Odalis Perez to Dodgers
I know everyone was on the Perez bandwagon, and I expect a lot of handwringing from people upset that we didn’t get him. However, 3 years, $24 million isn’t the bargain folks were hoping for, and I’m still concerned about Perez’s mechanics and durability. I wouldn’t have matched this offer either, and with LA going to $24 million, it’s likely it would have taken the M’s 3/$27 million to get him signed. They weren’t willing to go that high on Freddy Garcia, wisely I believe, and Garcia is a better pitcher.
It’s too much for Perez for this organization. If we were one arm away from contending, it’s a risk worth considering, but not for a team that still has a lot of question marks. They can find a suitable pitcher without throwing that much money at him.
Comments
108 Responses to “Odalis Perez to Dodgers”
Oh noes, Dave has become a mouthpiece for the M’s front office!
Just kidding Dave, clear-thinking analysis as always.
Lowe anyone??
Interesting question… Is Lowe going to be worth a risk? Our infield defense may be exactly the kind of thing that would help him. At the same time, he may be asking for a bit too much…
For what they’re paying Perez plus some spare change they could have had Beltre. Talk about a bad off-season!
The Mariners are fortunate to have good young pitching in their farm system so they don’t have to pay these rip-off prices for #2-5 starters. (Would you rather have Madritsch/Nageotte/King Felix or Billy Beane’s #3/4/5 of Haren/Blanton/Meyer?)
Dave Burba is still out there…
Yeah, too much. Walk way. The M’s have one more “major” move in them this offseason, and that’s to acquire a #2 or #3 starter that can eat innings and balance out the kids in the rotation (Piniero, Meche, Madritsch). Package Winn or Ibanez with prospect(s) and I think we can get this done much more reasonably…
Even though I agree that Perez isn’t one of the top pitchers in MLB, I do think he would be a valuable addition to the M’s. If it means overpaying him by $1-2 million/per, fine. I’m tired of the M’s NOT spending money. He was one of the best fits in Seattle on the market, even before everyone else signed. I’m not going to cry over this non-move, but I do see our huge need for a MOR pitcher and slightly loathe that we weren’t able to grab Perez.
I’m a little interested in Lowe, but more in the Ron Villone role (bullpen righty, emergency starter) or as Guardado insurance. I think he may be done as a starter, but I’d rather have him getting a start than Villone. He won’t come cheaply, though, and may not be worth the risk.
Who’s available via trade?
I’m not sure Derek Lowe would be a good pitcher if we were allowed six infielders. The last two years, he’s basically been about as good as Ryan Franklin. He’s not quite as bad as he showed last year, but he’s got huge name recognition and the clutch playoff performances greatly inflating his value. Boras was asking 4 years, $32 million earlier this offseason, and with Russ Ortiz getting that kind of money, I’ll be surprised if Boras backs off of that much.
I’d give him 1 year, $2.5 million with a team option for the second year. Obviously, he won’t be signing that deal, so we’re better off passing. The market for mid-tier starters has left the realm of reason this offseason, and the wise move is to acquire pitching through another method.
I’m tired of the M’s NOT spending money.
How did you manage to type that with a straight face?
Before Bavasi was hired, I was as much on the DePodesta for M’s GM bandwagon as anyone, but I really think he has lost his mind. Who would have thought Bavasi would have a better offseason than DePo?
How did you manage to type that with a straight face?
Well, I’m still at a 4 in my “splash size” score. The Pokey signing may bump that up to 4.5, but they still have money to spend (and really could use some pitching help). I mean, does anyone really believe that they don’t?
Why Stop Now?!?
#7 I’m tired of the M’s NOT spending money.
I know what you mean, I wish they would go out and spend almost double what a guy is worth for a injury prone 1B/LF power hitter….
oh, wait….
Sorry P. Paul, you posted your rebuttal before I got that one off.
If you want to argue that the team’s budget is not in line with team revenues, and that they should spend money that they’ve repeatedly said they have no will to spend (and that they claim doesn’t exist), then, yes, they still have money to spend.
If you’re willing to accept the fact that they have a well established payroll budget that puts them among the highest spending teams in MLB and they aren’t going to be exceeding that mark, than, no, they don’t.
Yelling about A) over and over is a great way to get yourself upset. B) is reality. They’re going to spend about $95 million on the team next year, and they’re basically there already.
PP sometimes money not spent is a better investment than money spent. Why overpay Perez, Lowe or yes even the undervalued Dave Burba (I’m kidding on that last one. No really I am.) Why go out and blow money on a free agent, when a cheaper and equvialent option could possibly be acquired via trade or is currently available in our farm system.
I agree, Dave. Even if Perez had been willing to sign with Seattle for 3 years, $24 mil, that would have been too much money. He’s not a #1 or even a #2, he’s a #3 starter. Yes, I realize the market this winter is such that #3 starters are getting $8 million a year, but that doesn’t mean the M’s have to pay it.
My thinking on this is that the M’s needed to overpay to get the hitters to come here because there are no power hitting prospects on the horizon that might surprise us in ’05 (or even in ’06). With pitching, you can bring up a kid or two and have them win a good share of games. If Felix Hernandez comes up in ’05 he might have a better year than Perez. If Nageotte or Blackley got straightened out someone like that could win 12 or so games.
As for Lowe, I’ve always wanted to have him back, so I’d be willing to go a bit higher than Dave, but Boras wouldn’t bite on my offer either. I’d give him $4-5 mil a year on a one or two year deal. Someone’s going to overpay quite a bit more for D Lowe.
I would rather NOT have Perez at that price and have that money available to combine with the Boone money next year and get a really good player next year. The Mariners were not going to contend this year and the difference between a $8 million dollar player and a $16 million dollar player is pretty much the difference between Perez and Vlad Guerrero. I’ll take the Guerrero, please. Speaking of which, does anyone know who the ’05 speculated FA’s are?
A honest question name me 10 legit #1 starters in all of basebal?
Actually, Dave, it’s a little of both A & B.
