Lowe and DePo
The Dodgers are on the verge of wrapping up the worst offseason of any team in baseball by guaranteeing Derek Lowe-get this-$36 million over 4 years.
This Derek Lowe. The one who posted a 5.42 ERA last year, 10 percent below league average, and a 4.47 ERA in 2003, just 5 percent above league average. Lowe wasn’t quite as bad as he pitched last year-an inordinate amount of his balls in play went for hits, which will probably come back to normal next year-but, at best, he’s a league average innings eater.
There’s really not a huge difference between Derek Lowe and Ryan Franklin. Both have rubber arms who have taken the ball every 5 days without getting hurt. Both have mediocre control and don’t miss bats, relying on their defense to get outs for them. They won’t ruin your team’s chances of contending, but they certainly are nothing more than role players who are just marginally better than what a creative GM could snag on the waiver wire.
Looking at the offseason, if the Dodgers complete this deal, they’ll have spent $36 million of their 2005 payroll on J.D. Drew, Odalis Perez, Derek Lowe, Jeff Kent, Jose Valentin, Wilson Alvarez, Elmer Dessens, and Ricky Ledee. $36 million for that collection of talent?
Or, written another way, they’ll pay Lowe and Valentin $12.5 million in 2005, basically the same as the annual average value of Adrian Beltre’s contract.
Adrian Beltre or Derek Lowe and Jose Valentin. DePo chose B.
Ouch.
Comments
51 Responses to “Lowe and DePo”
This really is a lot like a Fantasy league – the rookie managers usually get pounded their first year.
You sure DePo can be classified as a stat-head? Obviously there are flaws in both camps. Not just arguments, but people, evidently.
To think that I earlier infiltrated a Dodger’s blog with the “challenge” over Beltre: “May the best GM win” (adding the sidebar “I’d give DePo the edge”). Boy I think I was wrong on that one. (Sorry, Derek, to bring up another blog, or even refer to its contents — hopefully it’s generic enough not to raise your ire…)
Anyone still think Bavasi’s a complete idiot?
Anyone still wish we would’ve signed DePo over Bavasi?
I sure don’t.
It’s tough to judge that move so harshly at this point. A lot of moves that Beane has pulled in recent years have seemed for the worse, but have shown to be for the better, or at least close. DePodesta is from the same camp as Beane, so I’ll give this one some time before I judge it. Though I do wonder who will replace Beltre at third. Are they planning to have Ventura play there all season or do they have a minor leaguer ready to go?
And I do wish we signed DePodesta over Bavasi. Without question. Signing Sexson to a contract way more than he’s worth was a terrible move. Now Bucky won’t play.
Beane’s moves can generally be justified by the stats except in cases when he was pulling rabbits out of hats creating closers (and his luck ran out there with Rhodes). In any case, even though he was operating with a lower absolute budget he wasn’t tying up such a large percentage in a few individuals.
Of course, if this all blows up you know it will be painted as “this proves there’s nothing to the ideas of these stat-head idiots.”
By his best, do you mean adjusting his numbers to the mean? Because his best is pretty good, certainly better than Franklin’s. I’ve seen a lot of Lowe over the years and his stuff is excellent, if he uses all of it. When he struggles is when his sinker is a bit off and he tries desperately to get it right. He has a good curveball he can throw for strikes, a good changeup but somehow over these past two years he got it into his head that his sinker was so devastating–maybe he read quotes from people like Rondell White exclaming how heavy and hard to lift his sinker is–that he can get by with just that. Not only does that make him predictable but because his sinker has so much movement he can suddenly throw a rash of balls. That’s a bad combination, having to throw a strike against a hitter who knows what’s coming with men on base. Big innings killed him. During the playoffs, he did a simple thing like throwing a curveball to start the count or when behind in it. 3-0, he’ll get a curveball over, then throw a sinker in the zone to a hitter who doesn’t know what to expect and the hitter would make an out. Potential big inning averted.
Now Bucky won’t play.
Yeah, but Pokey will.
Anyway, when Sexon’s arm falls off he will. Or perhaps the new coach will be smart enough to not work medically risky players into the ground for once.
#3 – I’d much rather take a HUGE risk filling a big hole with a potentially large offensive upgrade – especially if that move is a mandatory precursor to a much more important subsequent move – than on a guy even tossed aside by most in the stathead community.
Wow. I’m baffled.
Well, I can’t say that I saw Bill Bavasi being able to outwork Paul DePodesta for Adrian Beltre, but I never thought I’d see DePodesta reeling with moves quite like this. I’m bewildered at the strategy here, though I can’t tell if it’s better or worse than the The Angels Angels of Anaheim anymore.
One wonders how much creative freedom DePodesta has in L.A. Maybe Frank McCourt is a Steinbrenneresque puppermaster who is essentially telling his general manager what to do … ?
