The Magglio deal

Dave · February 5, 2005 at 7:54 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

The Tigers are reportedly going to announce the signing of Magglio Ordonez to a 5 year, $75 million contract on Monday. You may remember Ordonez from earlier in the offseason, when there were rumors he’d have to settle for a one year contract after skipping out on his workout to prove to teams that his knee-you know, the one he flew to Europe to have experimental surgery on-was sound and would allow him to play. Or, you may remember Ordonez from his .292/.351/.485 line from 2004, which when translated for park effects, gave him a .281 EqA. Other corner outfielders who posted similar EqA’s last year include the immortal Craig Monroe, Jayson Werth, Dustan Mohr, and Charles Thomas. For a Mariner comparison, Raul Ibanez’s EqA was .291 and Randy Winn’s was .281.

But, that’s not really fair to Ordonez, right? He was hurt, after all, and from 2000-2003, he was remarkably consistent, posting EqA’s between .292 and .313. In 2003, he was more similar to guys like Dmitri Young, Trot Nixon, and Aubrey Huff. Unfortunately, Ordonez just turned 31, so his best days are most likely behind him, and we can expect him to decline from his peak value a bit.

In other words, even if he was healthy, we’d expect to him to be a little worse than the Nixon/Huff group of hitters, more comparable to Ibanez or Kevin Mench or Rondell White. And the Tigers just gave him a contract worth more than what Vladimir Guerrero received last offseason, more than J.D. Drew or Adrian Beltre received this offseason.

This isn’t just the worst deal of this offseason. This might be the worst free agent signing ever.


53 Responses to “The Magglio deal”

  1. RealRhino on February 7th, 2005 2:36 pm

    Oh, and to be fair, I think the initial post by Dave is a bit unfair in the suggestion that when he was healthy, Magglio produced at the level of Nixon, Huff and D. Young. (I know he said “more similar,” which may be true, but the clear point is to suggest they are near equals). Magglio was in a higher class than all three. Nixon’s last four healthy years he posted EqAs of .314, 272, .292 and .272, for an average of .2875. Maggs’ last four: .301, .313, .300, .292, for an average of .3015. That’s a big advantage. Huff’s last three averaged .295, which is closer. Young’s last four averaged .282, not even close.

    So he was a significantly better hitter than all three when he was healthy. He was also a better basestealer, better runner, and better defender than any of them.

    Now, he had stopped running very much, and it’s likely that he won’t run as well on the basepaths or in the OF, but if the game is to suggest that “even if he is healthy, the best the Tigers can expect for their $15 million is what Dmitri Young already gives them for $8 million….”, then the comparison is not valid. When he was healthy, he was much better than those guys.

  2. dan wilson to the hall on February 8th, 2005 6:12 am

    from the tigers’ standpoint you have to think that with the addition of magglio’s bat, you are now in contention. Its not a terrible move, i mean, everyone is getting grossly overpaid (Jeremy Burnitz, Mike Matheny, Guzman, Etc.). The tigers did what they needed to do to be competitive in what will probably be the closest (competition-wise) division in baseball. I like that they picked up mags, and I hope he plays all-star calibur ball, as he is capable of doing.

  3. Idiots Write About Sports on February 9th, 2005 11:07 pm
    Mags to Riches
    Over at USS Mariner, David Cameron takes four paragraphs to explain why Detroit’s gift to Magglio Ordonez of $75 million…