Down to the wire
Dave · July 31, 2005 at 12:07 pm · Filed Under Mariners
The trade deadline is officially 55 minutes away, but keep in mind that a lot of deals are completed at near the last minute and don’t become public for several hours. As long as the paperwork is in the commissioner’s office by 1 pm pacific time, it beats the deadline. So, if you don’t hear anything at 1:01, don’t panic.
As for the latest news, it sounds like Villone to Florida for Yorman Bazardo is just about done.
Edited to add: Confirmed, the Mariners have dealt Ron Villone to Florida for Yorman Bazardo and Mike Flannery.
The M’s are still asking for a big return for Guardado, and they may or may not get something done on that front.
It sounds like everyone else is going to stick around.
Comments
160 Responses to “Down to the wire”
Is it possible that the Twins get desparate and just blow us away with an offer for Ibanez?
man, that would be nice
i just hope they can get something done with Guardado
Gameday has Ojeda and Jamal Strong on the Mariner’s bench.
Yes, Strong was recalled this morning and Ojeda has reported. Depending on what else they do, they’ll have a roster move on Tuesday when Torrealba reports.
Speaking of Torrealba, I just finished calculating his stats for his Grand Salami profile — he’s thrown out 42% of runners trying to steal from ‘03 to ‘05 and he has three passed balls in his whole career (208 games). Olivo had 28 in 268 games…
Ojeda wearing #2. Ouch.
Yeah, Torrealba seems to be great behind the plate. I’m looking forward to his lights-out defense.
35 minutes…
I’m not sure why we keep trading for pitchers. Don’t get me wrong, pitchers are good, I like pitchers. But it seems like all our currect prospects are pitchers or defensive specialists, and what we really need is an outfielder who can slug.
Since we’ve been hearing Bazardo’s name a lot, can anyone here who knows more about him than I do (i.e. more than his basic Minor League stats) please fill me in?
I’m just looking forward to seeing some new blood. At least if the M’s still suck, they’ll suck with new faces…
Bazardo is ranked as BA’s No. 3 Florida prospect:
“The Marlins designated him one of four untouchables in their system at the July trade deadline. . . . Bazardo might have the best overall arm in the system . . . . Bazardo’s long limbs allow him to deliver a 92-94 mph fastball that has touched 98 as late as the eighth inning.”
Scooter… I hope they get all the pitching they can possibly find. Our rotation is screweed for next year. By far our biggest concern if you ask me.
Snelling can slug. So can Bucky and Strong, some.
It’s a lot easier to find a slugging outfielder in the next offseason than it is a top or middle rotation starter for our pitching staff.
Indeed, there’s no reason to panic. After all, such memorable deals as Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb were announced after the deadline.
[ducking]
Others, including Dave, may disagree, but I think that’s the right approcach with Guardado. Whereas Winn, Villone, and Olivo were clearly expendable (albeit for different reasons), Eddie isn’t a guy with zero value, blocking a younger player, or a guy you *have* to move. If they get something shiny for him by playing teams against each other, great. If not, keep him or try to move him this winter.
jason
Yorman Bazardo — 21 years old, rated the marlins number 3 prospect, great fastball, nice curveball.
Yorman Bazardo — 20 y.o. RHP, not real big (6′2″, 170), but a live arm, works in the mid-90s and can throw harder; also throws a sinker and a plus change, and is working on adding a slider. He seems to have a “dare you to hit it” approach to pitching, which might explain why he doesn’t strike out all that many guys (5.6 K/9 last year in A+, 6.1 this year in AA). Plus, of course, he’s a young pitcher, so he still has a lot to learn about keeping his mechanics consistent, using his pitches, etc. The low K rate is worrisome, but he has a heck of an arm.
Why would they give up their number three prospect for Villone? Are we sure that’s not for Guardado?
ESPN just said that the Rangers have announced all of the teams that are interested in Soriano need to back off because they have changed their minds, and Soriano is no longer on the market.