I’ve read that the budget is around $99 million. Indeed, they’re very close to that mark (but a trade of Winn/Franklin/Spiezio/Shiggy could certainly help that mark). I’m upset that our budget is slightly south of $100 million when Anaheim went north (and actually ended up paying luxury tax) for 2004. Looking at Jeff’s analysis over at L43 (and posted here), I’m indeed angered that we don’t even come close to spending the money on payroll that we can. But, like you said:
Indeed, that is the case. I’m trying to temper this, but I’m still upset. Again, that goes back to the flailings of 2001-2004. Ultimately the optimist in me says it’s entirely possible for the M’s to contend in 2005, and that they owe it to the fans to do whatever they can to do so.
I’m very thankful for Beltre, on the bubble with Sexson, and slightly thrilled (if not shell-shocked) that they actually did spend some money this offseason. I’m just saying that if Anaheim can add Colon, Guerrero, Guillen and Escobar to fill their holes before 2004 (however successfully, of course), we certainly have the financial resources to fill our holes before 2005. I’m so angry with the last 3-4 years, that it’s going to take a lot to really win me over. Indeed I’m gracious for what they’ve done so far, but I’m convinced they have the resources to do lots more.
Yes we have more games to make up in the standings to be back in contention in ’05 than Anaheim did after ’03. However, I attribute a lot of the losses to the (controversial) “intangibles” factor (i.e. things that we either can’t measure right now, or cannot be measured objectively period — and I know I’m going to raise a few hairs on that statement). None but the most optimistic thought we were a playoff team going into ’04, but as I recall no one (not even the sabermetricians, who I highly respect) predicted the M’s would lose 99 games, either.
Okay, now you can rebut my “weak” arguments — my skin is thick enough. I’m almost finished with Moneyball and by no means am a stathead yet. I’m inches away from ordering both BP 2005 and the Bill James book. Still, I’m a HUGE M’s fan, and have been for a long time. I’m certainly entitled to my opinion, however flawed it may be. And, I appreciate the knowledge you guys here have, both the USS Mariner staff and the commenters. I just wanted to throw a bigger bone out for y’all to gnaw on.
A good day. Lopez seemingly headed back to AAA where he belongs, and not desperately locking into a big multi-year deal on an SP just to say you did. I’m on the “contend in ’06″ bandwagon, and would rather see them save a couple biggish contract bullets for next year, rather than get locked in now on the Odalis’ of the world and lose that flexibility next year.
Schilling, Johnson, Hudson, Mulder, Schmidt, Wood, Sheets, Santana, Clemens, Prior.
1. Randy Johnson
2. Curt Schilling
3. Jason Schmidt
4. The Rocket
5. Johan Santana
6. Ben Sheets
7. Mark Prior
8. Jake Peavy
9. Kerry Woods
10. Ryan Franklin
I would too, BUT — in doing some research, I see fewer options in the pitching pool after ’05 (http://kmbumb.people.wm.edu/06agency.html) than I initially gathered (especially since Hudson will likely be signed to an extension, and Schmidt’s option may be picked up), and even fewer bats in ’05 than in ’04. I’m not entirely ruling out the trade market, but seriously, what starting pitchers are going to become available in the next few years that will be better than Perez (or, at the very least, have better upside)???
10 could really be mulder or hudson, but I am waiting for Rick Ankiel to fill that spot for me
And, I know we have a lot of pitching in our system, but outside of Felix, are there other potential starters that we’d be blocking by signing a MOR pitcher? I’m not entirely sold on Blackley, but I do think he’ll be better than he was in ’04.
I’ll bite GRIM. How about these 10 in no particular order: Santana, Prior, Hudson, Schilling, Schmidt, Mulder, Oswalt, Randy, hmmm….gets tough then…Zito, Beckett
#16 and others, what’s the fascination with Lowe?
He was a pretty good setup reliever/closer about five years ago, which is ancient history especially since he wants to be starter. He had ONE great year as a starter in 2002 and has gotten significantly worse each year since.
I like Dave’s comparison to Ryan Franklin — a swingman or long reliever and 6th starter. Would you pay Ryan Franklin $4-5M? I think Lowe will be unsigned until March when he and Boras realize no one will pay him anywhere near what he wants.
santana,johnson,schilling,schmidt,hudson,clemens,Thats all i can really call #1s if smoltzs can stay healthy.others havent proved there #1s yet yes they have #1 stuff but they havent proven it yet..The reeper has spoken
I don’t want to get sucked into this debate, but “Reaper,” you have to admit that Ben Sheets has proven himself as a #1 starter. 2.70 ERA, 10 K/9, 0.97 WHIP. If you don’t want him as your ace, I’ll take him.
That’s a wise decision to pass in that case. $8 mil is a lot. But the Ms still need a pitcher and frankly Lowe may not come much cheaper than that. All this says to me is that Bavasi is looking at acquiring pitching via trade.
Who’s available in trade? Javy Vazquez. The Yankees picked up $9M of his salary so Arizona is basically paying him $27M over the next 3 years. I’d take that. Not sure whether Arizona is particularly interested in what the Ms have to offer, though, and of course, if the Ms really can’t afford another dollar, Arizona would have to take Winn, Franklin, and someone else(?) just to make it an even trade financially.
Why hasn’t anyone mentioned Halladay. He was hurt most of last year but there’s no reason to think he won’t bounce back. Of course, there’s no reason to think Seattle could get him away from Toronto.
Forgive me halliday is the one name i forgot.Sheets needs to win big not 500 .aces win even on losing teams.THE REEPER HAS SPOKEN
Here’s a suggestion. A former Mariner, groundball pitcher, extremely dependent on his infield defense.
Aaron Sele.
If he’d sign a minor league deal, or something close to the league minimum, do you think it’d be worth a shot?
So, going 16-14 on a losing team, that’s not an ace performance then? And, of course, it goes without saying that a player with a .526 winning percentage over a career, no way he’s an ace, right?
If the Mariners are to sign another starting pitcher, then somebody has to be moved, with that person likely being either Gil Meche or Ryan Franklin. Now, while adding a decent #3 starter (e.g.: Aaron Sele, Derek Lowe, Esteban Loaiza, Ismael Valdez, Shawn Estes, etcetera…), I don’t think it should be the Mariners first priority, for they are more in need of an inexpensive back-up outfielder who can play all three positions (e.g.: Danny Bautista, Darren Bragg, Doug Glanville, Desi Relaford, Q!{j/k}, etcetera…).
I don’t want any of the guys still on the market. To say the upgrade wouldn’t be worth the cost, at least as far as Lowe is concerned, is a tremendous understatement.
