More Beltre depressingness
Nate Silver, at Baseball Prospectus (subscription article), looks at players who are blowing away or hugely underperforming their PECOTA projections. Beltre’s one:
Beltre’s revised EqA estimate is at .263, which is almost exactly at the baseline he’d established between 2001 and 2003, when his growth appeared to have stagnated. I see absolutely no reason to take anything other than the Occam’s Razor explanation: Beltre’s 2004 was one of the biggest one-year flukes in baseball history.
Owwwwwwwwwwwwwww.
Super-reader Paul Covert notes in the Week 9 review comments that
Hardball Times’ Batting Stats show Beltre with an above-average Line Drive Percentage of .207, which suggests that he’s been hitting better than his numbers show thus far. Unfortunately, Reed’s LD% of .118 is much less encouraging.
I still want to believe there’s hope. But having spent some quality time looking for signs of hope while writing the PI bit, I haven’t been able to take the leap. His performance so far’s been so abjectly bad it’s like I’m entirely turned around from my previous burning optimism about the signing. When you’re hoping he’ll come around to have a season that’s merely bad, that’s tough.
Comments
42 Responses to “More Beltre depressingness”
Nate revised .EQA after 180 AB? I thought 180 AB was too small of a sample.
So, I maybe be completely off base on this, so please feel free to gently correct me…
I recall hearing that Beltre had been prone to the low-and-away pitch early in his career.
I recall hearing that 2004 Beltre had a foot injury (Bone spurs?) which prevented him from going after the low-and-away.
I recall hearing that much of 2004 Beltre’s explosion came from better plate discipline, including laying off the low-and-away.
I recall hearing that Beltre had the foot injury fixed in the offseason.
It appears to me that 2005 Beltre is prone to the low-and-away.
I know all about correlation and causation (ie, one does not imply the other), but this seems like a pretty significant conicidence.
Add in the “pressure to prove he was worth the big contract”, and this amateur psychologist is ready to go bash his foot with a golf club. Oops, sorry, Mr. Beltre, now LAY OFF THE LOW-AND-AWAY!
Thoughts?
Unwarranted pessimism. We have this guy for the next 5 years. What good is it to be so depressed right now after 2 months? I’m no pollyanna, but I still like the signing. Even if Beltre regresses over the entire course of this season. He still has much, much better seasons ahead. I’m not worried. 95% of the time I agree with you Derek, but not this time.
Beltre clearly has an exploitable flaw in his approach right now. He also clearly has monstrous abilities when that flaw is closed. Basically, it’s a question of whether or not Beltre can force himself to stop chasing the breaking ball in the bottom outer half of the zone.
Maybe I’m stubborn, but I think Nate’s wrong to write off years of proven talent due to a two month stretch of poor performance. He’s not writing off Eric Chavez, and I’d argue they are comparable talents.
Also, as regards to his contract that everyones sniping at now, knowing exactly what I know today, I’d still sign him to the deal.
Beltre got through a slump in LA by moving down in the order. I think this is worth a shot. A lineup that goes
ichiro
reed
sexson
ibanez
beltre
boone
etc.
When predicted EQA is revised after 180 AB what does that imply about the utility of the previous 4 seasons of data?
I’m skeptical that Line Drive percentage is useful. It probably has a high correlation with AVG. It doesn’t account for length of line drives. (The longer ones are called Home Runs.) Home runs tell you more. It measures LD/Hits. So the denominator isn’t relevant?
20.7% is 3rd on the team. Sexson, in contrast, has an LD% of 13.7%.
Line Drive Percentage. Baseball Info Solutions tracks the trajectory of each batted ball and categorizes it as a groundball, fly ball or line drive. LD% is the percent of batted balls that are line drives. Line drives are not necessarily the hardest hit balls, but they do fall for a hit around 75% of the time
It does not measure LD/Hits. I have no idea where you got that from.
#5, I was with you until you got the #6 spot and beyond. Not that Beltre wouldn’t fare better down the line but seeing Boone, etc for 4 of 9 hitters in our line up is downright depressing.