If we’re not going to be particularly worried about taking on salary next year, I bet there will be a left-handed batter with decent power and apparently declining center field skills available from Cincinnati over the winter.
Oops–wasn’t thinking, he’s 21 now.
Right before they went to break on Baseball Tonight just now they said steve phillips was on the phone, Jayson Stark got a phone call last night during the show when the mariners traded Winn… Cant wait for them to come back from commercial
I was wondering the same thing #18…thought aht might because I still fantasize about seeing my favorite all time player back in a Mariners uniform…
I’ve seen Bazardo quite a bit, and tried to talk Jonah Keri into including him in last years Marlins chapter of Prospectus. He throws a legit 97, but its pretty straight, and he doesn’t miss a ton of bats. He’s got a 12-6 curve that, when he’s spinning it well, is a hammer. He’s inconsistent with it though, and can leave it up in the zone. He’s showed the makings of a change, but it’s still in development.
Good arm, power pitcher, needs some polish. Definitely a great pickup for Villone, though.
Scooter – my guess is that they keep after starting pitchers because they are hard to ‘grow’ through the draft…it takes a *long* time for them to develop into ML’ers. As for position players (like outfielders with sock), BB is making some really smart moves for next year’s roster by freeing up some FA payroll space and getting a good read on guys like Doyle. The M’s will be in pretty good shape for FA’s in the offseason…quite an achievement if you consider what they just spent last offseason.
Jason Stark from ESPN just said “This is the wierdest trade dedline i’ve seen. It seems that all anyone’s gonna get it Geoff Blum. Definitely very strange. I’ve talked to about 15 or 20 teams today, and a lot of them said that they’re not gonna get anything done.”
From ESPN News.
Here’s Sickels on Bazardo, from “The Baseball Prospect Book 2005″:
Bazardo, a Venezuelan, has one of the best arms in the Marlins system. His fastball can hit 97 MPH, and he pitches consistently in the 93 MPH range. He also throws strikes, and his fastball sinks with the best. His changeup is also a sound pitch, but he’s still having problems getting his breaking ball to work properly. Statistically, this all shows up in his ratios. The good command is confirmed by his +71 percent K/BB. The sink on his fastball is shown by the very low home run rate. But his K/IP (-23) and H/IP (-7) are both worse than you expect to see from a pitcher who throws as hard as he does. Ratios like that are a constant in Bazardo’s career, and confirm the scout contention that his breaking ball still needs a lot of work. He is quite young, and has time to figure this out, but his performance in Double-A in 2005 will give us very important data on his future, one way or another. Grade C+.
jason
also, remember that there’s another deadline. this isn’t our last chance to trade.
Wierd…
Jayson Stark just said on ESPN News that the Marlins said that they weren’t doing anything today.
It’s all nuts.
Re: Snelling can slug.
Eh, kinda. His minor league slugging pecentage is .486, and that ain’t bad. But he’s also only hit 33 HRs in 1348 minor league at bats. I was kind of thinking we could use someone who helped us not be last in the league in HRs.
Re: Jamal Strong can slug
No he can’t. He’s got 7 minor league HRs, and a minor league slugging pecentage of .374. He’s a little speedy guy with no power.
I would definitly like to get Bazardo. I think he would be very interesting to watch. By the way, I don’t have a link, but you can see about a 30 second video clip of Felix Hernandez pitching on the Tacoma News Tribune website.
for all it is worth Vargas just got the hook after no pitches.
Gameday on MLB.com credits him with 1.0 IP and 1K.
30: unless you get injured a pitcher can not leave after throwing NO pitches. He must face at least one batter.
So does yahoo
Giambi just hit his 14th July homer.
Regarding Bazar-o,
A low homerun rate would be a nice change (i.e. the opposite of Moyer, Pineiro, Meche and Franklin-despite pitching @ Safeco).
