The draft, Moyer
My column this week in the PI is on this year’s draft, and probably should have just been written by Dave.
Moore writes about Moyer’s attempt to come back which attempts to put part of the blame on Questec.
More than most pitchers, Moyer is hurt by QuesTec, a computerized monitoring system in use at selected ballparks. Though Safeco Field is not one of them, umpires’ strike zones are affected everywhere by the system, entering its third year.
Here’s a thought, Moore: perhaps you could actually look up Moyer’s splits and figure out if he was significantly better or worse in Questec parks.
Tropicana Field 7.11 ERA in 6 IP
Jacobs Field 1.29 ERA in 7 IP
Edison Field 4.50 ERA in 6 IP
Network Associates Coliseum 5.29 ERA in 17 IP
Yankee Stadium 10.13 in 5.1 IP
(no stats: BOB, Fenway, Miller, Minute Maid, Shea)
That’s about an even 5 ERA for his time in those parks.
Which– whoops, it’s lower than his season total.
How hard is that to check? Really. There’s another point here about there being different strike zones, which has been refuted elsewhere — aaaaaaand update, I’ve got the URL.
The numbers above suggest that 0.21 percent of pitches are called differently between QuesTec games and non-QuesTec games. That works out to about one altered pitch call per 475 pitches thrown — roughly one every other game. Using the strict standards that are favored by the scientific community, the differences above cannot be said to be statistically significant.
The article’s here. Note that there are umps who call more strikes in Questec parks, which would be to Moyer’s advantage. At that point, though, you’re looking at other factors potentially having a much greater affect on the lines than Questec would, and those should be taken with a huuuge amount of skepticism. Any ump, like any pitcher, could show dramatic variations in their calls given any 10-stadium selection for splits.
Comments
39 Responses to “The draft, Moyer”
You can delete this after you read it, but the Moyer link doesn’t work – there’s a period (“.”) at the end of the URL that screws it up.
Moore is not a real columnist (although he does attempt to be in this article).
(fixed the link, thanks)
What makes a “real columnist”?
This is why I love this website! You guys nail the reporters for being lazy. I know there’s deadlines and all, but come on, how hard was it for Derek to find the stats?
Isn’t Moyer’s (not Moore’s) claim that the existence of QuesTec is affecting the strike zones of all umpires, even when they’re not in QuesTec parks? Moore could hardly fact-check this claim, given that it is Moyer’s subjective judgment. I suppose he could have watched game tapes for some 15-20 games that Moyer pitched in, and made his own subjective judgment. But then he probably doesn’t make deadline.
Why is it that every 3rd post these days is just an axe grinding? Be magnaimous; not everyone has as many keen insights as the USS Mariner crew does.
I gotta tell you, Derek, that was the first column where it seemed you had an axe to grind and weren’t going to let the facts get in the way of a good story. Specifically, I thought you were unfairly harsh in your criticism of recent Mariners drafts. I mean, using the fact that Matt Tui will have to move off of SS as the basis for including his selection among the “years and years” of draft picks that were “wasted?” By most accounts, that selection is looking pretty good. He’s got some holes (are there many HS hitters that don’t?), but he looked about as good as you could look in your first year of pro ball with the bat in his hands. Whether it’s at 3B or RF or elsewhere, I don’t know how you criticize this selection. In fact, this looks precisely like the intended consequence of the strategy you claim the M’s employed over the last five years: draft a high-leverage pick and pay him enough to get him out of college. It worked. Give them credit for this one.
I similarly think you were a little harsh regarding Adam Jones. He’s still just 19. He hasn’t been brilliant, but he hasn’t looked completely lost, either. And he’s got time to get better, just hitting High A this year.
What’s strange is that you then give credit to the Royals by claiming they’ve drafted well in recent years. Which years were those? Since you limited discussion of the M’s drafts to their highest picks, I assume you aren’t talking about late-round finds. So really, we are talking about Zach Greinke and (maybe) Billy Butler. Total. In the last five years or so. While we’ve seen them waste picks on Colt Griffin and Roscoe Crosby, among others. Chris Lubanski’s numbers at Low A didn’t really look any better than Jones’s, and he’s a year older. Mitch Maier didn’t do much as a 22-year old. Maybe that was a throwaway line, but it really stuck out when contrasted to the claims about the M’s recent drafts.