Unwarranted pessimism. We have this guy for the next 5 years. What good is it to be so depressed right now after 2 months? I’m no pollyanna, but I still like the signing. Even if Beltre regresses over the entire course of this season. He still has much, much better seasons ahead. I’m not worried. 95% of the time I agree with you Derek, but not this time.
Ah, but here’s the thing — I thought I was being pretty clear that I’m acknowledging that my reaction’s to realizing how bad he’s been is probably too extreme, and that there’s a lot of emotion and shock here. I’m not advancing an argument that he’s done. I’m saying that it’s hard for me to look at this start and not think that.
I totally agree with Dave: if he stops swinging for that low-and-outside pitch he can’t hit, it’s on. Whether he can or will do that again is ultimately up to him.
The real question here is what will this mean when we want another good free agent? If Beltre continues to slump, would it make management more reluctant to sign anyone else?
If he were on the wrong side of 30, I’d be crying … he’s only 26 years old.
At the risk of oversimplifying matters with Beltre, can’t they set up a batting cage for him with a pitching machine and set the machine so that it only throws him low and away pitches? Maybe seeing enough of those pitches in the cage with a pitching machine would cure him of the low and away blues. Of course there’s always the option of shock therapy, but I digress.
It’s interesting though that Beltre’s Achilles heel seems to be the same one as I recall Jay Buhner having (low and away pitches). Buhner was never as widely criticized for it (I think), however, because he always supplied more-than-adequate power and he wasn’t expected to be more than a 5 or 6 hole hitter anyhow. I am personally just as disturbed by Beltre’s apparent lack of power at this point as I am by the low and away issue. I am still hopeful that I can look back on this thread in 2 or 3 months and laugh about it, however.
I’ve said this on threads here more than once: look at his monthly splits: May has always been his worst month, by far. I’m not even going to speculate why (does he like warm weather? Does he have to re-learn plate discipline every year? Does he perform best in months with “u” in them? — Ok, I said I wouldn’t speculate) but there it is. I’d revisit this question in late August.
Beltre is still a good 3rd baseman. Considering what a black hole that position has been for most of the history of the Mariners, that in itself is an accomplishment. In fact, if it wasn’t for the size of his contract and the dearth of production by anyone else on the team, this wouldn’t even be an issue. I hope they’re working with him on his pitch recognition with those low/away/breaking balls and whatever else, but there’s still plenty of time to right the ship.
If Beltre continues to slump, would it make management more reluctant to sign anyone else?
And would any big free agent bats want to come to Seattle, especially from the NL? Sure, it’s not exactly true, but a bad rep is a bad rep, especially for a group as superstitious as baseball players. Crillo, Aurilla, now Beltre (and maybe even Sexson)….the Mariners, where NL hitters go to kill their careers.
#14 – At least Sexson is hitting for power and driving in runs, though. FWIW, he’s on a pace for 42 HR, 130 RBI, with an .876 OPS. Granted, he’s also on a pace for 180 K’s, but I’d take those stats personally. I’d say Sexson is doing about what we’d expect and is basically earning his paycheck.
Dodger fan here. Westfried (comment #2) basically has it right. There is no way to prove that Beltre couldn’t swing at pitches low and away because of his ankle, but that is the only time in his career when he hasn’t.
Right now he is the Adrian Beltre from 2001-2003. It wouldn’t be right to call 2004 a fluke year at this point, but it certainly is a posibilty.
I agree that it is too early to ring the alarm bells. There are a lot of guys who go through bad stretches. This is clearly one of them.
What is depressing is that the Ms are just such a bad team to watch right now. But then we knew going into the season that we weren’t going to contend, and that this season was prelude to the future.
The only way I can watch them right now is to stay focused on ’06, ’07, and ’08. Beltre, Reed, and Felix will certainly be big parts of those seasons. Sexson, Piniero, Madritsch, Doyle, Lopez, are guys who are likely to be very important. I even hold out hope that Olivo and Bucky can be important as well.
Let’s keep our heads and – more importantly – encourage the Ms management to keep their heads as well. Getting Doyle, Choo, and Lopez up so they can platoon every other day is, IMHO, a vital move.