So what are our chances of picking up Manny from the Sox? It still seems like we have things they need and we could definately use him. I know it’s not going to happen, but a guy can dream, can’t he?
Also, on of my good friends ran into Miguel Olivo in the elevator of his building last night. He talked to him a bit about the trade and said Olivo seemed crushed. It’s too bad, I really liked that guy and wanted him to turn things around here.
It’s official
Villone for Barzado and Mike Flannery.
Also, which one of our horrible starters is getting the boot to make way for Felix? I was hoping we’d dump one of them, but it looks like we can get rid of Sele now, right? (ohpleaseohpleaseohpleaseohplease)
36, source?
38, just announced on pre-game show on TV.
Link?
It’s true.
Doh, I meant 37, not 38.
The deal was just announced on FSN. Not who we got, but that Villone is gone.
A source, a source, my kingdom for a source!
Now that is exciting that finally something got done
The source is KOMO radio just now.
corrected 11 pitches. Treanor just yanked as well.
awesome..
anything interesting on Flannery?
Interesting. Getting Bazardo for a spare part like Villone is awesome. Flannery looks like an OK guy to have tioling around the minors.
MY hunch is that’s it for the M’s. Guardado, Moyer, etc…all stay put.
Flannery. He’s just a warm body, or does he have potential?
say vargas treanor and yorman
BP reporting that Moyer rejected a trade to the braves.
A little blurb I found on BA…
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/chat/041223jm.html
Q: Charles from from Atlanta asks:
Kevin Cave and Mike Flannery took big steps backwards this season do the Marlins still have plans for them? Also Messenger has always been very hittable why did he have so much success last season?
A: John Manuel: Messenger was more aggressive in the strike zone out of the bullpen, held nothing back and got better results. I think he just got tired in the AFL. He has better stuff and is more aggressive in the zone than Cave or Flannery, who are still around but obviously have been passed.
That is a crazy coup for Bavasi it seems.
This is the most exciting weekend of the season for a Mariners fan.
ok flanerry yorman (lol).
Saw that in another article… why would he reject a trade to a division leader?
May I propose three cheers for BB?
marlininsider.com rates Flannery as their 30th best prospect. He’s got a decent fastball (90-92) and apparently his slider is his out pitch. A ground ball pitcher.
Here’s Flannery’s 2005: http://tinyurl.com/7sguh
He’s older, gonna be 26 in September. He was closing at AA (and doing well), before moving up to AAA (and not pitching so well). I think he falls into the “warm body” category.
jason
note to jamie moyer:
you’re killing me babe! go get a shot at a world series and then come back here next year, if you want! help us (and maybe yourself) out for future years!!
Wow. You can’t knock that move. No way. Wow. Just. Wow. Bavasi is my hero.
They are about to cover the trade on ESPN.
Buster on ESPN Mentioned the Moyer block of the Braves & Astros Earlier today.
54 Agreed. Most exciting time since the Beltre signing.
Go BB go! Pitching, pitching, pitching. I think our bats will come around with Adrian’s seasoning in the AL and our youngsters experience. But we need arms in a major way. Seems like our starting rotation couldn’t strike anyone out if their life depended on it.
Sweet. And Shiggy’s going to drop off the books next year as well (unless he starts getting used heavily the next two months), so that’s 5 million or so not being spent on the bullpen we can put in the rotation.
ESPN, before the commercial break, just reported, “Looks like there HAS been a trade for the Marlins”. Looks like Villone’s departure is about to be announced on national TV after the commercial break…
I’d still like to get a slugging outfielder. Pitchers are dicey, and sluggers are expensive to sign as free agents.
Sorry… you guys beat me to the punch…
I reallllly like what BB is doin here at this deadline, getting rid of expendable parts and tryin to restock the system a bit that has been totally devoid of good prospects for awhile, see what he can do about Guardado to really help out the farm… Just remember that just because it isnt mentioned before 1 doesnt mean it wont happen.