I agree that the M’s have done a terrible job in the past five years. But I think they are owed some credit for the Matt Tui pick, just as you would give the Royals some credit for Greinke saving their draft record in recent years (I understand that Greinke has proven a lot more at this point). And I don’t think the #3 choice is that difficult at all, unless Upton and Gordon are both gone.
3. What makes a real columnist?
The abjuration of buffoonery. The disinclination to be glib, ill-informed, or to write on largely asinine topics. I find the ‘GoTo Guy’s’ brand of journalism repugnant. I’d rather listen to two 14 year olds speak ‘critically’ about the game, or anything for that matter. His grinning emptiness is what drives discerning readers to…well, to BP, to USSMariner, etc.–tho I am certain someone in sales could tell all about how his folksy crap “sells papers”…which cubes my feeling of repugnance.
Isn’t Moyer’s (not Moore’s) claim that the existence of QuesTec is affecting the strike zones of all umpires, even when they’re not in QuesTec parks? Moore could hardly fact-check this claim, given that it is Moyer’s subjective judgment. I suppose he could have watched game tapes for some 15-20 games that Moyer pitched in, and made his own subjective judgment. But then he probably doesn’t make deadline.
Not really, no.
Yes, you could. People have done it.
Here’s the important part: you should not make a claim you can’t reasonably research and back up, even if it’s only with anecdotal evidence. You should instead make no argument at all.
On another comment:
gotta tell you, Derek, that was the first column where it seemed you had an axe to grind and weren’t going to let the facts get in the way of a good story. Specifically, I thought you were unfairly harsh in your criticism of recent Mariners drafts. I mean, using the fact that Matt Tui will have to move off of SS as the basis for including his selection among the “years and years†of draft picks that were “wasted?†By most accounts, that selection is looking pretty good.
I’m sorry you feel that way. But the Mattox drafts have been terrible, top to bottom, and there’s really no way around this. It’s why the system’s in trouble.
As for “Tui” I guess we’ll have to disagree there. I don’t understand the hype at all: his defense at short is awful and he’s got no idea what he’s doing at the plate and looked terrible in Everett. I think the most generous thing we can do is withhold judgement, but that’s not a no-brainer success story, and certainly not yet.
he looked about as good as you could look in your first year of pro ball with the bat in his hands.
… no. That’s just not true. Many picks hit much better than that in their first year.
On Adam Jones:
He hasn’t been brilliant, but he hasn’t looked completely lost, either.
You can go look at his line again if you like. He strikes out all the time, already. He’s not displaying any kind of skill set that will translate to the majors, and minor leaguers with that kind of K rate get consumed and destroyed as they move up the system.
I agree that the M’s have done a terrible job in the past five years.
Aaaaaaaand yet I have some kind of axe to grind about the draft? I don’t get it.
The M’s drafts have turned out terribly for years. There’s just no two ways about this — any way you care to evaluate it, they haven’t done well in any Mattox draft.
“Before, you’d know if they were pitchers’ umpires or hitters’ umpires. Now they’re QuesTec umpires.”
Moyer said strike calls have improved inside and out, but low strikes are being missed.
“It does affect me, because that’s where I pitch,” he said.
Those are Moyer’s quotes. It sounds like he (and not Moore) is claiming that QuesTec is causing umpires to raise their strike zones. What you quote above is Moore’s lead-in to Moyer’s quotes, which was, I believe, a necessary device to introduce QuesTec into the article. Otherwise, there’s no context when Moyer starts blabbing about it.
So perhaps you haven’t made any claims that you were too lazy to fact-check. But at the very least you’ve distorted the tenor of this piece in order to….what? Knock Moore down a peg? Prove your inate superiority as a baseball writer? Fine. I’d rather read your stuff than Moore’s. He normally annoys the crap out of me. But as of yet I’ve never seen him say, ‘Boy that D. Zumsteg is a hack” (and maybe, based on #6’s thoughtful comments, he has some ground to walk on there–not much, but some). Yet the invective towards our local beat-writers hardly lets up in this space. Move on; you’re better than that.
G2G: “Moyer does not tolerate dumb questions and snaps at dumb-question askers, so I usually stay away from his locker because I prefer merriment to wrath.”
That’s okay Go-2; at least Groz and Gas think you’re cool.
