Draft Coverage
The M’s will be selecting in approximately three hours, so this post will be continuously updated throughout the day as we hear things.
1:08 pm
Jeff Clement is the M’s pick.
1:08 pm
Gordon to KC. Darn.
1:07 pm
Upton #1 to Arizona.
12:30 pm eastern
At this point, all indications lead to the first two picks being Justin Upton and Alex Gordon, with the M’s then choosing between Jeff Clement or Troy Tulowitzki with the third pick.
10:30 am eastern
Having talked with two members of the Diamondbacks organization and getting input from several others who have as well, there seems to be almost no chance that Arizona passes on Justin Upton. He’s a pretty near lock to go #1.
9:45 am eastern
Baseball America has projected the M’s to select Jeff Clement, a catcher from USC, with the third selection, after Justin Upton and Alex Gordon go #1 and #2 overall. Clement has gotten a lot of late buzz, as the M’s ideally would love to have a power hitting left-handed catcher, and Clement’s power is nearly on par with that of Gordon’s. However, there is wide disagreement in the game as who the third best player in this draft is, and the M’s have certainly not locked themselves into Clement. They’re hoping and praying that Upton or Gordon fall, but it appears that Clement has an edge over Tulowitzki as the consolation prize. Nothing is concrete at the moment. No one is certain what Arizona or KC are going to do, and there’s still a non-zero chance that the M’s get one of the two highest ranked players on their board.
Comments
171 Responses to “Draft Coverage”
What is the best way to follow the draft?
Mlb.com is doing a webcast I think.
There will be streaming video/audio at mlb.com, but the quality has been very spotty the past few years. Baseball America will have a draft tracker, but their server has crashed the last few years, due to the millions of people hitting their site at once. I wouldn’t be surprised if we got hit pretty good this afternoon (nowhere on BA’s scale, obviously), so practice patience and have a lot of different options.
Well, If Clement can carry his power and stay at catcher it could be great, but drafting any catcher this high seems akin to me like picking a HS pitcher.
Let’s hope KC go with Pennington and Gordon falls. I’ve been following Tulowitzki pretty closely the last couple of weeks and I was pretty much at peace with that choice should it happen.
Someone tell me Clement will be ok.
oh boy… another first round catcher. Maybe we can trade him for a useless pitcher.
Clement’s a high risk, high reward pick. Think Jason Varitek, part two.
I’d stick with Tulo if Gordon/Upton fall through. He’s a safe, reliable pick. He won’t be a superstar, but he’ll be a good player, and shortstop is just as much a weakness as catcher. I don’t know how you take a riskier Clement over a safer Tulo.
Seems like Clement is a reach at #3. Nice year in 2005 but preceded by two sub .300 seasons. Zimmerman is a better overall hitter and has the defensive skills to make the switch to SS or 2nd if blocked by Beltre. Why not Pelphrey or Hochevar? Not like we have enough pitching.
Looking back at some #3 picks over the past 5 years has lessened some of my anxiety about this pick. Typically when I see info about player A and player B being the best players and or most talented and then I see a Seattle team taking player C, be it the Sonics, Seahawks, or Mariners, I tend to get pissed off and decry may fate as a Seattle sports fan. But the #3 picks in the MLB draft over the past five years haven’t really been anything to write home about.
And while certainly some of those players could still develop into stars and we know little about what the #3 2003 and 2004 players might do, you just kind of have to put your faith in the scouting director and or gm and in this case hope Dave is right about Bob Fontaine having a good idea of what he is doing. With signability issues theoretically not being as much of a factor for the Mariners as some other teams you have to hope they’ll select who they think is the most talented player at this pick. That’s why I’ve accepted Tulowitzki and Clement as their possible selections while still clinging to the slim chance that Gordon might fall. If not though, I’ll be patient for the next few years and give Fontaine the benefit of the doubt.
Its not like Clement came out of nowhere. The guy is the national record holder for home runs in a HS career. He’s been a top prospect forever. And realistically, everyone seems like a reach at #3 this year. There’s two great prospects, and then a lot of similar guys.
Pelfrey and Hochevar are Boras clients.
Zimmerman is Edgardo Alfonzo lite. He’s also a stretch at #3.
