2005 Draft Board

Dave · March 17, 2005 at 8:47 am · Filed Under Mariners 

The May 12th update of the 2005 Draft Board is below. The top two remain unchaged, Maybin and Hochevar swap spots, and Tyler Greene drops from the fifth spot in favor of Stephen Drew, who looks like he’ll be back in the draft after asking for more than Arizona is willing to pay.

The dropoff from Upton to Maybin is a pretty severe one, so the M’s have to be hoping that either Gordon or Upton fall to them at the third pick. After those two, there is little difference between the next 10 players on the board, so you could see a lot of different possibilities at the third pick.

1. Alex Gordon, 3B, University of Nebraska

.402/.554/.747, 174 At-Bats, 31 extra base hits, 49 walks, 26 strikeouts, 19 steals in 22 attemps

Comment: Gordon’s having a solid senior season and is still the top college player on the board. He’s become frustrated by the lack of strikes he’s seen, but he’s been able to stay within himself for the most part. The swing is fine and the approach is there. He’s a pure power hitter and should have few problems adjusting to wood bats. Most of the clubs I have spoken with have him at the top of their draft boards. At this point, he’s the likely choice to go #1 overall.

2. Justin Upton, SS/CF, Great Bridge HS (Virginia)

.550/.617/1.650, 40 at-bats, 19 extra base hits, 7 walks, 2 strikeouts, 7 stolen bases

Comment: First off, everyone should realize that high school statistics are completely worthless. There is absolutely no predictive value in Upton’s statline, and it shouldn’t affect your opinion of him one way or another. Okay, now that we have that disclaimer out of the way, he’s having a ridiculous year. He has more extra base hits than outs. He’s hitting .550 and only has 3 singles. Three!. The bat has never really been a question with Upton. He’s a hitter through and through, and like his brother, his offensive performances will likely allow him to move through the system quickly. His defense has continued to be a problem, however, with the general consensus now agreeing that he will likely be drafted as a centerfielder. It is looking like a longshot that he will stay at shortstop as a professional.

3. Cameron Maybin, OF, TC Roberson HS (North Carolina)

.655/.750/.896, 58 AB, 22 extra base hits, 22 walks, 4 strikeouts, 24 stolen bases

Comment: Maybin got pitched around for most of his senior year-note the ridiculous walk rate-and impressed scouts with his willingness to take what he was given. For a player considered raw who would need significant development, he did a terrific job of playing within himself and showing a polished approach at the plate. His physical skills still rank near the top of the charts, and for pure potential, he’s as good as any player in this draft.

4. Luke Hochevar, RHP, University of Tennessee

13 starts, 97 innings, 64 hits, 32 walks, 107 strikeouts, 3 home runs allowed, 1.77 ERA

Comment: Hochevar’s command has come and gone at points this year, but his stuff has held up all season and everyone still raves about his makeup. His control issues have been a bit of a disappointment considering his stuff is simply above average rather than dynamite, but he’s been able to succeed without having his full arsenal in every start. He’s viewed as a safe selection who should reach the majors relatively quickly but doesn’t offer the same potential as a few other arms in the draft. He’s still ranked as the best overall pitcher in the draft, however his affiliation with Scott Boras may cause him to fall.

5. Stephen Drew, SS, Camden Rivercats (Atlantic League)

.400/.444/.680, 25 at-bats, 5 extra base hits, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts, 1 stolen base in 1 attempt

Comment: It is beginning to look extremely unlikely that Arizona will be able to sign Drew before May 30th, the cutoff date to sign players from the 2004 draft. Drew has signed with the independant Camden Rivercats to get some playing time and shake off any rust before he re-enters the 2005 draft. He was the best player in last year’s draft, and on talent, he’s comparable to everyone in this draft after Gordon and Upton. However, the year layoff didn’t help his development, and the money being asked for by Scott Boras is going to be a detractror for most clubs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Drew fall to the second or third round this year, and his story will be one of the most interesting of the day.

Others To Watch:

Jered Weaver, RHP, Unsigned
Jeff Clement, C, USC
Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Wichita State
Andrew McCutcheon, OF, HS (Florida)
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Virginia
Justin Bristow, 3B, HS (Virginia)
Wade Townsand, RHP, Rice
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Long Beat State
Ryan Braun, 3B, Miami


62 Responses to “2005 Draft Board”

  1. Brock on May 12th, 2005 4:28 pm

    I am from Corvallis, Or., and am thus very interested in the Oregon State University Baseball program. Seeing as how they are ranked number three in the nation (by baseball america), they must have some talent on their team, so do you see any Beavers making potential splashes in the mlb someday?