What’s happening with that “eyewitness report” about Sherrill leaving Tacoma? Is he headed to Seattle? Elsewhere?
Oooh, the key to today’s game is keeping the ball in the park.
5 minutes…
Bazardo…excuse the dumb question…but is he a starter or reliever?
starter.
Dave,
I don’t know if you can answer this or not, but did Bavasi mention at the feed that the M’s were going away from pitchers that “use their defense” and going for more power arms? These deals seem to me like there is a shift in the organization’s approach to starting pitchers.
Bazardo is a starter for now.
ESPN reported it! Villone for 2 minor leaguers! Nice!
He won’t necessarily stay as a starter, though. Like a lot of power arms in the minors who lack a change, a lot of people think he’s got a better shot to have a career in the pen.
Bazardo is a starter right now. Could turn into a reliever at some point though.
I think Eddie stays. This isn’t so shocking- they like his attitude.
31 seconds….
game thread open…
77, actually Bazardo looks like the prototypical “use your defense” type pitcher.
Trade dedline!
And also, I think Bavasi might have noticed that Mateo and Putz have panned out pretty well as home-grown and cheap relievers, and they picked up Nelson pretty cheap. There really isn’t a reason to spend $15-20 million on your bullpen.
I think it would have been cool to trade Guardado for Bazardo just because of the sound of it.
72, my presumption is Sherrill’s driving to Seattle to take Villone’s spot in the ‘pen. I’ll be watching for him to show up at Safeco during the game.
Some quick Bazardo links:
In December, he was listed as the Marlins’ third-best prospect by Baseball America. WikiPedia entry. Minor-league stats through 2004. Numbers in 2005 so far.
Yuniesky, Yorvit and Yorman — oh my.
89, I had the same presumption. I certainly hope we are correct. Sherrill for closer in 06!
Villone for Bazardo and Mike Flannery.
Hooray for Bavasi. If the Ms fire him next year, I hope they bring him back as an advisor on dump trades at the deadline, because he’s a freakin master.
buddy groom to diamondbacks
Farnsworth to Braves
#91, as I said, three cheers for Bavasi…it feels like it’s been a long time since the Mariners had a productive trade deadline…even though they were dumping, not trying to win.
BTW, the SF Chronicle reports that Aaron Sele was originally part of the Winn deal, but after the last few starts, the Gints said nahhhhhh . . . .
At this point in time, Bavasi has a backup catcher, a scrub catcher, a potential starter, two potential bullpen guys, and one warm body in exchange for Winn, Villone, and Olivo.
Tampa, at this point, hasn’t made a deal.
Pittsburgh, at this point, hasn’t announced a deal.
So, kudos to Bavasi for understanding basic baseball economics, something the Rays and Pirates couldn’t get.
Neyer’s reaction: The Marlins just picked up Ron Villone from the Mariners, for a couple of Grade C pitching prospects. Good moves for both teams.
Lawton to Cubs…details in a moment they say
anyone have any more info on Bazardo? is he really a grade ‘C’ ?
If we’re talking about a Sickels’ C grade, that is a decent grade.
Neyer knows less about prospects than anyone here. Including jc.
so did Guardado not happen?
I don’t think we know….but it’s looking like he’s still here.
Ehh, I wouldn’t be too hard on those catchers; from their track records, it would seem that both Torrealba and Ojeda are solid candidates to post .700 OPS, and they’re both really good gloves behind the plate. Collectively, then, they should give us the best catching situation we’ve had in a while. Besides, if Torrealba out-hits Winn the rest of the season — which he could, if Hargrove gives him the chance — how can you complain?
They finally figured out that Sherrill is there.
As for Guardado, the deadline’s over, but there will be deals trickling out for a while yet, so we don’t know.
104. Torrealba v Winn.
Yeah, but that’s hardly likely is it? It’s still a good deal for the M’s though. It’s not like we’ll all be sitting around for the rest of this year and next pining for Villone, Winn and Olivo.
