The Magglio deal
The Tigers are reportedly going to announce the signing of Magglio Ordonez to a 5 year, $75 million contract on Monday. You may remember Ordonez from earlier in the offseason, when there were rumors he’d have to settle for a one year contract after skipping out on his workout to prove to teams that his knee-you know, the one he flew to Europe to have experimental surgery on-was sound and would allow him to play. Or, you may remember Ordonez from his .292/.351/.485 line from 2004, which when translated for park effects, gave him a .281 EqA. Other corner outfielders who posted similar EqA’s last year include the immortal Craig Monroe, Jayson Werth, Dustan Mohr, and Charles Thomas. For a Mariner comparison, Raul Ibanez’s EqA was .291 and Randy Winn’s was .281.
But, that’s not really fair to Ordonez, right? He was hurt, after all, and from 2000-2003, he was remarkably consistent, posting EqA’s between .292 and .313. In 2003, he was more similar to guys like Dmitri Young, Trot Nixon, and Aubrey Huff. Unfortunately, Ordonez just turned 31, so his best days are most likely behind him, and we can expect him to decline from his peak value a bit.
In other words, even if he was healthy, we’d expect to him to be a little worse than the Nixon/Huff group of hitters, more comparable to Ibanez or Kevin Mench or Rondell White. And the Tigers just gave him a contract worth more than what Vladimir Guerrero received last offseason, more than J.D. Drew or Adrian Beltre received this offseason.
This isn’t just the worst deal of this offseason. This might be the worst free agent signing ever.
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53 Responses to “The Magglio deal”
At least it has an escape clause…
Let’s see some of those really, really bad contracts brought up, to put things in perspective. I agree that this one is up there, but for context, here are the worst I can remember–all pitchers, oddly–in no particular order:
Darren Dreifort
Chan Ho Park
Denny Neagle
Mike Hampton
Anyone remember the numbers on these?
for what it’s worth…
Under the complicated deal, Detroit would have the right to void the contract after the 2005 season if Ordonez has a reoccurrence of the left knee injury that hampered his production with the Chicago White Sox for most of last year and the reoccurrence lands him on the disabled list for 25 days or more.
(from espn)
#2
Yes but if he is healthy he still isn’t worth half of what he got.
It’s apparently got two option years too!
The knee injury is the least of their concerns right now.
First of all, it sounds like they only have an out if he gets the exact same injury in 2005 only – that is, if he gets some other kind of injury next year, they’re not covered, and if he gets the same injury in 2006 or later, they’re not covered.
But, again, that’s not the problem here. The issue is that he’s aging, declining, and has had his numbers significantly boosted by playing in Chicago all his life. The Tigers are paying $15m a year for a guy who could very easily hit .285/.350/.470 over the duration of the contract – and I think that’s being pretty generous.
The ‘bail after 2005 if his knee falls apart’ clause is pretty clearly why Detroit put ink on this contract. The contract is suprisingly low-risk in that regard.
On the other hand… 5 years for a 31-year-old hitter who made his reputation in an amazing hitter’s park and is likely to decline even if his leg stays attatched…. at $15 per…. ick. Ick, ick, ick. The comparisons to Drew and Beltre are well made, and also Beltran. I’m not the fan of Beltran that some are, but the contracts are so similar that it’s like asking if I’d rather have a 27-year-old CF with good speed and good defense or… Mags. *sob*
At this point, the best thing that could happen for Detroit is for Mags to, in fact, fall over again. That’d end Mags’ career, of course, and I don’t want that to happen. But if he stays healthy enough to avoid that clause, Detroit is screwed…
After Ordonez’ knee injury, I thought about writing a post about how sad it was that one of my favorite players — a durable, quality outfielder — would have his value virtually destroyed by getting hurt at the worst time. Glad I didn’t in retrospect, and Dave’s absolutely right about this deal.
Question: what possible motivation would Detroit have for giving him five years? They didn’t seem to be really competing with anyone. The Mets hinted they might get involved, but never did, and I assumed Magglio would be forced to take a “one year, prove you’re healthy and productive” contract.
