June Future Forty
The Future Forty has been updated for the month of June. Mostly minimal changes this time around, with two additions (Rob Johnson and Sabastian Boucher) replacing two players who are underperforming and running out of time (Rich Dorman and Jon Nelson).
The biggest move up the charts belongs to Adam Jones, who moved from Project to Future Prospect and saw his reward rating bumped up from a 6 to a 7. He hasn’t gotten a ton of recognition, but Jones has been on fire the past month, raising his season batting line to .313/.388/.548. 28 of his 65 hits–43 percent!–have gone for extra bases. He’s still a free swinger (19 walks, 49 strikeouts) and has a lot of work to do on breaking balls, but the offensive surge Jones has seen is a very good sign for his future. I’ve been publicly critical of the Jones selection and postulated that he may end up on the mound at some point in his career, but he’s making those comments look quite foolish. Jones’ defense at short is still fairly poor, however, as he’s on pace to make nearly 50 errors on the year. However, the M’s continue to remain committed to him as a shortstop, and it’s not a bad idea to try to get as much value out of a young player as possible. With his offensive surge at age 19 in high-A ball, Jones has moved himself into legitimate prospect status, and now ranks fairly evenly in my eyes with Asdrubal Cabrera and Matt Tuiasasopo.
Also flying under the radar a bit, but having an encouraging start to 2005, is personal favorite Oswaldo Navarro. He’s hitting .274/.361/.371 in Wisconsin, which doesn’t sound like much, but is a huge improvement over his disastrous affair in full season ball last year (.211/.295/.248). Navarro is posting a 22/24 walk to strikeout ratio, showing improved contact ability and discipline at the plate, and despite his underwhelming power, has knocked 13 extra base hits. He’s always going to be a defense first player, but if his bat continues to develop, there is still an outside chance that he could turn into an Omar Vizquel type of player. It’s a longshot, and he’s going to remain in the project category until he shows some offensive potential at higher levels, but he’s one of the few players in the Project category who has the potential to become a regular major league player at some point.
Also, in case you hadn’t noticed, the M’s organizational pitching is a disaster, almost from the top down. It’s absolutely amazing how poorly the pitching staffs are, from the big league club all the way to Wisconsin. Trying to find a legitimate pitching prospect to get excited about in the low minors is nearly impossible.
The next update will come at the beginning of July, and hopefully, the third overall pick will have already signed and we’ll get to add another name to the line of legitimate prospects in the organization. Feel free to use this thread as a prospect/draft catch all, as pretty much anything minor league related fits in well here.
Comments
72 Responses to “June Future Forty”
Dave – Because the M’s minor-league pitching has taken a turn for the worse, do you think that the M’s will take a pitcher with their second pick in the draft, in the 4th round?
Is there any discussion around the M’s concerning Brett Jensen possibly in the fourth or fifth round (If he’s still there?)?
Rob Johnson’s currently 4th in the MWL in slugging, w/41% of his hits for extra bases. Where did he come from, and why don’t we hear too much about him? I guess there are questions about his defense, but 4th in the league is great even if he was a 1B – even as a so-so catcher, it’s noteworthy. Why do you think he doesn’t get much attention? Is he old for the league?
Conor,
I think they’ll focus on drafting pitching in the mid rounds, yes. But I don’t think we can say they’re going to draft a position one way or another in a certain round.
Johnson was the M’s 4th round pick last summer and was, to be nice, awful in his pro debut. He hit .231/.296/.317 between Peoria and Everett. He’s only 21, however, and doesn’t turn 22 until the end of next month. He was drafted more for his defensive skills, and most of the early reports on him were that offense would be a bonus. I’d like to see him keep this up, and hit at higher levels, before I get too excited.
Rob Johnson looks like he could handle a higher level now. Any chance he gets promoted soon to Inland Empire? Who has the better chance of being an everyday catcher, him or Rivera?
well, since you mentioned the draft…
what affect do you think the signing of Drew has on AZ signing a pitcher now instead of Upton? If Upton and Gordon are gone, do you think Seattle will go with Tulo? Maybe we can get a predraft review from you of Tulo?
This may be a bit of work but is it possible to change the links for the players to give their current stats (not last year)? I think current pages can be found on milb.com.
Also Dave, when is it time to worry about Tuiasasopo’s lack of power?
The Drew signing increases the chance that the D’backs will take a pitcher, certainly. The latest rumors also have KC taking a late shine to Maybin, so it’s becoming ever more likely that the M’s will have a shot at either Upton or Gordon, and not totally out of the realm of possibility that they could have their pick of the two.
And yes, Tom, I know BA’s stats pages don’t have updated stats. It’d be a pain to change them, and I know KG is working on getting BA’s stats pages back to where they were.
