit .286/.346/.427 in Safeco Field against major league pitching. He hit .314/.374/.469 on the road. Reed hit .288/.363/.437 in Triple-A last year.
There’s no way Jeremy Reed is a better hitter than Randy Winn right now. Maybe in 2-3 years. But not next year.
Let’s not forget Richie Zisk, either, when harkening back to one dimensional boppers brought in after their salad days.
Although adding BOTH Sexson and Delgado would add serious punch to the M’s otherwise woefully anemic batting order, don’t forget the M’s long tradition of going two steps forward and one step backward (or three, sometimes). Just when we could see the M’s making some headway, we might learn that Boonie has been shipped somewhere for budget reasons (to be able to afford those two), so all of a sudden the net gain would be much, much smaller. From my standpoint, adding those two would make Boonie that much more valuable, because the load would be spread around. Those two without Boonie (and his solid defense) would be a terrible mistake.
Alright, alright. I apologize for calling them bums.
one thing that’s shocking to me is that everybody is howling over sexson at 4/48, 12 per, while everyone is begging for Delgado, while he’s rumored to be asking 4/64. In my mind, sexson isn’t worth 12 per, but he’s worth that much more so than delgado is worth 17 per.
All in all, I’d still prefer Drew and Beltre.
Woo-Ha, Got All Ya Overpriced High-Risk Recently Injured Free Agents in Check!
#37 “There’s no way Jeremy Reed is a better hitter than Randy Winn right now. Maybe in 2-3 years. But not next year.”
Even if Reed isn’t a better hitter than Winn next year, he’s still likely to be a better center fielder (who’s worst than Winn?) and he’ll make less than 1/12 of Randy Winn’s salary. Can’t wait for tehm to get rid of Winn.
off topic but McLemore had an on-line chat at ESPN
http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=6770
I too hope the M’s aren’t that stupid. But I’m extremely distressed by the number of comments I’ve ready that indicate Beltre is a “back-up plan” after Sexson and Delgado. This leads me to believe that the M’s will only sign one slugger, and that Sexson is the first choice because he’s cheapest, followed by Delgado (a bit more), and then finally Beltre (more still). Never mind that these players are only separated by a couple million dollars per season at most, and that additional money buys you a great deal more in Beltre than you’d get in Sexson or Delgado.
And I disagree that Sexson at 12M per is better than doing nothing. No, the M’s won’t actually use the money they save in 2005 for the future, but at least the payroll room would (presumably) still be there for the next off-season, when hopefully they can do a bit better. Honestly, the one thing we know for sure from this off-season is that Guerrero last year was the bargain of the decade. Consider that Beltran will almost definitely end up with more, that Delgado and Beltre are very likely to get around the same kind of salary, and Sexson and Drew will probably be very close behind. The M’s could well end up paying Sexson and Delgado combined as much as Tejada and Guerrero make combined. How sick does that make you feel?
I am a bit confused by Derek’s post. I thought he meant we “INKED” both. But I cannot find any place to confirm that. If it is about the intention to get both, isn’t that the same old news we have been hearing the past few days? Did I miss something?
Um, e-coward, that’s not how the M’s operate. They don’t carry money over into the next season, you know. But then again, they don’t pocket the profits, either. So, somehow this money vanishes anyway. I’d much rather have it spent on a vastly risky player than disappear into oblivion.
Obviously, I believe the money could and should be spent a lot more wisely. I’m not counting on the FO making wise decisions, but I’d be a lot more open to them spending money foolishly than that money just disappearing all together.
Santagio is not the answer at short. At least the M’s don’t think so. He was removed from the 40-man roster. Sorry folks. Methinks management is hanging their hopes on Lopez.
I’ll believe it when I see a Mariner press conference.
After all, weren’t we supposed to be seeing Sexson in Marine n’ Teal standing on a podum right now?
Certainly there were worse options for the Mariners this season :
Chucky A: “We envision Koskie and Burnitz batting 3 and 4 in our order… Much needed power… Veteran leadership… Blah blah blah.”
I’ve got my fingers crossed, but don’t start bawling till the cards fall.
P.S. There sure are a heck of a lot of U.S.S. Mariner readers named Adam.