It depends on which perspective you look at. One one hand DePodesta got outworked for Beltre, due to the fact that the bonus money is upfront. On the other DePodesta has filled many holes with the $36M, one third of payroll for one third of the players (in a general sense).
You also have to consider that the M’s haven’t upgraded pitching, yet, and they need to. It doesn’t matter how many great hitters you have (or okay hitters that people think are upgrades), if you don’t have pitching, especially in the AL, you aren’t going to win a lot of ballgames.
The Dodgers will be better than people expect this year, and I don’t like the Dodgers.
I’m not going to give Depo any silly excuses. This is just another in a series of bad moves. I think Lowe still has chance to be a solid #2–you just got to love that HR rate–next year, but then what? By contract’s end this is going to a world class albatross for the organization. Not that it looks like Depo will get a chance to see it.
Or maybe he gets big eyes when he sees a potential trade or free agent comes his way and forgets himself. When someone moves from assistant GM to GM, you might be out of your element for awhile. Or maybe he sees something in these guys that we don’t. I guess we’ll find out once the season starts.
#11 Jim, I agree McCourt is the wildcard. The guy shows all the signs of being another Donald Sterling but with less money. Another ownership handpicked by Bud. But curiously the last two WS winners were also handpicked by Bud.
I think with the Lowe signing, DePo has fallen victim to one of the oldest and biggest GM rules. Do not overpay a player based on his play in the most recent post-season. Steinbrenner singing Don Gullet in ’77 (damaged goods though), Al Davis signing Larry Brown from the Cowboys.
He might have looked at Lima for fewer years and fewer dollars.
Also the Shawn Green deal has yet to go through.
A) Why does the Sexson signing mean Bucky won’t play? Who’s going to DH instead of Bucky?
B) Can someone please show me some type of stats that says how likely Beltre is to continue hitting how he did last year, rather than previous years?
Thanks.
It’s interesting how the sabr GMs are shaking out. Beane & JP excellent, Depo & ( I’m blanking on the guy in Toronto) not so much.
In response to 14a, I assume that, against righthanders, Ibanez will DH, with Winn, Reed, and Ichiro across the outfield. Bucky might get a good number of ABs as DH against lefties if Hargrove decides either Reed or Ibanez are not effective against lefties.
#14 Ibannez will…And for all you depo fans he was alot smarter without money then with money.Stats have there place in the game but so do scouts and good talent evaluaters..THE REEPER HAS SPOKEN.
15 Did ypou say jp excellent hah what a laugh this guy threatend to fire all his scouts if they ever watched a hischool player…That is idiotic if you ask anyone…14 IBANNEZ A PROVEN BIGLEAGUE HITTER WILL dh WHY A CAREER MINOR LEAGUER WILL BE BACK IN TACOMA…SORRY IT WAS A NICE RUN BUT THE BURLY BUCKY STRTED TO GET EXPOSED BEFORE HE GOT HURT AND THE ADVANCE SCOUTS WILL MAKE IT WORSE FOR HIM 2ND TIME AROUND…
JP (Ricciardi) IS the guy in Toronto.
Does anyone else think that L.A. wouldn’t have fizzled away so quickly in the playoffs if Depo hadn’t messed with the team?? Obviously he couldn’t have known Brad Penny would get injured so quickly; but trading LoDuca and Mota away was a horrible move. And seeing what he’s done this offseason leads me to believe he is a pretty horrible GM as well. (glad i’m not a Dodgers fan!)
..and #17, your way off on Bucky. Bucky’s the man. I think that Winn will be shipped out somewhere for pitching and Bucky will be the DH with Ibanez in LF. But if Hargrove or the front office doesn’t give Bucky an opurtunity or releases him then they are fools and I will be really mad!
Nice analysis of the deals there, Dave. It was almost as good as today’s Triple Play at Prospectus. Seriously, you guys must be spending alot of time on the book, huh?
Now, this is a bad deal, but there are many factors that could make this look decent. First, Lowe has had some nice DERA’s the past couple of years, so he should rebound. His BAHIP should regress dramatically, especially considering that he’s entering a park that reduces BAHIP and has a very good infield defense behind him, according to UZR.
Now, I understand why you don’t like the Valentin or Kent signings. It seems like, at least reading your comments in the Stat/Scout thread, that you want to distance yourself from actual sabermetric analysis and become a “fan”. And I must say, you seem to be doing a good job of it.
I do not foresee a rebound for DLowe.
I watched a lot of Lowe’s games this year, and the lefties in the Oriole and Yankee lineups knew how to wait for the sinker away and slap it into the opposite field. Heck, the Devil Rays figured it out. If the lefty NL hitters watch some tape of his 2004 games and he goes about his business the same way, he could be in for some rough outings.
The 5.42 regular season ERA only begins to tell the story; Lowe was very prone to giving up hit after hit after any error or misfortune behind him, which is why he led the AL in runs allowed. I don’t know much about pitching sabermetrics, but I know a WHIP of 1.61, #41 in the AL, is bad, and that a K rate of 3.5 K/9IP does not predict a rosy future.