Edgardo Alfonzo lite? I sure hope that’s the circa 1999 or 2000 versions of Edgardo, because you can’t get much lighter than Alfonzo now.
Good points Dave. Just worried about the lack of quality data points on Clement. After overpaying for Beltre after 1 good year are is Clement similarly overvalued?
There are no guarantees with any pick, and we’re just going to have to wait a couple of years to see what the outcome of this one was.
That being said, What’s a realistic timeline Dave for Clement being in the Majors? With our atrocious catching depth I’d say he could really motor through the system and be a September call-up next year, and start in 2007?
Enough of this draft talk. It’s a call to arms: Sexson jerseys, EVERYONE!
Clement’s not as MLB ready as the other college guys, especially behind the plate. I’d imagine that if he signed quickly, they’d send him to Inland Empire for this year, San Antonio next year, and if he progresses well, he could fight for a job in spring training of 2007. If he stalls, we’re looking at ’08.
Great, so the M’s can take a 20 something catcher that needs to be in the minors for 3 years. Years aren’t something you want to waste on a catcher.
I can’t say that I am overly excited about the idea of Clement. Isn’t his defense said to be Piazza like?
It’s all good, Clement, Tulowitzki, Gordon………the only thing that could ruin my day would be if we pick Mayberry Jnr.
#16: So is his bat though.
Any thoughts on the likelihood of Clement staying behind the plate at the MLB level?
Dave thanks for this post. I’ve already covered the usual suspects for draft coverage and like usual this is the best place for M’s coverage.
Another thing to consider with Clement, that while it may not seem like a big deal, is legitimately part of the equation: he’s left-handed. Look at the M’s system and roster. Almost every power source swings from the right side, yet the park is built perfectly for left handed sluggers.
Beltre, Sexson, Lopez, Tui, Jones, Balentien. The organization has basically no real left-handed power. If Clement swung from the right side, Tulowitzki would probably be the pick. But how many players does the organization want to commit to that are going to have to fight the ballpark?
Have there ever been any side deals (or reported secret deals) where a team pays off another team so they pass on a player in the draft?
Seems like a good time for such a thing to happen….
Hopfully the dropoff in Clement’s homers are a result of being being pitched around. Looking at his ridiculous OBP I’d say that’s a good assumption.
I am starting to reconsider my stance on Clement, primarily because Gordon and Upton will only worsen the bottleneck of outfielders on the M’s.
Clement’s defense has gotten better reviews this year than in years past. No one loves it, but a lot of that is because scouts love leaders behind the plate, guys who yell and scream and show some energetic displays of heart. That’s not Clement, but that doesn’t mean he can’t catch.
He’s probably never going to have a great defensive reputation, but it also doesn’t sound like he’s incapable of playing behind the plate.
Yeah when I saw Tulowitzki was left-handed I thought the same thing Dave. It also made me want Alex Gordon that much more.
If Griffey only knew how friendly to LHB Safeco has turned out to be
Having legit LH power will be a nice bonus.
Whoops “Tulowitzki was right-handed.”
#22, I think that would just be considered a trade, and illegal.
Thus, it’d be cheating, not a side deal. I’d imagine MLB would negate the picks and penalize the teams in cash and future picks.
Dave,
The left-handed point is a great one, if Clement doesn’t stay behind the plate, I am sure that he could still be very valuable elsewhere (what other positions does he project to??) with that left handed power!
P.S. is it harder for a left handed catcher defensivly (like a lefty SS). Do they catch stealing base runners as well?? How is his arm?? How does he handle pitchers??
I’ve noticed there hasn’t been much talk about Maybin, but in your original rankings Dave, you had him at #3. Between Maybin and Clement who would you rather see the Mariners take if the Mariners were hypothetically considering both? And where do you think Maybin will go?
With Clement, we get a guy who has power, who hits left handed, and can’t be any worse behind the dish than Miguel Olivo. Whats not to like?
#29. He bats lefty and throws righty.
#28, that’s kinda why I said “reported secret deal”.
Kinda like it was being reported that Stephen Drew signing also had a Boras client being picked #1.
Also he has thrown 50% of runners out attempting to steal this year. I don’t know about his ability to call a game though.
I don’t know what Dave has heard, but Maybin has been asking for a big signing bonus and is scaring some teams off. The Nationals and Brewers have interest, but he could fall even further.