#44: How do you get to the assumption that Beltre is the M’s 3rd choice when they are rumored to currently have the highest offer on the table for the guy?
I still don’t see the M’s signing BOTH Sexson and Delgado……despite the rumors it just doesn’t make sense. I’d prefer Delgado over Sexson because of his left handed bat, but his reported demands of 4/$64 are ridiculous, thus he’s not going to be signing any time soon.
Thus, a Beltre/Sexson offseason is actually a pretty good outcome.
Drew would be a nice option if he wasn’t asking for a 5 year guaranteed deal. I mean if there was anyone on the Free Agent market who was a bigger injury risk than Glaus it has to be JD “China Doll” Drew. What does anyone around here think the chances are that Borass and Drew are going to accept an incentive laden deal? Slim to none? lol!
#44. If the M’s pay Sexson and Delgado the same as Tejada/Vlad, that would make me very sick. But the more I think about it, the more I can’t see the M’s doing it for that very reason (it would mean admitting their penurious ways of the past were wrong). Too cheap to do the right thing in the past, so too cheap to spend the same amount now to get less.
Good point, Brian in #44 — this contract will shackle the M’s for 4 years. But it’s not like there’s any other bats becoming available after next season, nor in 2007. Piazza? B. Giles? I’d rather have Sexson, even at 90%, in some ways…
Sexon at 90% would still be a good bat, but with his shoulder injury, I fear its not a question of 100% or 90%, but 90% or 0%.
The problem is that if you take Sexson at 90%, you also must account for the Safeco effect when projecting his productivity. Although Dodger Stadium cuts down scoring, it’s not a terrible park for home runs (I don’t have the numbers handy), so as awful as Green’s power outage has been since his shoulder injury — second half last year notwithstanding — Sexson might be even worse in Safeco, assuming his injury has similar effects. I’m not saying his injury is perfectly comparable, and I don’t think anyone knows the answer to that question for sure. $12 million for a .265/.360 with 25-30 homers from a first baseman is unbelievably steep.
#49: There have been conflicting reports of an offer made by the M’s to Beltre. Supposedly the M’s have made offers to all three players, but we all know there’s no way in hell they sign all three, so clearly some of those offers aren’t firm, or they have contingencies in them regarding other players. I’m far from convinced that the M’s won’t be pulling other offers off the table if Sexson signs. I know, I know, “patience”, but mine is wearing thin as I continue to read the same sort of disturbing reports I saw last off-season, none of which fill me with confidence. The fact that a move makes no sense whatsoever doesn’t mean it isn’t plausible. Trading away Carlos Guillen made no sense whatsoever, signing Spezio to a 3-year deal made no sense. So just because the M’s are working with a bigger budget doesn’t mean they might not just blow it that much worse with something as crazy as Sexson and Delgado. I sure hope it’s not true, but I’m not going to write it off just because it’s stupid. I won’t be able to do that until the M’s FO shows me that they’re smart enough to abvoid dumb moves, and that hasn’t happened yet.
Does anyone know what the M’s total committed salaries for 2004 were just prior to the FA signing period last winter? As horrifying as the idea of paying Delgado and Sexson more per year than what Tejada and Vlad got is, I think the M’s had a total committed salary number much higher at this time last year than they do now. Even though they would have been relative bargains, signing Tejada and Vlad never would have happened because it would have pushed them way over “budget”.
This is crazy talk about Sexson. This team is not one good player away, it isn’t even two good players away. So to invest $48 million or $50 million or whatever the actual offer is, in someone who is 30 years old and had a major injury that in other players has been a permanent debilitating injury is stupid. Plus to top it off, he’s right handed. I just want to know what to do when the team you root for has piss-poor management and seems destined to losing seasons until the management is gone. Because I don’t want them to lose so I’m not going to root for failure simply so Bavasi and company will go, so what do you do?
Don’t leave out Willie Horton, the original M’s basher!
Not a big deal but Richie Zisk was not a “one-dimensional bopper” like Steve Balboni. His first year with Seattle — 1981 — he was 32 years old and posted an OPS+ of 140 (311/366/485). Yes, he was one-dimensional in that he was a DH only because of his 2 terrible knees. But he was a pretty productive hitter and earlier in his career, before his knees went, he was a very good player — a solid hitter and at least an average outfielder.