But he made himself millions of dollars by pitching well in the ALCS and the World Series in his walk year, and I will tip my hat to him if interleague play should ever bring him to a start at Safeco. He was one of the 25; he should never pay for a beverage in New England again.
Am I the only one who thinks Kent and Drew were good signings? I wouldn’t pay Lowe this kind of money, but in a pitching market that grants Jaret Wright 3/$21 it ain’t so far out of line either. (that’s a dumb justification I know)
I’m surprised DePo didn’t work harder to get Mulder or Hudson…
So, at the moment I’m stuck on Dave’s comment about how Lowe’s numbers in 2004 suffered from “an inordinate amount of his balls in play went for hits,” which struck me as interesting. I’m curious how much of that comes from a possible lack of defensive range and ability exhibited by Boston’s defensive infield and outfield, what could be simply termed ‘luck,’ or some other possible factor that I haven’t considered.
So, Dave, if Lowe’s problems were partially related to having a bad defense behind him, which I could see since Lowe’s known as a contact pitcher, might he also face similar problems in LA where the infield defense seems to have been downgraded with the loss of Beltre and Cora and the additions of Kent and Valentin? Just curious, because I think Lowe was a really poor choice and a signal that the Dodgers might not be operating with a fully thought out plan regarding how all their acquistions will fit together. Call the Isaiah Thomas effect if you will.
#25: Oops, I copied data from the wrong column. DLowe’s K/9IP rate was 5.17 in 2004, not 3.5. Still a pretty dismal figure for a $9m man.
Comments by the trey on Southland Follies, assorted:
RE: D. Lowe, here I’m with murton, #8, on Lowe’s stuff, but mostly with you, Dave, on Lowe’s probably matrix as a pitcher going forward. Lowe has a rubber arm, and outstanding stuff, especially that power sinker, but like everyone who depends on the latter pitch he has the same problem: it’s hard to steer a hard sinker into the zone consistently. His secondary pitches are quite good (murton says great), but Lowe doesn’t trust them, which took him to the pen the first time. When Derek Lowe has had a hot streak of five-ten starts where he would get the sinker over, he’s dominated. The rest of the time, he’s had trouble cutting off a bad patch of sequential hits in game after game which left it to his defense to prevent the big inning; too often, this has been too much to ask. The real problem with the guy isn’t stuff or even control, in my view, it’s that even after six years plus in the bigs he still doesn’t know how to pitch, i.e. how to use his pitches in combination to string together key outs and/or work out of trouble. Lefties waiting on the sinker, LB? They get the curve, and roll over it for the DP. I’ve wondered for a couple of years who and what Lowe would be if he got matched up with a guru-type pitching coach who could convince Derek L. to think like a pitcher rather than throw like a closer. I even had a sneaking interest to see if the Ms would pick him up on the cheap this offseason, and see what Price could do with the guy for a year. But this should have been at most a one-and-an-option at about $3.5M per, and he was sure to get a bigger (fool’s) offer. Now he has evidently.
I don’t buy your comparison of Lowe to Ryan Franklin, Dave, although their comparative _results_, what I suspect you really mean, really are pretty similar, I’ll agree, and it’s true that they are both rubberarmed innings eaters. Franklin, mediocre control? Back that one up, please; it sure doesn’t fit anything I’ve seen in Ryan’s career. As far as I can tell he has pretty good (although not outstanding control), but thoroughly mediocre stuff. It’s not that Frankie misses with his pitches, it’s just that they’re not very good pitches and if he keeps laying them in the zone good hitters hit them. This was Jamie Moyer pre-cutter: always around the strike zone with good control, but mediocre stuff that ended up in the seats if he missed even by an inch, lifetime ERA around 5.00. Furthermore, Franklin actually has _too many pitches_ now, to me. I’d never thought I’d say that, but Franklin shows that this can be true. With five-six pitches, there’s always a couple that aren’t working in any given game for Ryan, so Frankie tends to throw too many nothing pitches, and to have to figure out what’s working too much of the time by seeing what ends up in the seats. To my mind, what Franklin needes to do is cut down to about four pitches, and settle on a consistent pitching pattern—which he can then switch up on mid-game. And Frankie could stand to be a little less scared of the walk in an effort to get guys to expand their strikezones a bit when he’s on the mound, too. Ryan’s spent his career working in front of good, even great infield defenses in a pretty good pitcher’s park (which doesn’t cut down power that much); neither factor particularly suppresses his biggest flaw, the homerun ball. Nonetheless it’s hard to project him getting much better, or much help from his even better infield defense in ’05.