What you quote above is Moore’s lead-in to Moyer’s quotes, which was, I believe, a necessary device to introduce QuesTec into the article. Otherwise, there’s no context when Moyer starts blabbing about it.
Again, from the article:
Moore doesn’t say “Moyer says that he’s…” or “Moyer speculates that..” or even “Moyer may be”. That’s a flat assertion that’s wrong.
So perhaps you haven’t made any claims that you were too lazy to fact-check. But at the very least you’ve distorted the tenor of this piece in order to….what? Knock Moore down a peg? Prove your inate superiority as a baseball writer?
I resent this. I did not make up that quote, lead-in or not. I did not fabricate the assertion that Moyer is “more hurt” than other pitchers. There is no distortion here. I’m not being clever with the […] or twisting his words.
If you want to argue I shouldn’t be pointing out that these kinds of assertions are badly supported and wrong, I’m okay with that. But to say that I’m distorting things in order to make myself look good? That’s uncalled for.
I guess I underestimate Moore’s ability to isolate QuesTec as the problem. It seems pretty obvious to me that he’s just parroting Moyer on this.
The second sentence of Moore’s quote you cite is exactly what Moyer says in the first sentence I quoted. Do you think Moore developed his own independent judgment of the way QuesTec is affecting major league pitchers? No, he asked Moyer, Moyer said it raises the strike zone, and so Moore says “umpirer’s strike zones are affect everywhere” – basically putting Moyer’s words into his own so that the whole thing doesn’t read like an interview transcript. It’s a literary device; you’re a write and you use them all the time.
But this is all just tangential. I’m not sticking up for Moore, or you, or anybody. I’m a fan of the baeball team, but I don’t pick sides in the ‘beat-writer wars’. My only point was that your cattiness is sometimes uncalled for.
So, if you want to come back and nail me again, fine. But I’m out of this; keep up the good work.
One comment I WOULD make in regards to your piece is that you still might need to work on your balance of “Cold and Calculated” and “Appeasing the Masses”.
Tui is a beloved local boy, and you came across as fairly harsh and dismissive of him.
I’m not sure if it is where you want to go with your baseball writing career, but good luck getting an interview with him in the future…
(even if that isn’t entirely accurate, hopefully you get my general point).
Ie., Re-Read your own column as a slack-jawed yokel trying to understand WHY the draft is important.
My only point was that your cattiness is sometimes uncalled for.
Cattiness.
What can I even say here?
On another note:
Tui is a beloved local boy, and you came across as fairly harsh and dismissive of him.
Yeah. And if he starts to hit and proves he can field a position, I’ll laud him with the rest. I haven’t seen that yet, and I’m continually baffled why there seems to be a belief in him even at places like Baseball America that far exceed his performance last year, without so much as a disclaimer.
I’m not saying you are wrong in being dismissive of him, I’m saying that IF you want to write to a crowd larger than the USSMariner audience, you need to do some balancing of “nice guy” and “fact guy”.
Momma baseball fan isn’t writing to the PI and asking for you to get a paid job there right now…
If that isn’t your intent or desire, then feel free to ignore my comments, but it is something to think about in your writing perhaps.
No, no, I totally agreed with you, I did come off harsh and dismissive, and I should have taken the time to be much clearer about why I think it looks bad for him now, and why others agree. I think I’ve done a much better job of that in previous articles in trying to think through objections from both sides as I edit, and I didn’t do that here.
I am confused at the tone in here.
To me it is not “pretty obvious…that he’s parroting Moyer…” at all. If he is… that is a pretty damning inditement of his reporting skills. That you already accept that he is just a mouthpiece.
He makes a postive statement. A statement of fact. If he wants it taken any other way he must use a qualifier. It’s a very easy and mandatory thing to do if you are showing something you claim to be someone else’s point of view rather than fact.
I don’t think that could be more clear.
DMZ… loved the article as always. Thanks, it seems, go to Dave as well.
In regards to Tui, my opinion is that its too early to judge either way whether it was a good move or bad move, whether he has a good bat or not.
His performance at Peoria was outstanding, his performance at Everett was suspect. Both are relatively small sample sizes to really pass judgement on which is more indicative of his abilities at the plate. When you look at the combined numbers of the two it was a pretty impressive offensive debut for him at the professional level. When you look at either one independently then you can see the vast difference in performance.