Dave, what with the anti-Neyer bent? I’ve noticed it in another couple of posts.
I love reading Neyer’s stuff. He’s a great writer with plenty of insight. That said, however, there are some holes in his knowledge and some plain biases in some of his analyses. I totally agree with Dave’s estimation of Neyer’s knowledge of prospects. Also, I have never seen anything that Dave has said that is particularly anti-Neyer. I think for the most part Dave judges things people write based on the merits, not on who writes it.
BP Transaction Analysis for this trade starts:
Wow, leave it to the Mariners to move the one guy everyone who needed a center fielder seemed to be willing to barter for, and what do they get? A backup catcher who won’t fix their catching problems and an already damaged oversized pitcher to squeeze into their homegrown menagerie of similarly lucky pitching “prospects.” I’ve said Bill Bavasi was burdened with a peculiar form of genius before, but it’s rare when it flowers into such strange and useless fruit. There’s nothing in the Giants deal that will help the Mariners win now, or next week, next year, or ever, so at best, it’s a salary dump, but more basically, it’s pathetic. The Mariners deal is just an addendum to that, where he dumps a previously good idea to make way for his latest inspiration.
Rob is what he is. He writes well about historical baseball stuff, and he introduced a ton of people, including me, to advanced statistical analysis. But he knows absolutely nothing about prospects, and his opinion on the Villone trade should be taken with as many grains of salt as a random KJR caller.
Don’t even get me started on Chris Kahrl…
“Don’t even get me started on Chris Kahrl… ”
Why not? Sounds like it could be amusing
Does anyone know anything about Yorman Barzado or Mike Flannery? The little bit I read indicated that Yorman has a decent arm.
Official Sherrill news.
LINK
Does that really count as official?
What would? It’s not like it’s a trade rumor or anything. I don’t see any reason for Rotoworld to make up a recall announcement.
13. Yes, that might have been the second worst trade in Mariner history. The worst was a whole lot of pitching (Swift, Burba, Jackson) for an outfileder who could slug, Kevin Mitchell. Who, once in the american league turned into Jeff Cirillo.
Rotoworld reports that Boston announced it didn’t complete any deals by the deadline, so I guess we can all stop dreaming about how nice it’d be to have Sanchez in a Mariner uniform. Damn.
I would have had a party to have Cirillo hit .286 with a .351 OBP.
#90:
After the trade, the Giants called up Catcher Yamid Haad to take Yorvit Torrealba’s place on the roster. So if Bavasi had negotiated harder, maybe we could have Yuniesky, Yorvit, Yorman, and Yamid.
I would have thought Nelson would have been traded, I guess he can get through waivers to be traded this month?
I think it’s a big loss not to have traded Guardado when his value was likely at its peak. Now, we have a 35-year-old closer with a bum rotator cuff who’s throwing 89mph and who may not be healthy by the next trade deadline in ‘06 when we’re selling yet again.
One thing I was glad to see was the Mariners hanging onto Michael Morse and all of the rest of their prospects, for that matter. Not that I’m a rabid Morse fan or anything. I just feel that prospects, especially ones with major league experience, are more valuable to trade in the offseason. I’d like the Mariners to go more aggressively after trades in the offseason than free agents. If we could package Morse, Reed, and whomever else that the DRays or Reds might want, I would dearly love to have either Huff or Dunn in 2006.
Frankly, I feel that none of our guys except Ichiro and Felix are untouchable in regards to getting Huff or Dunn. If the Reds wanted Doyle, Morse and Lopez for Dunn, I’d do it.
You do realize that Aubrey Huff isn’t very good, right?
I’d give Huff the benefit of the doubt that the first 3 months of this year was just tough luck. Going into the year PECOTA had him projected at an EqA of .301. That sounds pretty good, doesn’t it Dave?