Lowe, on the other hand, has great stuff, but an inability to reliably locate his best pitch, so in consequence he tends to sequentially yield balls in play (although not that many dingers); not the same set of issues at all, in fact almost completely the opposite matrix. He’s going to a great pitchers’ park and a much improved infield defense from a great hitters park with a sub-mediocre infield defense (outside of Mueller, and Theo worked hard to correct this late in the ’04 season, to be sure). Lowe has a reasonably good chance to turn in a decent year in ’05, maybe even come up with another outstanding season over the next three years or so. But a reasonable expection of Lowe’s most favorable probable upside would be 10-15 wins and about the same number of losses, with an ERA around 4.00, i.e. a third or fourth starter _at best_, sure; not THAT different fron Franklin’s best conceivable results. Given that Lowe apparently still doesn’t know how to pitch and so can’t be expected to help himself, though, I see him as a maximally risky sign, even on a one-year. Lowe’s at least as likely to COMPLETELY lose it as he is to have that fourth starter’s .500 winning percentage. And given that Lowe has never been able to string two comparable years back to back (with the exception of his quite mediocre ’03 followed by his thoroughly poor ’04), signing him _for four freakin’ years_ is a *yeeks!*. Now, McCourt <- Boston; Lowe (50 saves, 20 wins) <- Boston: I think that this is McCourt’s sign far more than Pauls deposition on his team design, sure. I think McCourt has pulled a “Hick” Tom Hicks, Darren Oliver/Chan Ho Park kind of sign here, though, and will be also hiring a personal asskicker in two years time, to give him an ‘uplifting moment’ whenever he hear’s Lowe’s name mentioned for the last two years of this wildly risky contract.
Ha-ha-ha! you put a _size limit_ on the comments, Bro’ Zumsteg. Not a bad idea, even if it hurts when I say that.
To finish #29, McCourt <- Boston; Lowe (50 saves, 20 wins): this reads as McCourt’s play, sure, more than Paul’s deposition on his team design. It sure looks like McCourt has pulled a “Hick” Tom Hicks Darren Oliver/Chan Ho Park, owners mandated leap in the dark on this one. I think that in the near future, McCourt will also be signing a personal asskicker to give him an ‘uplifting moment’ whenever Lowe’s name is mentioned during the last two years of this incredibly risky signing.
You know, after enough contracts where we say “that’s way too much money,” at some point we need to adjust our idea of what the market really is. Length of contract, though, is really the issue here. Lowe is old enough and has enough experience that we aren’t waiting for his “break-out” year. Lowe strikes me, playing armchair GM, as a great candidate for a one-year gamble to shore up the rotation and push the team over the edge, but not a good one for this kind of contract.
It’s hard to not thank our lucky stars the M’s didn’t hire Depodesta last year. Who knew?
After indirectly asking an NL scout about the Dodgers his one-word response says it all.
“Oy.”
They paid too much for OP, they are about to do even worse on Lowe, and they gave Kent and Drew the money that should have landed them Beltre and either Drew OR Kent.
Have they addressed their shallow bullpen at all?
Oh, and, they are paying out $8 mil to save $8 mil. Little redundant but hey, it’s not my money.
Bela, great to see you here. Happy New Year and all that. My thoughts exactly about Franklin and Lowe. Franklin is an extreme fly ball pitcher and Derek is a ground ball machine when he is not walking the ballpark. I am not sure I would want either of them on my starting staff. If I was Hargrove I would tell Bryan Price in words that can’t be used on this family oriented website to teach Ryan Franlin to throw a sinking fastball. With the infield he will have behind him in 05, if Franklin can get groundballs rather than flyballs, he will win. Ditto for Moyer and any other pitcher on that staff.
Dave, regarding DePo, in my mind he will have to go some to match the performance of Jim Bowden. Christian Guzman and Vinny Castilla on the left side of the Nationals infield is a tough act for any GM to beat regardless of whether he is saber or scount oriented. DePo has at least signed some talented players, though I do agree if I was McCourt I would want a better roster for the 100 million I was spending.
The Lowe deal seems likely fiscal insanity to me. Indeed, with the price of starting pitching, aren’t we better off spending any extra money we might have on our outfield defense. My dream is that the Mets win the Beltran sweepstakes, and then to save a few bucks would be willing to send us Cameron back for Winn or Ibanez. It’d cost us a few dollars, but I’m inclined to think we’d save more runs per dollar that way than chasing any of the remaining pitchers. Has anyone done an analysis of how many doubles, triples and homers Cameron would save over Winn? And how many runs that would translate into?
Hate to me too #29, but I have to agree; while the contract is certainly bad, the comparison between Lowe and Franklin is unfair in both directions. Franklin is a guy who has clearly worked his butt off to maximize his limited talent. Even if Franky puts it all together, he’s still a 5/6 starter, just like you said, a rubber-armed inning eater. DLowe on the other hand is an extremely talented headcase. Ask any Red Sox fan who watched him gesticulate wildly and pace around the mound with a scowl after every close ball four call, or after somebody behind him booted a grounder. (By the way, the argument about the defense behind him sounds good until you notice that Lowe’s record was actually worse after the Sox acquired Cabrera and Mientkiewicz (sp?)) Comparing Lowe to Franklin insults both Lowe’s talent and Franklin’s work ethic and persistence.