The Ms MUST know what they have going into this off season. For example, our guys have to make a decision about Boone and Lopez. If we know Lopez can play everyday at 2B, then we know we can offer Boone a take-it-or-leave-it contract at the level of a beloved backup 2B. If Lopez still needs work but can eventually be an everyday player, then maybe you offer Boone a slightly better contract with better incentives. If you give Lopez an honest shot by calling him up after the Break so he gets 150 or so AB, and it is clear that he might only be a good bench middle infielder guy, then we know that we need to go hunting for a real 2B as well as a SS.
(BTW, IMHO the big free agents pitchers in the off season are A.J. Burnett and Oliver Perez. What do you guys think?)
Patience is a virtue. Beltre will get acquainted with AL pitching and he will begin to heat up. Patience…
I don’t buy that. Beltre faced a significant portion of NL pitching, and in particular relievers, with exactly the same amount of experience he has this year against AL pitching.
Further, why is there an adjustment for him and not Sexson, who not only was in the NL but didn’t face much of anything last year? Wouldn’t Sexson logically be facing much greater difficulties?
re: #4
Even with the benefit of hindsight, I’d still sign him today as well. I’m just not worried about him, at least not yet- the Mariners still have too many other problems to solve. If we still haven’t seen something resembling the player we thought we were getting when the 2006 All-Star break rolls around, I’ll start to move my finger towards the panic button. But until then, given that we’re watching a team with more holes than a cracked colander (or so it seems), I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.
And so far, the only difficulty Sexson has is hitting things that aren’t homeruns.
I think Dave said it best. Beltre has an exploitable flaw in his approach at the plate. We need it fixed.
Sexson was out most all of last year. He’s taking the pitchers he faces as he sees them, not on recent experience. That could account for his hitting.
Beltre faced NL pitchers last year and so still has some of that mindset factoring in his swing.
The M’s problems in the last couple of years has been the batting coach. Last year Molitor was learning on the job, so the batters were left to their own devices. This year…I don’t know. Where are you, Jesse B., and how would you like to come back to Seattle?
I’ve always wondered about that “adjusting to (new)L pitching” mantra. Is there anything to it in general? Did there used to be? I’ve always roundfiled it along with the “so-and-so has a career ### era against this team” — like anything besides the uniforms has been the same when he’s faced that team over the years.
I would suggest that most of us who were enthusiastic about the Beltre signing (beyond the fact that the M’s have historically not pursued big name free agents) was the possibility that Beltre was a ‘carry the team’ guy. In other words the guy who could hit for average and power. You know, Vlad Guerrero. To be blunt, given his huge underperformance to what we and the team expected, the offensive woes of this team lay heavily at his feet. There, that ought to add to the pressure he’s feeling. We can discuss the 8-9 black hole all we want, but when you expect your #3 hitter to be at about .310 and 35 RBIs right now, and he ain’t anywhere close, that is THE hole in the lineup. If his only problem is a “hole” in his swing, I figure he is young enough to solve that problem.
What does Beltre and Chan Ho Park have in common?
Hmmmmm.
Maybe a persuasive agent good at selling his bill of goods?
I would add if 2004 was AB’s Brady Anderson’s 1996 just shoot all of us right now…
On Beltre as the #3 hitter:
that is THE hole in the lineup
The lineup doesn’t stop at the third hitter. There are many hole options to chose from with the Mariners.
I’m still optimistic on Beltre. I’m just wondering what he’s missing. I tend to look for the simplistic answer (the foot). I think he’s got enough of a track record that it will eventually click, and we’ll all be happy. This year’s numbers may end up looking weak due to the rough start. But, as long he finishes strong, with a good outlook for next year and beyond (when it will really matter), I’ll be happy.
Sexson was out most all of last year. He’s taking the pitchers he faces as he sees them, not on recent experience. That could account for his hitting.
Beltre faced NL pitchers last year and so still has some of that mindset factoring in his swing.
This doesn’t make sense. NL pitchers don’t throw a different set of pitches now, if they ever did. With the integration of umpiring crew, the strike zone is uniform, and the fastball v slider thing was overblown even when there was some truth to it.
