More Beltre depressingness
Nate Silver, at Baseball Prospectus (subscription article), looks at players who are blowing away or hugely underperforming their PECOTA projections. Beltre’s one:
Beltre’s revised EqA estimate is at .263, which is almost exactly at the baseline he’d established between 2001 and 2003, when his growth appeared to have stagnated. I see absolutely no reason to take anything other than the Occam’s Razor explanation: Beltre’s 2004 was one of the biggest one-year flukes in baseball history.
Super-reader Paul Covert notes in the Week 9 review comments that
Hardball TimesÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ Batting Stats show Beltre with an above-average Line Drive Percentage of .207, which suggests that heÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s been hitting better than his numbers show thus far. Unfortunately, ReedÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s LD% of .118 is much less encouraging.
I still want to believe there’s hope. But having spent some quality time looking for signs of hope while writing the PI bit, I haven’t been able to take the leap. His performance so far’s been so abjectly bad it’s like I’m entirely turned around from my previous burning optimism about the signing. When you’re hoping he’ll come around to have a season that’s merely bad, that’s tough.