Regarding Paul DePo’s offseason, I don’t think it’s quite as bad as it looks if one digs a little deeper, but for the long-term I suspect that it’s _worse_ than it actually looks.
When he was hired, Paul had one of the worst rosters in MLB in my view; not the worst in talent, but it was super-expensive, poorly assorted in skill sets, with lots of guys either having age or injury-related performance declines, and a weak farm system. There weren’t more than five or six guys to hold onto for a core team in two years’ time, and DePod clearly has had the intention and received the OK from McCourt to dump the rest. Unfortunately (a word that comes up suspiciously often then + with ‘DePodesta’), Paul lost Beltre, Jackson hurt his arm, and he cut loose Cora, probably to save dough, so there’s three of the five-six gone, and the team no better for it.
That said, I think DePod had a clear design this offseason, to rebuild around a Stars and Scrubs model, a la SF (who IMO has REALLY had the worst offseason so far–signing much older _and_ less talented guys multi-year, yeesh). Here’s what I think DePo’s plan was to be:
Re-sign: Beltre, Od. Perez, W. Alvarez
Sign: J. D. Drew, J. Valentin, D. Lowe (owner mandate), E. Dessens, R. Ledee
Trade: S. Green (paying half of contract), B. Penny, K. Ishii. Throw in Yancy Brazoban or if necessary Edwin Jackson to make the deals go. Get back, J. Vasquez, some young arms, and just maybe a low-value catcher.
Dump: Shuey (broken), A. Cora (about to get expensive).
If this had worked, it actually would look not that bad at all, certainly better than ’04 Opening Day:
Starting nine, in no particular order: Beltre, Drew, Bradley, Valentin, Izturis, Choi, Werth, catcher [U-Pick], pitcher. Rotation: Weaver, Vazquez, Od. Perez, Nomo, Dessens. Bullpen: [you slot 'em in]. An even better defensive team; a reasonably rounded offense; still a solid pen; questions in the rotation (but they had those already); a few prospects; time bought to rebuild the farm system.
Unfortunately, it didn’t work. DePodesta misjudged Beltre, going for more years at fewer $$$ per, figuring that Boras would always come back to him (Paul DePod) for a rejiggered final offer if necessary. When this wasn’t going well, DePo hit the ejector button and signed Kent. Whether that finished off Adrian or not, I don’t know, but Beltre went. Oops. DePod tried to work a major deal with Green going and Vazquez coming as the principles. He badly misjudged _both_ guys, and couldn’t get either one to play their part in his design. Deuce of Oops. He went ahead and signed Lowe for ridiculous length, but again I think this is McCourt’s move, not Paul’s. If DePod can still find a way to trade Ishii or Nomo, he may yet be able to come out of the offseason on a net roster positive. The dollar figures for Perez and Lowe, and the contract length for Drew were all market driven: once the decision was made that these were must signs for LA this offseason, that’s what must be paid to sign them. Remember that the real overpayment by the Dodgers this offseason came AFTER Beltre got away and the press was all over Dodgers ownership and management. It wouldn’t surprise me if Paul was under a mandate to have the best offer on the table at the time of signing for the remaining guys he bid on for credibility reasons with the fan base and media. In other words, DePo was probably thrown on the mercy of the market once Beltre took the beltway, and we see where that lies now.
DePod’s long-term problems as a GM seem to me solveable in principle, but I can’t say offhand that I think he’s going to fix them. First, he’s trying to do too much to fast to fix the lousy roster a guy named Malone left him. Paul needs to slow down, and do ONE DEAL AT A TIME. Second, DePo has put on his best “Trader Billy’s the One” Beanie, and tried to work three, major trades, all of them very complicated, in July ’04, and these two in the offseason. But not once did he get his ducks in the row and make the deals in the right order, so unfortunately his grand designs came up one man short each time, leaving him lurching. Paul needs to slow down and do ONE DEAL AT A TIME, or be positively certain that all the players and all the FOs are on board when he wiggles his eyebrows.
The biggest problem seems to me that DePo is managing his roster, well, just like a fantasy league owner, with no regard to personality and contract issues, just moving statlines around. Paul completely misjudged Charlie Johnson, Adrian Beltre, Shawn Green, and Javier Vasquez: none of these guys were prepared to be jerked around for DePo’s greater good without getting something out of it, if then, and all of them had the leverage to tell DePo what he could do with his Powerpoint. Furthermore, DePo completely misjudged the reaction of the fanbase to the trade of LoDuca and Mota, and was blindsided by the fact that anyone else, well couldn’t see it _his_ way. This, to me, is the major problem with DePo as a GM: he needs a transplant of ‘people smarts.’ Theo Epstein has this by the bargeload; Billy the Beane has this, and moxie to spare. Bill Bavasi has more people smarts than _smart_ smarts, but at least folks feel that he’s a good joe to do a deal with. Since in DePod’s case it’s a personality issue more than one of brains and experience per se as I read it, I’m by no means sure that Paul is going to get his head on straight about this.