125:
Yuck, not me. No way.
By contrast, year beginning EqA’s for this year’s Mariner outfielders…
.277 Reed
.277 Ichiro
.266 Ibanez
.275 Winn
Dave,
Where would you put Bazardo in the future 40?
Went to Everett last night and of course Clement got the night off. However Justin Thomas looked good, looks more like a reliever than a real starter though. Does he have a chance?
Dave,
Now that we have saved some money by trading a few veterans, any chance we may go sign a guy like Pascual out of the Dominican (I believe) It would cost us a few million but at 6-6 could be a potential superstar and the #1 ranked player over there right now? Nice young pitcher
The M’s, like every other team in baseball, have seperate budgets for major league payroll and amateur acquisitions. Unless they do something revolutionary like shift the money from one account to the other, I wouldn’t expect today’s moves to impact the international signing budget at all.
Huff’s a lousy defensive player who can hit .290/.360/.500. We already have that. He’s called Raul Ibanez.
New Future Forty coming this week.
Justin Thomas is spent. His arm is tired after pitching the college season, which is why he’s in the pen now.
But you can see his stuff is solid. 89-91 on the fastball, plus change, solid command.
He’s a starter.
So what’s the overall take on the three deals? Any one stronger than the other? From what i’m reading they are all relatively similar – potential future talent in spots where we are running short. The exception is the C we pulled for winn, but that makes sense, since winn was the most valuable of the chips traded.
I’m really surprised about guardado not moving. And now i’m curious again as to why betancourt is up. I’d love to find out about the deals that fell through (including what houston had on the table for moyer that had the front office willing to deal)
Okayyyy… I stand corrected.
Wait a minute… maybe I’ll take another go at this.
Dave, even if I take your word about Huff as the truth, why would we not want 2 Raul Ibanez’es on our team? One can DH and one can hide in LF. Not only that, but Huff can adequately fill in at 3rd base if for any reason Beltre has any kind of injury.
I love Doyle as much as the next guy and maybe he will develop the power we need from an outfield position. But we are so sorely lacking in it now and I fear it might take another 2-3 years for Doyle to get there. And, by the way, I formulated the Doyle, Morse and Lopez trade for Dunn, whose EqA projection was .321, well above Huff’s. I’m not sure I would ever give up Doyle in a trade for Huff. What I’m saying is that with Huff, Doyle would make a great 4th outfielder who could get 350-400 AB’s until he either develops fully or until the team can afford to go lighter in the outfield.
And, by the way, I formulated the Doyle, Morse and Lopez trade for Dunn, whose EqA projection was .321, well above Huff’s.
I don’t see why this is important to the argument.
I don’t see why this is important to the argument
It isn’t directly. It is sort of addressed to 128 who said “Yuck” in response to it. I just wanted to make clear that I wasn’t advocating necessarily giving up Doyle in a Huff trade.
My argument remains. Ibanez is the 2nd best power hitter on the team and an attempt to get 2 of him doesn’t sound like too bad an idea. However, a quick scan of Huff’s park-neutral stats next to Ibanez leads me to believe that Huff’s a bit better than what Dave is giving him credit for.
My greater point is that trades should be emphasized more during this offseason than free agent signings because we have some trade fodder in guys like Morse, Lopez, Reed, etc.
Re: #132
Dave–
The M’s batting order could use a few more Raul Ibanezes. I agree that we shouldn’t trade Reed and Morse for him, but only because I don’t believe getting Huff now is better than keeping Reed long-term. Huff might be a short-term solution. But you yourself were raving about Ibanez last month, so getting another one shouldn’t be that unappealing.
Aubrey Huff is due $7.5 million next year. A reasonable expectation for him as a left fielder would be that he would create something like 30 runs over replacement with his bat and give up 10 with his glove. So, he’s +20 runs for $7.5 million.