They’re going to spend about $95 million on the team next year
Is that $95 million, or “$95 million” (read: considerably less than 95 million by using various forms of accouting BS)?
And 3 years at 9 million a year for Perez? Pass. I don’t think Winn or Ibanez fetches a really good SP in trade we could control for more than a year without adding more talent in the deal, either. I could see it fetching somebody in the last year of his deal when combined with a youngster ala the Hudson/Mulder deals, maybe- but unlikely to be as good, probably someone who’s Suppan-tastic.
What is Jeromy Burnitz status? He is a good-hitting outfielder — well, at least in Colorado — who could add some pop at the designated hitter spot, as he would form a lefty/righty platoon with Bucky Jacobsen. Also, with Burnitz on the roster at a one-year deal for an adequate price, it would allow Jeremy Reed to go the way of Jose Lopez, and play every day down in Tacoma—this would allow him more seasoning alongside the oft-injured triad of Vince Faison, Jamal Strong and Chris Snelling (at least one of them will be hurt). Now, the Mariners might have to cut some payroll to obtain Burnitz — if they could convince a team to take on Wiki Gonzalez, in conjunction with a top-notch prospect like Clint Nageotte or Travis Blackley and a serviceable player such as Justin Leone or Greg Dobbs for a single-A bum, then that would work — which would be, overall, a good thing.
Wait a minute, AK. You seriously want us to trade away Nageotte or Blackley and Justin Leone in order to get JEROMY BURNITZ? That is absolutely insane.
Blackley is sooo young. If he is healthy, he’ll be a perfect replacment for Moyer in 2006. He’ll mature and eventually be a fine pitcher if his arm is healthy.
And Jermoy Burnitz? Seriously? Not cheap enough.
Well, with Jeromy Burnitz being held irregardless, I would do anythin’ to save a good $2.5 million dollars ($2.25 in ’05, with a $250 buyout in ’06); besides, Justin Leone is a useless AAAA player, who doesn’t have the talent to be anything more than a Shane Halter esque player — moreover, Dobbs is even more useless, and will probably never be anything more than a replacement-level player — also, getting rid of either Clint Nageotte or Travis Blackley wouldn’t be that bad. Look, both pitchers were highly successful in the minors due to the fact that they usually pitched in ballparks suited for them; however, what is even more scary is how both men have been regressing lately, especially Blackley, as he has watched his K:BB ratio dwindle rapidly.
Jeromy Burnitz, at this point of his career, is basically A.J. Zapp.
#43 THE ONLY DIFFRENCE BETWEEN ZAPP AND BURNITZ IS 250 MAJORLDEAGUE HOMERUNS CMON DUDE YOU KIDDIN
I have no problem with trading young pitchers, however, we can get way more for Nageotte or Blackley than 37-year old bench player.
Well, my original point wasn’t directly trading either Blackley or Nageotte for Burnitz, but rather trading Blackley or Nageotte — as well as either Justin Leone or Greg Dobbs, too — along with Wiki Gonzalez to any team willing to take ‘em for next to nothing in return, which would thereby allow the Mariners to free up money to sign Burnitz, who is a highly underrated player, especially if he were to platoon at DH with Bucky Jacobsen. The other benefit from such a move, though, is that it would allow Jeremy Reed another year of seasoning at Tacoma, where he could work on his defensive skills in the outfield, which are presently poor.
Uh, Reapster … I said “at this point” … none of those 250 home runs will help the Mariners in 2005, so who gives a rat’s gluteal tissue about them?
#46… Did I read that right? You want to give them away? For nothing? Just to free up salary space that we don’t need?
AK, I fully understood your point, that’s why I thought it was crazy. Signing Burnitz for cheap isn’t bad, but giving away a top prospect just to clear a little bit of salary in order to sign him? That’s just foolhardy. If we were in the middle of a playoff chase that would be irresponsible, so I really don’t see the point in hurting our ability to compete long term in order to be marginally more effective in ’05, our rebuilding year.
I think the infield defense is so much better this year that we may see a significant help to the pitching staff. A ground ball pitcher could really thrive with Beltre(I’m still stoked to type his name as a Mariner), Reese, Boone and Sexson behind him. How many better defensive infields are there? Two or three?
Agree with Positive Paul M’s have not spent enough with the possibility that BELTRAN maybe a bargan out there. Wouldn’t he improve defense & offense? As stated Angels added 4 FA last year.
Since there is no comparable Centerfielder on the near horizon now is time to splurge. Much payroll comes off next year but no projected fielder like Beltran..
With Jacobsen, Winn, Reed, and Ibanez all fighting for ABs, and Leone riding the pine wasting whatever talents he has, I cannot for the life of me see the advantage to increasing our logjam of medicre hitters by adding Burnitz.
*does due diligence and looks Burnitz up on Baseball-Reference.com*
Oscar Mike Golf, over. Burnitz’ll be thirty-bleeping-six in 2005! His walk rate is dropping and his SOs remaining constant. His value was based in old-player skills (the nifty walk rates and power), and now he’s clearly entered his decline phase. For what possible reason would we be getting rid of prospects and useful bench pieces, even if they are marginal in both cases, in order to experience even one single year of this guy?