To think that MLB cares about enforcing its rules is folly. Teams are also not allowed to reach predraft agreements, according to the rules. It happens every year. The MLB draft is full of unfollowed rules.
Maybin’s asking price is causing him to slide.
If the M’s weren’t so loaded at SS I would say go after Daniel Cox (W.F. West HS). This kid is the next big thing. He is the purest hitter ive seen in this years draft.
Re: #21
I would understand your argument, Dave, if Clement was nearly MLB-ready. But we won’t (I pray) have the same roster in 2008 and later. There’s now way to know if our roster will be RH-batter heavy or LH-batter heavy. Yeah, there aren’t a lot of lefties in the system, but a few trades and free agent signings could take care of that quickly.
And that’s why we’re thrilled you’re not in charge, Mike. Daniel Cox probably won’t even get drafted today. If he gets drafted at all, it will likely be tomorrow, and he’ll end up at UW.
Mike Bannon –
Holy heck. That was my high school years ago. I don’t think I’ve ever actually seen it’s name in print outside of Chehalis before. Odd.
I just want to know… is Clement gritty? ‘Cause if he is, I say pass. I want less grit. I’ve seen grit. It’s le me down.
Clement or Tulowitzki, no problem. Maybarry Jr. then I will be upset. I would be very happy with Maybin, and even happy with one of the two Boras client pitchers, Pelfrey or Hochever.
” … I’ve met WFB, and you are no WFB …”
Dave -
I am still holding out hope for Alex Gordon. What is the latest you’ve heard about the Royals pick at #2? Are they going to pick Gordon or will the price scare them away?
So when does this all start happening?
I don’t have any great contacts with KC, so I’m getting most of my info on the #2 pick from outside sources, which I’m not that comfortable with. It sounds like Gordon wants a major league deal worth about $5 million, and the Royals are willing to do it, so he’s probably headed to KC. That’s not great info, though.
MLB.com’s coverage of the draft kicks off at 12:30. First pick is around 1 pm eastern.
I’ve been up for over six hours already, and the Mass Spectrometrists at this conference are dull (to my uneducated mind anyway). I want something to distract me from the airconditioned chill in San Antonio. It’s below 60F in here.
Thanks Dave
The Royals are willing to cough up a $5M ML contract? Fair play to them. Nice day to be a Royal fan for a change. Can’t begrudge them that.
Here are links to the MLB.com draft page and the Baseball America draft page for your following pleasure.
Why couldn’t we have lost just a few more games?
Sherri Nichols’ Law of Catcher Defense, corollary: heavy-hitting catchers ALWAYS have poor defensive reputations. Poor defensive reputations are CAUSED by heavy hitting.
And I like Clements’s plate discipline a lot. Power and walks, lots and lots of walks. Not only that, but he talks about it, he understands why it’s a good thing to walk.
I’m no expert, and I’m not saying they should definitely or even probably take him, but that’s what I see. I worry about all these college “shortstops” who turn out to be CFs (or DHs) in real life….
As long as they don’t take a pitcher…
Already had 4 orange sodas and a 20 oz triple shot latte in waiting. I am rooting for Tulo.
There are no safe picks in a Draft. Tulo has no power. Go with the power hitter with patience. If Clement doesn’t end up a Catcher, he can always play first base. Last time I checked the M’s were void of 1st basemen high prospects in the minors. Yes, I with Steve…no pitchers.
#53, I’ve had 2 sugar free Red Bulls. I’m ready.
Gordon
Upton
Tulowitzki
Clement
Hochevar
Let’s get it right Mr. Fontaine.
Might I recommend MLB.com’s DraftCaster?
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/events/draft/y2005/draftcaster.jsp
Tulo is a far lower risk, however, plus he is virtually ready to step in at shortstop. Rather than make a run at Furcal next year, I’d much rather have Tulo manning short. Catcher is a hole that should be filled with proven veterans, I think. If Gordon and Upton don’t make it, they’d be silly to take Clement. Power can be developed.
Tulo has power. He played in one of the toughest hitters parks in all of college baseball and still posted a .150 ISO. He’s not going to be a middle of the order hitter, but he can slug .450 in the majors.