Snelling is due $316,000 next year. A reasonable expectation would be that he creates 15 runs with his bat and 0 with his glove. So, he’s +15 runs for $316,000.
You want to pay $7.2 million for 5 runs?
Where do you get +30 on hitting and -10 on defense?
YEAR VORP DEF
2002 +43 -5 44 games at 1B (most of the rest at DH)
2003 +65 -7 95 games at RF (positive at other positions)
2004 +51 -5 79 games at 3B (positive at other positions)
These are from BP’s Pecota Card. Perhaps you’re using a different metric. His first 3 months of 2005 were off of his previous performance but he’s hitting the crap out of the ball in July and rapidly moving his averages for the year back to his career norms.
Dave,
Are we going to see Choo this year? What are your thoughts on him. If I remember right he had a gun. If he doesn’t have a place on he team as a hitter any chance he will end up another Soriano. A mid 90’s lefthander is obviously valuable in the penn. The M’s are hoping that Thorton pans out and Choo has the same stuff.
Rusty,
I will agree with you I like Huff, but if we have to pay him 7.5 and trade something of value for him, it seems like a lot. Look what TB was rumored to get for him and Baez (week closer). 3 top notch prospects.
143.
Currently we have a logjam at some of our prospect positions. So trading some extra infielders, outfielders, pitchers is not always such a bad thing in this regard. Plus, by trading for a Huff caliber player, we don’t have to sign one as a free agent thereby giving up a #1 draft choice. It shuffles the deck a little bit. Presumably, you get good prospects from the draft that have an MLB ETA of 2-3 years later.
We’re going to have extra budget to either trade for players or sign as free agents. If the entire budget is used up on improving our starting rotation without even $1 million to spare, then of course, I don’t want to trade for Huff in that scenario.
The Ms do need to think seriously about getting a power bat in LF to boost overall power numbers. But if we are arguing around whether or not we consider Huff a reasonable answer for a “power” LF, then we are in serious trouble. Huff is 28, has 13 HR, and is hitting .270. That makes him a nifty player, but nothing more.
#144
I don’t disagree with you. None of the FA starting pitchers get me too excited so those infielders will probably need to be used to get a SP of value. Huff would be great especially left handed but
may not be worth what it takes to pay and get him in my opinion
I would love to see Guardado go to the Yanks in a package for Pavano. Bavasi has showed he likes power arms so our bullpen should be pretty good in the years to come especially with Soriano coming back.
#145
Huff is hitting .320 with 8 homers and 25 RBIs in the last month. Hit .297 with 29 and 104 last year, thats pretty good and would help from the left side. Definately atleast someone the M’s should consider for the right price.
I see no reason to believe that Aubrey Huff will outplay Chris Snelling over the next three seasons, after which, I’d be surprised if Huff was still even a useful major league player. The salary concern makes that a total win in favor of Snelling. There’s no way I’d acquire Huff to displace Snelling. No way.
Choo isn’t ready for the majors. He’s probably a fourth OF in the show. He’s got some issues with his swing. But the M’s won’t convert him to the mound. They’d run into problems with options and have to try to keep him on the major league roster, and that’s no place to learn to pitch.
I hope your right about Snelling, I just don’t have the same feeling, but your the man.
On Choo was just thinking that we should do something with that Left arm. It doesn’t help us in Tacoma.
I would just love for the M’s to take that money and go get some more international prospects. Atleast they could show the fans that they weren’t just going to pocket the saved money ala Sasaki.
A few years ago we went outside the budget I presume to get a young Venezuelan pitcher named Hernandez for 700k. Has anybody heard about him??? I know we miss on alot of players as everyone else does but you have to invest in these young players if you want to restock your farm system.
Snelling’s line in Tacoma this year, when translated to an MLE, comes out something like .315/.395/.480. That’s probably a bit too high, as I think Snelling’s a bit over his head down there, but .290/.375/.450 is a totally reasonable expectation for him next year.