As for the lack of power, it’s way, way too early. If Tui still isn’t hitting for power in 2 years, then I’ll start to be concerned.
As for draft previews, I’m leaning more towards a draft review, honestly. I’ve got one of the busiest weekends of my life coming up, and I’m not sure I can justify putting together 1500 words on Troy Tulowitzki, only to watch him get picked by another club.
Have no worries, though. We’ll be all over the draft Tuesday and Wednesday.
Dave, Ryan Christianson — still written off, or catching and hitting well enough at Tacoma to have a future as at least an adequate MLB backup?
I completely agree about the pitching, even the guys that were showing promise last year seem to be struggling this year. There doesn’t seem to be a single pitcher that is posting a K rate of 1 per inning. However I was wondering what you think of Brandon Moorhead he seem to be one of the few that is putting up a decent K rate. Also I don’t know if you have been keeping an eye on Hunter Brown, but he has been tearing it up since his abysmal start hitting for average and power (although his overall numbers still aren’t great) has this effected your opinion of him?
Christianson has 31 hits so far this year. 25 of them are singles. Whether or not you choose to believe that he never used steroids, despite failing a test for performance enhancing drugs, his past power has clearly not made the trip to Tacoma. So, you’ve got an injury prone slap hitter with mediocre plate discipline and poor defensive skills. I can’t say I’m that excited about his future. I’m guessing, if everything breaks right, he might have Chris Widger’s career.
Seriously, we should be paying for this info.
Wladimir Balentien — is his plate discipline fixable? If so, he could be an enormously productive corner outfielder.
Wladimir Balentien  is his plate discipline fixable?
I don’t think so. The same force that causes the power is the one that causes the ridiculous strikeout numbers, so if any real effort was made to bring his approach at the plate into a more reasonable line, you’d probably see it effect his power, which would then make him essentially useless.
One of the main causes of statheads over the years have been to get people to realize that strikeouts aren’t necessarily a bad thing for a hitter. However, my research has led me to believe that is true at the major league level, but ridiculously high strikeout rates at the minor league level are almost always an indicator of a serious, incorrectable flaw. There’s a threshold of acceptable strikeouts, and Balentien is right on that line. He’s striking out 31 percent of the time this year, and very few successful major league power hitters swung and missed that often in the minor leagues.
A lot of guys you’d think would have been huge strikeout guys in the minors actually aren’t. Jim Thome only struck out in 21 percent of his minor league at bats. Jason Giambi was at 15 percent. David Ortiz was at 25 percent. The list of guys who made contact as rarely as Balentien does, and succeeded, is very, very short.
Dave,
Thanks for the update, the future 40 is one of my favorite parts of this site.
I have a question on B.J. Garbe. Garbe seems to be playing much better lately, has he figured something out or is his improvement just a fluke.
How would you rate Garbe on your future 40? Thanks Dave.
I am glad Jones is showing improvement in some areas of his game. I just wonder if the 66ers play in an extreme hitters park. Nomar’s little brother his hitting 314/444/471 in twelve games. I would like to believe that this is a trend that will continue for the M’s former high draft pick, but I my guess is that such hope will soon be extinguished.
[deleted -- yes, it was off-topic]
Assuming the M’s take a top college player, when is a reasonable timeframe for them to arrive in the majors?
Dave,
Some rumors have the M’s absolutely stuck on Tulo come hell or high water. Do you believe this to be the case, or would they take Gordon or Upton if they have the opportunity?
Dave, a technicality: For the “Graduates”, wouldn’t all of their ETA’s be 2005?
How would you rate Garbe on your future 40?
I wouldn’t. He’s not a prospect. I doubt he ever makes the majors.
I am glad Jones is showing improvement in some areas of his game. I just wonder if the 66ers play in an extreme hitters park.
They don’t. The Cal League has a few ridiculous hitters parks (High Desert and Lancaster), but San Bernardino is actually one of the more pitcher friendly in the country.
Assuming the M’s take a top college player, when is a reasonable timeframe for them to arrive in the majors?
One year is pretty standard. If Gordon or Tulowitzki was picked and signed in time to make his debut this year, you could expect him to head to Inland Empire or maybe even San Antonio to finish out ’05, and then start next year with SA or Tacoma, depending on how well he’s progressing.
Some rumors have the M’s absolutely stuck on Tulo come hell or high water. Do you believe this to be the case, or would they take Gordon or Upton if they have the opportunity?
They like Tulo, but if Gordon or Upton are there, I don’t see them passing.
Thanks for answering all these questions.
Is Adam Jones or Rob Johnson (or someone else entirely) the biggest surprise (positive) to you so far this? Who has disappointed you the most?