Word on the street out here in Kansas is that nobody knows what the hell is going to happen with the Royals. Logic would say Gordon if Upton is Selected. Upton if Arizona opts for pitching. KC is a strange place though. Logic doesnt mean much (When it comes to managing a baseball team). Some around here are VERY nervous that ownership is gonna blow this one. This is the cheapest club around, and some wouldn’t be surprised to see the Royals went against conventional wisdom of “best available player” to “Best affordable player that will actually sign here”.
Personally I dont know. I only care as much as it effects a Seattle decision. Just thought I’d pass this on from the land of the Royals. This stuff is just from Royals junkies. I have no real connections.
Why are we not interested in Craig Hansen? He throws upper 90′s with a wicked slider and could be setting up in September. If Gordon is there, he is the pick, but if not, I would be fine with Hansen.
He’s a reliever. We have 204 of them in the organization. He’s also advised by Scott Boras.
Is Tulo really almost ready to step into SS at the ML level?
Or are we just fooled into believing this? I ask because I don’t know the answer.
I guess my question is “Who is the best almost ready ML level player available?” That would probably be my pick, given the lack of real prospects.
BTY, when I say “lack of real prospects” I mean difference making prospects in the Mariners system.
Tulo probably needs a year in the minors, at least. Maybe two.
The most MLB ready is Craig Hansen, but that’s because its easy to be a major league reliever.
Oh, no–a caffeinated David J. Corcoran . . .
a la Huston Street with Oakland. However, I’ve read that Hansen is not in Street’s class. Do you agree Dave?
Yeah, I’m not interested in a reliever. I’d like a position player. If Tulo would be ready to be above average for the long haul in a year, he’s my pick.
Dave, how much different of hitters are Gordon and Clement? I was big on Gordon becuase of he’s LH, but so is Clement at a premium position. Given seattle’s catching woes, would Clement be on the fast track? I noticed BA has Clement as a better power hitter than Gordon…
There is absolutely no reason to draft a reliever in the first round. I don’t care how good they are.
Hansen has better stuff than Street, but Street graded out as well as as anyone in recent history in work ethic/makeup. Some organizations would prefer Hansen’s stuff, others would prefer Street’s makeup.
Thirty seconds between each pick? They’re slowing it down this year.
Dave..Are there any high reward players that will fall to later rounds the M’s may draft and offer them big dollars to sign? Thanks
Gordon’s future power is a 75 on the 20-80 scale. Clement is an 80. So, in that sense, Clement has more power, but Gordon’s a better hitter across the board. Gordon looks like a .300/.400/.550 kind of hitter, where Clement’s more like .270/.370/.500. Gordon’s going to hit for more average and more doubles, Clement’s going to walk a little more and perhaps hit a few more homers.
The M’s won’t have money in the budget to take a player who slides, and since they don’t pick until the fourth round, there probably won’t be any real values that get to their second pick.
And here we go…
the Diamondbacks choose…
What’s the chance that a player like Tulo might develop power as he matures? I know Ryne Sandberg didn’t show much power (5-10 HR) in the minors and his first couple of years in the majors, but by his mid-20s he was a 25 HR guy (when 25 HR was a lot). Looking at Jim Thome, his minor league totals aren’t impressive and he suddenly jumps to 32 at AAA/ML year.
…they choose on hold music!!
All things being equal, this organization could really use a lefthanded power hitter, especially one who can also catch. A well-rounded legitimate major league shortstop is not bad either.
As long as the M’s avoid soft-tossing lefthanders or defense-impaired shortstops with .650 OPS ceilings, today will be a good day.
haha. Good god. This is makign me extremely nervous. C’mon. Skip the commentary. I’d rather hear dead space than commentary.
C’mon shocker, shocker, Craig Hansen please!!
…they choose Peanuts’ teachers voice!
MLB’s Radio Network is a joke. They screw this up every year.
Boy, you just got your wish DJC
… we will get to that in just a second … WTF?
This really doesn’t have the spectacle of the NFL draft does it? No big gathering in New York with people holding up jerseys…
What’s going on? Is there going to be a draft or not?!
C’mon guys, radio has been around a while, so has streaming audio, you would think we could get actually get the pick without this crazy stalling.
SHUT UP!