OK, you can go back to your discussion now.
James, you bring up a good, albeit terrifying, possibility. What if Bavasi actually is Woody Woodward in disguise? I’m just waiting for him to pull off the mask, a la Mission Impossible, and cackle, “I’m backkkkkk!” (HA! Two movie references in one post!)
#54: There have been conflicting reports regarding the M’s and every free agent they have been reported to be after.
Do the M’s have contingencies built into their offers to the players they’ve sent offers to? Probably, any smart organization would have those things included when they have 4-5 offers pending with agents at one time……however the logical assumption would be the offers to Sexson and Delgado are probably contingent on one or the other and the offer to Beltre is completely separate.
Everyone will believe what they chose to believe during these times of rampant rumors and false reports and yes the M’s haven’t done anything in their history of free agent signings to give anyone much hope, however these aren’t your Grandpa’s M’s.
Richie is from the area.
Richie is tall so he will have club house presence and leadership.
Richie has a catchy name, just like Bucky, Boonie, Danny, Willie…
Media will downplay the risk. M’s will pay whatever he asks. It is done deal.
#55: No question the M’s couldn’t have fit Tejada and Guerrero into their budget last year. But considering the value of those players, perhaps their budget was just a bit too short-sighted. I said so at the time, if ever there was a time to exceed the budget by just a bit (and we’re only talking a couple million more for Guerrero over Ibanez + Spezio + Winn), and go with a star-and-scrubs solution, it was last Winter with Vlad available for a reasonable amount, and several large contracts coming off the books the next year. In fact, after Sasaki’s money came off the table, they’d have been on or under budget.
The main point is that the M’s are now likely to overpay a marginal star with high risk this season because they failed to capitalize on a good buyer’s market a year ago. If they can’t sign Beltre or Beltran, or maybe Drew, I’d honestly prefer they just took a pass and preserved budget room for a time when it could be put to better use. The M’s aren’t going anywhere in 2005 anyway, so why cripple the 2006-2008 teams by overpaying a past-prime-injury-prone second-tier star?
#61 – Richie? how about Sexy.
If the sox were going to trade manny and a team was willing to take on the contract without any extra money, would the redsox toss in 1 or 2 top prospects?
I had an idea floating around my head during my final today.
“The main point is that the M’s are now likely to overpay a marginal star with high risk this season because they failed to capitalize on a good buyer’s market a year ago. If they can’t sign Beltre or Beltran, or maybe Drew, I’d honestly prefer they just took a pass and preserved budget room for a time when it could be put to better use. The M’s aren’t going anywhere in 2005 anyway, so why cripple the 2006-2008 teams by overpaying a past-prime-injury-prone second-tier star?”
WORD! WORD! WORD!
Dave – We can disagree, but what I said wasn’t baseless:
1) “If Sexson’s injury is relatively better than Shawn Green’s, as everyone seems to agree on”
This is the consensus from everyone I’ve read who’s compared the two injuries. I have looked for the evidence, and found nothing conflicting, so how you can blame me for using “everyone” to mean “everyone I’ve read” makes no sense, unless you’re expecting omniscience on the part of your posters.
“I’m pretty sure everyone doesn’t agree on that, actually.”
Not even my point. More amazingly, after calling me ignorant for looking for the evidence and citing what I found, you refute it with…assumptive speculation. That’s dirty pool.
2) “A) his power won’t be that diminished (Green’s problem is a hitch in his swing, not a loss of strength)
I hate comments like this, honestly. You have no idea if this is true, but state it like an absolute fact.”
No, it’s not fact, but it is the opinion of a friend of mine who’s front office with an AL team, and a former player/scout/agent and has attended every Dodger home game in the last 10 years. Unless you’re awaiting the results of a randomized clinical trial studying a sample of 500 Shawn Green shoulders this will always be a matter of opinion, anyways, not fact.
3) “B) his recovery time will be much shorter (Green only rounded back into form in the second half last year, almost 12 mos. after the surgery + 3-4 months of playing on the injury)
More speculation.”