A first pro season line of .314/.420/.521/.941 would be considered a pretty impressive showing for any high school player and if he had done all of that at Peoria or Everett and the offensive reports would be glowing. I just think that because he split the season between the two and you can visually see the independent changes in his batting statistics it can lead you to think either way about him.
Isn’t Tyler Greene from Georgia Tech, not USC?
And I disagree with the suggestion that you should soft-pedal your take on Tui, as well.
In baseball, much like politics, people that don’t keep informed as much as others are often ruled by a monster called “conventional wisdom”… which is so wrong, so often, that it is almost an oxymoron.
Here in Seattle we have two great examples in Dan Wilson and WIllie B.
Making your opinion on those guys or Tui one degree away from conventional wisdom will do nothing to change it.
Making your opinion ninety degrees, or one-eighty, CAN. In order to make people think about it at all you have to illustrate the scope of the misconception.
If they read, for example, someone being mildly critical of Bloomquist, they will ignore it as a mere difference of opinion.
If they read something written like a wake-up call… sometimes it will cause them to rethink.
Now the danger is how you do that. If you alienate them, that will achieve nothing, as well.
But I don’t think you really did that here. If you do, and want to rethink the humor approach next time, that’s fine.
But I don’t think it happened. I think it was funny and made me jar my own perceptions a little bit and question them.
Moore takes valuable space from Locke’s Sonics’ columns (which are substantiated by research). After reading the article, it is clear that he does not even attempt to offer any possible rebuttal to Moyer’s take on Questec. Plus, he seems to have little indication as to why Moyer stuggled so mightily last year, especially at Safeco. I would hope that columnists would be intelligent enough to offer arguments substantiated by evidence and research. Moore does not do this in his recent article, and it is not mean spirited or spiteful to point this out.
I’m curious about your opinion of Maybin. I know Dave has told me he will probably be watching Maybin play sometime in the coming weeks, but given the comments in the PI article, what would you say makes him a riskier prospect than, say, Upton? The reports I’ve read is that he’s got monster power and good speed, with very little holes in his swing, and somewhat of an issue with plate discipline.
Moore’s space is meant to be different. He never wavers from biases, never relents on the pain (ripping folks over and over), never says he writes anything but entertainment. That’s the context of his column, which you can take or leave.
DMZ,
“Starts” to hit? Just because he didn’t dominate the Northwest League doesn’t mean he didn’t hit. Maybe BA keeps touting him because scouts and league managers keep telling them how good he looks. He was rated #1 in the AZL by them and #5 in the NW League. I’m baffled as to why you are baffled.
There were 11 high school hitters drafted in the 1st, supplemental or 2nd round of the 2004 draft. Only three of them made it above Rookie ball, and one of them was Tui. To be fair, those two, Billy Butler and Reid Brignac, both outhit Tui (though neither did at their first stop). Of the five guys that made it to Rookie ball, he outhit two. 4/11 never even made it to Rookie ball, and he of course outhit all of them in the GCL/AZL. So, yeah, I guess he’s a total failure unless you count outhitting 6 of the 11 guys taken before the Tui’s draft round even started (or 9/11, depending on your stance on the difficulty of Rookie leagues vs. short-season leagues).
No offense, but I think in your rush to support your claim that the M’s draft philosophy was a bad one, you threw the baby out with the bathwater. I think it would have been a strong enough point to say that the strategy might have produced one good outcome, but it’s too early to tell for sure. I can agree that the Mattox drafts were terrible without dismissing every player he drafted.
’m baffled as to why you are baffled.
I don’t understand how anyone can look at Matt, look at his stat line, and then pronounce him, say, the #5 prospect in the NWL. He was terrible. Even if you want to argue that he’s a future star and just struggled, how come no one mentions that he was a defensive butcher at Everett and the bat that’s supposed to play at any position didn’t show up for duty? Shouldn’t there at least be a warning label?
“Contents under pressure”?
Well I’m not going to try and change anyone’s opinion of Tui in this thread, but how can you really say he was a butcher defensively in the NWL when he played a total of 5 games in the field defensively? Most of his time at Everett was spent as being a DH because Asdrubal Cabrera and Oswaldo Navarro were already there and playing shortstop.