  2. Colm on May 12th, 2005 11:49 pm

    44. John. You are JC aren’t you? Mangled meanings, no punctuation and no capitals.

    I haven’t a clue what you are trying to say mate. Which is a pity, because it might be an interesting contrary opinion.

  3. Benjamin Ramm on May 13th, 2005 2:18 am

    Seeing as how high school stats are worthless, could you say a bit more about what kind of hitter some of the prospects might be? Power, average, discipline…

    Why does Upton move from SS to CF, rather than to 2B where many failed SS prospects go? Obviously, there are many ways to fail at SS and I’m guessing that Upton must not have the quick reactions to play infield, but is fast enough to run balls down in CF and the arm to get them back to the infield.

  4. Troy on May 13th, 2005 10:07 am

    53, I’m not Dave (nor an expert of any degree), but from reading the scouting reports on Upton I get the feeling he is projected as a CF rather than a 2B because of his outstanding athleticism and speed. My impression is he struggles with the technical aspects of SS – the fundamentals of fielding grounders and making accurate throws – but he is plenty athletic enough to hold down the position if he ever found consistency there (which is a big if). Second base would seem to be a waste of that athleticism. Just my guess.

  5. Chance on May 13th, 2005 10:36 pm

    It’s the Camden Riversharks S. Drew plays for. They’re kind of like a local team here.

  6. Matt K. on May 24th, 2005 12:06 pm

    Hi Peter Gammons is reporting that the Mariners will take Troy Tulowitzki. I know Peter Gammons often has his head up his you know what, but what do you think the chances are of them choosing a shortstop when they already have so many of them in the minors?

    Where will they put Matt Tuiasasopo, Andrew Jones, Michael Morse.. I think I am missing a couple, but do you think this would cause them to maybe move players to different positions?

  7. Steve Thornton on May 25th, 2005 5:12 pm

    I saw that Gammons bit. The problem with our many “shortstops” is that they can’t play the position. Tuiasosopo is an outfielder at best, Morse is a 1B or DH. Adam Jones is a long ways off and may not be anything. The most intriguing character of them all is Betancourt, but there are many unanswered questions there. There is I would say a 50-50 chance that NONE of these guys ever becomes a regular MLB player. So a SS, being usually the best player on the field at these low levels, is a possibility and might be smart.

    But remember, Gammons is always, always, always wrong.

  8. JasonAChurchill on May 28th, 2005 12:34 am

    Re: 56

    Many players are drafted as shortstops and moved elsewhere in the field after they play their way off the position or their bat doesn’t play there – or a better option comes along.

    Tuiasosopo is just plain NOT going to be a shortstop long term. The outfield is probably where he fits best.

    Adam Jones has the tools to stick at SS, but sometime soon, he needs to start showing that he can play there long term. He is just 19 until August, but he’s a little stiff and makes too many mistakes at this point.

    Morse is, well, playing a solid shortstop in Triple-A, and is certainly handling the position better than I thought he would, but he lacks range to be a BTA shortstop.

    Asdrubal Cabrera, IMO, always looked like the perfect second baseman and his bat probably plays better there, anyways.

  9. The Ancient Mariner on May 29th, 2005 10:37 pm

    Ummm . . . if your bat doesn’t play at SS, it’s time to think about taking up pitching. I’ve never heard of the idea of someone’s bat playing better at a less-difficult position (whether 2B or wherever).

  10. Marcos Romero on May 30th, 2005 8:46 am

    Do not sleep on Cameron Maybin he’s one of the most prospective all stars in the whole draft. This man is an all around player that has shown his skills and perfomed and many different levels. High School Summer League or just the CONNIE MACK WORLD SERIES (MVP) he knows when to step up. He’s also been extremely constant through 4 years and hasn’t let anyone down. For the Doubters out there C.Maybin is the TRUTH.

  11. The Ancient Mariner on May 31st, 2005 11:43 pm

    In all honesty, as impressive as Maybin is–if Gordon and Upton go 1-2, there would be a strong argument for Seattle taking him–“High School Summer League [and] . . . the CONNIE MACK WORLD SERIES” don’t qualify as “many different levels.” There’s a lot to be said for him, and he could be a great player, but he’s far from a sure thing.

  12. Peter on June 2nd, 2005 11:27 pm

    Another member of the “TRUTH” fan club. I’m much more sold on the great impact player potential of Maybin (a switch hitting Vlad Guerrero?) even with the risk than a guy like Tulo who at best looks like he will pan out as a Bobby Crosby with a little more power.