I can’t see any justification for this deal.
Good God that’s a horrible, horrible deal. I wouldn’t wish it on any team not called the Yankees.
Speaking of the Yankees, this is the reason why, despite revenue sharing, etc., most of (not all of, mind you) the small-market teams never get anywhere. Whereas the NY teams and Boston can throw money at the absolute top of the market, and get strong performances in most cases (even if at a premium price), the “small(er) market” teams wind up paying damn near first-tier money for second- or third-tier players. The Yankees seem to have gotten away from that a bit this offseason with their curious Womack, Wright, and arguably Pavano signings, but in the general sense it seems pretty accurate as qualified above.
What in the world could Detroit be thinking? Much like the Sexson contract, this is too much money IF the player had been healthy in 2004 and repeated his 2003 season. And both had serious injuries.
If he’s not healthy, Detroit is paying $12M for one injured year. And even if he is 100%, down the road they’re paying $15-18 per year, which is all-star money, for an average RF (at best).
Do some teams simply not believe in ballpark effects or that player production declines as they age? They’re basically paying Ordonez as if he could repeat his 29 y.o. stat line for the next five years.
Darren Dreifort – $55 million / five years
Chan Ho Park – $65 million / five years
Mike Hampton – $121 million / eight years
Denny Neagle – $51.5 million / five years
The Rockies should be out from under Neagle’s fifth year though thanks to his convenient (from the Rockies’ standpoint) DUIs and sexual exploits.
One thing to keep in mind, Hampton and Neagle signed those contracts with the Rockies within a week of each other. Magglio’s contract being the worst in free agent history is debatable, but they’ve definitely got a lot to do in the next few days if they want to make a run at worst week of free agent signing in history.
Oh, come on, you guys. “Worst ever?” Would it kill you to not rag incessantly on front offices or, failing that, to go easy on the hysteria once in a while?
Just off the top of my head:
Chan Ho Park (as mentioned), Kevin Jarvis, Dreifort, Neagle, and Hampton (also mentioned), and Wilson f’ing Alvzrez– good Lord, how could I possibly have forgotten Wilson Alvarez? “But ah,” you say, “all of these are pitchers.”
OK, let’s talk about position players. Damion Easley. Pat Meares. Hey, how about a steaming pile of Mike Matheny? Speaking of steaming piles, have you checked out Cristian Guzman’s contract? Take a gander at Kevin Young’s salaries over at baseball-reference.com.
“But,” you object, “none of those guys were like Ordonez.” True! None of them were established star-level contributors in the major leagues at the time of their signings. But even among players who /were/, here are some worse contracts: how about Mo Vaughn? Mo Vaughn was the How does Jua Gonzalez strike you?
In the contract-extension department: Raul Mondesi. Shawn Green, speaking of former Dodgers– check out his offensive trend the last two years, and have fun imagining what his production will be like at the end of his current contract.
And I haven’t even mentioned Ruben Sierra yet.
Good grief. USS Mariner needs to collectively take a hit from its inhaler and repeat, “There is no need to fling terms like ‘worst ever’ around. Rational discourse isn’t served by wild, reflexive exaggeration.”
Just something I’ve had on my chest for a while.
Yikes. “Mo Vaughn was the…” should end in, “… highest-paid player in the NL in 2003.”
But, yes. Please stop hyperventilating. Between this site and Baseball Primer, I really wonder whether my fellow statheads are trying to /make/ points or just /score/ points.
Well I agree it’s probably not the worst signing ever, but the other info Dave provided is what I come to this sight for (like yourself Skippy) so quit knit-picking and take a chill pill buddy.
I’d hate to be a Tigers fan right now.
#13 Of course people are going to start saying its the worst ever. Gut reaction, you know? It would take a lot to beat Mo Vaughn anyway. The scary part is if he stays just healthy enough they could be paying him at age 38 $15 million plus. All of a sudden I can’t wait for hockey to come back again.
Yay! I am out of the moderation clause!
All I have to say about this…albatross.
Re #13:
Don’t forget about a certain Outfielder the Tigers already have…goes by Bobby Higginson.