While I think everyone would be enthralled by the possibility that the Mariners might sign Carlos Beltran, it must be realized that not only is it improbable, but it is also not financially possibile (well, at least in the minds of the Mariners’ executives, that is) for he would bust the budget. As it is, for the Mariners to clear enough money to fund Beltran’s expected salary, they would have to find a way to move Ryan Franklin, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Wiki Gonzalez, Scott Spiezio, Randy Winn and Raul Ibanez — without giving the teams that the aforementioned players are traded to any sort of monetary compensation — which would be practically impossible. Ultimately, if the abovementioned were to be done, then the lineup would probably look like this:
SP: Joel Pineiro
SP: Jamie Moyer
SP: Gil Meche
SP: Bobby Madritsch
SP: Clint Nageotte/Cha-Seung Baek
BULLPEN
LS: George Sherrill
LR: Scott Atchison
LR: Ron Villone
MR: Julio Mateo
MR: Matt Thornton
SM: J.J. Putz
CP: Eddie Guardado
LINEUP
RF Ichiro Suzuki
CF Carlos Beltran
3B Adrian Beltre
1B Richie Sexson
2B Bret Boone
LF Jeremy Reed
C Miguel Olivo
DH Justin Leone/Greg Dobbs
SS Calvin Reese
BENCH
C Dan Wilson
1B/DH Bucky Jacobsen
2B/SS/3B Willie Bloomquist
RF/CF/LF Shin-soo Choo
Sadly, making said moves would deplete the offensive depth that the Mariners currently have, which would be a negative. However, Jamie Moyer and Bret Boone are still on this team, which is another reason as to why Seattle doesn’t have the financial means to obtain Carlos Beltran. Now, if the Mariners’ FO could somehow comprehend how useless Boone actually is, and thusly ship him off to the Yankees, then that would be $9 million saved; furthermore, if Moyer would accept a trade to a pre-season ‘contender’ — such as the Chicago Cubs (which would thereby allow Glendon Rusch to pitch in long-relief) — then that would free-up another $7.5 million; all in all, removing both aging ‘fan-favorites’ from the payroll would not only be an efficent way of cleaning house so as to give Beltran room to roam at Safeco, but it would also pave the way for the Mariners to win a 2005 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONSHIP!!! (Well, I can dream—can’t I?)
#53 So you’re gonnna give away Ryan Franklin to avoid paying him $2 million and you’re gonna replace him in the roatation with guys who haven’t proven they can even do in the majors what Franklin’s done? Then you want Leone and Dobbs to platoon as DH with Bucky on the bench? Choo on the bench instead of playing every day at Tacoma? Why not Jamal Strong, who actually can play CF and has proven all he needs to prove at AAA?
With the likely improved defense over last year and since there aren’t many good options available on the market, this is a good situation to find out what the Mariners have in Nageotte and Blackley if they can get their confidence back from last year. Let em earn their way back to the big club, but I would really like to see the shift away from mid level guys even if it means taking some chances.
RE #54
Jamal Strong cannot play right field and he is a right-handed hitter, while Shin-soo Choo can play all three outfield positions and he is a left-handed hitter; Choo is better overall, too. Also, I with the slash I wasn’t refering to a platoon situation, but rather an either/or circumstance. Jacobsen would be a better designated hitter in comparison to both Leone and Dobbs, so just switch him to the starting lineup; I was working with Raul Ibanez being the designated hitter originally, but with him being theoretically traded, the roster spot would be filled by either Leone or Doobs, so I didn’t think clearly enough to move Jacobsen up from the bench, instead of just throwing in either Leone or Dobbs. In addition, the Rainers’ lineup and bench are filled with players who will be nothing more than the proverbial non=prospect == sans Rivera, Lopez, and Morse — sort of guy [C: Reme Rivera, 1B: Kit Pellow, 2B: Jose Lopez, SS<3B>: Michael Morse, 3B: Jusstin Leone/Greg Dobbs, RF: Vince Faison, CF: Jamal Strong, LF: Chris Snelling, DH: Greg Jacobs, C: Bryce Terveen, 1B/DH: Ryan Christianson, 2B/SS: Ramon Santiago, RF/CF/LF: B.J. Garbe].
RE #56:
It’s late, and I’m tired; thus, there are a couple of errors (e.g.: “Doobs” & equals instead of dashes) in the post.
Bummer about Perez. I was hoping that he would be the third good signing of the season at 3 years, 21 mil. Oh well. Since it would have taken 3 years, 27 mil to get Perez, it is best that the M’s didn’t go for it.
Since there is nothing of interest left in free agency, the M’s probably will be going with what they have. I don’t know if they could land a real interesting pitcher in a trade, but perhaps they could move Winn for a younger pitcher with some upside. Dave mentioned Matt Riley from Baltimore in his offseason plan. If the M’s could pick up a guy like him, cheap and with some talent, they could go with a rotation of Piniero, Meche, Madritsch, and Moyer, with the fifth spot open for a spring training battle between Franklin, Blackley, Nageotte, Felix and whoever else the M’s bring in. I would suspect that one of these guys would be impressive in spring training, with the possibility of a surprising performance. I think that Blackley, Nageotte, and Felix could probably use a little more time in Tacoma, but the thought of Franklin in the rotation for another year is not that enticing.
#53 Agree but with Bucky Dh Not saying morgage future for one player but just go over this year for Beltran. There will be market for Winn & whom ever M’s decide to package with. Then come July a couple of older vetrans may have good value or if M’s close as is posable then go from there.
Fans deserve allstar Centerfielder M’s need one.
You tell them AK 1984
AK1984, #53 – Despite your apprehensions about the lack of offensive depth, that lineup looks very tempting… Remember what we were looking at last year, before Spiezio had those back problems?
RF Ichiro!
3B Spiezio
2B Boone
LF Ibanez
DH Martinez
1B Olerud
SS Aurelia
C Wilson/Davis
CF Winn
Considering that Edgar was on his way out, and Spiezio, Ibanez, Olerud, Aurelia and Davis all had sub-par performances at the plate, your starting lineup would easily offset any anticipated problems in the bench (and there were plenty of those last year as well…)
If we could keep Franklin in the rotation (I don’t understand all the negative press he gets here) and maybe even hang onto Winn in LF, what an improvement that would be over last year…
RF Ichiro!
CF Beltran
3B Beltre
1B Sexson
2B Boone
DH Bucky
LF Winn
C Olivo/Wilson
SS Reese
If I was looking to trade for pitching I would try Tampa Bay. They are pitching heavy and need help at 1B and in the OF. They have local boy SP Mark Hendrickson who would be an incremental upgrade over Franklin. Take a look:
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/stats/mlb_sortable_player_stats.jsp?box6=XXXX424805XXXX§ion2=6&statType=2&sortByStat=Last_Name&timeFrame=1&timeSubFrame=2004&baseballScope=mlb&isCompare=true&sitSplit=&venueID=&subScope=teamCode&teamPosCode=all&box1=XXXX211041seaX&checkBoxTotal=0&compare.x=&statSet2=2
Why even waste time making up fake trades, that send off 1/4th of the team, that will never ever happen (and shouldn’t!) to get a player that we have no chance of getting? This isn’t the PI blog, this is the USSMARINER, Beltran isn’t coming. Getting rid of half the team to get him does not make sense and isn’t likely. He is most likely going to sign in the next week or so, how exactly do plan on trading all those players in such short time?!