OK, I should have said “may” instead of “will,” but the evidence for this is pretty solid. Green copped to playing on his injury for 3-4 months 2 seasons ago, and his hitting was greatly improved after the ASB last season. A 12-month recovery window for surgeries of this type is also pretty common. Green also altered his swing to adjust for the injury that year (he hit few home runs but a ton of doubles), and it took him some time to readjust after the surgery.
4) “and still managed to hit 28 HR in Dodger stadium.
Green hit .266/.352/.459 last year. Using his home run total to attempt to cover up the fact that he took about a 50 percent cut in productivity is just spin.”
My point was that Green was a much better hitter in the second half, so it was about half-season splits, not his full-season production. Come on and at least respond to the points I’m actually making.
On that note:
Green in April May June:
.382 .487 .869
.293 .350 .643
.346 .385 .731
Green in July August September (Oct excluded for only 8 games)
.356 .533 .889
.373 .535 .908
.374 .485 .859
So are you trying to argue First Half Shawn is the same as Second Half Shawn? Be my guest.
5) “Since Reed hits better (than Winn)…
Randy Winn hit .286/.346/.427 in Safeco Field against major league pitching. He hit .314/.374/.469 on the road. Reed hit .288/.363/.437 in Triple-A last year.
There’s no way Jeremy Reed is a better hitter than Randy Winn right now. Maybe in 2-3 years. But not next year.”
I see your point, but you’re replying to a speculative point with what looks like more speculation. Reed five years ago wasn’t as good a hitter as Winn, either, but that’s not the point. Since this clearly a dispute that can’t be resolved with numbers alone, how about we settle this like gentlemen: I’ll wager Reed hits better than Winn next year, and you’re welcome to join in on Winn’s behalf. Deal?
Yes, I agree. Sexson at four years and $50 million is stupid. BUT Delgado at $17 million per for three years is stupid ALSO.
This is the consensus from everyone I’ve read who’s compared the two injuries. I have looked for the evidence, and found nothing conflicting, so how you can blame me for using “everyone†to mean “everyone I’ve read†makes no sense, unless you’re expecting omniscience on the part of your posters.
To me, five seperate opinions, each lacking the knowledge to reach a conclusion, isn’t a consensus. It’s combined ignorance. My point all along was that Sexson’s shoulder is a giant unknown. I’m not arguing that its good or bad; I’m saying the only people who have any kind of insight are the Arizona team doctors. The same ones who decided that Troy Glaus was a better way to spend their money.
No, it’s not fact, but it is the opinion of a friend of mine who’s front office with an AL team, and a former player/scout/agent and has attended every Dodger home game in the last 10 years. Unless you’re awaiting the results of a randomized clinical trial studying a sample of 500 Shawn Green shoulders this will always be a matter of opinion, anyways, not fact.
I’m not ruling it out as a possibility. I will, say, however, that if he had a noticable hitch in his swing that could have been corrected without it being an injury problem, I’m almost certain the Dodgers would have noticed and corrected it. You cannot ignore the fact that this potential hitch was related to the shoulder problem, that the Dodgers knew about it, and that they didn’t correct it because it was directly related to his injury.
So are you trying to argue First Half Shawn is the same as Second Half Shawn? Be my guest.
No. I’m arguing that post-injury Shawn has been far less effective than pre-injury Shawn. Nothing more, nothing less.
I see your point, but you’re replying to a speculative point with what looks like more speculation. Reed five years ago wasn’t as good a hitter as Winn, either, but that’s not the point. Since this clearly a dispute that can’t be resolved with numbers alone, how about we settle this like gentlemen: I’ll wager Reed hits better than Winn next year, and you’re welcome to join in on Winn’s behalf. Deal?.
Predictions aren’t analysis. Winn could hit .380 next year, but that doesn’t mean I knew it was coming. It’s pretty clear that as of the end of the season, Randy Winn was a better hitter than Jeremy Reed. Historical trends tell us that this will likely continue to be true next year. If you’ve got some kind of valid reason for why you feel this case is an exception, feel free to throw it out there. I’d rather debate logical positions than place wagers.