The M’s problems in the last couple of years has been the batting coach. Last year Molitor was learning on the job, so the batters were left to their own devices. This year…I don’t know. Where are you, Jesse B., and how would you like to come back to Seattle?
That’s not true, Molitor worked with a lot of the players as any hitting coach does. Say what you may about his effectiveness, but he didn’t leave players to their own devices.
We need Edgar to come in the clubhouse with his tennis ball machine and teach Beltre how to see the ball.
We should get Beltre some of those amber contact lenses that Brian Roberts is using.
We should get some for Ichiro, too. He’d hit .600 with those things.
#31 … either that or we’all ought to buy ourselves rose colored lenses.
Re: 30
i think thats the best idea i’ve heard yet…in fact, have Olivo start doing the same thing….
there’s no way that Beltre had a fluke year in the sense that he dosn’t have the talent to perform the kind of feats he did, and just was aided by a huge load of good luck; to prove my point, just look at the list of compararable seasons in ML history (40 hrs, 200 hits, 300 ba, 120 rbi, etc). Every one on that list is a hall-of-famer, save guys like Albert Belle who had near hall of fame talent but had there careers cut short. Also, from everything i’ve heard, he’s a hard worker, and a gamer; him playing on the balky hamstring should tell you something.
that being said, his tremendous talent may never translate onto the field like it did last year, and i’m not sure what i think is going to happen. i don’t want to think the worst, but at this point, it dosn’t matter. he’s in Seattle for the next 5 years, whatever the outcome, and even if he never hits better than a #5 guy during that time and we’re forced to get another #3 hitter, theres nothing we can do at this point…nothing but watch and hope that it turns out well in the long run, which is certainly not out of the picture. speculation dosn’t do much at this point except add to the anxiety of us fans, and to paraphrase Yogi , his contract aint over till its over…we’re only about 1/15 into it after 2 months, he could still end up hitting .290 this year and have a mirror of the first half; the talent is there, as Derek said, so the likelihood of things turning around is up to him.
I suspect that if it weren’t for our awful history at 3B, we wouldn’t be taking Beltre’s awful start quite so hard; if we hadn’t had Jeff Cirillo, we wouldn’t be having Cirillo flashbacks.
Just for grins . . . Beltre had just short of 600 AB last year; he has 180 so far this year, 30% of that total. Here’s how his line would look if, for the next 420 AB, he hit just like he did last season:
600 AB, 183 H, 30 2B, 39 HR, 42 BB, 93 K, .305/.350/.550
I’m not saying we can expect that, but it’s not impossible; which would seem to suggest, at the very least, that it’s a little early to write this season off (even as strongly as ingrained Mariner pessimism pushes me to do so).
Couldn’t we just rebreak his ankle?
“I recall hearing that much of 2004 Beltre’s explosion came from better plate discipline, including laying off the low-and-away.”
His walk rate really wasn’t any better — taking into account IBBs — in 2004 than in the previous three years.
In fact, Beltre’s best walk rates came in 1999 and 2000…they’ve deteriorated since then…
Even if Beltre was a one year wonder, I think the signing was a good one. After the year he had and his talent, I think the price that the Mariners signed him for was a discount… Even if he doesn’t fulfill his potential, I think it was a good signing.
Funniest comment of the season: “What’s he missing?” Bwaaahaaaahaaaahahahaha! the juice, of course! who not admit it?
That lady sitting behind the heckler looks like she needs a few more drinks.
Oops sorry thought I was on the game thread. (how embarrassing)
I think getting acquainted with AL pitching has less to do with pitch selection and strike zone management (as was stated above) than it does with sheer familiarity. Familiarity breeds comfort. The more acquainted Beltre gets with the pitchers he is facing, the more comfortable he will get at the plate. The more comfortable he gets at the plate…well, you know where I’m going with this.
Besides, unless you can show that Beltre hit NL relief pitchers (he wasn’t acquainted with) better than he’s hitting AL pitching right now, your point only supports the notion that familiarity is an important factor in successful plate appearances.
Having said that, I can’t explain why Sexson isn’t having the same trouble as Beltre. Though, I’m glad this is the case…GO BIG SEX!