This is a rebuilding year. Get used to not contending this year. Beltran doesn’t even fill our biggest need, we need a pitcher not another outfielder.
We are setup to get better next year. Boone, Moyer, Wilson all come off the payroll next year. Lopez, King Felix should be ready to contribute some next year. Don’t worry about getting better in ’05, think how we can be better in ’06 and beyond.
Postive Paul’s why stop now, continues to pop up. I’ll tell you why Paul. No matter what the Mariners did this year, they would not be contending in ’05. They have preformed very well this off season to get better in ’06. The only move, or non-move I have not liked this year is the dollars to Sexon, but the Beltre signing, the bringing in Pokey to give Lopez time to be become a second basemen are all good moves.
So we didn’t get a pitcher, all the pitchers signed this year were paid more than they should have been. Why over pay to be a little better but not good enough. Who knows what the market will be like next year? We know what its like this year, over priced.
Why sign Beltran when we have 4 outfielders already, and its not one of our keyholes. Our holes going into this year were the corner infield positions, and pitcher. They filled the corners, and over paying for a pitcher didn’t make sense.
/rantoff
I’m with Josh – most of this comment thread is a waste of time. Can we please stay on topic? Beltran’s not coming here, let it go people. And Dave’s right, Perez moved from a potential steal to overpayed. Bavasi did well to pass.
OK, back on topic.
Pitching. We need another starter. Bavasi correctly states that we have some players with worth that we could move. The contenders are:
1. Winn
2. Ibanez (probably not because of the LH bat)
3. Spezio (still some worth?)
4. Beck, Nageotte or Blackley?
5. Lopez or Bucky?
6. Some combo of the above
#5 is probably heresy, but for the right SP we are contenders in 2005. Thoughts?
Lopez is untouchable, in my opinion. He’s not valuable enough to fetch the top flight starter it would take to make us contenders, but very central to our future, as he’s slated to take over for Boonie in 06. Bucky I could see parting with in the right move, but I don’t know that he’s got much trade value as I think alot of traditional baseball minds are still skeptical that his abilities don’t transfer to full-time play in the big leagues. They’re wrong, of course, but that doesn’t increase the likelihood he’ll fetch a pitcher.
In my opinion M’s fans should be ready to go into 05 with Franklin and Villone vying for the 5th spot in the rotation. I know it’s not a great scenario, but I am glad we’re not overpaying for a slightly above average starter who can’t put us over the top in 05 and whose contract would hinder us going forward. If Sexson, Piniero, Meche and Soriano can magically stay healthy (I know, unlikely), then 06 looks very, very nice.
We were 29 games out of first last year. What starting pitcher, plus Beltre, Sexon, Pokey make that up?
Speizo has no value in a trade. I would not trade Blackley, Nageotte, Beck, Lopez or Bucky right now. All are cheap and will help us next year. I would be willing to trade Winn or Ibanez.
Seriously why gamble this year when we are setup so nicely for ’06? Boone, Moyer, Wilson all come off the payroll to free up cash. You have 4 cheap starters in Reed, Olivo, Lopez, King Felix, 5 if you play Bucky for cheap at DH. ’06 is the year to go for it. Be patient.
Ehh looks like Troy beat me to the punch.
I for one am glad the M’s did not jump and sign this guy for $20 plus million over a bunch of years. While lefthand startes are hard to find, and lefthanders in general the same, Perez is a 45-43 career record pitcher with an ERA of 4.00. He came up in the Braves system and was 4-6 with a 6.00 ERA, 7-8 with a 4.91. He was 15-10, 12-12 and 7-6 in three years with LA. But even in this inflated world of baseball salaries, I am happy to see the M’s did not plug millions into a .500 pitcher, who is extremely overweight. When Perez was with Atlanta, he was much slimmer. He has got heavier and heavier with LA. In fact, huge. That is going to put extreme pressures on his legs to hold up. The M’s do not need to be paying this guy several million to rehab his arm or knees in a year or two. He is not a $24 million pitcher. Sorry to burst any bubbles, but he is not.
Nothing to add except to agree with Josh. 2006 is the year. The free agents they added have given me hope that we will be competitive. Time to stop. Wait till next offseason for further changes.
a swing and a miss raises an interesting question: What is the career path for overweight pitchers? Someone could provide a comprehensive inventory for evaluations. Two to add to it are David Wells, CC Sabathia.
#32 no chance – but who is available is Miguel Batista – the Jays would be quite willing to give him up for prospects since they are already playing for 2006 & beyond.
mlb free agent tracker reports that Perez has declined arbitration offer from LA. Does that mean he’s back on the radar? If he had declined with LA, though, that probably means he is thinking he’s worth much more than he is. With O. Perez out, do we stand any chance of signing any SP’s that will bolster our starting rotation?
What are the most feasible options? Lima? Loaiza? Lowe? Millwood? Nomo? Valdez?
Perez signed a new contract, when they sign a contract they are basically turning down the opportunity to goto arbitration.
Lima, Nomo, Valdez are all terrible.
Lowe, Loazia, Millwood want more than they are worth to us, and we don’t have the cash to get them without trades.
Let Villone, Franklin, maybe even Felix fight it out for 5th this year. There is no reason to over-extend ourselves at this point to be just a little bit better than mediocre. Just wait one more year.
With all this debate about pitchers, why so little discussion about Soriano? A year ago he seemed to be THE future of the organization. Have his health problems devalued his stock that significantly? I would think that a rotation with Soriano every fifth day has some potential. Did I miss the boat? Was I at the train station? Throw me a bone here.
Soriano might be back at the end of the season, but could easily miss all of 2005
At this point, I’ll be shocked if Soriano is ever a starter again.
Josh, what is the basis for your statement that the M’s don’t have the cash to sign another player?
Miguel Batista’s an interesting suggestion. He had a dreadful 2004, though.
Finally a trade suggestion where someone bothers to mention a team on the other end who might actually want something from us.