What is a worse deal sexson are orddonz?Magglio has been pretty consistent for 5 years with better overall #s then sexson and they both got hurt last year.Whos to say who if either will get hurt this year?I like the deal better then sexsons atleast they have a out if the injury reaccures.What do you think?
Well, in hindsight, I’m sure Cincy fans would probably trade Griffey’s contract for Ordonez’. Of course, that’s in hindsight — at the time, it appeared to be a fairly decent deal, considering the mega-contracts doled out at the time.
It’s insane but not surprising in this market. I mean, if Glaus, Sexson and Percival all got contracts longer than a year, why wouldn’t we have expected Maggs to get one, too? I do bet that Nomar is kicking himself at least a little for jumping on the short line in Chicago…
It’s just a reminder that Scott Boras is, well, Scott Boras, and not the “nice guy” he appeared to be in giving us Beltre’s deal.
Detroit FO might feel the need to sign a big name whether this big name can justify that contract or not. It is more a show for their fan base at a big price.
At this point, I have to admit Boras really is something. Maybe he would represent me to negotiate my next raise. lol
I heard about this deal on TV yesterday, and I literally burst out laughing.
How is it that as the off-season drags on, the deals for successively poorer free agents get richer and richer? Most teams have signed the guys they want, so there should be less competition driving up the price. This reminds me of Ivan Rodriguez’s deal last year, when Detroit gave him 4/40 even though they were the only ones bidding.
Um, I think there are two contracts that have yet to been mentioned that eclipse the idiocy of what Magglio Ordonez’s deal, with those two contracts being that of: Bobby Bonilla and Greg Hibbard.
At least I-Rod’s 4/40 deal might turn out to be worth it…
Uh, note the usage of “might be the worst ever”.
Magglio’s deal’s still a trainwreck waiting to happen, even if it doesn’t prove to be the worst ever. Also note that Vaughn, while overpaid, wasn’t coming off of knee surgeries (almost none of the guys mentioned were coming off of serious injuries), and he was good enough during the deal to get flipped for Kevin Appier- so the White Sox might not be as screwed as you think.
Oh yeah, check out Ordonez’s age-similar comps on Baseballreference.com.
Fred Lynn
Danny Tartabull
Tim Salmon
Larry Walker
Jason Giambi
Let’s see, that’s 5 out of 10 reasonably recent players who’ve had, for one reason or another, major injury problems after age 31 (all of them have missed BIG chunks of seasons).
Uh, yeah, Detroit’s insane. Dombrowski better hope Ordonez performs well for a year or two so he can flip him…
I wouldn’t pay Magglio that much even if he was healthy in his prime.
For my money, Darren Dreifort’s deal is the worst-advised deal of all-time.
Say what you want about Ordonez’s comparables, the liklihood of his next five seasons matching his peak, and the unprecedented nature of his injury–I’ll nod, agree wholeheartedly.
Ordonez, however, has at the very least some claim to the money he’s about to earn. He’s in decline, granted, but at least has some history of above-average major-league contributions, and (last-line defense of the desperate franchise, I know) the kind of name recognition that sells at least a few fans on the idea that their team is trying to be competitive. Obviously, nowhere near enough to make up for the amount of money he will be paid, but some nonetheless.
The Dodgers can offer no such defense. Dreifort’s three “best” seasons came in 1998-2000, the three years preceding the signing of his five year, $55 million contract. The numbers that brought that cash in (using actual stats since I don’t want to assume that the man who offered this contract even considered using more advanced metrics)?
1998: 180 IP, 8-12, 4.00 ERA, 168 K, 57 BB
1999: 178 IP, 13-13, 4.79 ERA, 140 K, 76 BB
2000: 192 IP, 12-9, 4.16 ERA, 164 K, 87 BB
It’s well-documented that Dreifort has had injury troubles in the first four seasons of his contract (he’s pitched a total of 204 innings in that time), and he is expected to miss the entire 2005 season as well.
Dreifort had no track record to suggest that he was worth the money he signed for, had a history of arm troubles already in his back pocket, and has since proven to be an even worse gamble than could have been expected at the time.
