Game 73, Mariners at Padres

DMZ · June 25, 2005 at 12:51 pm · Filed Under Game Threads 

Wow, 1:10… didn’t see that coming. Televised on (metallic whiiiirrrr— pow!) Fox!

RHP Sele v RHP Peavy.

A couple of points from last night’s game — that Sexson double-play ball, Beltre totally dogged it on his way to second, only starting to hustle when the ball was dropped, running way out to the outfield side of the baseline, not sliding at all. Is he trying to save his hamstrings?

Then, it didn’t matter if he took the guy out or not, though it’d have been nice if he’d run hard and been safe, because Sexson was out by half a mile, a ridiculous distance. He didn’t run at all. And at that point in the game, they weren’t up a thousand to four.

Using cool-o-matic statistical probability only:
Chances that Morse is a .300 hitter but hit .260 in his many minor league at-bats: 20 deviations from the mean, ~0.005%
Chances that Morse is a .400 hitter but hit .260 in his many minor league at-bats: zippo
Chances that Morse is a .260 hitter having a crazy hot streak: ~0.4%

While it’s unlikely that this is a crazy hot streak, it’s about eighty times more likely that’s the case.

A more likely scenario (Morse, being fairly old, is a little better than his minor league career numbers) gets the “hot streak” probability up to like 1, 2% depending on what you set the stats at.

Boy, I wish I’d saved this for a PI article now. Hey, wait — nobody mention this to anyone, and I’ll write it up anyway next week.


151 Responses to “Game 73, Mariners at Padres”

  1. strong silence on June 27th, 2005 12:35 am

    I’m not ragging on the Beltre signing but comparing two off season “moves” made by two competing GMs. (I liked the Beltre signing at the time and still do.) Bavasi has to take risks because he isn’t as talented as the other 3 GM’s he competes against. Also, The M’s ownership was willing to take more risk becuase they have more to lose than Oakland (in terms of revenue and place in the community.)

    But I am willing to admit a mistake about Beltre. Anyone would expect more from a guy who would have won the MVP last year if Bonds were not in the league.

    Beltre’s walks could be due to a number of things. True improvement will be seen when he shows power. We have Ichiro and Reed to set the table (and maybe Morse and Doyle) next year.