DePod seems to see what he likes to see, not who he’s looking at, or what they need to geek for his show. And that can be a big, big problem with an eight-figure budget to commit. If DePod had the overall design I speculate about regarding this offseason, frankly it wasn’t that bad a schema—but he didn’t pull it off, and that’s, well, not good. I think you can still argue that the Dodgers are a better team that when Paul took over. But he’s committed more of his owner’s financial flexibility already than most would have said existed to begin with, and he’s out of latitude: DePod’s next crack-up will do the roster permanent damage, so there’d better not be one for his own good.
Say there stan, reportedly Frankie already throws a sinker, or at least a two-seamer. Reportedly, it’s his best pitch (if his slider isn’t), so given the fact that he’s an extreme fly guy that tells us how ‘good’ his good is. If there’s a pitching coach alive who can or could reliably teach pitchers to throw a plus breaking pitch the guy doesn’t already have, said coach should be making $10M a year on an exclusive contract. Ryan’s pitches just don’t have much natural sink to them, and short of changing his _motion and arm slot_, I doubt that he could change this, if then. That’s not something a professional pitching coach would do to a guy involuntarily; certainly I don’t see Bryan approaching Frankie with any “What if . . .” on that. When Ryan drops out of the majors in two-three years time as he is all but certain to do, he may try some major rejigger like this, but it takes that kind of desperation for a guy to make a major alteration in his mechanics. I don’t see that happening otherwise.
Frankie’s going to put a lot of balls in the air, that’s the way it goes with him, I think. Like I said, I think pitching patterns are the best way, and probably the only way, for Franklin to enhance his skill set. Whether at Safeco (or, please, elsewhere), Ryan could well have a bounce back season in ’05, more to a 4.60 ERA and a five-slot innings eater. You can see why I’ve hoped the Ms would focus on an upgrade here. Pinero, Meche, and Madritsch are a reasonable fulcrum for the rotation, but I think Moyer’s done, and we have to pray for a rebound from Frankie. That’s two duds among five possibles, which is one too many but with Moyer signed and untradeable: Frankie’s the one on the ‘upgrade’ seat—but it hasn’t happened yet. His $ are guaranteed, so I don’t feel for him.
You know, after enough contracts where we say “that’s way too much money,†at some point we need to adjust our idea of what the market really is.
I’ve been working on a big post about this, and never found the right way to say it. Here’s the basic summary though:
The free agent market doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Deciding that $9 million is now a fair price for a mediocre 3rd or 4th starter because that’s the going rate is a lemming philosophy. Rather than putting our own reason and analysis to work, it’s assuming that everyone else’s is correct, and we’ll just fall in line as they run off the cliff.
The league minimum salary is set at $316,000 for 2005. That mark establishes a baseline, a floor so to speak, that theoretically should keep the free market in check. If you can get a Triple-A waiver claim to post 180 innings with a 5.80 ERA for $316,000, than there’s no rationale for paying $9 million to get 200 innings of a 5.20 ERA from a guy like Derek Lowe. The marginal increase in performance is simply not worth $8.7 million, regardless of what “the market” says.
If free agency was the only way to fill out a roster, yes, you’d have a point. We would need to adjust to the market. However, because of the existance of competitive markets for talent acquisition, we are not subject to paying “what the market will bear”. The middle class has become so ridiculously overpaid that the best way to build a roster in this market is to pay for superstars and fill out the roster with players whose contracts will be under club control.
No team is required to pay market rates for mid-range players simply because their colleagues have spent a lot of money badly. Using the alternative methods for filling out a roster, you can build a significantly better roster for less money.
You’ve been on that before – the math is questionable but the bottom line isn’t. You’re trying to position yourself to rip 90%+ of all contracts as brainless, and all 30 GM’s as dumb with one specific approach being the only way to go at it. The dog won’t hunt whatever math you throw at it.
Last time you tried that argument, you defined about 20 players as superstars, more or less saying that MLB clubs were dumb to touch anybody else.
You run into the very problem that you concede — that you wind up with unspent money, like finishing a Rotisserie draft with $70 of your $260 budget.
Carlos Beltran isn’t coming here. Even if he was, 29 other GM’s would be left with the problem of how not to leave $70 on the table at the end of the draft.
You might make your “MVP’s and org guys” work for ONE club, but it will never work when calculated across 30 clubs.
Actually, it appears that DePo is holding off on finalizing the Lowe contract until the Green deal is done. So if the Green deal falls through (and given Shawn’s demands, that seems quite possible) DePo might not go through with it.
