Game 72, Mariners at Padres

DMZ · June 24, 2005 at 6:53 pm · Filed Under Game Threads 

RHP Meche v LHP Darrell May.

What a pitching duel this is going to be. I’m going to make a prediction: scoring four runs will not win this game.


143 Responses to “Game 72, Mariners at Padres”

  1. Noel on June 24th, 2005 9:40 pm

    99: You read my mind…

  2. anotherjeff on June 24th, 2005 9:40 pm

    Agreed. Hope the power starts to show up as he settles in. But Hey…I’ll take what he’s giving for now.

  3. Bob on June 24th, 2005 9:42 pm

    so we’ve been flirting with last place – and technically until this game is over we are in last place since oakland just won – but since TX has been scuffling we are also (somewhat) flirting with second place. anaheim is really starting to separate themselves in the division.

  4. G-Man on June 24th, 2005 9:44 pm

    So, who is the most useless guy in the pen? The guy you’d use with a ten-run lead? I’d sayin Shiggy or Thornton before RV.

    No, I’m not considering who’s pitched in recent games. No, I’m not worried that any of them could blow a ten run lead.

  5. LB on June 24th, 2005 9:45 pm

    Wouldn’t this be a great situation for JJ Putz? He could give up a grand slam without blowing the lead.

  6. Bob on June 24th, 2005 9:46 pm

    ‘cuse me, “los angeles of anaheim.” or as jim rome says, “los angeles of fullerton of orange county of rancho santa margarita of long beach of san diego of anaheim.”

  7. Noel on June 24th, 2005 9:46 pm

    103: Thornton.

  8. Paul Covert on June 24th, 2005 9:47 pm

    Nice to see Beltre’s OBP up at .304.

    And Morse (27 for 68) is now four hits ahead of Bloomquist’s early-career pace (after Willie’s 15-for-33 run in September 2002, he started 2003 by going 8 for 35 through May 6).

  9. Noel on June 24th, 2005 9:52 pm

    Boonie’s been practising his bat-flip.

  10. J.R. on June 24th, 2005 9:53 pm

    Boone! Is he coming around?!?!

  11. Rusty on June 24th, 2005 9:53 pm

    I hope the other MLB teams have scouts watching Boone tonite. This looks as close to the old Boone as we’ve seen. It would be nice to get at least one half decent prospect for him.

  12. Jay R. on June 24th, 2005 9:54 pm

    Wow…Morse is just en fuego. :knocks wood:

  13. Noel on June 24th, 2005 9:58 pm

    Good hit by Borders, didn’t try to pull it, didn’t over-swing… maybe he was watching Boonie’s remedial batting lessons.

  14. lauren, token chick on June 24th, 2005 10:01 pm

    What happened to Boone? ESPN gamecast doesn’t show him getting picked off
    base or caught stealing…

  15. Paul Covert on June 24th, 2005 10:01 pm

    Soriano in Everett this evening: 1 IP, 6 BFP, 1 K, 1 BB, 1 HB, 1 H, 1 R/ER.

  16. G-Man on June 24th, 2005 10:02 pm

    Boone tried to score on a wild pitch and was out at home.

    #110 – my thoughts exactly.

  17. Noel on June 24th, 2005 10:07 pm

    Wow, Thornton didn’t blow it.

  18. Jim Osmer on June 24th, 2005 10:08 pm

    3-3 two doubles, walk, sf, stolen base, 2 rbi

    let’s hear it for the ever increasing sample size

    and his soul is so sold to the devil

  19. Noel on June 24th, 2005 10:08 pm

    Perhaps some of the other M’s tried to sell their souls to the devil and the devil wasn’t interested.

  20. Jim Osmer on June 24th, 2005 10:09 pm

    my wife and I think Morse looks like David Blaine which could explain his hot start.

  21. PLU Tim on June 24th, 2005 10:10 pm

    I hope the devil isn’t running a pawn shop, giving Morse the chance to buy back his soul.

    Keep that MoFo.

  22. Noel on June 24th, 2005 10:20 pm

    Can anyone believe that Meche is now 8-4?

  23. Noel on June 24th, 2005 10:27 pm

    Morse is back over .400… .406, to be exact. Who does he think he is, Ted Williams?

