Good stuff from Jeff Sullivan

Dave · March 2, 2005 at 5:22 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

I know we have Lookout Landing linked as part of the blogosphere, but I wanted to throw Jeff Sullivan some extra love here on the main page. He’s been doing some terrific stuff lately, and if you don’t check over that often, you’ve probably missed some of it. The most fun reads have been his evaluations of each starting pitcher. If you haven’t checked them out yet, go now:

Gil Meche

Jamie Moyer

Joel Pineiro

Bobby Madritsch



8 Responses to “Good stuff from Jeff Sullivan”

  1. Matt Staples on March 2nd, 2005 7:15 pm

    That analysis of Meche is beyond anything to date that I’ve read … great job, JS. I look forward to reading the others.

  2. firova on March 2nd, 2005 7:35 pm

    Amazing stuff. Regarding Moyer, I wonder whether he lost command of the corners in part due to umpiring. Did they call him differently last year? When he gave up a few dingers did it send some kind of self-fulfilling prophecy to the umps that this guy doesn’t command the strike zone anymore? Glavine had major problems a few years ago when the strike zone changed–has anyone heard anything about this with regards to 2004 Moyer? I’m sure he wouldn’t use it as an excuse, but the problems pitching from behind in the count make me think he just wasn’t getting the calls anymore. The 44 homers are all on him, though. Ugh.

  3. jim on March 2nd, 2005 8:41 pm

    I agree that Lookout Landing is where I now go for serious Mariner baseball commentary.

  4. firova on March 3rd, 2005 5:06 am

    Incredibly, my strike zone question was addressed this morning in a Jim Moore column, of all places. But what a canyon of difference between Lookout Landing and Go 2 Guy, whom I rarely read. I wonder what Moyer’s Questec/nonQuestec splits look like? Does anyone have access to this information? I guess the real issue is inconsistency; he suggests that switching back and forth hurts his game.

  5. paul mocker on March 3rd, 2005 8:39 am

    Feel the love for Jaime! A prediction of mid 4’s ERA seems surprising.

    I wonder if a better prediction would be to use percentiles such as this:

    25% chance: ERA 4.0 to 4.5
    25% chance: ERA 4.5 to 5.0
    25% chance: ERA Above 5
    25% chance: Early retirement.

    It seems that given his age and horrible 2004 the spectrum of possibilities is better represented this way.

    As this is spring hope is in the air, and some of you are hoping for 90+ wins. Without disussing whether that is rational, an interesting question is: What would have to occur to achieve 90+ wins?

    What would have to happen to Moyer for the team to achieve that mark? Without putting much thought into it, I feel that he either has to be far better than an average pitcher or far worse. If he is far better, such as a return to 2001-2002 performance, that means he is beating the Angels and A’s. If he is far worse, he retires early and we left Felix have a couple months.

    If he has an ERA of 4.8 to 5.6, extremely likely, he isn’t doing the team much good but he isn’t so bad that they drop him out of the rotation.

    BTW, the Meche write up was very informative. He is a tough one to prediect but your conclusion seemed to be right.

  6. chris w on March 3rd, 2005 8:56 am

    One thing I have been gradually realizing, which these excellent analyses confirm, is that the Ms defense + Safeco field has helped the pitchers more than most people realize. Everyone has known that the defense is good, but I don’t think people have realized how much benefit it has really been. It gives me hope for this year, although I do think the Ms should really try to find a flycatcher for CF if it turns out that Reed’s only mediocre. With Cameron in CF (for *example* – I know it’s not going to happen), I can see the defense knocking a run off the collective Ms’ ERAs.

  7. DMZ on March 3rd, 2005 9:14 am

    The Meche article is contained, in mini form, in the Meche player comment in BP05.

  8. JMB on March 3rd, 2005 9:58 am

    Ah, Jim Moore. That’s all I’m going to say.