Jones is the biggest positive surprise, certainly. Even those who liked Jones a lot didn’t see this coming. Doyle’s return to health and whacking the ball all over the place like he never missed a day has also been a very pleasant surprise.
The biggest disappointment? Can I just take all of the Double-A and below pitchers? Besides Livingston, there’s basically no one pitching well at San Antonio, Inland Empire, or Wisconsin.
#24 Dave,
Well said, I think Mumba Rivera is the only other pitcher who has done much and he was old for his level.
Odd to see Choo’s extra base hits nearly the same as Jamal Strong. Is Choo’s power a myth?
In regards to a future catcher: I see that Rivera and Johnson are the same age; Johnson was given a 5 on reward and Rivera a 4. Johnson’s expcted arrival is 2008, while Rivera’s is 2007 (assuming that current callup is shortlived).
Does Rivera have a chance at becoming “cather of the future”? What about Johnson?
In regards to Olivo BEFORE the trade to the M’s, any idea about where he might have been?
Thanks for the comments…
(I saw Jim’s comments at #5, but didn’t see an answer yet)
Interesting article on the infield prospects for the M’s at Wisconsin.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/050602dish.html
Johnson’s reward being higher is probably a case of “he hasn’t proven he can’t hit yet”, which isn’t my favorite kind of analysis, but I don’t really have anything better to go off of. I’ll be stunned if Rivera is even a servicable hitter as a regular player, and realistically, I think he profiles as a backup catcher, which is why he gets the “4″.
Choo’s got a weird swing, and I’m not convinced it’s going to translate real well to the majors. I’ve never been a huge fan. His prolonged lack of power isn’t a huge surprise.
Given the state of the lack of viable prospects in the Mariner minor league system why isn’ t more hell raised about who exactly is responsible for this dearth of talent. It’s been like this for years. All of our pitching prospects get hurt and our position prospects end up being Willie Bloomquist or Andy Sheets. Doesn’t this make anyone else wonder abbout the abilities of the men in charge?
I’ve said enough mean things about Frank Mattox on the blog to be permanently crossed off his christmas list. Outside of egging his house, I’m not sure exactly what you’d like us to do.
Dave, perhaps this is simply due to the dearth of promising pitching performances in our minors, but given his results last year and so far this year and his age, should I have some glimmer of hope that Cesar Jimenez might make a decent MLB pitcher? Can you shed more light on what his strengths and weaknesses are from a scouting perspective?
what about Rifken in Tacoma? Is he just a career minor leaguer with streaky power?
Jimenez is a change-up guy. He throws 86-90 with below average movement on his fastball and has a lethal change-up, one of the best in the organization. It’s definitely his out pitch. Unfortunately, he has no breaking ball to speak of, and everything he throws is relatively straight. He gets batters out by changing speeds and throwing strikes. As you can see, his strikeout rate has continued to drop as he’s climbed the ladder, and I don’t think he has enough stuff to consistently get swings and misses at the big league level. He needs a breaking ball of some sort, and right now, he just doesn’t have one.
what about Rifken in Tacoma? Is he just a career minor leaguer with streaky power?
Yep. AAAA player.
RE #31. Yes, that would be a good start, bring the message home, as it were.
I was curious about the same as #11 — what about Hunter Brown? His hitting definitely picked up from his awful April…
sorry to even ask this, but Garbe? Does our Moses Lake friend have a shot? He seems to remember how to play baseball this year (at least from the box scores)
How does Jon Huber project? He’s been pitching poorly, but he got a spring training invite, so the organization must be somewhat high on him. I would imagine his future is as a reliever, but does he have potential as a starter? When is it possible to see him in the majors, or is he strictly minor league material?
How do the M’s sign Wake Forest Catcher JB Tucker as a Free Agent?
Had he already entered the draft (last year) and not get drafted?
He was a fifth year senior, and they are allowed to sign with anyone once they finish their last class.
The timing of the announcement is interesting, though, considering that the “silent period” started Tuesday, when teams are not supposed to be able to sign anyone until after the draft. The deal was probably done last week and just hadn’t been made public until today.
The article said he signed on Monday.
Didn’t know about the silent period though. Interesting.
Geez. Maybe I should read the first sentence of the article next time.
Actually, more embarrassing is that I can see Wake Forest from my house, and I’ve never seen Tucker play. Now that sucks.
(laughs) It’s all right, I didn’t even make it to see the Huskies play this year despite the best of intentions to do so before the season. Then again, if I was caught watching Lincecum labor through 150+ pitches in just six innings, it might not have been worth it.
Have you heard anything on Rollie Gibson or Michael Schilling, the two draft-and-follows we signed, or do MLB.com and the Fresno CC website pretty much have all the available info at this point?