A few years ago we went outside the budget I presume to get a young Venezuelan pitcher named Hernandez…
Why would you presume that?
It’s not really LF or Doyle that I’m worried about when contemplating trading for Huff. Really the problem is likely be CF. If this is the best Reed has to offer then it’s a bad deal to have CF capable guys at the corners when you could move one to play CF and have 2 pretty good power left-handed bats in Huff/Ibanez at LF/DH.
#153, you’re going to write off reed based on his first year in the big leagues? smooth. reed has been doing great on defense, and on hitting it’s not abnormal for a player (think arod) to have a rough first year around. i’d much rather have him hit this way this year, than win the ROY and have a sophmore slump next year.
besides, TB was saying they weren’t trading unless teams put their best prospect on the block. would you trade the m’s best prospect for huff?
#155. Don’t jump to conclusions. I said I was worried. I wasn’t “writing him off”. Those are your words. I qualifed my criticism of him by saying if this is the best that we can expect of him, then we might look to other plans. If he can improve on this year’s numbers then perhaps we’ll be alright in CF. But he has a ways to go.
Last year in 58 AB’s he hit .397/.470/.466. Most of those numbers were propped up by an unsustainable singles rate.
This year in 322 AB’s he has hit .255/.320/.345, and Bloomquist is stealing at bats from him.
I don’t understand the Arod comparison…
1994 .204/.241/.204 in 54 AB’s
1995 .232/.264/.408 in 142 AB’s
1996 .358/.414/.631 in 601 AB’s
Which first year are you refering to? By the time ARod was at his 380th MLB at bat, as Jeremy is, he was hitting the snot out of the ball.
Probably not, no.
I bet Lou would have pumped for Doyle to go to TB in a Huff deal.
I think the bottom line is this- do you think this lineup is going to be near the top of the league in runs scored (top 5)?
Ichiro
Reed
Beltre
Sexson
Ibañez
Doyle
Lopez or Morse
Torrealba/Rivera
Betancourt
If you do, you probably don’t need Huff. (I suspect that even if we invest in pitching it’s unlikely we’ll be a top-5 staff in 2006, so I put it in terms of offense).
If you don’t, it’s not likely we contend- so how do you fix it?
EC, raw runs scored, or park adjusted? I don’t think that lineup will be top 5 overall, but after adjusting for Safeco I think it could be a top 5 offense, or at least very close to it.
I’m basing that off of four assumptions, some more iffy than others:
1) This year is a reasonable indication of what we can expect from Sexson and Ibanez next year.
2) Doyle can stay healthy and perform at or above the level Dave predicted for him above.
3) Reed makes a big jump in production.
4) Beltre at least bridges the gap between his 04 and 05.
I don’t think any of those things are particularly unlikely, although it’s three out of four would probably me most realistic.
If we put together a big-league bench for once, that would help a lot too. I’m certainly not ready to speculate that that will happen though.
Re: 157. In point #4 I meant “splits the difference” between 04 and 05, not actually returns to 04 production. Sorry if that was a bit unclear.
That’s fair enough, considering park effects- but I’m not as convinced that 3 of 4 are going to happen. Ibañez is producing well this year, but he’s also 33, and gravity’s going to kick in at some point. Sexson’s having a career year this year, and Reed might take a while to get going.
I think getting improvement out of Beltre and Doyle performing above Winn are probably the safest assumptions- but even then, Doyle’s got injury history and Beltre’s 2005 is not out of context for his career. He might be the new Bret Boone and only show up as an MVP candidate for 3-4 years out of his career.
Another bat might help with that…but where does said bat go?
Dave,
I am a fan so I admit I can only assume/speculate. If Hernandez was not a “outside the box” signing then what kind of budget would the M’s have for international talent on a yearly basis?
It seems to me that the M’s roughly budgeted 90million to start the season for the team, and they have now saved a few million for the rest of the years salaries, so why wouldn’t they invest that back into their future talent?