On the subject of Lowe not having to pay for a beverage in Boston, I wonder if Mr. Mientkiewicz is planning on entering the witness protection program:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6798716/
Re: Franklin and Lowe, here’s the story. Franklin, .73 ground outs per fly out. Lowe, 3.36 (!!!!!!). Can you imagine Lowe with a decent infield? He might get his ratio up to 4 or more. Plus, he’ll be much more inclined to throw strikes. Maybe the Dodgers did overspend, but I don’t think the signing is near the disaster like, say, letting Beltre get away.
As a Sox fan here in Massachusetts, I’ve seen a lot of Lowe, like Murton and LB, above. I think the Sox will now have a chance to win against Baltimore again. They seemed to just kill Lowe.
Believe it or not, though I’m very happy that he’s no longer on the Sox and wouldn’t want them to give Lowe this same offer under any circumstances, I think this might work out okay for the Dodgers. Seriously.
There really are some pluses. Lowe seems like he has zero risk for injury. Almost no one throws a sinker that moves like his. Other guys throw power sinkers but Lowe’s is a bit slower with much more movement. He has a good curve that used to be his strikeout pitch. He gave up a couple game winners on rolling curves in 2001 (One to Jermaine Dye of KC at a game I attended. Not good times) and got away from throwing the curve. He can actually throw 90 mph albeit straight as a string when lefties, especially, are leaning over the plate looking to slap his sinker to left. He’s got a pretty good changeup, too.
He also said, in articles in the Boston papers at the time of the World Series that he had seen the benefits of preparing himself for starts in a different way than he had been preparing. There were no more specifics than that. Was he going to become a Schilling clone with notebooks galore? Was he at least going to dispel the rumors that he was fond of throwing back a few, or several? We don’t know. But there’s at least some chance that the Dodgers are getting a guy who is rededicated to his craft.
Another possible plus is that Lowe is going from perhaps the highest intensity market to one of the least intensity markets. Fan and media scrutiny will be a lot less. This may seem insignificant, but Lowe had an apparent weakness of falling apart once rallies started (Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster lists his percentage of runners allowed who are stranded as a league average 75% in 2002 followed by 69% then 67% the last two years).
“If you can get a Triple-A waiver claim to post 180 innings with a 5.80 ERA for $316,000, than there’s no rationale for paying $9 million to get 200 innings of a 5.20 ERA from a guy like Derek Lowe.”
What makes you think that he will post a 5.20 ERA? His DERA the past three years has been above average, and he’s an extreme groundball pitcher playing in a good park and with a great IF defense behind him(if you trust UZR). More on the park from MGL:
“Hmmm, I did some quick research. I compiled 2 groups of pitchers from all pitchers who pitched in 2001 to 2004. High FB and high GB. I arbitrarily took the 135 highest and lowest ground ball pitchers, or about 13% off each end (1000 pitchers total). A pitcher’s G/F ratio was his sample G/F ratio for 01-04 regressed towards league average (around 1.20), so the groups were presumably based on each pitcher’s approx. “true” G/F ratio.
I then looked at only LA pitchers for those years. I compared their ERC’s (component ERA’s) at home and on the road. I did thos for both groups, the FB and the GB pitchers. The results were amazing:
For gound ball pitchers, their composite NERC (weighted by the lesser of the 2 TBF’s) on the road was 3.78 and at home their composite ERC was 2.67, for a ratio of .71. The .71 corresponds to normal home field advantage plus park effects. Total PA’s were around 3600 at home and 3600 on the road.
For fly ball pitchers, their composite ERC on the road was 3.97, but at home, it was only 3.82 for a ratio of .96. Total PA’s at home and on the road were around 2000 each.
That is an amazing difference! A few things I did not like in the methodology (as I said, it was quick):
1) small samples
2) using in-sample testing (I should calculate the G/F ratios in separate years as the testing).
3) using only Dodger pitchers. Should also use visiting pitchers.
4) I did this quickly and there could be programming errors.”
Odalis Perez is a somewhat groundball pitcher. Lowe is an extreme groundball pitcher. Koplove, who DePo tried to get from AZ, is a groundball pitcher. Jose Valentin was the most flyball-ish hitter last year. Kent is a flyball hitter. Green is a GB hitter.
I am on board with Bill’s opinions here. Whether or not you agree with DePo’s moves, they are clearly made within a specific analytical framework (i.e. stats based analysis). They are not a patchwork of moves made without any specific plan.
Kent and Drew project to be amongst the best hitters at their positions in the coming year. In addition, both score very highly on defensive metrics like UZR. Valentin also receives high marks for his defensive ability. Beltre, for all the love he gets here, does not project to be as good a hitter as Drew next year.
I appreciate that many people feel that the framework that DePo is working from is somewhat flawed, but I would not mistake that for no idea/plan that he is following.
This deal seems even stranger to me now that Millwood has signedd with the Indians for 1 yeat 7 mill.