Well Bastista had a disappointing 2004 but:
He had no run support & a horrible defense behind him and was playing in a pitchers park. I know his peripherals weren’t so hot but he has had decent ones in the past – it’s not unreasonable to say he became mentally frustrated & it carried over into his performance. Batista is a very cerebral man who gets by on throwing 100 different kinds of junk. I think Moyer would be a great influence on him, plus playing in such a good pitchers park (he was stuck in Arizona before this) with a good defense could be a real confidence builder. Considering the market for mid-rotation starter his salary is quite reasonable. The Jays really need a first basemen so there may be a match without giving away to much of the farm.
david C, do you mean he was playing in a hitters park?
Yeah – the Sky Dome is a hitter’s park, I believe the turf leads to a lot of doubles.
Well, I have HUGE concerns about the long-term of this franchise — and don’t see how this team is set up to contend in 2006 and beyond — especially with what’s looking available in the FA market after 2005. I believe that it is indeed possible to contend in ’05 while also improving for 2006 and beyond. Odalis Perez is a 27 year old pitcher, not too old, and from any of this year’s FA pitching crop, has the most possibility for improving. He was one of the three pitchers I felt would help the M’s in 2005 (the other two being Clement and Pavano), and would not hurt them in years beyond 2005 (and would likely even help the team). Sexson, on the other hand, *might* help in 2005, but will likely decline and be an albatross beyond 2005. I
I’m not saying it’s possible for the M’s to shell out another $12-18 million to nab Beltran, but I do believe that it certainly is entirely possible for them to up their budget another $6-8 million to nab a starting pitcher that would help both now and in the long term. That’s why I’m disappointed we didn’t get Perez, and was willing to overpay him $1-2 million to get him. Would I LOVE to have Beltran — YES! He fills one of our biggest holes — an above-average defensive CF who can still hit well. But, I’m realistic enough to see that it would take a lot of salary dumping to make that happen. It would be a whole lot easier for them to trim $2-3 million via salary dump than $6-10.
Beyond 2005, the M’s don’t really have much of a MLB-proven roster. There are guys who will get huge raises (Meche, Piniero, etc.) but there are only 10 or so guys now that are actually signed beyond 2005. And, looking at what’s available in the free agent market after 2005 and even after 2006 (see http://kmbumb.people.wm.edu/06agency.html for example), there’s really not a whole lot that would be better than even Perez. My point here is that we have a lot of long-term flexibility, and not a ton of guys who will likely matriculate from the minors and immediately help the M’s contend.
All I’m saying is that there’s absolutely no reason for us not to be able to contend in 2005. I’m making the comparison between the 2003-2004 Anaheim club and the 2004-2005 M’s. Yes the situation is a little bit different, but we are in as good of if not better of a financial situation than Anaheim was, and there’s no reason why we can’t plug the majority of our big holes with the best available options. It is possible to do this, even with Perez off the market. It will take more creativity from Bavasi (via trades), but it’s still possible. There’s no reason not to make it happen!
As I mentioned earlier, the Devil Rays have a number of players available, and they need a 1b and OF. I say we take a look at Dustin McGowan.
Article:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1779246
Dustin McGowan blew out his arm last year – or did you already know that?
And he’s a Blue Jays prospect, so it might be a bit hard to get him from Tampa.
Ok, Dave, fair point, but I think you meant to say, “Old chap, you must be joshing, he plays for that other team that rhymes with ‘Rays.’ A smart fellow like you must have been referring to Scott Kazmir!”
Say, Dave, that is a good point! We should look at Kazmir:
article: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1850844
stats: http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/stats/mlb_individual_stats_player.jsp?playerID=431148§ion1=1&statSet1=1§ion2=1§ion3=1&statSet3=1&statSet2=1
Kazmir? In your dreams.
Looking at free agents for next year is going to be pretty inexact. Two years ago how many people had Beltran, Santana, even Beltre, etc on their radar. New people pop up, people become available via trades, farmhands make starters redundant at lower cost, kids suprise, reliable guys get injured or flame out. It’s a bit crazy to say that if the M’s don’t grab everyone they can in this offseason they aren’t going to have another shot for years.
re: #87
I don’t think so, and I would like to hear even a little bit of your arguement rather than an unsupported statement. I’m talking about a prospect, and elite pitching prospects have both the highest expectations/highest attrition. We trade a MLB proven OF like Winn/Ibanez (who play positions the Rays need to fill this year) and tack on salary coverage or a guy from our rotation and you have a deal. Plus we have a number of guys in our farm system (a glut of 3B, SS, LHP for example) who we could trade.
#89. I don’t know that there is anything “factual” that would support #87′s claim that there is no way the Rays would trade us Kazmir for what you’re suggesting. Let’s start with Kazmir is probably a top 5 prospect in all of MLB. AND let’s add that while pitching prospects are notoriously risky, he has already performed farily well at the major league level in his cup of coffee last year. So this is not some guy in High A we’re talking about. Okay, next we have that the Rays are loaded in OF prospects, and the last thing they need is to block guys like Delmon Young with proven league-average guys like Winn or Ibanez. As a one-year stopgap, maybe. But you don’t trade top 5 prospects for one-year stopgaps. And we don’t really have a 1B to trade them, unless they want Sexson.
RealRhino is correct. Also, PositivePaul, you’re getting way ahead of yourelf to start looking at the FA market after 05 and 06. This time last year we wouldn’t have been falling all over ourselves to get Beltre (or Drew), at least not at the prices they went for. There will undoubtedly be plenty of quality players unexpectedly decline next year, and other players unexpectedly put it all together. There always is.
We basically have an 06 nucleus of Felix Hernandez, Adrian Beltre, Jeremy Reed, Ichiro!, Joel Pineiro, Jose Lopez and Richie Sexson. Plus, we have other players with potential (Olivo, Bucky, Meche, Nageotte, Blackley, Madritsch) or who just need health (Soriano, Guardado, Snelling). And of course, we have payroll flexibility to get free agents or acquire people via trade. I’d rather have that flexibility than throw $8 million at Perez. I’m with you about Sexson, but that’s already done – no use in throwing more money away just to justify that bad signing.
BTW, what happened to “Positive”Paul? You seem a little pessimistic in this thread.
I’ve been asking about this everywhere else so I might as well here to. According to an atricle from the Pittsburgh Post Gazette:
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05005/437329.stm
“The Pirates are taking a hard line with all of their remaining unsigned, arbitration-eligible players except shortstop Jack Wilson.