  24. argh on June 24th, 2005 10:45 pm

    Man, I’ve never seen anybody left dangling in the wind as long as Reyes was tonight, at least since Nixon decided to hang Haldeman and Erlichman out to dry. (obscure historical reference for you youngsters)

  25. Steve Thornton on June 24th, 2005 11:13 pm

    Through 82 plate appearances:

    WB: 315/402/411, bad D at SS
    MM: 406/500/536, adequate D at SS

    That Michael Morse kool-aid is starting to look awfully tasty; I may just have to drink it soon.

  26. Mojambo on June 24th, 2005 11:15 pm

    “Can anyone believe that Meche is now 8-4?”

    Isn’t this his walk year? That won loss record is going to sucker some team. I hope it’s not Seattle.

  27. DMZ on June 24th, 2005 11:26 pm

    That comparison’s a little scary — what if Morse’s opening hot streak is like Bloomquist’s September call-up, and… enough said.

  28. Jim Osmer on June 24th, 2005 11:33 pm

    I thought Meche had one more year before free agent. Still even in abitration he may get much more than he deserves. Probably the worst 8-4 pitcher in baseball. Reminds me of that year Paul Abbott won many painful games.

  29. Aaron on June 24th, 2005 11:35 pm

    Morse also has XBH and BB rates similar to Ichiro (over his career, anyway). It’s a fun ride as long as he’s hitting .400, but when he drops to .260, he is significantly less valuable. As long as the singles keep falling in, he’s one hell of a contributor.

  30. Typical Idiot Fan on June 25th, 2005 12:07 am

    Paul Abbott never had the stuff Meche does. Today’s game was a case of someone not having their best material, but still doing enough to win the ballgame. We’ve seen dominant Meche, and we’ve seen not so good Meche. Tonight was something in the middle. The 7 K’s were nice, but the 3 walks, 4 runs, and 2 HRs not so much. His fastball was 88-91, his curveball was only going for strikes maybe 20 percent of the time, and the rest of his pitches couldn’t get over either.

    But he still won. 4 runs isnt too bad, when you compare it to May’s 9 runs given up. The job of the pitcher is to give up fewer runs then the opponent’s. He did that, just barely.

  31. LB on June 25th, 2005 12:16 am

    Sorry, but I can’t even consider 4 ER in 5 IP even mediocre. Do that every start and your ERA will be 7.20. If a “Quality Start” (6 IP, 3 ER) yields an ERA of 4.50 and the aggregate American League ERA is 4.28 (per Baseball Prospectus), 7.20 should be good enough to get you a job as a mop up man pitching garbage innings.

  32. Steve on June 25th, 2005 1:20 am

    One thing about Morse that sticks out, and drives up his OBP and value, is his 5 HBP. That’s tied for 20th in the league, with Manny Ramirez, Torii Hunter, and a bunch of other guys who’ve played a heck of a lot more than 22 games. That’s only one short of his walk total. I guess it’s a skill. It’s a way to protect the inside of the plate, at least.

    He’s not Bloomie, though, I don’t think; his stint is over twice as long as Bloomer’s September, and Willie proceeded to stink in early 2003, while Morse is still going strong. Considering the mileage WB is still getting out of that month almost three years ago, Pokey Reese ought to be a bit worried….

    Let’s just say I’m not BUYING it yet, but I’m definitely enjoying it…

  33. adam on June 25th, 2005 3:35 am

    Well, LB….Meche has in ERA in the 4.5 range….so cool. Overtime, things balance out, he isn’t a 7 ERA pitcher.

    He’s a pretty good back of the rotation starter, who generally has really good stuff… command depending on the day.

  34. Typical Idiot Fan on June 25th, 2005 3:40 am

    Sorry, but I can’t even consider 4 ER in 5 IP even mediocre. Do that every start and your ERA will be 7.20. If a “Quality Start” (6 IP, 3 ER) yields an ERA of 4.50 and the aggregate American League ERA is 4.28 (per Baseball Prospectus), 7.20 should be good enough to get you a job as a mop up man pitching garbage innings.

    So Meche gives up 4 runs in 5 innings this time, and that makes him a bad pitcher?

  35. JMB on June 25th, 2005 5:48 am

    Good prediction, D.


