June Future Forty

Dave · June 2, 2005 at 7:04 am · Filed Under Mariners 

The Future Forty has been updated for the month of June. Mostly minimal changes this time around, with two additions (Rob Johnson and Sabastian Boucher) replacing two players who are underperforming and running out of time (Rich Dorman and Jon Nelson).

The biggest move up the charts belongs to Adam Jones, who moved from Project to Future Prospect and saw his reward rating bumped up from a 6 to a 7. He hasn’t gotten a ton of recognition, but Jones has been on fire the past month, raising his season batting line to .313/.388/.548. 28 of his 65 hits–43 percent!–have gone for extra bases. He’s still a free swinger (19 walks, 49 strikeouts) and has a lot of work to do on breaking balls, but the offensive surge Jones has seen is a very good sign for his future. I’ve been publicly critical of the Jones selection and postulated that he may end up on the mound at some point in his career, but he’s making those comments look quite foolish. Jones’ defense at short is still fairly poor, however, as he’s on pace to make nearly 50 errors on the year. However, the M’s continue to remain committed to him as a shortstop, and it’s not a bad idea to try to get as much value out of a young player as possible. With his offensive surge at age 19 in high-A ball, Jones has moved himself into legitimate prospect status, and now ranks fairly evenly in my eyes with Asdrubal Cabrera and Matt Tuiasasopo.

Also flying under the radar a bit, but having an encouraging start to 2005, is personal favorite Oswaldo Navarro. He’s hitting .274/.361/.371 in Wisconsin, which doesn’t sound like much, but is a huge improvement over his disastrous affair in full season ball last year (.211/.295/.248). Navarro is posting a 22/24 walk to strikeout ratio, showing improved contact ability and discipline at the plate, and despite his underwhelming power, has knocked 13 extra base hits. He’s always going to be a defense first player, but if his bat continues to develop, there is still an outside chance that he could turn into an Omar Vizquel type of player. It’s a longshot, and he’s going to remain in the project category until he shows some offensive potential at higher levels, but he’s one of the few players in the Project category who has the potential to become a regular major league player at some point.

Also, in case you hadn’t noticed, the M’s organizational pitching is a disaster, almost from the top down. It’s absolutely amazing how poorly the pitching staffs are, from the big league club all the way to Wisconsin. Trying to find a legitimate pitching prospect to get excited about in the low minors is nearly impossible.

The next update will come at the beginning of July, and hopefully, the third overall pick will have already signed and we’ll get to add another name to the line of legitimate prospects in the organization. Feel free to use this thread as a prospect/draft catch all, as pretty much anything minor league related fits in well here.


72 Responses to “June Future Forty”

  1. David J Corcoran on June 2nd, 2005 4:38 pm

    Devin over at Lookout Landing just called Tacoma Assistant GM Kalal and got confirmation. He’s as reputable a source as any.

  2. ray on June 2nd, 2005 4:41 pm

    Thanks DJC. Now, the next question is why wasn’t this mentioned anywhere — strange. And why haven’t they played him — so strange.

  3. David J Corcoran on June 2nd, 2005 4:42 pm

    Well, since he was just called up today, they haven’t played him.

  4. ray on June 2nd, 2005 4:53 pm

    Oh. I actually had read just one line in Tacoma News Tribune (maybe?) that he was called up but this was the same day Morse was called up. Anyway, nevermind. Thanks.

  5. mike on June 2nd, 2005 6:00 pm

    Betancourt played for San Antonio on Wednesday and is playing for Tacoma tonight. He has not missed any games.

  6. fiction on June 2nd, 2005 6:23 pm

    Dave- If in deed both Upton and Gordon fall to Ms who is the better fit? Which one would make the big league first.

    Everything I have read it seemed Gordon ideal fit; but the prospect of Upton is tempting. Is he really the best prospect since A-Rod and Junior? Would he accept a move to centerfield?

  7. duder on June 2nd, 2005 7:24 pm

    I’m pretty sure Gordon would make it to the show first.