Time may prove me wrong, but I’m willing to take anyone’s bet that Ordonez will provide more value on the dollar for the life of his contract than Dreifort has any hope left of doing as he rehabilitates from his fourth surgery since the end of last season.
It seems to me that the Tigers, having struck out on all of their other FA pursuits (besides Percival), got scared the Cubs would muscle into the Ordonez bidding and so Dombrowski threw a bunch of $$ at him to sign.
Mags may be useful for the next 5 years. Heck, he may be an all-star for a couple of them. But the only reason he’s worth this kind of $$ is that he’s the last “name” FA available, and the Tigers were in desperate need of a “name” to add to their team.
Boy… What a terrible move!
The out after 2005 if like injury reoccurs makes it not such a huge gamble. Still quite unrealistic although Cirillo is quite sickening.
It does reinforce the hope that Beltre appears to be the steal of the free agent signings. And the M’s are the beneficuaries. A great signing…
It’s only during 2005, though, so if his knee goes pfft in 2006, well, tough for the Tigers.
And yeah, Driefort’s a disaster. My god. 55 million dollars for about one season of work?
What if sexsons shoulder goes poof 3 weeks into the season like it did last year the mariners have no protection at all so i think mags deal is better then sexsons!!!
The comment spammer question just ate my response.
Anyway, Maggs is a bad terrible contract, but he’s also been a better player than Trot and Huff. Without the injury, the level of overpayment wouldn’t be remarkable, much less “historically” bad.
Detroit sure learned the wrong lesson from Juan gonzalez’ spurning of their $140 million offer, didn’t they? The franchise needs self-esteem counseling, or something.
At some point, one would think that overpaying to this extent would start to have a NEGATIVE effect on potential free agents. One overly generous contract could signal a willingness to compete. Repeated attempts could well make potential free agents ask themselves just how bad things are in Detroit.
I don’t understand how repeated overpaying could signal a bad situation, Coach.
Examples don’t prove a point but the Yankees have overpaid for many players and players still want to go to the Bronx.
Huge difference Paul – New York wins.
I think its well understood that the Yankees have a unique situtation in terms of revenue available to them due to the Market they serve as well as an obsessive ownership. That’s been so well documented that the concept I’m suggesting would clearly not apply to them. Detroit, however, has no such histroy.
A friend of mine from the Ukraine used to describe to me the incentives offered to Military volunteers (unusually high pay; short service time) to go into Chernobyl. It’s that type of mentality, although I’ve given you an extreme example. I think its reasonable to assume that players, or at least their agents, also see that Detroit has been overpaying. Blogs like this don’t have a monopoly on that assessment. Is it so unreasonable to assume that a player might just conclude that such a pattern of overpayment (in Detroit) has more to do with compnsation for a terrible environment as opposed to a flattereing assessment of the player’s worth?
The biggest advantage the Yankees derive from their payroll is the ability to spend through mistakes. If they waste $75 million on a guy who sucks, they can just go out and sign a replacement. Detroit can’t do that.
So, one of the best ways to neutralise the Yankees’ advantage is to sign guys who aren’t a huge drag on your team.
For comparison’s sake, Sexson’s EqA (lifetime) is .287. His last 4 full years, though, ranged from .291 to .307. Which makes him comparable to the good Magglio, with similar age and injury issues.
But his contract is somewhat smaller and a year shorter. The escape clause in Magglio’s contract, though, has to be factored in.
I don’t like the Sexson contract and I think Magglio’s is probably worse but not hugely so.
I’m not sure it’s fair to compare hitter’s contracts with pitchers because the injury issues are so different. All pitchers are ticking time bombs and that’s just a chance you take when you sign a pitcher as a free agent.
A pattern of overspending also causes a problem when you try to reign the overspending in. Free agents are likely to be insulted when you offer them a market reasonable contract that is significantly less that the player you signed the year before. If you always overspend players will expect you to overspend on them and be insulted if you don’t.
As a Tigers’ fan, let me say this:
I am fine with this deal.