Who knows why his bat didn’t show up, maybe it was just a 100 at bat slump, maybe he’s not that good, maybe he tried to do too much, maybe he wasn’t ready for the jump to that level… who knows, but like I said earlier, I don’t think you can really make a correct assumption on his abilities either way based on the small sample sizes, and the fact that he split time between Peoria (where he was way above average offensively) and Everett (where he was below average offensively).
DMZ,
I have to agree with some of the others about Tui being a pretty good player. I understand why you don’t like him, as he is a raw toolsy player, and you guys here definitely seem to lean more towards the stats side of the great debate. However, Tui destroyed the pitching in the rookie league and didn’t totally embarass himself in the Everett.
Basically, you have to take into account his age and the situation in which he was drafted. The M’s didn’t have a first or second pick, so they were in a position to overpay to get a good player in the 3rd round. Tui was viewed by most scouts as one of the better high-school players, but slid in the draft because of the likelihood that he would play football at UW. Thus, the M’s got a guy with the 3rd round pick that would have gone a lot higher if not for signability. Since the M’s didn’t have picks in the first two rounds, it makes the huge bonus make a little more sense, and I think that he was a good selection.
Regarding his performance, just like most high-school SSs, he will likely move to another position. His bat will get him by at other positions, and with his athleticism and arm, he could be a very good OFer or at 3B.
Thus, his defensive limitations at SS are basically irrelevant, because nobody (except for him, maybe) actually see him sticking at SS. His bat is better than you give him credit for, and I think that it is hasty to write him off as a bad pick until he at least has a full year of pro ball under his belt. But when you take into account that the M’s got a 1st round talent in the third round, you have to conclude that this was a decent pick.
I agree with you that the M’s other drafts have been horrible in the past few years. Garciaparra, Jones, and Mayberry, combined with their eagerness to give picks to other teams after signing mediocre veterans for too much money, is really a problem. However, I think that the Tuiasosopo signing was a step in the right direction. Hopefully, they will make some good decisions in this draft. Since the M’s will be able to pick from Upton, Gordon, Maybin, and Pelfrey, the only way that they will not get a very good player is if they make a conscious decision to mess this up. Hopefully, they draft the best talent and not for need, and stay away from Clement.
DMZ,
Again, it is not like he was a total mess in Everett. Considering that he was in his first season of pro ball, I think that he did pretty well. Other highschool first rounders, like Chris Nelson, Billy Butler, and Greg Golson didn’t hit as well in rookie league as Tui, and weren’t promoted to A-ball. The fact that the M’s thought enough of him to send him to Everett is a good sign, and the fact that he kept his head above water is not to shabby either. If you look back at some of the other recent highschool hitters, like Ian Stewart and Daric Barton, didn’t hit as well in rookie league, and didn’t get promoted. Tui was facing college pitchers in his first season, and still managed to hit .250. Not awesome, but I still don’t think that this means that he is a nonprospect. If he was a college hitter and played like that, yeah, it would be a little bit questionable. If the M’s had drafted him with the 15th pick, it also would be a bad move. However, getting this guy in the 3rd round – even though they paid first round cash for him – is a pretty smart move.
I enjoyed the write up just like I’ve enjoyed every Thursday addition so far. Its obvious that our farm system has started to thin out. I don’t completely agree with writing off Jones and Tui yet. Its still too early to do much more than cringe at some of their numbers.
As for being too criticle of a local boy you only wrote one paragraph on him and it was pretty accurate about his performance there. He’d probably agree with you.
#31 — Agree with what re Tui? I want to make it clear that I wouldn’t have disagreed with DMZ expressing caution or even concern about Tui’s future. But the comment about the 2004 draft seems to speak only to his defensive ability at SS, to which the response shoudl be “So what?” Hey, Daric Barton isn’t going to stick at catcher, either, but nobody is calling him a “lost” draft pick. Billy Butler isn’t going to stick at 3B, and nobody is crying in KC. Heck, Blake DeWitt of the Dodgers didn’t even last at SS through his first 20 games, and nobody is calling that a lost first round pick. My whole point was (a) Tui acquitted himself well with the bat in his first pro season, given that he was a HS hitter taken in the 3rd round, and (b) his performance wasn’t enough to call 2004 a “lost” draft year, as Derek did.
Now, Derek, I apologize if I’m wrong about the meaning of your comment about those years being “lost.” If you meant to suggest that 2004 was a “lost” draft not because Tui looks to be a bust, but more because they lost the opportunity to take a 1st-rounder with the signings of Ibanez and Eddie, then I wouldn’t have argued with that.