  8. Grant on June 2nd, 2005 7:31 pm

    Hey Dave,
    I was wondering if you would answer my question, its # 11

  9. edwin on June 2nd, 2005 8:38 pm

    Bobby Livingston is looking like a good pitching prospect to me. This year he picked up in AA where he left off at A ball.

    Does anybody know if Wisconson playes in a pitchers park, or hitters park?

  10. Steve on June 2nd, 2005 9:20 pm

    #59: In 2003 the Midwest League played slightly to pitchers (97.5 league factor), but Wisconsin played as a pitchers park within the league (105.3). Combining the league factor and the park factor, Wisconsin was probably a slight pitchers park.

  11. Jim Osmer on June 2nd, 2005 9:22 pm

    Does Betancourt moving to AAA mean we might see Adam Jones and Asdrubal Cabrera move up as well?

  12. Brian Rust on June 2nd, 2005 9:26 pm

    For us Portland-area fans, here’s how the rotation looks for the Rainiers series:
    Sat 7:05 Campillo
    Sun 2:05 Moss
    Mon 7:05 Baek
    Tue 12:05 Lorraine
    Looks like we’ll miss King Feliz altogether, unless it rains in Sacramento.

  13. Brian Rust on June 2nd, 2005 9:31 pm

    Damn. NWS says sunny and hot in Sac’to.

    And I know it’s “Felix.” Fat fingers.

  14. Matto on June 2nd, 2005 9:51 pm


    So Felix’s new nickname is “Fat Fingers?” j/k.

    Too bad you won’t see him. But the prospect of rain in Sacramento is laugable, isn’t it?


  15. Guest on June 2nd, 2005 9:51 pm

    Rob may have a lot of work to do defensively behind the plate but he calls a great game and has an absolute cannon.

    Dave you should start putting up comments on each one of the players again those are really fun to read.

  16. jgrusz on June 2nd, 2005 10:15 pm

    I am rather new to the site. Have you actually seen any of the Mariners prospects below Tacoma? Or are you just looking at their stats and reading the Baseball America Prospect Guide to us.

  17. DMZ on June 2nd, 2005 10:19 pm

    Wow, that’s not a loaded question or anything.

    Dave lives in the South and sees more of these guys than is reasonable for any non-professional.

    I try to see everyone interesting at Everett and Tacoma, and inevitably fail.

  18. jgrusz on June 2nd, 2005 10:24 pm

    I was just wondering, I live in Wisconsin and have seen virtually every Timber Rattlers game for the last 8 seasons.

  19. DMZ on June 2nd, 2005 10:30 pm

    And I’ll also add that I’m not a tenth of the baseball scout Dave is.

  20. Dave on June 2nd, 2005 10:36 pm

    While I’d love to have the time and resources to travel and watch each team play, it’s not something that I have the luxury of doing at the moment. So, unfortunately, a lot of the players I haven’t had a chance to see in person myself. I rely pretty heavily on a network of friends I’ve been lucky to come in contact with over the years; scouts, player development officials, players, announcers, and other various people whose eyes I have learned to trust. Through those guys, I’ve got access to professional scouting reports for nearly every player in the organization from guys who have been evaluating talent for decades.

    Hopefully, you find the information here more detailed and in depth than you’ll find in BA’s prospect handbook (though I’d recommend everyone purchase one as well; John Manuel, Jim Callis, and crew do a great job at BA), and while statistical analysis plays a role, I’d hope that the evaluations I give reflect a knowledge of each player beyond his current performance.

  21. Iowa M's Fan on June 3rd, 2005 6:08 am

    Dave — Do you know anything about Erwin Jacobo? The M’s signed him as a draft and follow along with Saunders, Gibson, and Schilling….

  22. J on June 3rd, 2005 8:47 am

    Well, I’m not Dave, and I’m sure he can probably get in touch with someone on this one, but I ran a few searches and it looks like Jacobo attended Palm Beach Community College and played as 3B/P this season. Not much else aside from that (they don’t have stats or player profiles to speak of), but the 2004 Draft Tracker at MLB.com has a little info on him.