Is it too much money, for too many years for a guy who just recovered form an injury?
In a perfect world, yes, a million times over.
But:
The Tigers are a a lot better today than yesterday. They have a league average pitching staff (see Jay Jaffe’s DIPS ERAs). They might have the best offense in the Central (Note that I used the word “might”). Which leads to the fact that they can compete in the Central. The relative importance of this fact generally eludes those who do not live in Michigan.
In order of popularity the Tigers were behind the Lions, the Pistons, the Red Wings, Michigan football, and maybe even Michigan St. basketball. Moreover, the Tigers were an embarrassment of a franchise.
Winning has helped. It has helped a lot. Attendance was up, but the numbers don’t tell the whole story. The Tigers were actually competetive, something which they have not been in a long time. The interest in the team grew, and Illitch needs to maintain that momentum. The NHL lockout certainly doesn’t help him. He needs wins and he needs names.
This team needs name players who also help the team. So they go after Beltre, Drew, Pavano, etc., but they come in second or third. Why? I don’t know. Maybe the market changed or players didn’t want to come to Detroit. It seems as if the Tigers are in a position now where they have to gamble on injured name players in order to get them to Detroit. So they signed Maggs.
I am so okay with that.
Who is he blocking? No one. The Tigers just hired a new draft guy from Boston. He has his work cut out for him. They opened a couple acadamies in Latin America. Maybe they should draft some tough signs and pay them over the suggested figures.
Two things: The first is that Magglio Ordonez is a sure thing (relatively speaking) and none of those picks are. The second (and more important) is that the Tigers can’t wait. I don’t want to wait. I am glad they seem to be pouring money into the system (hallelujah!), but Tiger fnas haven’t even been able to cling to the hope that if things break right the team can win the Central. The question has always been: Are they better or worse than 100 games? That is a horrible, horrible place to be in as a fan. With Pudge, Maggs, and Percival I can at least defend the position that my team might win the division.
Which leads to the final point… its not my money and Mike Illitch will not hesitate to spend in the future. The Tigers could easily match the Mariners in payroll every year if the Tigers were competetive. The Tigers have 5 players under contract for 2006.
In summation: He makes the Tigers better. + He won’t hurt their payroll. + He doesn’t hinder the progress of prospects. + It’s not my money. = Happy Justin.
Best.
In this respect, I think Richie’s risk is more like a pitcher, while Magglio’s risk is more like a hitter.
Magglio faces the risk of steady degredation, resulting in repeated DL time and lost production. Sexson’s health has been generally very good, save the catastrophic failure of his left shoulder twice last season. Sexson (like a pitcher) is a ticking time bomb, and he may never explode. But when he does… he’s out for a season at a time.
I encourage everyone to submit Richie Sexson questions to Will Carroll for his chat at BP, today. I’d love to hear his take on Richie’s injury risk.
Ralph, I think it’s completely fair to judge the contracts of hitters and pitchers side by side. Even if recent history shows that it’s easier to make a huge mistake on pitcher, the bottom line should be what did the team pay, and what did the player produce?
As Evan said, the difference is that with hitters the primary downside is usually decline, and with pitchers the primary downside is catastrophic failure.
Which means that a bad pitching contract is a complete disaster (Alvarez, Dreifort). A bad hitting contract might be a guy who can still play but who isn’t worth what you are paying him.
Mo Vaughn and Albert Belle being perhaps the exceptions to that.
Justin, I’m glad you feel good about this but you have to consider the potential downside of overpaying a guy. A huge contract like this can become a noose around a franchise’s neck for years to come. It’s great to say the team is better than it was yesterday, but will it then make the team worse in 2007-8-9? A few of these kind of mistakes can put a team in the cellar for years.
One thing that should be non-controversial: how good does this make the Vladimir Guerrero deal look from the Angels’ perspective?
#42/Justin,
I bought a Tiger’s cap last season because they were out there mixing it up and markedly improved. That and they took a great SS out of the Mariners who clearly didn’t appreciate Carlos.