Oh, speaking of the draft, it looks like the Angels have broken off negotiations with Jared Weaver.
http://www.ocregister.com/ocr/2005/03/03/sections/sports/sports/article_428207.php
Since the M’s need some pitching help soon, I have to wonder if they might consider drafting him next year. Assuming that the Angels and Boras don’t revive the negotiations, he could be an attractive option for the M’s. From that article, it seems like there is a lot of animosity between Boras and Stoneman, so he very likely will be available in the 2005 draft.
The only other college pitchers that are really good enough to go in the top 5 are Pelfrey and Hochevar. Unless one of these guys just dominates, I would think that Weaver would be the best pitcher in the draft, even with a year off. He is pretty polished, and could reach the big leagues quickly.
I hope that the M’s focus on position players with a pick that early. Who knows, maybe the D-Backs will spend all their cash on Stephen Drew, the Royals will go for a signability pick, and Upton will drop to the M’s. Maybin and Gordon would also be awesome, with Maybin probably being the better fit for the M’s. However, Weaver was insanely good for Long Beach last year, and would give the M’s another great pitching prospect. All in all, I think that Gordon/Upton/Maybin would be a safer bet just because of the injury factor for pitchers. But this at least makes the draft predictions a little more interesting.
What do you guys think about this? I know that it is early, but if I was Fontaine, I think that my draft board would look like this:
1. Upton
2. Maybin
3. Gordon
4. Weaver
5. Pelfrey
6. Hochevar
However, Gordon’s position is definitely a problem. I don’t know much about him besides the fact that he is a decent defensive player at 3B with a great lefty bat. If he could possibly play LF, it might make sense for the M’s. He sounds like a very polished player, and could really work his way through the minors quickly. Thus, it would be a shame to draft a guy who is so totally blocked unless he could be moved to the OF. In LF, he is not as valuable a player, and Weaver and Pelfrey possibly become more viable options.
Incidentally, DMZ and/or Dave, has anybody tried to figure out the value of signing your first round picks vs. letting them go back in the draft? Every year, you sure see a lot of the same names projected to be high draft picks. It sure seems like giving Mayberry (for example) a little extra money three years ago would have been a pretty smart move. For a team with money like M’s, it would seem to make sense to get every high draft pick signed, even if it costs you a little extra.
Jon Helfgott,
There is a real good article at Baseball America that talks about Upton and Maybin a lot, and why Upton is seen as the safer bet:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/2005draft/050131overview.html
The crux of the dicussion is that Upton has been under the microscope for a long time, and that scouts have had a chance to see him play more than a typical highschool standout. This is because of the attention his brother got, but he has been seen as a great talent since he was a kid (literally, as in age 12) and he has also played in some high-profile tournaments with wood bats. Thus, scouts are really familiar with him, and he has done nothing to lower his stock.
He really is a special player. He has insane speed and all the other tools, and scouts are thinking that if he can’t stick at SS he could still be a gold-glove caliber CFer.
Maybin is less well known, but will get a lot more attention this year. He is bigger, and has a lot more power potential. Most of the things that I have read suggest that he could have the highest ceiling of any player in the draft, but that he is more of a risk. He is a switch hitter with huge power potential, plus speed, and a RF arm. People have compared him to Junior.
It will be interesting to see what Maybin does this year. If he continues to improve his stock, and Upton is just merely very very good, he could make the draft more interesting. If he show a bit more polish, he could be a real good pick for the M’s.
I love Jim Moore. He has integrity (look it up). I can hardly wait to see his response to this attack.
Re (# 25)”good luck getting an interview with him {Tui] in the future.”
[# 28, cont.]Reminds me of a segment on a radio talk show (an interview with Woody Woodward) some years ago. After the “interview,” a caller wanted to know why the host didn’t ask the tough question. The host responded that he’d probably never get another interview if he did so. So there you have it.
Well, I’d rather have one dose of substance than a steady supply of pap.
Re: (# 13) “above rookie ball:” Aren’t Peoria and Everett essentially the same level?
“That’s about an even 5 ERA for his time in those parks.
Which– whoops, it’s lower than his season total.”
Actually, it winds up being a 5.46 ERA, 0.25 points higher than Moyer’s actual ERA.