Their website is also flaky at best (what else is new). The draftcaster isn’t doing anything.
First mistake — choosing Sun’s IPlanet Appserver way back when…
Come on KC, get cold feet about Gordon and leave him for us.
Fred Claire says on MLB.TV M’s might go with Clement as per advice of former USC pitcher Pat Gillick…
My best guess is that the draft is done by people phoning into this studio and AZ is having phone problems… maybe they’re being talked into drafting someone lame.
always be suspect of people who throw the word “fact” around…
Oh the delay is due to the Yankees not being there… sheesh
Yanks are absent…
Damn Yankees.
damn Yank-mes!
Upton… oh well
Justin Upton
Ah! Upton goes NO. 1!
Damn!
KC selects…
Come on Royals… Come on…
Damnit yankees, delaying the draft
And there goes upton… come on KC mess this up.
They should lose their picks for that.
shut up!
Come on Royals… Come on…
Gordon
Damn deux!
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrggghhhH!
upton off the board.. i guess BA is right on with clement being the likely pick
..
Dag Nabbit. Here we go.
Clement.
Jeff Clement, USC
So we get…
Clement
Clement? Was Clement selected????
Is it me or does it suck that we don’t get to listen to the damn annoucnments. Hey lets blab on and on, oh ya gordon to KC, blah blah blah.
COME ON, shutup and let listen to the picks.
Again for the m’s, geez these guys suck.
there it is, so the yankees showed up
Dave..How is it possible a high revenue team such as the M’s do not have money in budget to sign a player that may have slipped due to questions regarding signability?
Anything new on the catcher signed last week? What type of prospect is he? The one out your backdoor?
I guess I’ll be able to watch the new M in Corvallis this weekend…
man, I forget from year to year just how fast the baseball draft goes…
This is from Rich Lederer’s Baseball Beat – a fantastic read always. Rich is a big college fan (heck, I think he is just a big baseball fan). The link is in my name:
“On the other hand, the opposing catcher, Jeff Clement, is projected to be among the top dozen players taken. Clement is ranked the number-one power hitter in Baseball America’s draft preview. I’ve rarely seen him get a hit, but he takes a vicious cut and has put up good numbers during his college career at SC.”
So basketball gets five minutes, football gets 15 and baseball with way more players to select from gets 30 seconds? Does this make sense to anyone?
I’ll take Clement! Lefty with pop. Our catchers are crap. if he can come up in two years and be as good as projected, our catcher woes will be over!
The major league draft selects 1500 players. It already takes two days. How long do you want them to wait? Spread this thing out over two weeks?
Tulo’s a Rockie.
Oh. I hope they made the right decision…
Oh! And Tulowitzki goes to Colorado!
#120. Yes, the NFL draft is unwatchable. and the MLB draft isn’t (yet) made for TV.
Yahooo!!!!
I like the pick. Clement is the number one power prospect in the draft and with Gordon gone, it seems like a good fit.
So what changed recently that propelled Clement from a middle-first-rounder all the way up to #3?
Watching MLB.com most of these players look like kids. Clement looks more like a real big leaguer than most of the guys that followed. I hope that translates into a power hitting left handed catcher in the majors in a couple year vs. 5 years.
i wonder if rivera’s impressive debut during the last week had them questioning the pick of clement.
Re: 130, the fact that Olivo SUCKS and the other catchers in the organization haven’t shown a whole lot. Plus he’s a power hitting lefty. He fits the needs better than another SS.
and mayberry goes to the Rangers. damn.
Anybody else hate BA’s site design?
I figured the A’s would take Pennington, he’s a perfect fit statistically it would seem.
Wow, into the 20s and Hochevar and Hansen are both still on the board. The Boras effect at work I guess.
#135, yeah I can’t stand it either.
So Baseball America’s preview got the first 18 picks right. It wasn’t until the Rangers selected Mayberry that they got one wrong.
Do you suppose Clement will be competing with Borders for the catcher spot in 07?
Here comes the Sexson compensation pick.
I hate BA’s site design also. They could do a much better job. Also, slightly disappointed with the fact that I need to go to mlb’s site for a good, instantly updated draft tracker. BA will come in with stronger material later, but would like it more instantaeously. This is their bread and butter and they should do a better job at it.