I hear you, despite what the numbers say and what common sense is thrown out the window, some of us (me specifically) want to see these flyers take wing. I hope Mags tears it up in Detroit, I look forward to seeing him at the Safe. I hope Sexson launchs a ball out of Safeco. I pray that Villone will hold steady from the pen for two years.
Otherwise, this game, this entertainment, becomes to staid and clinical. I watch baseball because I like baseball. I love the game, the drama and players. I like that on any given day, any team can beat another and it happens with regularity.
Oh, yeah. I thought the Angels got a great deal last year, and this year only drives that point home.
I still wonder why Vlad didn’t get more attention. The man’s an MVP-calibre player, and his style of play is exciting to watch on an everyday basis, and yet he got the contract of a mid-tier free agent.
I really think his market value was hurt by playing in Montréal under MLB ownership. No one saw him play, and no one promoted him.
A bad hitting contract might be a guy who can still play but who isn’t worth what you are paying him.
For my rebuttal, I’d like to introduce exhibit A, Jeff Cirillo, and exhibit B, Scott Spiezio…
The total trainwreck as a hitter after age 30-31 is more common than you might think. Every so often, players just drop off the face of the earth as hitters, going WELL below replacement value (think Greg Vaughn his last couple of years).
Spiezio’s chances of “bouncing back” (to being a decent part-time player) would be a lot better if his positons weren’t manned by the flashy FA signings of the offseason. It’s hard for me to see how he gets playing time, especially since Hargrove’s made noises that he wants a fairly fixed lineup.
People knew who Vlad was. His deal is evidence that there are many factors out there that are hard to quantify. Maybe GMs were more worried about his back injuries than people thought (heck, maybe his success this year made THIS year’s GMs less worried about THIS year’s FA’s injury risks). Maybe the market was artificially small because Vlad limited his choices. Maybe there really was a crusade of financial flexibility. Who knows?
Regarding Magglio and bad deals, you still have to compare apples to apples. I know we’ve done this before, but you have to compare the money vs. the likelihood the player would produce at the time of the signing, not via hindsight. Mo Vaughn wasn’t a catastrophically bad deal at the time; it only became so after his knee blew up. Chan Ho Park’s deal wasn’t completely ridiculous at the time it was signed. Sure, maybe they didn’t apply park effects well enough, but by any meausure he still should have been a better than average pitcher who struck out a lot of guys, as opposed to returning zero on a $90 million contract.
Still, this looks like a bad deal. Even in the current market they are paying Magglio $3-5 million more per year than they should have to WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT injury risk. The out clause is the only thing that saves this deal at all.
Oh, and to be fair, I think the initial post by Dave is a bit unfair in the suggestion that when he was healthy, Magglio produced at the level of Nixon, Huff and D. Young. (I know he said “more similar,” which may be true, but the clear point is to suggest they are near equals). Magglio was in a higher class than all three. Nixon’s last four healthy years he posted EqAs of .314, 272, .292 and .272, for an average of .2875. Maggs’ last four: .301, .313, .300, .292, for an average of .3015. That’s a big advantage. Huff’s last three averaged .295, which is closer. Young’s last four averaged .282, not even close.
So he was a significantly better hitter than all three when he was healthy. He was also a better basestealer, better runner, and better defender than any of them.
Now, he had stopped running very much, and it’s likely that he won’t run as well on the basepaths or in the OF, but if the game is to suggest that “even if he is healthy, the best the Tigers can expect for their $15 million is what Dmitri Young already gives them for $8 million….”, then the comparison is not valid. When he was healthy, he was much better than those guys.
from the tigers’ standpoint you have to think that with the addition of magglio’s bat, you are now in contention. Its not a terrible move, i mean, everyone is getting grossly overpaid (Jeremy Burnitz, Mike Matheny, Guzman, Etc.). The tigers did what they needed to do to be competitive in what will probably be the closest (competition-wise) division in baseball. I like that they picked up mags, and I hope he plays all-star calibur ball, as he is capable of doing.
Over at USS Mariner, David Cameron takes four paragraphs to explain why Detroit’s gift to Magglio Ordonez of $75 million…