I got nothing. I’m hunting around, but my calls aren’t being returned very promptly this week, what with the draft and all.
Dave, I really appreciate all the work that goes into the Future Forty. I also thought I’d point out that Boucher’s first name is spelled “Sebastien,” and that his name on the list is linked to Ismael Castro.
I’m wondering why Dobbs ranks as a “3″ in reward when “1″ is 25th man, a job he currently is failing at.
Always great work, Dave.
must be because of that “sweet stroke” of his.
How about Casey Craig, I think you should kick up his grade a little bit. Also, you should write more posts about him.
Maybe you guys can point me in the right direction: where is the news of Bentancourt being sent to Tacoma? I’ve look on many sites and can’t find any official news. Even if they have he has not played at all which is also strange. Thanks.
Devin over at Lookout Landing just called Tacoma Assistant GM Kalal and got confirmation. He’s as reputable a source as any.
Thanks DJC. Now, the next question is why wasn’t this mentioned anywhere — strange. And why haven’t they played him — so strange.
Well, since he was just called up today, they haven’t played him.
Oh. I actually had read just one line in Tacoma News Tribune (maybe?) that he was called up but this was the same day Morse was called up. Anyway, nevermind. Thanks.
Betancourt played for San Antonio on Wednesday and is playing for Tacoma tonight. He has not missed any games.
Dave- If in deed both Upton and Gordon fall to Ms who is the better fit? Which one would make the big league first.
Everything I have read it seemed Gordon ideal fit; but the prospect of Upton is tempting. Is he really the best prospect since A-Rod and Junior? Would he accept a move to centerfield?
I’m pretty sure Gordon would make it to the show first.
Hey Dave,
I was wondering if you would answer my question, its # 11
Thanks.
Bobby Livingston is looking like a good pitching prospect to me. This year he picked up in AA where he left off at A ball.
Does anybody know if Wisconson playes in a pitchers park, or hitters park?
#59: In 2003 the Midwest League played slightly to pitchers (97.5 league factor), but Wisconsin played as a pitchers park within the league (105.3). Combining the league factor and the park factor, Wisconsin was probably a slight pitchers park.
Does Betancourt moving to AAA mean we might see Adam Jones and Asdrubal Cabrera move up as well?
For us Portland-area fans, here’s how the rotation looks for the Rainiers series:
Sat 7:05 Campillo
Sun 2:05 Moss
Mon 7:05 Baek
Tue 12:05 Lorraine
Looks like we’ll miss King Feliz altogether, unless it rains in Sacramento.
Damn. NWS says sunny and hot in Sac’to.
And I know it’s “Felix.” Fat fingers.
#63
So Felix’s new nickname is “Fat Fingers?” j/k.
Too bad you won’t see him. But the prospect of rain in Sacramento is laugable, isn’t it?
Matt
Rob may have a lot of work to do defensively behind the plate but he calls a great game and has an absolute cannon.
Dave you should start putting up comments on each one of the players again those are really fun to read.
I am rather new to the site. Have you actually seen any of the Mariners prospects below Tacoma? Or are you just looking at their stats and reading the Baseball America Prospect Guide to us.
Wow, that’s not a loaded question or anything.
Dave lives in the South and sees more of these guys than is reasonable for any non-professional.
I try to see everyone interesting at Everett and Tacoma, and inevitably fail.
I was just wondering, I live in Wisconsin and have seen virtually every Timber Rattlers game for the last 8 seasons.
And I’ll also add that I’m not a tenth of the baseball scout Dave is.
While I’d love to have the time and resources to travel and watch each team play, it’s not something that I have the luxury of doing at the moment. So, unfortunately, a lot of the players I haven’t had a chance to see in person myself. I rely pretty heavily on a network of friends I’ve been lucky to come in contact with over the years; scouts, player development officials, players, announcers, and other various people whose eyes I have learned to trust. Through those guys, I’ve got access to professional scouting reports for nearly every player in the organization from guys who have been evaluating talent for decades.
Hopefully, you find the information here more detailed and in depth than you’ll find in BA’s prospect handbook (though I’d recommend everyone purchase one as well; John Manuel, Jim Callis, and crew do a great job at BA), and while statistical analysis plays a role, I’d hope that the evaluations I give reflect a knowledge of each player beyond his current performance.
Dave  Do you know anything about Erwin Jacobo? The M’s signed him as a draft and follow along with Saunders, Gibson, and Schilling….
Well, I’m not Dave, and I’m sure he can probably get in touch with someone on this one, but I ran a few searches and it looks like Jacobo attended Palm Beach Community College and played as 3B/P this season. Not much else aside from that (they don’t have stats or player profiles to speak of), but the 2004 Draft Tracker at MLB.com has a little info on him.