As an A’s fan I hate the Dodgers. It was ingrained in me the day Gibson turned on Eck’s slider. Even when Depo went to LA it didn’t do anything to change my feelings towards Dodger Blue. So I feel my objectivity is fairly intact when I say the criticism DePodesta has received for his various moves seems extreme. The Dodgers won their first division title in nearly a decade with him at the helm and that’s got to mean something. He’s tried to make trades for and with players that have no-trade clauses which makes it more likely that a deal will fall apart. Can anyone tell me why Charles Johnson wasn’t eager to leave his 3rd string role in Colorado for a starting job in LA? Wasn’t it a reasonable assumption on Depo’s part to believe that CJ would waive his no-trade? DePodesta shot for the moon by trying to acquire Randy Johnson from the 100 loss D’Backs but was shot down by the player, not the other team. Again it doesn’t seem like that great of a leap to believe that a pitcher of Randy’s competetive nature would be willing to leave Arizona for a contending team. Depo got nailed by the LA press when he traded Lo Duca, but when the guy hit .189 in September it was Florida that went into the tank and not the Dodgers. Penny pitched well until he got hurt by a freak injury. I’d call that bad luck and not incompetence. All that and the Dodger’s still won the division.
Now DePodesta’s getting hammered again for his offseason moves. He’s been criticized for not acquiring Hudson or Mulder when the fact is he didn’t have the players to trade for them! He had Edwin Jackson and a AAA infielder that made everyone wonder if what happens in Vegas was going to stay in Vegas. Consider Jackson/Werth/Perez vs the deals Beane ultimately got from St. Louis and Atlanta. LA was clearly the 3rd best offer on the table, and maybe not even that high when you consider what Baltimore was supposedly offering in a trade. A lot of people say he over-paid for Perez and potentially for Lowe. He did. It’s not like he set the market. The Benson, Wright and Pavano contracts all did that… thanks again New York. The Jeff Kent deal isn’t long enough to cause too much damage if he goes south and Valentin is a one year band-aid. It looks like Green is still going to end up in Arizona (or maybe not) but Depo has completed his end of the deal. Now it’s up to the D’Backs and Green’s agent.
So the biggest criticism left is Drew vs Beltre. I don’t like either player because Drew can’t stay healthy and Beltre had lousy seasons in 2001, 2002 ans 2003 before having an outstanding contract year. I’m not saying this to talk trash about the Mariners, again, I don’t like either player and neither one is worth the contracts they’re getting, but at least you’ve got a good idea what kind of hitter you have when Drew is on the field and I just can’t say the same about Beltre. It’s a gamble either way and I don’t think it right that Depo gets admonished while Bavasi gets praised, there should be a middle ground were both men get worried applause.
I’ll third Bill and Erik’s comments, DePo is not doing a bad job at all. WIth Finley gone, they should have a tremendous outfield defense, as his defense (using UZR) almost completely removes all of his offensive value. If Green is gone, you’re subtracting him and Finley for Werth and Drew, both good defensive OFs. Bill has already said that the infield defense should not be appreciably worse, as Valentin and Kent can be reasonably expected to be above average, and both can hit.
I do wonder about Lowe vs Millwood, but if Lowe can succeed anywhere, I’d think it’d be in Dodger Stadium with that defense. Bavasi has had a nice offseason, but we have to give some credit to the Dodgers for making the playoffs (and being the favorites to win the NL West next year, I think), even if it is a weak division.
Oh, and unless the Diamondbacks were contracted while I wasn’t looking, they’ve clearly had the worst offseason this year.
Bill’s citation on MGL’s study seem pretty relevant here, is there a source that has performed this research on a stadium by stadium basis, or done a study of this sort on a broader scale? I’m not sure how a groundballer would be so greatly affected by LA as a stadium aside from the defense, and reduced HR propensity. But .71 v. .96 is a pretty steep ERA cut for just Def & HR rates for GB to FB’ers. Is there an advantage in big foul ground usage for a GB’er. I don’t know enough about what the GB’ers in the study threw to say. But perhaps Lowe has such a repetoire. You can’t really have a riding sinker, although his change or a straighter curve, like was discussed earlier, might have the effect of a riding FB, when contrasted with a sat upon sinker, which could elicit the pop ups, and take advantage of that big foul zone.
As a Sox fan, I think Lowe is overvalued by this deal, but maybe leaving that small Fenway foul ground and a new willingness to throw those “playoff tested” secondary pitches will turn Lowe into the pitcher that the contract is paying for. In terms of the other offense acquisitions, they are all guys with 2/3 at least of the key LA park factors (D, walks, HR power). Slap hitters and even XBH type hitters are usually hurt in LA, so I think they are playing a solid, park factor is key, off season.
1 Did depo know something about the great year beltre had that made the dodgers not want to sign him ba ck??????Did bavasai and his crew buy something that depo and his camp new was a inflatted year by something are some needle?Things that make you think///