Those five — pitchers Kip Wells, Josh Fogg and Brian Meadows, first baseman Craig Wilson and utilityman Rob Mackowiak — are being offered one-year, non-guaranteed contracts. And the team has made it clear to the players’ agents that there will be no flexibility on either count.”
Does this mean anything about the availability of Kipp Wells? Before Perez he was their Ace in the making right?
Well, the “positive” actually has several intended meanings. Consider this sentence:
“I’m positive I had a positive balance in my checking account before I wrote that check for $1 million, gifting you with a positive perspective on life (provided I’m Donald Trump, of course)…”
In this thread’s case, the “positive” has to do moreso with surity than optimism.
Nevertheless — I’m arguing that if we we’re willing to spend $6 million on Perez, why, then, wouldn’t we spend the $8 million the market produced? The $1-2 million difference is, in the big picture of things, not THAT big of a deal. Several of us here were willing to “clog” the roster for 3 years with him anyway, so what’s point of arguing over an extra 1-2 million in a no-bargains market? There were 3-4 free agent pitchers I would’ve taken a shot on for 3-4 years, and Perez was one of them. Paying him 8 million versus 6 million is water under the bridge for me — especially considering what we are paying Sexson. The M’s have the financial means to cover that extra $1-2 million, even if it means being creative with a salary dump move to keep within their nebulous budget.
And, Dave, I actually disagree with this statement:
I, too, agree that Garcia is a better pitcher. However, if Garcia hadn’t've signed an extension with Chicago, in THIS market, he would’ve signed for no less than $10 million per (possibly even closer to $12 million). This time last year, the M’s would’ve been INSANE to want to give Freddy more than $8 million per. Knowing what the market is now, they probably would’ve given him that in a heartbeat.
I also disagree, Troy, that it’s too early to plan ahead by looking at what’s out there after ’05. Sure, there are some surprises, but if you’re looking at contending in ’06 and beyond, you have to have a pretty sure-fire nucleus to build upon and a good, forecastable handle on what might be available for you to grab to fill forthcoming holes (i.e. Boone, Moyer, etc…).
For all the Beltres, Santanas and Drews there are guys like Glaus, Sexson, Ordonez, Garciaparra. You cannot predict injury, generally, and predicting young superstardom is almost as big of a crapshoot. Who would’ve thought before 2004 that Nomar was going to get only a 1-year $8 million deal in the free agent market? I’d bet no one. Whether it existed or not is subject for debate, but he reportedly scoffed at the large deal the BoSox did offer him. I bet Maggs is also using part of his knee rehab assignment to kick himself for not signing the contract extension Chicago placed in front of him early in ’04.
But completely ignoring the future market when making decisions on who you go after now is insane! I don’t think that Perez would’ve clogged the roster to prevent us from being a major player in next season’s Hot Stove League. Nor do I think our “prospects” are proven or even “good” enough to have us contending in 2006 and beyond. I’m very optimistic about guys like Bucky, Olivo, Lopez, Blackley, Meche, Madritsch being a good nucleus down the road, but I’m not willing to bet my house that the M’s will contend in 2006. And, I believe the M’s have the financial means to fill their largest hole — pitching — either via free agency (less likely) or via trade (more likely). With as many question marks there are with the other teams in the AL West, I honestly believe that the M’s have as good a shot as any, if they fill that pitching hole that is, at winning the West. I’d say Anaheim is still the front-runner, but you cannot rule out Seattle entirely. We’ve added way too much offense, shored up the infield defense, and have a World-Series-experienced manager to pilot the ship.
And there’s my “positive” (from an optimistic perspective) point.
re #90
“Let’s start with Kazmir is probably a top 5 prospect in all of MLB.”
My original point was that the Devil Rays have a number of good pitchers we could trade for (Hendrickson, Brazelton, and Kazmir to name a few). I mean, if Kazmir wasn’t good why would I have mentioned him?
“But you don’t trade top 5 prospects for one-year stopgaps. And we don’t really have a 1B to trade them, unless they want Sexson.”
None of the players I mentioned have one year contracts, so they would be there to help them for several years. Ibanez can play first base well, which would give the Rays great flexibility. They have one corner outfielder injured (Baldelli), and one is a .250 hitter (Cruz) that should be a defensive replacement.
#94. But the whole premise is probably flawed to start with. Tampa is cheap. Real cheap. They are a team WE should be trading prospects to in order to get actual talent, like Nags/Blackley for Huff. Not the other way around. They aren’t going to take on $4 million for Winn/Ibanez and give us essentially free pitchers like Brazelton and Kazmir (not that they would give them up even if the price was even). So now you are talking about paying most of their contract, to boot. For a player I don’t think they need. First, Baldelli is not a corner outfielder. He’s a centerfielder. Second, Ibanez can’t play first “well.” He can play first some. Third, while Winn and Ibanez aren’t under one-year contracts, they are probably of no use to the D-Rays after 2005 because in 2006, barring injury, their OF is going to be Crawford-Baldelli-Young. And Huff is already a better 1B/OF than Ibanez. Fourth, Hendrickson isn’t good. I just don’t think they’re a good trade partner. The pitchers they have are either too high-ceiling and cheap or too sucky, and we don’t have anything they need, IMO.
In response to SFS, I think Rhino covered the ground nicely; but to clarify, all TB would want in the OF is a one-year stopgap. Which is to say, the long-term deals on Raul and Randy (who, remember, they dealt to us to clear room for their young OFs) would be a disadvantage from their perspective, not an advantage. The D-Rays want to build young, cheap and talented–which is why they aren’t dealing Kazmir, at least not for anything we’d want to offer them–and their future OF is Young/Baldelli/Crawford, and regardless of what you think of Baldelli, they’re high on him; which is why dealing Kazmir (young, cheap, stratospheric ceiling) for a middle-aged, more expensive OF who would block one of those three guys simply doesn’t line up with their plans.
Oops–gaffed the HTML.
re: 96
I’m going to concede the point that Tampa may not need another outfielder, but they are actively looking for one according to MLB.com.
I thought the guys that responded to my post made some good points. As you said, “Tampa is cheap. Real cheap,” but they did add to their payroll budget for 2005 and they have space left. I think that Huff/Ibanez would work in 1b/LF, then they move 1b/DH when Phelps’ contract expires next year.