  36. mln on June 25th, 2005 6:58 am

    Michael Morse had a 3 for 3 night with 2 doubles, an RBI, a walk and a sacrifice.

    Why, he’s better than Ichiro!

  37. mln on June 25th, 2005 7:02 am

    And since Gil Meche is 8-4, does that mean he is going to win 20 games this season? Crazy ass game, baseball is. Maybe it’s because both their names begin with M. Call them the M&M boyz.

  38. Archie Leach on June 25th, 2005 7:05 am

    After looking at the numbers using probability theory, I think it might be time to re-evaluate the small sample size theory regarding Mike Morse.

    Using the assumption that Morse is going to be about a .260 hitter (which is the working assumption around here), the small sample size disclaimer worked all right at around 35 at bats. Using binomial probability theory, a .260 hitter hitting .400 or better in 35 at bats, while still uncommon, isn’t that out of the ordinary. (The probability of a .260 occurence happening 14 or more times out of 35 is .045 or .049, depending on if you use the exact binomial probability or the binomial approximation of normal distribution.) That’s about one in twenty; somewhat uncommon, but most .260 hitters would probably have a streak like that every year or two.

    But for a .260 hitter to do what Morse has done over 69 at bats is ten times more difficult. The probability of a .260 hitter getting 28 or more hits in 69 at bats is either .0044 or .0058, depending on the method you use; which comes to roughly one in 200. So while it’s not out of the realm of possibility for a mediocre hitter to sustain a tear like Morse has been on, it very seldom happens. Which means that either, (a) he’s gotten off to a very, very lucky start, or (b) he’s going to be better than a .260 hitter. I prefer (b).

     (If any of you want to mess around with the numbers, is a nice tool to use.)

  39. Jake S. on June 25th, 2005 7:08 am

    1901- Chicago hit 5 triples in the eighth inning.

  40. johnb on June 25th, 2005 9:12 am

    One theory that is going around out there is simply that Morse is a late bloomer that fell through the cracks because nobody thought a man of his size and tools was ever going to make it at SS. It was always assumed he would change positions then not be able to hit well enough to merit playing much in the majors at the corners, or in the outfield.

    He may be experiencing a breakthrough to a higher level of play that nobody expected. The late bloomer theory is based on the fact he is only now growing into his size and gaining the full command of the skills he needs to compete at the major league level.

    I don’t expect him to be Ted William’s, or even Carlos Guillen, but every day the theory that he will slump soon and hit around .240 as projected by every sane person is slowly being replaced.

    I watch Morse at the plate and in the field and he sure is giving one helluva an Alex Rodriguez imitation.

  41. John D. on June 25th, 2005 9:12 am

    Re: (# 9) SEXSON’S SUSPENSION – Mike Hargrove is being paid big bucks to come up with ideas like this, and you’re giving them out for free! My!
    [BTW, too sensible to fly.]

  42. DMZ on June 25th, 2005 9:30 am

    w/r/t Morse breaking through/being a late bloomer/discovering skills — there’s very little precedence for this kind of a leap ever happening before and sticking, and certainly not in modern baseball (with its organized, stocked minor leagues).

    All of these theories to explain why his performance is real don’t make a whole lot of sense and really, here’s the most important counter-argument:

    Morse, in his minor league career, in 1,576 minor league at-bats before this year, never hit better than .287. His OBP has never been better than .336 (both of those at Birmingham (AA) last year). With the Rainiers, he hit .253/.317/.407. If any of the age-related/growing into himself/etc theories were right, it happened all on 5/31/05 — how likely is that?

    You can do that kind of binomial distribution in reverse, too — what are the chances that Morse’s real talent level is close to what he’s just put up, but his minor league career showed a .260/.320/.400-ish shortstop (that power number seems too low, but you get my meaning) for 1,758 at bats?

    It’s like what, 20 standard deviations from the norm… a (doh! using the less-than sign ate this post initially) under 0.000000001% chance or something similarly insane. Even the chance that he’s a .300 hitter and under-performed in the minors that long is far less likely than this being a fluke.

  43. Scraps on June 25th, 2005 12:23 pm

    For that matter, it doesn’t make sense to say that something with a 1 in 200 chance “very seldom happens.” How many players are playing every year? How many things are measured? 1 in 200 events are happening many times a year.