After months of reading logical creative posts here and M’s paying no attention to public opinion have figured their strategy..
M’s do not have to have best hitters with Don Baylor as hitting coach M’s need big targets to get hit
Can’t have Sexson checking swings tearing shoulder. Imagine Baylor when 200 hitters bail on change-ups.
Plus big bodies will make our pitchers better as they will not fear to pitch inside with those enforcers coming out of the dugout. Alrigt game on.
Jones seems to be just coasting on his fat contract. He is still 27, but he should be improving, not declining, heading into his supposed prime years. Not the risk we should be taking. but then, neither is sexson.
I sure as hell like the risk of a 27 year old CF on pace for 500 home runs in his mid-30′s at $13.5 million (with no injury history, BTW) better than of a 30 or 32 year old 1B at close to that WITH an injury history.
Granted, I’d sign Beltre first, and think REAL hard about signing Beltran first given the choices, and I certainly wouldn’t lock into Jones- but if Jones is available, Christ, why WOULDN’T you consider him considering the prices on the FA market this year? What do you think’s more likely, Jones putting up a .275/30/100 line in 2008 at age 31, or Delgado performing well at age 36?
Dave RE Post #68 What is your friend in front office think the chances of M’s signing Beltre are? Thanks
Dave – Re:68, you’re right about predictions. Solid analysis reaches a conclusion based on real evidence. What ever happens after that can’t be used to judge the analysis.
It’s like looking at trades based on future performance. You have to judge each decision based on the information available at the time.
The higher the prices go on these guys, the more I say we should just focus on Beltre and fill in after we sign him…whenever that may be.
I don’t want Delgado at $15 million per season, but he’s not going to get that. Our offer of $11 million seems to be tops, and he’s not gonna get a nearly %40 increase over that offer, especially in light of us potentially signing Sexson. Beltre at $12 million per season is a great deal in this silly offseason, and we should try to make it happen.
WE ARE ALL FOOLS IF WE BELIEVE VICEGRIPHEAD BAVASAI IS TELLING US THE TRUTH.THE WORD ON THE STREET IN ANAHEIM IS HIS DADDY BUZZIE CALLED IN A FAVOR WITH ARMSTRONG TO GET THIS BUFFON THE JOB HE HAS DONE VERY LITTLE OF NOTHING YES THE GARCIA DEAL LOOKS TO BE OK OLIVO ???/REED A GOOD 2 WEEKS AND MORSE SUSPENDED FOR ROIDS TWICE .OK WINN WAS AVG FRANKLIN 2 YEARS HORRIBLE SPIEZIO BEYOND BAD IBANNNEZ MEDIOCRE AT BEST FOR THAT MONEY WINNS DEFENSE CRAP!!!!I SAW HIS NEW ASSISTANT BOLES ON A INTERVIEW FROM ANAHIEM I THINK THIS GUY HAS TERRETS AND I DONT MEEN THAT RUDELY BUT SADELY.I wish the mariners good luck but leadership starts at the top and armstrong howie and vicegriphead bavasai must go before this team becomes a winner!!!!!IM OUT MERRYXMAS TOO YOUALL
I’ve never posted before but #74… wow…
Good points, and I’d rather discuss facts as well. Glad we agree on that. I wasn’t trying to just spray uninformed opinions, just speculating and tieing together some information I’d picked up from a bunch of different sources, some factual, some anecdotal.
As for Green’s hitch, my friend didn’t bring it to the Dodgers attention until shortly before the All-Star break, but I also have no idea if they believed it, if they spoke to Green about it and tried to get him to adjust to it, or if Green heeded their advice. Green has kind of a reputation for doing what he thinks is best in spite of the advice of management anyways–playing on the injury being one example–the team did *not* want him doing that, and was understandably not thrilled when they found out. So it’s definitely a black box. My friend who noticed the hitch said he didn’t think Green had eliminated it even in the second half last season, so maybe he just felt stronger (which is also maybe not bad news for Sexson) or maybe something else entirely happened.
Do you know of any other similar injuries and how well hitters came back from them? An increased frame of reference would definitely help, but I haven’t anyone look at the examples of any other players.