Also, I think some realism is necessary here. Hendrickson would be a good addition to our rotation. In 2004 he beat out Moyer, Meche, and Franklin in ERA, SLG, OBA, BB/9, and is within a .01 tie for the lead in WHIP. I’ll take a ground ball pitcher (higher GO/AO then any of our current rotation) any day of the week with this infield. Plus he is from Mount Vernon and whatever you all say I like seeing guys from the neighborhood playing in our park.
Hendrickson stat comparison:
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/stats/mlb_sortable_player_stats.jsp?compare.x=&box6=XXXX424805XXXX§ion2=11&statSet2=2&statType=2&sortByStat=TEAM&timeFrame=1&timeSubFrame=2004&baseballScope=mlb&isCompare=true&sitSplit=&venueID=&subScope=teamCode&teamPosCode=all&box1=XXXX211041seaX&box2=XXXX219194seaX&box3=XXXX119469seaX&box4=XXXX334492seaX&checkBoxTotal=0&playerLocator=hendrickson
Josh, what is the basis for your statement that the M’s don’t have the cash to sign another player?
Paul I guess I really don’t have any proof that they have no more room left for payroll. The only thing I can really go on is what Bavasi has said about it, I’m sure they do have a little something left, but I don’t think its enough to sign a Millwood, and really out of the pitchers available he is the only one I think that would be a decent addition. Unless we go the trade route.
I think if they make any more moves this year, they should be of the Pokey type, short little cheap deals. I don’t want to do anything that ruins flexabilty that we will have next year.
Paul & Josh: I read somewhere in the last day or two that Millwood passed his physical with the Indians. So, apparently he is healthy by their doctor’s inspections. Millwood has had a very up and down career, even with the Braves. If you look at his record, he has had a couple of real good years, winning 18 games, but also, he seems to be a good year, bad year, type pitcher. He started good with the Phillies, throwing a no-hitter, etc., then went south. He is the poster child for blown contracts by his agent, Scott Boreass. Turned down a $30 mil contract from Phillies a couple of years ago, and ole Scott also was telling everyone that he had five or six teams making offers to Millwood a year ago, when he had no one and Millwood went back to the Phillies in arbitration. Millwood is not a #1. He pitched behind Glavine, Maddux and Smoltz. He normally did not go against other team’s #1 as such. He’d make a good #3, but not at a $11 million per year like he got last year. More like $6 to 7 for his results.
#98. Well, I wouldn’t mind seeing a Bulldog out there for the M’s, either. But, having said that, I see Hendrickson as worse than our current starters or essentially redundant. First, I don’t think you can compare him to guys on the way out like Moyer. Pineiro was better. So it’s between Hendrickson, Meche and Franklin, I guess. Hendrickson had the worst ERA+ of any of the three last year. He strikes out only 4.7/9, so his long-term outlook for success isn’t good. He might do okay, but I wouldn’t bet on it. And both Franklin and Meche suffered from abnormally high HR rates last year, which isn’t likely to repeat. Maybe I like him better than Franklin, but he’s already free (on the roster), so I certainly wouldn’t give up something for Hendrickson. That’s just me.
Swing and a Miss yea you are right. I should have looked up his stats from the last couple of years before making that statement. I wasn’t seeing him as a number 1 but…
2002 ATL 35 34 18 8 0 1 1 217.0 186 83 78 16 65 178 3.24 1.16 .230
2003 PHI 35 35 14 12 0 5 3 222.0 210 103 99 19 68 169 4.01 1.25 .250
2004 PHI 25 25 9 6 0 0 0 141.0 155 81 76 14 51 125 4.85 1.46 .278
Hopefully that turns out to look decent when I push the post button. ERA increasing, K rate dropping, WHIP steadily going up. I don’t like the looks of that at all.
One more time with headers…
Year Team G GS W L SV CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
2002 ATL 35 34 18 8 0 1 1 217.0 186 83 78 16 65 178 3.24 1.16 .230
2003 PHI 35 35 14 12 0 5 3 222.0 210 103 99 19 68 169 4.01 1.25 .250
2004 PHI 25 25 9 6 0 0 0 141.0 155 81 76 14 51 125 4.85 1.46 .278
There is no reason why the M’s can’t try to sign Batista from the Jays. Of course we would have to give up some talent, but Richardi is a MoneyBall GM. Give him walks, and OPS etc. and a trade will be done. I mean Batista is still set to be the closer on the Jays right now, and you know he wants back into the rotation. Richardi will just turn someone else into a closer and save money on Batista.
Sorry, this would be a trade…not a signing
Josh @ 102: I am from the south originally. I saw Millwood a lot back earlier in his career. He threw hard, but was all over the place. Leo fixed him, but Kevin is one of those that must be a hard head, because he seems to go back to old habits very easily. That is one of the reasons I think he has suffered away from Leo who kicks butt. I am very interested to see how Wright holds up with the Yanks. When SD released him he had an ERA over 7.70. Leo worked with him a while, they pitched him a few innings at the end of the season and he had a very low ERA with them. Then the great year last year. It will be interesting to see how he does with Mel. Millwood might pitch well in Safeco, a new league. Larger park would certainly keep the ball in the park a little better. That new Phillies stadium was made for dingers as they have a dingers built team. He would fit ok behind Joel, Jamie, Meche, etc. I still hope Gil comes back. I think all the innings he threw two seasons ago hurt him this past year. I think his arm was just totally tired from the 2003 season after not pitching much for so long. If he bounces back this year, I think that will show that he has to be held to a pitch and innnings count to protect his arm from an early season innings build up.
Now that Perez is off the table and the remaining FA SP’s are mediocre at best – what realistic trades are available for a possible SP? Would the M’s be interested in an Austin Kearns trade, giving up a SP+ in exchange? Are the M’s done until Spring Training reshaping the club? I’d like to hear some REALISTIC assessment of where the club is headed. Thanks
RE 107, the only thing anyone really knows is that Bavasi has said they are looking to bring in a SS to backup Pokey. He also said not to expect anything blockbuster. No one can say for sure though what the team is going to do. This is probably pretty close to the team that will be heading to spring training, minus a minor signing.
Whether Millwood would be good or not in Seattle (and the recent decline in stats points towards not) isn’t really important now with it looking like he is headed towards Cle at 7 million for 1 year.