I’d love to see Borders and Clement split catching duties in 2007.
Borders is going to pay until he’s 55.
BA is massively understaffed. Its amazing that they’ve built an empire with essentially 6 or 7 full time writers. They do an amazing job considering their resources.
where can I get a list of the picks, I am watching the draft coverage on MLB.com, but they are doing a ton of human interest junk
#145 you can find it here. http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/events/draft/y2005/draftcaster.jsp
is hochevar’s fall strictly the boras effect?
Maybe Borders, Wilson and Clement will split duties in ’07. Clement will be Jeff Faserro’s personal catcher.
gotta love the tigers draft so far, maybin AND hochevar.
mlb.com has hochevar going to the dodgers.
Yeah. Hochevar to the Dodgers. The Tigers second pick will be in the third round. They lost their second round pick to the Angels for their Percival signing.
my bad.
#148- but who will Ben Davis catch?
What’s the word on Justin Thomas?
Ms pick Justin Thomas, a lefty from Youngstown St U…
Can anyone elaborate on this pick?
I really like the Clement pick. I’m not as sold on Tulo. Yes, he’s low-risk, but I’d put Clement at medium risk with a much higher reward. I just couldnt see doing Tulo with the 3rd pick. Pity that the Dbacks and Royals both decided to be smart.
We can watch videos of our guys.
Thomas: Well proportioned frame. Medium shoulders. Strong legs. Similar to Al Leiter. Good arm speed. FB has arm side tailing action. Occasionally turns FB over w/ sink, fade action. Slider has tight spin w/ good break. Getting feel for circle change, some deception w/ fade. Competes.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/components/events/draft/y2005/tracker/tracker_lastName_T_1.html
Kahn: Strong, powerful, well proportioned physique. Quick, live arm. FB is mostly 92-93 w/ numerous 94′s. Occasional cuts FB. Flashes ML CB, tight rotation w/ late bite when on top. Power pitcher who’s not afraid to challenge hitters. Power arm, doesn’t finesse.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/components/events/draft/y2005/tracker/tracker_lastName_K_1.html
#70 80 power in the future hahhhh you must be nutzz 80 power is bonds like.I asked a friend of mine who has been scouting for 25 years if he had ever put a 80 future power on a player his answer was 1 of course i said who he said Darryl Strawberry and that me and said why would you ask?I said i hear the catcher from usc has 80 future power and he said maybe 60 if you like him.
uhhhh jc…
So a College guy has to be hitting homers at a Bonds like pace to rate out as high as you can by a scout?
Also, I would like to add that there are probably 2 “shift” keys on your keyboard.
For those of you who care……
The Colorado Rockies selected Everett Community College pitcher Zach Simons in the second round of today’s major league draft.
159 Strawberry came out of Hi School .80 is the top # on the board the best a player can be.Upton i heard got some 80s but this isnt a easy # to give if you know what your looking at.Kerry Wood had a 80 fastball coming out of hi scool he was throwing 94-98 that is a 80.
There are some great pics of M’s 5th round pick Michael Lance Lynn at his high school website. Scroll down to the pics and look for the URL’s that say Lynn……
http://www.brownsburg.k12.in.us/bhs/Athletics/BASEBALL/varsityteam.htm
7th round: Robert Rohrbaugh, LHP, Clemson.
http://clemsontigers.collegesports.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/rohrbaugh_robert00.html
The A’s have selected 4 HS pitchers already.
164. Blimey, really?
and jc, for Christ’s sake try harder! Your posts are infuriating to try to read.
The M’s have dominated their draft thus far with pitchers. Probably a good idea considering the rather laughable stock from AA on down that Dave was recently kvetching about.
165 – Yep. 4 of their first 8 picks.
You could check, but MLB’s DraftCaster just broke.
5/8 pitchers (through 10th round)
Three lefties (Thomas, Rohrbaugh, Asher)
and two righties (Kahn, Lynn (HS) )
I think its safe to say that Rohrbaugh’s name will get butchered in the broadcast booth … assuming he makes it to the bigs…
Very fitting that on draft day, an often overlooked “Moneyball Player” (although one of the dumped players) was just called up. Marshall McDougal of the Ricardo Rincon trade.
anybody else notice that almost all of the M’s position draftees bat LH? 6/7